Moves you may have missed. Or not cared about.

You folks have probably read all that there is to read on Alfonso Soriano and Daisuke Matsuzaka, so there probably isn’t all that much more I can add to the discussion. There have been some lesser moves that may make a difference in 2007. And moves that may not.

Atlanta acquires reliever Rafael Soriano from Seattle for starter Horacio Ramirez.

Normally, it’s a good idea to pick up a starting pitcher in exchange for a reliever. This is one of those exceptions, and John Schuerholz may have quietly picked up one of the biggest steals of the offseason. Three years removed from arm surgery, Soriano threw 60 innings in relief for Seattle, with a 2.25 ERA, 65 strikeouts, and only 21 walks. Perhaps the Mariners were scared off by the season ending concussion, and feared that they may have a Matt Clement situation. However, all reports are that Soriano is throwing comfortably, and Clements demise seems to be as much about arm trouble as it was the Carl Crawford liner off the side of the head in 2005. Only three years ago, scouts named Soriano the most likely reliever to become the next Johan Santana, making the transfer from little known setup man to stud starter, because of his spectacular stuff. The Braves seem set on having Soriano in the bullpen though, which is fine as well—he’s immediately the most talented reliever they’ve had since John Smoltz. With the problems the Braves have had a closer since Smoltz moved back to the rotation, Soriano is a great bet to assume the 9^th inning role, and score at least 35 saves. Fantasy players take note, this is one of your sleepers for next year.

If the Mariners did feel Soriano was a risk, perhaps it would’ve made sense to try to acquire an innings eater type, who could rack up a solid season in Safeco Field. However, Ramirez is likely a bigger injury risk than Soriano, while not being nearly as good a pitcher. Ramirez has failed to reach 80 innings in two of the last three seasons with a variety of arm troubles. The season he stayed healthy, he had a 4.63 ERA in 202 innings, with only 80 strikeouts, 67 walks, and 31 homers allowed. Safeco will help depress that homer number, but in the more patient American League, teams like the A’s and Rangers who he will see several times will take advantage of his inabilility to put people away. Those poor K/BB numbers in the NL are likely to translate even worse into the AL.

So, while both players may offer the same injury risk, Soriano offers the reward of being an elite closer, while Ramirez, at best, isn’t likely to replace the production of Gil Meche. Another poor move in what has been a pretty awful tenure by Mariners GM Bill Bavasi.

Royals sign pitcher Gil Meche for 5 years, $55M.

Almost every offseason, a really really bad team signs a player who isn’t good to a huge contract, and there is a glut of stories praising them for being willing to show fans they care by being willing to spend money. It’s all a crock. Fans don’t really care, during the season, whether or not their team has spent money. They care whether or not their team is winning.

Signing Gil Meche does not show a commitment to winning. It shows a commitment to spending money. In four years since his return from injury, Meche has not had a park-adjusted ERA above league average even once. On the ERA+ scare, where 100 is average, he’s scored a 97, 86, 85 and 97. Meche turned 28 in September, and pitchers suddenly figuring it out at his age is exceedingly rare, unless they’re put with a Leo Mazzone or Ray Miller level pitching coach. Meche is often compared to Jason Schmidt, who DID figure it out at roughly Meche’s age, so I suppose there is hope, but the comparison with Schmidt againt the comparison with the hundreds of similar pitchers who didn’t figure it out at the same time is a pretty strong weight to the negative. The silver lining is the huge jump in his strikeout rate this year, from 5.2 per 9 IP in 2005 to 7.5 per 9 in 2006. If his ERA can begin to follow that improvement, Meche may make the jump to slightly above average pitcher, but the Royals are betting against huge odds that Meche will make such a significant improvement.

Of course, a slightly below average starter is a HUGE improvement for the Royals, whose rotation last year was somewhere in the neighborhood of abysmal. So, the thinking goes, if they have the money, why not spend it to improve their team? Which may be fine, but why commit to five years? If the Royals had signed Meche for a two-year commitment on the chance he breaks out, it wouldn’t be a big deal, as they wouldn’t be tying up funds for the future. But as it is, if Meche doesn’t make that leap, don’t you think they’d want that money to give an extension to Alex Gordon, baseball’s #1 prospect, if Gordon is anything close to the player he looks like? The problem isn’t the $11M on Meche in 2007, as maybe they don’t have any better use for that money. The problem is that $11M in 2010 and 2011, when they should be hoping to be competitive.

Cubs sign Jason Marquis to a 3 year, $21M deal.

Now, this is a deal that looks more reasonable on the surface, but actually may be just as bad as the Meche deal. According to baseball-reference.com, Meche and Marquis are actually each others most comparable players, and both are the same age (Marquis is actually a month older.) The problem is that Marquis is clearly going in the wrong direction. While there are some signs with Meche to at least consider him worth betting on, In the last three years, Marquis has gone into a tailspin. His ERA has gone 3.71, 4.13, 6.02. His K/9IP has gone down: 6.2, 4.3, 4.4. His K/BB have gone down: 1.97, 1.44, 1.28. And his HR/9IP have gone up: 1.2, 1.3, 1.6.

Marquis is heading backwards in a hurry, and the fact that he’s going to a much worse pitchers park could make things ugly. I’m talking mid 7’s ERA ugly. This is all made worse by the fact that Marquis apparently isn’t all that nice a guy. He badmouthed Mazzone on his way out the door in Atlanta, got progressively worse every season under Duncan, and moaned about not being on the playoff roster for the Cardinals, despite the fact that one of the biggest reasons they won the World Series was the decision not let Jason Marquis pitch in the playoffs. Forget the fact that $7M isn’t all that much money in today’s market. All things considered, I’d take a chance with just about any Triple A journeyman over Marquis. He’s the Cubs headache now.

Offseason begins

This is shaping up to be the most interesting and expensive offseason since 2000-2001. With so many teams being profitable, new revenue sharing money coming in, and so many contracts ending, expect to see some contracts that appear mind boggling. I'll probably go through a list of what teams need sometime next week. Until then, here are some things that have come up.

-Guillermo Mota tested positive for steroids. I've seen a few articles attributing his late season success to performance enhancers, but to my knowledge, it just doesn't work that quickly. Though the argument I've heard that it could've acted as a placebo in the short term, making him feel stronger and alert seems like a valid position. The problem is, we really don't know what kind of effects different performance enhancers really have on baseball players, since there really isn't an ethical experiment that exists where we could measure the effects. We're never going to know everyone or even most of the people who have used in the past, and there's nothing George Bush, George Mitchell or Sherlock Holmes can do about that.

-I'm still of the opinion that 50 games is a bit harsh for a first offense, especially combared to the 10 games one gets for doctoring a baseball, something we DO know the effects of. On the other hand, 100 games for a repeat offender and 150 for a three-timer are too leniant. I'd' probably go with something along the lines of 25 games for the first offense, one season for the second, two seasons for the third, lifetime for the fourth. But that's just me. I'd also be in favor of testing those who do test positive much more frequently. Once someone fails once, they should be subjected to biweekly tests, during the season AND offseason. I'm less inclined to worry about a players privacy rights once they've broken the rules.

It matters little, because the steroid testing is a joke anyway, without blood samples. Heck, from what I've read, hair samples would be more likely to show traces of HGH than urine.

-Every year, the Gold Gloves get more recognition than they should, because the writers just don't take the time to research who the best fielders are at that position. So I suppose I'm exacerbating the problem. Derek Jeter won his third gold glove. A lot of people have taken the time to say that Alex Gonzalez was the player who was actually deserving, and that Jeter won based on name recognition. Neither player was especially close to being the best defensive shortstop in the AL this year. Michael Young had 113 more assists than Jeter (494-381) and 28 more putouts (241-214), despite the fact that Jeter was playing behind baseballs most profound groundball pitcher every fifth day. Assist and putout numbers can be misleading, but rarely when a guy is making 20% more outs in the field than another, from the same position, then it seems likely that he's the better player.

Here's what strikes me. Young makes the play in the hold and has the strong arm, like the other top shortstops in the league. When I watch the Rangers, though, Young has more balls hit directly at him than any shortstop I've seen since Cal Ripken. This isn't luck, not over the course of seasons. Young is just so superior at positioning himself, that he's not making enough spectacular looking plays. It's easier, though, for Gold Glove voters to vote for whoever they did last year.

-Interesting column by Rob Neyer a couple days ago, saying that the Tigers should trade a young arm to get a top bat at first base or DH. It's true that they are going to need to upgrade those positions significantly, playing in the toughest division in baseball. Trading young pitching isn't the way to do it, though. Young, inexpensive, healthy pitching is the most valuable resource in baseball, so unless the Tigers can get a truly elite player in return, it just doesn't seem worth it. First base and DH are the easiest positions to fill with lower-level trades and free agent signings. The Tigers plan is not just to compete in 2007, but also for years beyond. At this point, even if they do regress to 85 wins next year and miss the playoffs, their long-term outlook is among the best of any in baseball.

Much of the Tigers offseason plan likely revolves around Carlos Guillen. If they feel he can be more productive and be in the lineup more often by moving him off of shortstop, then that's an easy choice. He hits like a good corner infielder, so it's not like they'd get the usual hit from a team trying to move a shortstop there. Plus, he'd probably have the range to be a Gold Glove level 1B with some work. All things equal, their lineup is better with him at SS, as they'll be more likely to find an effective 1B than SS on the open market. If he knees won't hold, though, then all things aren't equal.

Post Game 2 World Series Notes

-Was Kenny Rogers cheating? Goodness, it certainly looks that way. I find it hard to believe that he'd have the same clump of dirt on the same place on his hand for two different games. And if it wasn't something illegal, why did he wash it off? It's really a non-issue at this point, though. There's nothing LaRussa can say about it without sounding like sour grapes, and so far he's been smart enough to avoid anything more than intentionally vague comments.

-The Cardinals need to do a better job of getting people on base ahead of Albert Pujols. So far he's been up eight times with a grand total of two people on base. Eckstein has been discussed before, and they're pretty clearly not going to move him, but they've used the likes of Scott Spiezio and Preston Wilson in the #2 spot so far this postseason. To me, Edmonds should be the top candidate. He gets on base, can threaten you with homer and double power, and still has enough speed to score from first on a double. More importantly though, he hits into very few double plays, a very important role for a two-spot, and one that managers don't seem to consider enough.

-Why Doug Jones in the 9th in Game 2? I'm not saying it because of the result, it just seems to me to be another situation of a manager managing to the save statistic, rather than the save statistic being an accurate reflection. Leyland had two better options, in my mind. The first is to go with Rogers, and give the entire bullpen a night off. If he wanted to go to the pen, though, why not Zumaya? He's already been up three times, and he's a guy who needed to work. Surely it would have made sense for the Tigers to see how his wrist would respond in that role, rather than in a higher leverage situation later on in the series. Instead, Jones got the work on consecutive days.

-For anyone asking, yes, it is perfectly acceptable to that when a Yankee fan says they need to trade A-Rod for someone who is "clutch in the playoffs," you suggest trading him for Jeff Weaver or Kenny Rogers.

-Despite the Cardinals problems with lefties, I still don't like the choice for the Tigers to go with Robertson rather than Bonderman in game 3 (and therefore, if necessary, game 7). The Cardinals may have problems with lefties, but Bonderman is the strikeout guy and is the one pitching better so far this postseason. I'm willing to give Leyland the benefit of the doubt on this one, though.

-Talking too much about players being "clutch" based on one or two hits leads to things like Yadier Molina (.216/.264/.329 against RHP this year) being allowed to bat with his team down by two with the bases loaded in the bottom of the ninth in game two of the World Series, with Chris Duncan (.318/.390/.644 against RHP) sitting on the bench.

-How Taguchi is he?

-I'm worried that I might blow out my shoulder just by watching Fernando Rodney's delivery.

-Carlos Guillen needs to bat higher than 5th. He's the best hitter on the Tigers. By a lot. Talk of him having to move off a SS in the future isn't as big a problem as it may seem, because he hits like a first baseman. If it weren't for durability concerns, I'd probably rate him as the best hitting shortstop in the game. In 90 less PA's than Jeter (who had by far his best year since 1999), he had two more doubles, 2 more triples, 14 more homers, two more walks 15 less strikeouts (a rate of about 1 per 100 less than Jeter). Yet Jeter will probably win the MVP, and Guillen will finish around 8th. Anyway, through two games of the World Series, Guillen is at .714/.750/1.143, and through the playoffs, he's .432/.488/.703. And the Mariners traded him for Ramon Santiago. Ouch.

-I'm higher on Jeff Weaver's chances for next year after his mediocre performance in Game 2 than I was after his good outings in the division series and the NLCS. For a long time, the book on Weaver was that he was fine once he got into a groove, but would blow up as soon as trouble began. On Sunday, when he got in trouble, he wasn't yelling into his glove or any of the stuff we'd come to expect from him over the years. He just worked through and made good pitches. He'd be smart to resign with the Cardinals, as it's becoming pretty clear that Duncan has connected with him.

-The term "must-win" is overused in the playoffs, but a loss in game 3 with Carpenter pitching would hurt the Cardinals much more than the Tigers, who have the significant edge in starting pitchers the following two nights. Even losing home-field advantage, I still favor the Tigers, because their pitching is so strong, and because I don't think the Cardinals will put enough people on base for Pujols to allow him to win the series on his own.

Playoff Predictions

I hate to whine, but do the Yankees really need to be in the prime time slot every single night? World Series ratings this decade have shown pretty conclusively that the Yankees do NOT draw on a national level, as the 2004 and 2002 series have garnered the highest ratings, while the 2000 and 2003 have had the worst. Baseball fans don't want to hear about "Yankee mystique" every night, they want to see the best matchups. Today's best matchup is Santana against Zito, which will be on at 10:00 am for those of you who live in the A's market.

This isn't mindless Yankee bashing. One of the reasons the NFL has surpassed MLB is because of marketing. This is often seen as the marketing of individuals, but the NFL does a superior marketing of all its teams, as well. Flip on Fox's Sunday afternoon game. I would venture to guess, that, over a 16 week season, their 4:00 games will feature between 16 and 24 different teams. Same with Sunday Night Football. Now, go to Fox's Saturday afternoon baseball. It's the Red Sox or Yankees or a Chicago team every single week. 2005 was the worst. Every other weekend, we had the Red Sox against the Yankees both on Fox Saturday, and again on ESPN Sunday Night.

There are marketable personalities and compelling stories outside of these three markets, but MLB and the networks don't seem terribly interested in lining them up.

On to the predictions...


Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets.

Have you seen the Mets starting rotation for this series? Take out John Maine, and Tom Glavine, Orlando Hernandez and Steve Trachsel still have a combined age of roughly 195. Without Pedro, this is a very unimpressive rotation, but the loss of Pedro would be a bigger deal if Pedro had been a good pitcher this season. From mid-May on, he was alternately injured and ineffective, and the Mets still had the most wins in the National League.

The Dodgers rotation is strong. Lowe and Penny were a good 1-2 combination all season, and Maddux was excellent down the stretch.

On paper, the two teams match up pretty evenly, but my inclination right now is to go with the Mets. Carlos Beltran had one of the best postseasons in recent memory in 2004, nearly single-handedly carrying the Astros all the way to a Game 7 against a much stronger Cardinals team. He's coming off of a huge season, and, when you factor in his strong CF defense, he's arguably the best player in baseball.

Down the lineup, the Mets have the star power in Beltran and Wright, as well as two other very good players in Carlos Delgado and the miscast-but-still-valuable Jose Reyes. Their depth is a concern, but Randolph doesn't use his bench as much as some other NL managers. Meanwhile, with Wagner, Heilman, Feliciano and Bradford, the Mets have a very strong bullpen, with Heilman especially valuable in a postseason series because of his ability to pitch multiple innings.

The Dodgers lineup is balanced, but Nomar Garciaparra and Jeff Kent are no longer stars. Leftfielder Andre Ethier and catcher Russell Martin, two rookies who were so valuable to Los Angeles throughout the summer, seemed to fade in September, particularly Ethier.

Given the Mets stronger bullpen and defense, and the fact that they seem to have players more likely to carry the team, I'm giving them the very narrow edge in the Series.
Mets def. Dodgers, 3-2.

San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals have backed into the playoffs, and they're a great bet to back out pretty quickly, even against the mediocre Padres. The Cards are basically a three man team, and while Pujols is baseballs best hitter, and while Carpenter may be the NL's best starter, that's just not going to be enough. In fact, this is probably the worst team to find its way into the playoffs since the expanded divisions in 1995. (Now that I've said that, considering my other predictions for this year, I'd encourage every single person who's going to read this--yes, both of you--to wager double your net worth on the Cardinals. I've just made them a can't lose).

The Cardinals chances are best summed up in the fact that Jeff Weaver is going to start Game 2 for them. I can think of about 200 pitchers in baseball that I'd prefer to start a playoff game. The combination of Weaver being a mess under pressure, and not all that good in the first place doesn't make for a great combination.

The Padres will get through on strong starting pitching and enough fair hitters to light up the stiffs that St. Louis will throw out there.
Padres def. Cardinals, 3-1.

Minnesota Twins vs. Oakland A's

The Twins are a trendy pick right now, and it's easy to see why. They have likeable, good young players, the best pitcher in baseball, and were on fire in the second half. Consider me on the bandwagon. Joe Mauer is my MVP this year, one of baseballs best hitters playing the hardest defensive position in baseball. And, unlike Victor Martinez, Mauer is a plus at the position--in fact, he's such a plus, he has a good chance to win the Gold Glove. Justin Morneau isn't the league MVP, but he may win because of voters obsession with RBI. He is a devestating young hitter, though, likely one of the top 10 in the American League. Joe Nathan could well be THE player to break out on the national scene, one of the elite closers in baseball. And Johan Santana is baseball's best pitcher by a pretty huge margin.

What does Oakland have? A fairly good team, if not one that looks like a championship contender. Frank Thomas worked himself into the MVP race in the second half with a series of clutch homers, and their pitching staff is a force to be reckoned with, if Rich Harden is healthy. Unfortunately, Rich Harden didn't appear healthy in his last start, Barry Zito didn't have a great second half, and for reasons I can't really comprehend, Esteban Loiaiza is starting game 2, ahead of Danny Haren.

Minnesota has the better lineup, better defense, better bullpen, and, if not better starters, then a more solidified starting rotation heading into this series. It's a best of five, so anything can happen, and the A's are due a bit of luck, but there's no rational reason to pick against the Twins here.
Twins def. A's, 3-0.

New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers

After sitting in first place nearly all season long, the Tigers fell out on the very last day of the season, losing in extra innings to the Kansas City Royals, of all teams. The Tigers lineup was in such disarray in the final month that they actually had Neifi Perez, who has a .298 career OBP, leading off.

The Tigers pitching staff is the real deal, though. Verlander, Robertson, Rogers and Bonderman is the best front four in the major leagues. As important as that is made to be, how many World Series did the Braves win during their run? Like those Braves teams, these Tigers have great starting pitching, great defense, an underrated bullpen, but a bit of a mismatched lineup. Only Carlos Guillen had a VORP of over 30--though it was WELL over 30, at 67.0. After that, Magglio Ordonez, Curtis Granderson, Ivan Rodriguez and Marcus Thames were the only players in the 20's. They're not a good team at getting on base, finishing 12th in the AL with a .329 OBP, behind the much-maligned Royal offense.

Meanwhile, the Yankees are sort of the complete opposite--the best team in the AL at getting on base and scoring runs, but not so great at keeping the other guys from scoring. Chien-Ming Wang somehow turned his hard slider, 76 strikeouts and some smoke and mirrors into 19 wins. There was talk about whether the Yankees were putting softer dirt around home plate in his starts to make his grounders slower in getting to the holes. If that is the case, it worked, as he had a 3.03 at home, while putting up only a 4.35 on the road. After Wang, the rotation is shaky. Mussina battled injuries and inconsistency in the second half after an excellent start to the season. Randy Johnson continued his descent from "Hall of Fame stud" to "mediocre innings eater with a temper." He's apparently going to try to pitch through a herniated disc. That doesn't sound like a great idea for either him or the team, but I'm not a doctor.

It seems to me that the Yankees have too much offense, though the Johnson injury has evened the odds quite a bit. I feel like Game 1 is huge in this series, for both teams. Don't like the matchup, though. Wang tends to succeed most against impatient teams that will drill first pitch sliders into the ground. The Tigers fit that profile.
Yankees def. Tigers, 3-2

From there...
Twins def. Yankees, 4-2
Mets def. Padres, 4-2

Twins def. Mets, 4-1.

From a non-rooting standpoint, Twins against Yankees is very compelling. If you had to pick one thing that the Yankees do well, it would be their hitters ability to be patient and get ahead in counts in order to get good pitches to hit. If you had to pick one thing the Twins do well, it would be their pitchers ability to throw strikes early and get hitters into tough counts. Always fun to see two teams that match up like that.

Also, as I said above, Wang was much better in New York than on the road. If the Yankees series with the Tigers goes to five games, Wang will be starting that Game 5. Unless the Yankees get out to a huge early lead, Wang may not be available until Game 3 of the ALCS. Something to watch for.

As far as the national league goes, the Padres are a well-rounded team, but I can't see them getting to World Series with that lineup unless Peavy starts pitching like an ace again. I have to think that whichever team comes out of the Dodgers-Mets series is going to be the heavy favorite to be Quadruple-A champ.

Trading Season Begins

After what seems like a year and a half of rumors, Aubrey Huff was finally traded today. The Devil Rays all-time leader in just about every hitting category will get a taste of his first pennant race, going to the Houston Astros for two Double A players, SS Ben Zobrist and P Mitch Talbot.

The Astros are only 3.5 games out of the wild card at the All-Star break, despite the fourth fewest runs scored in the National League. Acquiring a bat was a major priority, and Huff will move straight into the right field spot that Jason Lane had been occupying. Four of the eight starting position players for the Astros had negative VORPs in the first half: Lane (-3.7), Willy Tavarez (-6.2), Adam Everett (-7.5) and Brad Ausmus (-8.1). So while Lane hasn't been the worst hitter on the team, he was in the lineup for his bat, unlike the other four. Tavarez's speed is necessary in Minute Maid Park's vast outfield, Ausmus is the unofficial team captain, and Everett has probably surpassed Andruw Jones as the best defensive player in basball, coming in an Ozzie Smith-esque 21 runs above replacement in the first half. So Lane was the obvious choice to go. Lane's season has certainly been a disappointment. Following what appeared to be a breakout, Lane had serious trouble making contant, walking, striking out, or getting hit by a pitch in 94 of his 224 plate appearances.

At first glance, Huff seems to have fallen off his 2002-04 peak, but upon closer look, he may be able to play near that level. After his terrible slump througout 2005, Huff started slowly, going 4 for 22 before going to the DL. On June 9th, Huff was still struggling badly, hitting .178/.272/.264 with only two home runs. In the month since, he's hit .416 with six homers. It's possible that this run has been a fluke, and Huff won't be the same player he was two years ago, but even 2005 Aubrey Huff, as mediocre as it was, will be an improvement over 2006 Jason Lane.

Will this get the Astros back to the playoffs? Alone, of course not. If Clemens can pitch like a #2, if Pettitte can come back to form, if Ensberg snaps out of his slump, and if Everett and Tavarez start providing any offense at all, then this move could be what puts them over the top. You can make a strong case that, as things stand, the Astros have the third best team, top to bottom, in the NL. While they stand only 3.5 games behind Los Angeles for the wild card, there are another four teams in between them. If the Astros can take care of the Reds and Brewers in head to head play, the NL West teams very well may beat on each other enough for the Astros to make a run.