Congratulations Tim!
It took a little while - this previous post on the subject seems like a long, long time ago - but Tim Wakefield got a little help and won his 200th career game. The win came at an opportune time as well, as the Sox were able to put an important game between themselves and the Tampa Bay Rays in the wild card chase, increasing their lead back to 4 games.
Appropriately, the win came in proper Tim Wakefield fashion - a game where he wasn't dominant, but instead held on after a shaky start, settled in, and gave the team innings they had not been getting recently. During their five game losing streak, their starting pitchers pitched into the 6th inning zero times. It's pretty impossible to win that way, even with the potent Red Sox offense - they averaged 4.4 runs during that losing streak, down from their season average, but still a number that would place them 6th in the league.
After giving up 5 runs in three innings, Sox fans could be forgiven for panicking a bit, but Wakefield's knuckler started knuckling, and he pitched three shutout innings, getting them through the 6th . Meanwhile, Blue Jays pitching wasn't fooling the Red Sox lineup, and when Alfredo Aceves was brought in to start the 7th, the lead was 10-5.
Let's make an important distinction here. Wakefield getting the win even though his numbers weren't stellar doesn't mean he "knows how to win" in some innate way. What IS valuable, though, and has been throughout his career, has been his ability to adjust even when he's been terrible for a few innings. Pitching for the Red Sox offense, this has enabled him to win a couple extra games here and there, but, more importantly, it allows them to save the bullpen. With a pitcher less capable of making these adjustments on the mound, the Red Sox likely would have needed to bring in Aceves in the third or fourth inning, likely making it impossible for him to pitch the rest of the series. Instead, Aceves wasn't used until the 7th, pitching two easy innings (only 19 pitches) and remaining available for Thursday. He will need to be ready in case Kyle Weiland or Andrew Miller falter again.
In an important way then, Wakefield's night win is a good microcosm of his career. Something less than oustanding, but with a durability and adjustability to make him valuable. And, for the 200th time, victorious.
Showing posts with label milestones. Show all posts
Showing posts with label milestones. Show all posts
Wednesday, September 14, 2011
Tuesday, August 02, 2011
Happy Birthday Tim Wakefield!
Tim Wakefield turns 45 today. Wakefield is the oldest player in baseball, 8 months and 22 days older than Omar Vizquel. Despite not being in the starting rotation to start the season, he is fourth on the team in innings. He doesn't miss many bats anymore, and gives up more homers than ever, but could, conceivably, start a postseason game for the Sox.
I'll be at Fenway tomorrow, as Wakefield takes his second shot at his 200th win. The Indians have a good lineup, though opposing pitcher Carlos Carrasco has struggled mightily recently. That should give the Sox a good chance to slug their way to a win. That would make him the 111 pitcher in history to reach the 200 win milestone. Looking further down the road, Wakefield needs 7 wins to tie Cy Young and Roger Clemens for the most wins in Red Sox history. Looking at the schedule, Wakefield would get 10-11 starts if he were to remain in the rotation, so the chances of that are slim. Still, I will be rooting for him - I've seen Wakefield pitch live (or on TV, for that matter) more than anyone else.
So Happy Birthday #49, and good luck!
I'll be at Fenway tomorrow, as Wakefield takes his second shot at his 200th win. The Indians have a good lineup, though opposing pitcher Carlos Carrasco has struggled mightily recently. That should give the Sox a good chance to slug their way to a win. That would make him the 111 pitcher in history to reach the 200 win milestone. Looking further down the road, Wakefield needs 7 wins to tie Cy Young and Roger Clemens for the most wins in Red Sox history. Looking at the schedule, Wakefield would get 10-11 starts if he were to remain in the rotation, so the chances of that are slim. Still, I will be rooting for him - I've seen Wakefield pitch live (or on TV, for that matter) more than anyone else.
So Happy Birthday #49, and good luck!
Monday, June 20, 2011
Johnny Damon, Milestones, and the Hall of Fame
As you may have heard, last week Johnny Damon collected his 500th double. In doing so, he became just the 11th player all-time to compile 500 doubles, 100 triples, 200 homers, and 2,500 hits, joining George Brett, Lou Gehrig, Goose Goslin, Rogers Hornsby, Willie Mays, Paul Molitor, Stan Musial, Babe Ruth, Al Simmons and Robin Yount. Those other 10 players are in the Hall of Fame, so there have been quite a few articles about how joining this group enhances Damon's Hall of Fame candidacy. What it really means is that Damon is the worst player all time with 500 doubles, 100 triples, 200 homers, and 2,500 hits. By a pretty good margin.
That shouldn't be taken as an insult, of course. None of the players on that list are of the "borderline" Hall of Fame variety. All of them were fantastic, all are among the greatest of all time. What makes this statistic sort of fluky is the fact that, on their own, none of these milestones are especially impressive. Ok, maybe that's not fair - all of them are extremely impressive in the grand scheme of baseball history. None of them, though, put you into the top 50 of all time in their category.
Furthermore, I feel very comfortable calling Damon the "worst" of these players, since he ranks 11 out of 11 in all four categories.
So, I suppose the analysis is that, while previously, only elite players had passed the determined threshold in all of the categories, Damon is the first player of his type to do so - a good player with a well rounded offensive game that was able to contribute in a variety of ways but was historically dominant in none.
To further illustrate the point, I've ranked each 11 player by what percentage they surpassed each mil
This is, of course, a very crude way of calculating greatness. First of all it favors the home run hitters - four players on here more than doubled the 200 HR milestone, while nobody comes close to doubling Damon's total in another category. In general, taking a random milestone and finding out how much a player surpassed it by is going to favor the players who surpassed said milestone by a very significant margin. My counterargument to that is it's fairly crude analysis to consider Damon among these greats because he passed the same milestones. Damon is only more than 6% beyond one of these milestones. Every other players is at least 30% above in one of the categories with the exception of Robin Yount - who is 15% above in all four, and more than 25% higher in three of the four.
Yount, it seems, is the closest thing to a comparable player to Damon, in that he also didn't dominate any one way. He did, however, remain very productive well into his 30's, surpassing all of them significantly, getting to 3142 hits, 251 HR, 583 2B and 126 3B. So I think it's fair to consider Damon a poor man's Robin Yount, which is pretty darn good.
If Damon gets to 3000 hits, my guess is that he'll get to the Hall of Fame. He's never been one of the dominant players in the game, but he has been a very good player for a long time, and, at 350 hits away from 3000 with zero defensive value left, he's going to have to continue to be a useful hitter through 2013 to have a shot. While there are better players not in the Hall - Tim Raines specifically comes to mind - Damon would be far from the worst player to gain enshrinement.
As it is, even if he finishes short of 3000 hits and the Hall, being remembered as a lesser-value Robin Yount who played a crucial role on two World Series champions is a legacy I think most players would be happy with.
Credit: Table made using TABLEIZER as always.
That shouldn't be taken as an insult, of course. None of the players on that list are of the "borderline" Hall of Fame variety. All of them were fantastic, all are among the greatest of all time. What makes this statistic sort of fluky is the fact that, on their own, none of these milestones are especially impressive. Ok, maybe that's not fair - all of them are extremely impressive in the grand scheme of baseball history. None of them, though, put you into the top 50 of all time in their category.
Furthermore, I feel very comfortable calling Damon the "worst" of these players, since he ranks 11 out of 11 in all four categories.
| H | HR | 2B | 3B | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damon | 2646 | 223 | 500 | 102 |
| Brett | 3154 | 317 | 665 | 137 |
| Gehrig | 2721 | 493 | 534 | 163 |
| Goslin | 2735 | 248 | 500 | 173 |
| Hornsby | 2930 | 301 | 541 | 169 |
| Mays | 3283 | 660 | 523 | 140 |
| Molitor | 3319 | 234 | 605 | 114 |
| Musial | 3630 | 475 | 725 | 177 |
| Ruth | 2873 | 714 | 506 | 136 |
| Simmons | 2927 | 307 | 539 | 149 |
| Yount | 3142 | 251 | 583 | 126 |
So, I suppose the analysis is that, while previously, only elite players had passed the determined threshold in all of the categories, Damon is the first player of his type to do so - a good player with a well rounded offensive game that was able to contribute in a variety of ways but was historically dominant in none.
To further illustrate the point, I've ranked each 11 player by what percentage they surpassed each mil
| H% over | HR% over | 2B% over | 3B% over | TOTAL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ruth | 14.92% | 257.00% | 1.20% | 36.00% | 309.12% |
| Mays | 31.32% | 230.00% | 4.60% | 40.00% | 305.92% |
| Musial | 45.20% | 137.50% | 45.00% | 77.00% | 304.70% |
| Gehrig | 8.84% | 146.50% | 6.80% | 63.00% | 225.14% |
| Brett | 26.16% | 58.50% | 33.00% | 37.00% | 154.66% |
| Hornsby | 17.20% | 50.50% | 8.20% | 69.00% | 144.90% |
| Simmons | 17.08% | 53.50% | 7.80% | 49.00% | 127.38% |
| Goslin | 9.40% | 24.00% | 0.00% | 73.00% | 106.40% |
| Yount | 25.68% | 25.50% | 16.60% | 26.00% | 93.78% |
| Molitor | 32.76% | 17.00% | 21.00% | 14.00% | 84.76% |
| Damon | 5.84% | 11.50% | 0.00% | 2.00% | 19.34% |
This is, of course, a very crude way of calculating greatness. First of all it favors the home run hitters - four players on here more than doubled the 200 HR milestone, while nobody comes close to doubling Damon's total in another category. In general, taking a random milestone and finding out how much a player surpassed it by is going to favor the players who surpassed said milestone by a very significant margin. My counterargument to that is it's fairly crude analysis to consider Damon among these greats because he passed the same milestones. Damon is only more than 6% beyond one of these milestones. Every other players is at least 30% above in one of the categories with the exception of Robin Yount - who is 15% above in all four, and more than 25% higher in three of the four.
Yount, it seems, is the closest thing to a comparable player to Damon, in that he also didn't dominate any one way. He did, however, remain very productive well into his 30's, surpassing all of them significantly, getting to 3142 hits, 251 HR, 583 2B and 126 3B. So I think it's fair to consider Damon a poor man's Robin Yount, which is pretty darn good.
If Damon gets to 3000 hits, my guess is that he'll get to the Hall of Fame. He's never been one of the dominant players in the game, but he has been a very good player for a long time, and, at 350 hits away from 3000 with zero defensive value left, he's going to have to continue to be a useful hitter through 2013 to have a shot. While there are better players not in the Hall - Tim Raines specifically comes to mind - Damon would be far from the worst player to gain enshrinement.
As it is, even if he finishes short of 3000 hits and the Hall, being remembered as a lesser-value Robin Yount who played a crucial role on two World Series champions is a legacy I think most players would be happy with.
Credit: Table made using TABLEIZER as always.
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