Ranking the mega-contracts

Over at the Huffington Post, ScottCampbell takes a crack at naming the 10 worst contracts in baseball right now. It’s a valiant effort – there are a lot of bad contracts out there – though at points it lacks some real analysis. See this quote on Albert Pujols:

“Pujols may go down as the greatest right-handed hitter ever, but that still doesn't mean this contract won't end up looking dreadful halfway through.”

First of all, in order to go down as the greatest right-handed hitter ever, Pujols will still need to be producing at age 35, so that sentence contradicts itselfa little bit. Secondly, Campbell is making the common mistake of rating Pujols contract by the fact that he won’t be worth the money on the back end. Isn’t it possible, though, that he’ll be so good at the front end that it will even out? In 2016, we can try to figure out whether he’ll be worth the remaining amount on his contract, but in 2012, we should be evaluating Pujols' contract based on the whole thing, right?

Anyway, Campbell’s list seems solid on its face. It's not like he ranked Pujols' contract as the worst, he had him 8th. I wanted to dig a bit deeper to see if I agree.

I’m taking the 22 mega-contracts, and comparing the amount a player is likely to produce with the amount he’s likely to be worth over that time. I’m defining "mega-contracts: as those with $20M in Average Annual Value remaining, or contracts worth over $100M total. This leaves off Alfonso Soriano and John Lackey, among others. Very simple, really. Some things to consider.

-Past value, under the current contract, is not considered. Mark Teixiera’s excellent 2009 season isn’t relevant to us, only whether he’ll be worth the $112.5M over the next five years.

-A team’s ability to pay a contract will not be considered. We’re considering whether a player is worth that money in a vacuum. It’s a valuable measure, I think – maybe the Red Sox can afford to pay Carl Crawford what he’s making, but is they’re unlikely to be able to trade him. That limits their flexibility.

-It’s important to remember that remaining length is an important consideration. Sure, Vernon Wells won’t be worth $63M over the next three years – but would you rather have Vernon Wells, plus another $53M to spend between 2015-2017, or Jayson Werth?

-These values will change. Ryan Braun and Troy Tulowitzki have backloaded contract extentions that are very team friendly right now. If we do this analysis again in five years, when they’re making huge money in their thirties, maybe they’ll be untradeable albatrosses. This value is about the present, though.

-I’m not a statistician. My attempts to figure how valuable a player will be and how much money that will be worth, in future years, are pretty broad. That said, predicting Troy Tulowitzki’s 2020 season is pretty much a shot in the dark anyway, no matter how advanced a statistical model you’ll be using.

So, with that in mind, here are the 22 MEGA contracts, ranked from best to worst.

1. Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers. 9 years, $131.5M

Expected WAR, 2012-2020: 46.4. Expected value: $234.69M. Value of contract +$103.19 total, +$11.47M annually.

Braun, going into his age 28 season, has averaged 6.1 WAR over his past three years. He’s locked up for the rest of the decade, running through his age-36 season. Testosterone levels aside, my valuation has Braun worth over $140M in the first five years alone. In free agency, he’d have gotten $200M, easily. Great contract for the Brewers.

2. Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado Rockies. 9 years, $152.25M.

Expected WAR, 2012-2020: 49.0. Expected value: $248.32. Value of contract +$96.07M total, +$10.67M annually.

Tulowitzki is by far the best shortstop in baseball right now. Over the total length of his contract, he’s expected to be worth more than any other player. Since he’s making a couple million more annually than Braun, he’s not quite as underpaid, over the length of his contract, but I think the Rockies will take it. Everyone in Denver gets to continue to be a Tulowitness to a future Hall of Famer.

3. Matt Kemp, Los Angeles Dodgers, 8 years, $160M.

Expected WAR, 2012-2019: 46.5. Expected value: $232.75M. Value of contract +$72.75M total, +$9.09M annually.

Kemp, like Tulowitzki, is just heading into his age-27 season. While he hasn’t been quite as consistent as the first two on this list, his 10.0 WAR in 2011 shows what his upside is. His average expected WAR is actually higher than both Braun and Tulowitzki. He’s getting paid quite a bit more than those two, though, so he’s not quite the “steal.” Still, a good bet to be a very team-friendly contract.

4. Adrian Gonzalez, Boston Red Sox, 7 years, $152M.

Expected WAR, 2012-2018: 37.5. Expected value: $186.23M. Value of contract +$34.32M total, +$4.89M annually.

It’s a pretty big dropoff from Kemp to Gonzalez, who is three years older and is paid $1.7M more annually. The Red Sox won’t be complaining, as Gonzalez’s high level of production will continue. Even at the back end of the deal, Gonzalez should still be worth $20M+ per year. With all the criticism of the Red Sox spending spree last winter, locking up Gonzalez to a relatively team friendly contract extension through his prime, rather than letting him hit the open market, was a great move.

5. Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers, 4 years, $86M.

Expected WAR, 2012-2015: 23.0. Expected value: $111.59. Value of contract +$25.59M total, +$6.40M annually.

The main difference between Gonzalez’s contract and Cabrera’s is that the my matrix has Gonzalez continuing to produce above his average contract value beyond 2015. Think about it – at first look, you’d probably rather have Cabrera plus the 3 years and $66M to spend after the 2015 season. However, my matrix has Gonzalez being worth about $71M in those three years. Cabrera, if he’s still producing at something close to his current level, will command more than a 3 year, $66M contract - even going into his age-33 season. So, while Cabrera looks to be a slightly better value annually over the length of his contract, the Red Sox having Gonzalez locked up in future productive years makes his deal more valuable to him.

6. Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers. 3 years, $60M

Expected WAR, 2012-2014: 17.6. Expected value: $84.19M. Value of contract +$24.19M total, +$8.06M annually.

Verlander could blow this projection away, or get hurt. Barring injury, Verlander will either get a massive extension, or sign the biggest ever contract ever for a pitcher after the 2014 season.

7. Roy Halladay, Philadelphia Phillies. 2 years, $40M.

Expected WAR, 2012-2013: 11.9. Expected value: $56.41M. Value of contract +$16.41M total, +$8.2M annually.

Halladay also has a possible $20M vesting option for 2014, which he will probably also be worth. As a 35-year old pitcher, the possible that he’ll run out of gas is there. As the best pitcher alive, the possibility is that it won’t.

8. Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants. 2 years, $40M.

Expected WAR, 2012-2013: 9.5. Expected value: $45.28M. Value of contract +$5.28M total, +$2.64M annually.

A couple weeks ago, when Lincecum signed his extension, I saw the numbers and thought to myself “that seems about right.” Lincecum is not the pitcher of his 2008-2009 peak, but he’s still very, very good. This deal seems sensible for both player and team.

9. C.C. Sabathia, New York Yankees. 5 years, $122M.

Expected WAR, 2012-2016: 22.8. Expected value: $111.13M. Value of contract -$10.88M total, -$2.18M annually.

Sabathia has the biggest contract of any pitcher in baseball, and the highest annual value of any pitcher in the American League. He’s also been remarkably consistent, and usually good. So while he might be slightly overpaid, if you asked Brian Cashman or any Yankees fan “You’re paying Sabathia $24.4M over the next five years – will you be upset if he’s actually worth only about $22.2 annually?” they’ll probably giggle. Of all the big, long-term contracts in baseball, this one is probably the most spot on. Team and player will both probably be happy with the results.

10. Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins. 7 years, $161M

Expected WAR, 2012-2018: 29.5. Expected value: $146.57M. Value of contract -$14.43M total, -$2.06M annually.

And here is the problem with statistical analysis. My computer doesn’t know that Joe Mauer might be broken. In fairness, Joe Mauer probably wouldn’t know if my computer might be broken. Anyhow, this could easily be a franchise crippling disaster of a contract. Here’s hoping he gets healthy and resumes his Hall of Fame-level production, even if he needs to move to 3B or RF in order to do it.

11. Albert Pujols, Los Angeles Angels. 10 years, $240M

Expected WAR, 2012-2021: 43.3. Expected value: $217M. Value of contract -$22.83M total, -$2.28M annually.

Would you pay Albert Pujols $2M more than he’s worth annually, over the next 10 years, in order to have him on your team for the next 5? Think of it this way – my model has him worth about $150M over the next five years. He’s one of the greatest players ever, and he’s still near his prime. Sometimes, in order to get the best player in baseball, you need to promise to pay him for when he’ll no longer be the best player in baseball. The Angels were willing to take that risk, to say “to hell with 2020, we want to be a championship level team for the next five years,” and are paying the greatest player alive accordingly.

12. Cliff Lee, Philadelphia Phillies. 4 years, $109M.

Expected WAR, 2012-2015: 16.2. Expected value: $85.06M. Value of contract -$22.94M total, -$5.99M annually.

Cliff Lee is great, but his postseason performances have somewhat inflated his stock. He’s averaged 5.4 WAR over the last three seasons, and he’s going into his age-33 season. And he’s making a LOT of money – over $27.5M annually. Lee’s good enough that this isn’t a bad contract, but it’s not exactly a steal for the Phillies

Ok, now onto the 10 worst of the mega-contracts!

13. Johan Santana, New York Mets. 2 years, $55M.

Expected WAR, 2012-2013: 4.6. Expected value: $21.76M. Value of contract -$33.23M total, -$16.62M annually.

Ladies and gentlemen, your New York Mets! Santana was better than you remember from 2008 through 2010, and will be unfairly remembered for how much the Mets overpaid for him. Pitching is at a premium, so Santana is likely to be worth something -- just not anything near what the Mets are paying him. Santana will be 33 on opening day, and would need an extremely unlikely career revival to have much of a Hall of Fame case. Still, he should get credit for a fantastic peak. From 2002 through 2010, his lowest ERA+ was 129. His career 142 ERA+ is 11^th all time, ahead of Halladay and Lincecum.

14. Jose Reyes, Miami Marlins. 6 years, $106M.

Expected WAR, 2012-2017: 13.9. Expected value: $68.12M. Value of contract -$37.88M total, -$6.31M annually.

So Reyes, on and off of the disabled list the last three years, is suddenly going to be healthy in his 30’s? I know he’s a dynamic, exciting player, but that’s a lot of money to spend. Reyes has one of the highest variations of anyone on this list. He could be worth his contract with ease, and he could be a 100 game-a-year player. He’s not a great risk at that money, though.

15. Mark Teixeira, New York Yankees. 5 years, $112.5M.

Expected WAR, 2012-2017: 14.8. Expected value: $71.78M. Value of contract -$40.73M total, -$8.15M annually.

Joe Posnanski termed it Tex-pensive – a ridiculous contract for a very good player. What’s funny, though, is that being overpaid will bring most players an unfair amount of criticism – think Barry Zito, Jason Giambi or Darren Dreifort. After all, it wasn’t their choice to be overpaid by foolish bosses. Teixeira, on the other hand, seems to be given credit BECAUSE he is the overpaid Yankees first basemen. "Of course he’s awesome, he got a $180M contract!" The fact that he started well in New York, with a big year in a World Series season, certainly helped his reputation. Sure, the Yankees can afford it, but they’re overpaying a good player, and it inhibits their chances of getting a better one. He’s a $14-18M player, but getting paid over $22M. When Joey Votto becomes a free agent, remember that the Yankees instead are overpaying a first basemen who, in 2011, wasn't as good as Casey Kotchman.

16. Barry Zito, San Francisco Giants. 2 years, $46M

Expected WAR, 2012-2013: 0.7. Expected value: $3.21M. Value of contract -$42.79M total, -$21.4M annually.

It’s almost over. Per year, he’s the most overpaid player in baseball. He just has the advantage that he’s only getting overpaid over the next two years. By percentage of remaining contract expected to be earned, Zito rankes dead last on this list, at less than 7%. Oof.

17. Prince Fielder, Detroit Tigers. 9 years, $214M

Expected WAR, 2012-2020: 33.5. Expected value: $168.9M. Value of contract -$45.10M total, -$5.01M annually.

Like Teixeira, Fielder is a very good player getting paid like a franchise-changing one. He’s younger than Pujols and Gonzalez, yes, but he’s just not as good. I don’t know how his body will age, and the computer doesn’t seem to want to speculate on it. What it does tell us is that a 7 year, $145M contract would’ve been totally reasonable. Overpaying Fielder, on its own, isn’t so bad. Overpaying him at the expense of being able to resign Miguel Cabrera or Justin Verlander could be. We’ll see how this plays out.

18. Vernon Wells, Los Angeles Angels. 3 years, $63M.

Expected WAR, 2012-2013: 2.0. Expected value: $9.5M. Value of contract -$53.5M total, -$17.83M annually.

Like Zito, the only thing keeping this from being lower on the list is that it will end sort of soon. This contract is a disaster, and taking it on probably got Tony Reagins fired. 

19. Carl Crawford, Boston Red Sox. 6 years, $128M.

 Expected WAR, 2012-2017: 14.9. Expected value: $72.95M. Value of contract -$55.06M total, -$9.18M annually.

You could easily argue that this contract is much better than Wells’s. Sure, Crawford is more overpaid, but looks likely to give some production for his overpayment – Crawford looks to earn about 56% of his contract, Wells only about 15% of his. Still, in sheer amount, Crawford looks to be more overpaid over the next six years than Wells will be over the next three.

20. Jayson Werth, Washington Nationals. 6 years, $116M.

Expected WAR, 2012-2017: 10.6. Expected value: $51.04M. Value of contract -$64.97M total, -$10.83M annually.

Whenever Nick Cafardo tells us that the Red Sox should’ve signed Werth rather than Crawford, and you shake your head, this is why. Fortunately, Werth’s contract will come off the books before Bryce Harper becomes a free agent.

21. Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies. 5 years, $125M.

Expected WAR, 2012-2016: 10.0. Expected value: $51.04M. Value of contract -$48.09M total, -$15.38M annually.

Howard has averaged 3.0 WAR between his  from ages 29-31. What will a player like that be worth from 32-36? This doesn’t even recognize Howard’s knee injury. This will, of course, make any Phillies fan who reads this want to punch me in the face, because I’m obviously a jerk who doesn’t care about intangibles. Oh well. The difference between Howard’s value, even healthy, and Carlos Pena’s, is almost negligible.

22, and the worst contract in baseball. Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees. 6 years, $143.

Expected WAR, 2012-2017: 3.3. Expected value: $14.78M. Value of contract -$128.23M total, -$21.37M annually.

You would think that, as a Red Sox fan, writing that would make me giddy. It does. Rodriguez stats are so low because he’s getting paid through his age 41 season, where he’s projected to be a good bit below replacement level. If he’s, say, released after the 2015 season, he’ll actually hurt the Yankees less. You’ll see a lot of commentators talking about how Rodriguez is “in the best shape of his life” and is primed for a comeback season. When you see that, remember that his last great season was 2007, which is the same year that Barry Bonds had his last great season. Rodriguez will probably be worth more than 3.3 wins for the rest of his contract – my formula is probably too hard on him. He’s also not going to be worth the 27 wins he’d need to be to earn his contract.Of course, THIS is what people like Campbell worry about when they see Pujols' contract. He should fear not. Pujols has played a less demanding defensive position than Rodriguez did, and, for elite hitters in their 30's, Rodriguez's drop-off is more sudden that other all-time greats like Mays, Aaron and Williams. A-Rod simply isn't a fair comparison for Pujols.

Hall of Fame post revisited

A couple weeks ago, I wrote a post regarding the Hall of Fame, specifically regarding the candidacies of the prominent first basemen on the current ballot: Jeff Bagwell, Rafael Palmeiro, and Mark McGwire. While I generally felt good about the final result - definitive yes to Bagwell, debatable yes to Palmeiro, debatable no to McGwire - one of the methods I used to measure sort of bugged me, so I wanted to take a chance to re-examine and update my results.

Initially, I measured the number of seasons each of the players had with a WAR over 10, 8, 5 and 3. I used these values because they seem like good cutoff points. Why, though? I'm not sure, really, and as I re-read my post, they just seemed too... arbitrary. Of course, the whole process is a bit arbitrary. Drawing the line from what makes a Hall of Famer and what doesn't is ENTIRELY the preference of the person making that choice. If you're a "small Hall of Fame" voter, and believes that the Hall should only be for the Ruth/Mays/Aaron/Williams types, and you vote that way consistently, that's fine. As long as someone puts thought and effort into their methodology and is consistent with their standards, then that's all I can ask for.

However, "consistent" shouldn't mean "unchanging" in this case. As new information becomes available, of course it should be considered. The case I've used a few times this year is regarding Mike Fast's work at Baseball Prospectus regarding catcher defense. If we discover new information, we should use it. At the same time, if a methodology is developed for rating players, and a flaw is found in that, it's ok - in fact, it's necessary - to change it.

So I went back through my study, and realized these WAR season scores were just TOO arbitrary. Why was I drawing the lines where I was? No reason - they just seemed like good places to draw lines. However, with only one season of a first baseman having a 10+ WAR in our study, maybe that's too arbitrary? So I decided to put every season of our 25 players back into a spreadsheet, and instead of WARs of 10, 8. 5 and 3 as dividers, I'd use percentiles - the 99th, 90th, 75th and 50th.

This isn't perfect. It includes seasons at the beginning and end of careers when players weren't regulars or ended up stopping play. Still, it is BETTER. "Meliora" - that's what we're shooting for, right Yellow Jackets? If we can do better, then we should, even if better still isn't perfect.

Once completed, we're left with 396, sorted by WAR. the 99th percentile is 8.8, the 90th is 5.9, the 75th is 4.1 and the 50th is 2.0. These are still technically arbitrary cutoffs, of course - they're just drawn where they are for a reason.

Player	99	90	75	50	SUM
Thomas, Frank	0	6	9	15	30
Bagwell, Jeff	1	5	11	13	30
Thome, Jim	0	5	9	13	27
Palmeiro, Rafael	0	3	8	14	25
Helton, Todd	1	5	7	12	25
McGwire, Mark	0	3	9	11	23
Clark, Will	1	2	6	12	21
Giambi, Jason	1	4	6	8	19
McGriff, Fred	0	2	6	10	18
Olerud, John	0	2	6	10	18
Grace, Mark	0	0	5	12	17
Delgado, Carlos	0	2	4	10	16
Lee, Derrek	0	0	3	7	10
Joyner, Wally	0	0	1	9	10
Vaughn, Mo	0	0	3	6	9
Galarraga, Andres	0	0	2	6	8
Konerko, Todd	0	0	1	5	6
Martinez, Tino	0	0	2	4	6
Clark, Tony	0	0	0	4	4
Segui, David	0	0	0	4	4
Casey, Sean	0	0	0	3	3
Karros, Eric	0	0	0	3	3
Morris, Hal	0	0	0	3	3
Young, Kevin	0	0	1	2	3
Snow, JT	0	0	0	2	2

Compare this to our chart in our original post - Frank Thomas, who had no 8+ WAR seasons, had six where he's in the 90th percentile - he now gets credit for that. To me, this is just a more sensible measurement.

This changes our final results so slightly that my conclusions are the same. Thomas, Bagwell and Thome are still the definite choices, arguments can be made for Palmeiro and Helton, and McGwire and Giambi are, again too far off:

Player	H	HR	TB	TOB	WAR	10-peark	3-peak	5 Best	Seasons	TOTAL
Thomas, Frank	3	4	3	2	2	2	4	4	1.5	31.5
Bagwell, Jeff	7	7	5	4	1	1	2	1	1.5	32.5
Thome, Jim	8	1	2	3	3	3	6	5	3	43
Palmeiro, Rafael	1	3	1	1	4	6	10	9	4.5	51.5
Helton, Todd	5	11	7	6	6	4	3	3	4.5	67.5
McGwire, Mark	18	2	10	13	5	7	7.5	7	6	90.5
Giambi, Jason	15	8	9	9	9	5	1	2	8	93
McGriff, Fred	2	5	4	5	10	11	9	10	9.5	95.5
Clark, Will	10	15.5	13	11	7	9	5	8	7	106.5
Olerud, John	9	17	14	7	8	8	7.5	6	9.5	110
Delgado, Carlos	12	6	8	10	12	10	11	11	12	128
Grace, Mark	4	21	12	8	11	12	13	12	11	137
Galarraga, Andres	6	9	6	12	15	18	15	14	16	156
Lee, Derrek	14	13	15	16	14	13	14	15	13.5	169.5
Joyner, Wally	11	19	17	14	13	15	18	16	13.5	175.5
Konerko, Todd	13	10	11	15	16	17	17	18	17.5	182.5
Vaughn, Mo	19	14	19	18	17	14	12	13	15	192
Martinez, Tino	16	12	16	17	18	16	16	17	17.5	199.5
Casey, Sean	20	24	21	21	19	19	21	19	22.5	243.5
Clark, Tony	24	18	22	23	20	21	20	20	19.5	247.5
Karros, Eric	17	15.5	18	20	23	22.5	22	21	22.5	250.5
Snow, JT	21	20	20	19	22	20	24	22	25	259
Morris, Hal	23	25	24	24	21	24	25	23	22.5	274.5
Segui, David	22	23	23	22	24	22.5	23	24	19.5	275
Young, Kevin	25	22	25	25	25	25	19	25	22.5	288.5

Who knows - I may change this even more as I move on. But for now, I feel like it's an improvement over my previous results.

Does Jeff Francis fit with Cincinnati?

On the surface, the Reds signing of Jeff Francis to a minor-league contract seems like no-news news. However, I think he has a chance to play an important role on a team that should probably be considered the favorite in the National League Central.

Ok. A pitcher who went 6-16 with a 4.82 ERA and only 4.5 K/9 isn't generally much in demand, and Francis is several years and a major injury removed from his time as a promising young pitcher. The ninth pick in the 2002 draft, Francis rose quickly through the Colorado Rockies organization. Before the 2005 season, Baseball America ranked him the #23 prospect in baseball. In 2006 and 2007, he went 30-20. His ERA was 4.19, a number that might otherwise be mediocre but in Coors Field was a 116 ERA+. In 2007, he struck out 165 in 215.1 innings, and helped the Rockies reach their first World Series. Going into 2008, Francis's age-27 season, things looked good for both player and team.

Of course, these things don't always work out - Francis was experiencing shoulder soreness that caused him to be ineffective in 2008. The injury was determined to be an injured tendon in his biceps, and he was shut down after 21 starts. He attempted to rehab, but to no avail, and opted for shoulder surgery in February 2009, which shut him down for the next 15 months. Upon his return to the Rockies in May 2010, his fastball's velocity had lost about 4 mph, and he was generally ineffective all season. The Rockies cut ties with their former top prospect and Francis signed a one-year contract with the traditionally bottom-feeding Kansas City Royals for 2011.

In 2011, Francis wasn't especially good, but there are some positives, and some reason to think he could be a good signing for the Reds. First of all, while his 4.82 ERA is unsightly, his 4.10 FIP and 4.23 xFIP show that his peripherals are sometimes better than results. This is the second consecutive year Francis has underperformed what his statistics would predict, so it's important to determine whether Francis has been unlucky and should be expected to improve, or if he's just an AJ Burnett-corollary type, who consistently underachieves. That's not easy to do.

While his early-career ERA was generally in line with his FIP and other predictors, Francis is a totally different pitcher now, with a fastball that tops out at about 85. To compensate for his loss in velocity and declining strikeout rate, Francis has thrown more ground balls the last two seasons. Unfortunatly, he's been doing that in front of some pretty poor defenses - the Royals were 24th in baseball with a defensive efficiency(DE) of .701, and Francis ended up with a .316 BABIP. The Cincinnati Reds were 3rd in baseball and best in the National League with a .718 DE. That difference makes an especially big difference to a pitcher like Francis, who doesn't strike many batters out.

On the other hand, in his second year back from his injury, Francis's fastball actually lost velocity from 2010. Also, after an extremely effective July where he did everything well, he pitched very poorly the rest of the year. Whether this was fatigue or simply a regression to his actual ability remains to be answered. It's important to keep in mind, though, that he was at 135 IP by the end of July - he last reached that number in 2008, and he last reached it while healthy in 2007. If this was a case of fatigue, it was certainly understandable.

Something else to note - Francis allowed home runs on only 8.5% of his fly balls last year, despite a relatively low amount of infield flies, as Ryan Campbell of FanGraphs told us last week. That's not a good sign going into the Great American Ballpark, one of the best home run parks in baseball.

Even so, slightly worse luck on keeping fly balls in the park would be evened out by the fact playing in front of Cincinnati's defense will mean less people  are on base when those home runs are hit. He also will be facing pitchers instead of designated hitters this year, so if his durability and velocity come back to his previous numbers a bit more, he should be able to post a strikeout rate in the mid-5's, a number that should help bring keep his ERA in the low 4's.

Does that fit with Cincinnati? Sure, "you can never have enough pitching" as the old saying goes. Still, the Reds have Mat Latos and Johnny Cueto entrenched, can probably expect some sort of revival from the previously consistent Bronson Arroyo, and after that have Homer Bailey, Mike Leake and Aroldis Chapman. Of those three, Leake has more than earned the right to start. He wasn't as hyped as the other two, but as a first round draft pick who went straight to the majors, improved in every conceivable way in 2011, and is still only 24, why wouldn't they just pen him into the rotation?

Chapman, by contrast, has only made three professional starts, all in the minor leagues. The Reds say they are committed to him as a starter, and with his talent, they should be. Relievers are always available - the Reds owe it to themselves to give someone with Chapman's upside a chance to be as valuable as possible. What's the harm of letting him start the year at Triple-A though? With six other established starters in a weak division, the Reds are already poised to compete. No reason to throw Chapman into the fray before he's ready and risk both his confidence and their chances at the division.

That's where Francis fits in. Appearing as the 7th starter at first glance, he's more MLB-ready than Chapman. Quick question - do you expect all five of those starters, particularly Cueto and Bailey, to go the entire season without injury? That's unrealistic of any staff, even one comprised entirely of starters with a good health history. Francis could have significant value as a "swingman" type, starting out as a left-handed long reliever who is ready to move into the rotation if (when) one of the starters gets hurt. Much better him than trying to coordinate calling up Chapman the first time an injury strikes.

For $1.5 million for a pitcher with Francis's experience and likelihood of success, that seems like a sensible investment for the Reds.

2011 Richie Ashburn Awards

Last year, I invented the "Richie Ashburn Award," dedicated to those rare players who have an on-base percentage higher than their slugging percentage. These players are rare because they can work deep counts and consistently get on base despite the fact that the player doesn't have such significant power that a pitcher would be disinclined to throw him strikes. Richie Ashburn was the master of this. Despite hitting only 29 home runs in his entire career, he led the National League in OBP four times. In 1960, he led the league with a .415 OBP and drew 116 walks despite not hitting a single home run, along with only 16 doubles and 5 triples.

I created some rules last year for a qualification for an Ashburn Award, which I'll review here.

1. The player must have an OBP higher than his SLG. Close doesn't count. Sorry, Alberto Callaspo (.288/.366/.375).

2. The player must have an OBP above. 350. Sorry Adam Dunn (.159/.292/.277). The award isn't given out just for being uniquely terrible. 

3. The player must have at least 400 plate appearances. I almost wanted to cheat and bring this number down in order to acknowledge Mets backup middle infielder Ruben Tejada (.284/.360/.335 in 374 PA). However, arbitrary rules are arbitrary rules. Still, a 21 year old middle infielder with a .360 OBP can probably expect some more playing time in the future. I can't even make the obligatory "unless he's stuck playing for the Mets" joke here, because Sandy Alderson is competent. 

That's it. Three simple rules to gain an Ashburn Award. With power numbers dropping around the majors, you figure there'd be quite a few players of this type, right? 

Wrong. We congratulate Jamey Carroll, our one and only winner of a 2011 Richie Ashburn Award. While playing for the Los Angeles Dodgers, Carroll had a 2011 line of .290/.359/.347.

Jamey Carroll - April 4, 2011
Credit: Cbl62 via Wikimedia Commons

This is Carroll's second consecutive award, and the third time he's met all qualifications in the last four years - in 2009, he missed because the Cleveland Indians gave him only 358 plate appearances.

I discussed Carroll's career in some detail in last years post, but I need to reiterate that it's nice that Carroll has gotten a run of playing time in his 30's. After not debuting until after his 28th birthday and not having a year with 400 plate appearances until his age-32 season, Carroll now has 3439 career PAs.

Carroll signed a two-year, $6.75 million contract with the Minnesota Twins back in November, where he will be a tremendous upgrade, even if he regresses some. Twins' second basemen had a .228/.278/.332 line in 2011, the worst in the American League in average and OBP, second worst in SLG. By contrast, only the Red Sox, led by Dustin Pedroia, had a higher team OBP from their second basemen than Carroll's .359. Indeed, that .359 number outpaced American League regulars Ian Kinsler (.355), Ben Zobrist (.353) and Robinson Cano (.349).

So congratulations to Jamey Carroll on his award, and on the Minnesota Twins for identifying such a valuable player at a position they desperately needed to upgrade.

Yu Darvish will probably be excellent

Why do I think that? Pretty simple really - he's always been excellent. Players who are excellent in one league generally are excellent in the next. We expect the best players in the Australian League or the International League or the Dominican Winter League to become the best players in the Major Leagues. The skills that make you good at baseball are the same, pretty much no matter where you play. Sure, there are some skills that aren't rooted out in the minor leagues. Pitchers who mix their pitches well but have mediocre stuff usually don't excel in the majors. Batters who have a specific weakness that minor league pitchers aren't good enough to exploit might be found out. In general though, the best players at a level tend to carry that through to the next level.

Yu Darvish has been, by far, the best pitcher in Japanese baseball. He has five consecutive seasons with an ERA under 2.00, and he seems to be improving. In 2011, as a 24 year old, he set a career best in every potentially important category - no matter what categories it is you find important: innings pitched (232), ERA (1.44), wins (18) , strikeouts (276), K/9 (10.7), BB/9 (1.4), HR/9 (0.2), WHIP (.828)... you don't need me to tell you that these are exceptional numbers.

It's not just numbers - Darvish has the sort of stuff that, even if he'd had no history of success, would make scouts take notice. Jonah Keri posted this piece on Grantland.com which I can't really add much to. I'm not sure he'll actually throw six pitches - unless all six are excellent, Mike Maddux will probably have him focus on his four best, and perhaps using a fifth on rare occasions. He's also built like the prototypical starting pitcher, at 6'5", 220. If a guy had put those numbers against college-level talent, with the stuff and build Darvish has, they'd probably be the #1 pick in any draft and expected to rocket through the minor leagues.

With that in mind, why does everyone seem so worried?

I know, I know. Daisuke Matsuzaka. Five years ago, he came in with similarly unbridled expectations. He'd been the Greatest Japanese Pitcher Ever. A national treasure. The scouts and stats both loved him - Baseball America named him the #1 prospect in baseball going into the 2007 season. (Go back and look at this list - only five years later, and the list would be... quite different. Anyhow, moving on). It didn't quite work out. His first two seasons were probably better than you remember,* but classifying Matsuzaka's stateside performance as a disappointment is probably fair.

*He was 33-15, ERA+ of 126 in 372.1 innings, striking out 355 and walking 174. Really.

We see tons of comparisons between Matsuzaka and Darvish, some well done, and some less so. Occasionally, I will see these comparisons labeled "racist." I don't think that's fair - Darvish and Matsuzaka were coming from pretty similar circumstances, and begin their U.S. careers at about the same age (Matsuzaka was about 8 months older in April '07 than Darvish will be on opening day). And both came in with similar hype. Certainly some of the people comparing the two are racist, or at least a bit jingoist. Most people, though, are just baseball fans who are trying to get a handle on what Darvish's statistics actually mean. "He was the best pitcher in Japan? So what - we heard all these things five years ago." That's understandable.

So if we're going to compare them, we need to dig a little bit deeper than "the best pitcher in the Japanese League." Both of them being the "best" at their time doesn't make them equivalent, in the same way Pedro Martinez's Cy Young-winning 1999 season wasn't equivalent to Felix Hernandez's 2010. In his last five seasons in Japan, Darvish has a 1.74 ERA and a 4.9 K/BB ratio, while Matsuzaka had a 2.63 ERA and a 4.2 K/BB. Darvish has the superior stuff and build. And, perhaps most importantly, Darvish has the less-checkered injury history - after throwing 240 innings as a 20 year old in 2001, Matsuzaka got hurt and got to only 73 the next year. He didn't reach 200 innings again until the 2005 season. Darvish, by comparison, has thrown 200 innings in four of the past five years, and the one he missed he got to 182. He's thrown more innings, but he's been much more consistent with the innings thrown. All pitchers are injury risks, but a 25 year old without a history of health problems is a better bet than a 25 with a history.

All of which is to say, Darvish should be rated more highly than Matsuzaka was going into 2007.

Beyond thinking he will succeed, though, I need to disclose something to you, the reader. I am rooting, openly, for Yu Darvish to succeed.

Why? Well, for one thing, because I can.

More importantly, I'm rooting for Yu Darvish to succeed, because I want to get over the "can Japanese pitchers succeed in the majors" question. Of course they can. Hideo Nomo, Kaz Sasaki, Hideki Kuroda, Takashi Saito, Shigetoshi Hasegawa, and yes, to an extent, even Daisuke Matsuzaka had success in the majors. None of them had awesome success, though. Of that group, Nomo had by far the most decorated career, winning the 1995 NL Rookie of the Year Award, pitching two no-hitters, and twice leading his league in strikeouts (1995 and 2001). He won 123 games. That's a nice career and all, but no Japanese pitcher was so good that he has taken away the curiosity effect.

*Note: I know that Darvish is half Iranian. That's not especially relevant - he is, and will almost definitely continue to be, discussed as a "Japanese pitcher."

What do I mean by "curiosity effect?" Basically, the fact that he's Japanese will be treated as a story itself. When Ichiro Suzuki leads off a game against Darvish for the first time (likely during that April 9-12 series in Texas), inevitably it will be treated as a big deal. In 2012, 17 years after Nomomania, that's a little silly. We don't see that when Carlos Ruiz bats against Mariano Rivera (they're Panamanian!) or Jacoby Ellsbury against Jeremy Guthrie (they're Oregonian!), and I'd like to see a Darvish-Ichiro at bat to be treated as a baseball matchup, rather than a national one.

To create that normalcy, Yu Darvish needs to live up to his lofty expectations. If he doesn't, people will ask why, and the easy answer will be that he wasn't properly prepared to play in the major leagues. Not because he's Japanese, but because they just develop players "differently" in Japan.

However, if he DOES live up to those expectations, and becomes an ace quality pitcher? That's one less question GMs will need to ask themselves, one less question every Japanese pitcher will be faced with, and one more pool of talent that every team will make sure they have access to. That way, when the next phenom comes down the road, instead of "can he pitch in America?" the question will simply be "can he pitch?"