Progress Report: Andrew Miller

One of the intriguing subplots for the Red Sox organization this season has been their attempt to revitalize the career of former top prospect Andrew Miller. I wrote about this when they originally acquired Miller back in December (The Dunne Deal: Andrew Miller), but to summarize, Miller had never been developed properly. Because of his excellent stuff, he'd pitched only 17.2 career innings in AAA, despite never having anything resembling success in the majors. The biggest problem has been a lack of control - 5.3 walks per nine innings for his major league career, bottoming out in 2010 with 7.2 per 9. The Tigers and Marlins have both had some success developing pitchers, but for whatever reason, they believed they could work out his problems in the major leagues. Neither could, and the Marlins dumped him this offseason for low-upside lefthander Dustin Richardson.

In December, the Red Sox nontendered Miller in order to sign him to a minor league contract. With Miller out of options, they figured this would be the only way to get him the time at AAA he needed. Miller and his agent were on board, and Miller went into the season knowing that he'd be starting with Pawtucket. Included in the minor league deal is an opt-out clause, stating that Miller could leave the Red Sox on June 15th if he isn't called up to the majors.

The timing couldn't be better for him, as Miller's development seems to have recently taken a turn for the better. Through his first nine starts, Miller had only a 2.90 ERA in 40.1 innings, allowing only one home run and striking out 35. The problem, as they had been in the past for Miller, was the walks. 32 in 40.1 innings, a rate of 7.14 per nine innings. This continued high walk rate likely was one reason Miller was passed over when Daisuke Matsuzaka and John Lackey were placed on the disabled list in mid-May. Miller not being on the 40-man roster was a consideration as well - they would have needed to remove someone from the 40 man to call on him. Still, looking at his other excellent numbers, a drop in his walk rate would have at least made the Red Sox seriously consider going to him.

In his last three outings, Miller at least appears to have made notable strides in that department. He's continued to not allow home runs (0 in 20 IP), he's continued to strike people out (16 Ks), and, most importantly, he's walked only two batters.

Take a look, in chart form:

	ERA	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	WHIP	HR/9	BB/9	K/9
First 9 starts	2.90	40.3	25	17	13	1	32	35	1.413	0.2	7.1	7.8
Last 3 starts	1.80	20.0	12	4	4	0	2	16	0.700	0.0	0.9	7.2
Season	2.54	60.3	37	21	17	1	34	51	1.177	0.1	5.1	7.6

Much of the credit for his recent improvement has gone to Pawtucket pitching coach Rich Saveur's suggestion of having him begin warming up earlier, and throwing a full simulated inning out of the bullpen before entering the game. Saveur gave the same suggestion to Clay Buchholz when he was struggling in AAA in 2009, and, despite occassional blips, Buchholz has maintained above average control ever since. Of course, three starts isn't enough is declare real development. Two of the teams Miller faced, Indianapolis and Norfolk, are in the bottom three in the International League in walks, and the third, Durham, recently seems to have taken to swinging at everything. In Sunday's game, Kevin Millwood pitched into the 7th inning with only 64 pitches. Still, it's an important development, considering he's only five days away from being able to exercise his opt-out. Miller is saying all of the right things about not thinking about the situation, but one has to assume that every team in baseball is - it's pretty rare to be able to acquire a pitcher of Miller's talent as a free agent in mid-season. So while the Red Sox would certainly love to keep him in the minors at least another four to six weeks to ensure his continued development, their hand may be forced.

If Miller is called upon, what would his role be? Tim Wakefield is hardly entrenched as the 5th starter, so that is an option. There is a line of thought that says pitchers with high walk rates but good strikeout numbers who keep the ball in the park make excellent relievers, but Miller has terrible career numbers out of the bullpen - the extended time to warm up Miller appears to need to get his control in order is likely one reason, as well as the fact that he shows little platoon split, a rarity for a 6'7" lefthander.

With Wakefield only four wins away from 200 for his career, casting him aside for a project like Miller would be a tough decision for the Red Sox. Also interesting is the juxtaposition of Miller and Wakefield. Miller was the top draft pick with electric stuff, who would throw harder than anyone on the major league staff other than his former UNC rotation-mate Daniel Bard, but has to this point failed to have any success at the major league level because of his lack of control. Wakefield is at the other end of the spectrum, only making it to the major leagues after flaming out as a first baseman an learning the knuckleball, now the softest throwing pitcher in the major leagues, with close to 200 wins despite having only three seasons where he struck out more than 7 batters per nine innings. Throw in one more striking correlation - it was 16 years ago when the Red Sox signed Wakefield to a minor league contract after he'd bottomed out with Pittsburgh, reworked his mechanics, and called him up in late May when injuries struck. Wakefield responded by starting his Red Sox career 14-1, and he's been in Boston ever since, throwing at least 140 innings every year.

The best thing for the Red Sox might be to guarantee Miller's $1.2M major league contract if he is willing to agree to waive his opt-out clause. It's impossible to see the Red Sox NOT needing another starter at some point this year, but calling upon him now would force them to drop someone from the 40 man roster, as well as unseat the popular Wakefield from the rotation before Miller is ready to do so. (Note: I have no idea if such a deal is allowed by the MLBPA - if that's in violation of his contract or other union rules, let me know). I'm not so much worried about the sentimentality of replacing Wakefield as I am the performance - Wakefield has a 4.89 ERA as a starter, and while that's below average for an AL starting pitcher, he's not likely to perform significantly worse than that. Given his durability and the Red Sox offense, that has value. Miller, on the other hand, could turn into a disaster if he isn't ready, and the Red Sox energy trying to develop him the last three months will have been for naught. Another point - Miller's stated goal is to become a starter - it would make little sense for him and his agent to force the Red Sox to call him up as a reliever and again stunt his development.

In the next five days we should have more information - Clay Buchholz's back or John Lackey's arm could flare up again, necessitating a roster move. Miller could walk 8 guys in three innings on Monday against Charlotte. Lots can change in a week, so it will be interesting to see how this plays out.

The Mariners Need to Call up Dustin Ackley

I started off today trying to write an entry on the 2011 draft. Specifically, I wanted to write about how the Nationals' choice of Anthony Rendon was the smartest pick. I found that others smarter than I (such as Rob Neyer) had written on the topic. In general, I believed that picking the best college hitter was a lower risk, higher reward proposition. After some research, I still believe that - JD Drew, Todd Helton and Mark Teixeira were the top hitters taken in their classes in the last 15 years, but compiling the data is taking more time than I expected. I will say though, that strategy-wise, the Nationals did the best job in this draft, taking the #1 college hitter and a high risk type in pitcher Alex Meyer of Kentucky with their second 1st rounder.

I'll be attempting to come up with a more substantive follow-up, but one data point I came across doesn't need more time, research or discussion. Dustin Ackley needs to be in the major leagues.

Ackley was taken 2nd overall in the 2009 draft behind Stephen Strasburg. In three years at UNC, Ackley hit .412/.487/.648, with a power surge his junior year vaulting him to "best college hitter" status. The only questions about him were what position he would end up at, and whether his power would translate to the pros.

In his first minor league season, these questions proved legitimate. The Mariners were trying Ackley at 2B, where he received mixed reviews from scouts, and he also hit only 7 home runs in 587 PA. The conventional wisdom was that Ackley's batting average would carry him at 2B, but if he needed to move to a corner position, he would need to add power. This kept him out of many top 10 lists heading into the 2011 season.

Fast forward a couple months. With a .305/.421/.504 300 PA into the 2011 season, Ackley has been rightly getting significant attention. With 16 doubles, 3 triples and 9 home runs, the power concerns have been alleviated some. While granting that the Pacific Coast League is a great place to hit, Tacoma plays pretty neutral, unlike, say, Albuquerque or Colorado Springs.

While Ackley has been raking, the Mariners are 31-30, good for second place in the AL West, only 2.5 games behind the Texas Rangers. This despite being dead last in batting average, OBP and SLG. Mariner 2B are hitting .286/.331/.396 (despite the best efforts of Jack Wilson); LF are hitting .211/.277/.360. So it's pretty fair to assume that Ackley would out-produce their 2B, and hard to picture him NOT being an upgrade in left, while spotting a slumping Ichiro in RF.

The Mariners insist that Ackley is in the minors to work on his defense, but it's hard to believe it's not to protect themselves against his reaching "Super Two" status. As a Super Two player, Ackley would reach arbitration (but not free agency) a year earlier costing them a few million dollars. So instead, they are leaving him in the minor leagues longer than he needs to be, potentially costing them a playoff shot.

This strikes me as short-sighted. First of all, Mariner fans deserve the best team possible on the field the organization can produce, and it's not clear that they're getting that. Furthermore, as I discussed in a previous post on Eric Hosmer, there are pretty significant financial benefits to making the playoffs - bonuses, merchandise, ticket sales, future season ticket packages, and so on. Missing out because you're trying to save a few bucks would be the definition of being penny wise and pound foolish.

A bigger issue here is that the "Super Two" status is not working. Instead of helping players just under the 3-year arbitration point get paid earlier, it just keeps them in the minors longer. This is bad for the players, the fans and the teams. There have been suggested fixes, such as the one posted today by Dave Cameron at FanGraphs, but I'm not sure such a radical restructuring of free agency is a) necessary, or b) conceivable. It's more likely that the Super Two designation will just be dropped entirely.

With a change likely when the CBA expires, it makes even less sense for the Mariners to keep Ackley in the minors. They are missing out on valuable at bats without him, and are endangering their playoff chances by doing so.

Pawtucket vs. Durham 6/6 Live Blog!

Afternoon minor league baseball on the MLB Network? Looks like it's time for a Live Blog!

The Pawtucket Red Sox are in Durham to take on the Bulls, the AAA affiliate of the Rays. I haven't gotten a chance to watch much minor league ball this year, so this will be nice.

12:04: Darnell McDonald and Marco Scutaro, both on rehab assignment, are in the starting lineup for Pawtucket. Scutaro will likely be activated for tomorrows game (with Scott Atchison likely to be demoted), while McDonald will probably stay down for the rest of the week. In addition, Kevin Millwood is pitching for Pawtucket.

12:08: Single to CF by Scutaro off of Bulls starter Edgar Gonzalez. Diamondbacks fans will remember Gonzalez. He pitched in Arizona from 2003 to 2008. While he was considered a prospect and made it to the majors at age 20, he never really developed as Arizona hoped he would. His biggest problem was the long ball, giving up 56 career homers in 323 innings.

12:12: A timeout to work on the mound here in the first game, gives us a chance to know that Durham's ground crew head Scott Strickland was the Minor League Sports Turf manager of the year.

12:20: With the mound back to Gonzalez's liking, Darnell McDonald rips a double down the left field line, scoring Scutaro. McDonald is now 7 for 16 with two doubles and two homers on his rehab stint.

12:23: Lars Anderson follows up with a two run double, scoring McDonald and Josh Reddick. Every time we seem ready to write Anderson off as a prospect he seems to go on a hot streak. Being blocked by Adrian Gonzalez, his future is clearly with another organization, but the Red Sox certainly wouldn't object to his trade value going upward.

12:26: Luis Exposito reaches on catcher's interference by Jose Lobaton. Not a glancing blow, Exposito hit the glove straight off of Lobaton. It looks like he's going to stay in the game. Eventful first inning so far.

12:33 Leadoff single by top prospect Desmond Jennings off the foot of Kevin Millwood. After being bothered with shoulder trouble last year, Jennings has a .275/.379/.474 line so far. If BJ Upton is traded, a real possibility, Jennings is going to get the call.

12:35: Jose Iglesias starting the nice 6-4-3 double play with the glove toss. As good as he is with the glove, it's ok to at least start to be worried about the bat. While Iglesias is one of the younger players in AAA, he has only 1 extra base hit in 150 PA.

12:39: Double to left field by Scutaro on a "changeup." Looked more like the high straight ball to me. Gonzalez and Lobaton are having a discussion about something, but his stuff looks extremely hittable so far.

12:40: Sacrifice fly by Redick, PawSox take the 4-0 lead.

12:41: Another double for McDonald. This one was more of a chopper that took a big bounce over the 3rd baseman's head. Pawtucket leads 5-0. One difference between the majors and minors (and one reason minor league managers shouldn't necessarily be rated based on their W/L record) - in the bigs, someone would be getting ready in the bullpen. Here in Durham, the goal is to get everyone the appropriate amount of work and development.

12:47: A nice piece of hitting by Dan Johnson, driving an opposite field single off the left field wall. I think Johnson has earned "quad-A" deisgnation. In 2000 AAA plate appearances: .304/.417/.554; in 1513 major league PA: .235/.334/.404.

12:51: Speaking of Quadruple-A, Chris Carter strikes out against Millwood. Carter now has over 2500 AAA plate appearances. Finally getting a limited chance with the Mets last year, Carter failed to produce, delivering at a .263/.317/.389 clip. Fair or not, a middling prospect like Carter probably couldn't afford to punt on a chance like that. He's probably a AAA soldier from here on out.

1:04: Ray Olmedo with his second very nice play at SS, with a leap to deny LF Ronald Bermudez. Last inning, he made a glove flip to start a double play on a Jose Iglesias ground ball. Olmedo appeared with the Reds in parts of four seasons (2003-06), and in 2007 with the Blue Jays, but never really hit. The difference between Olmedo and some of the guys who end up having long careers as a defensive replacement is very fine, and often comes down to little more than luck. With Reid Brignac strugging mightily in the majors, Olmedo (.359 OBP so far this year) might get a call. He's not the answer long-term, but if Brignac doesn't turn it around soon, Tampa will start looking for options before falling too far behind New York and Boston.

1:12: Double to left-center by Jennings. That gives him 23 extra base hits so far this year. A little bit farther up, I mentioned that he could get the call in the event of a BJ Upton trade, but he may instead be in line to take Sam Fuld's job. Fuld has been a pretty big story this year, so I was surprised to see that he's hitting only .231/.284/.347. Jennings is better than that right now, and should be in the majors very soon.

1:21: Edgar Gonzalez strikes out Lars Anderson to lead off the 5th, giving Gonzalez three straight K's. He's settled down some, but his stuff doesn't appear all that sharp. Watching on TV, he doesn't look like he does a good job repeating his delivery - when he throws a fastball, he speeds up his delivery and reaches farther back, while he appears to guide his changeup and drop down to a sidearm delivery for his curve.

1:32: Just as Gonzalez looked like was putting it together, a single, two walks, then another single, and it's 7-1. Iglesias drove in the two runs on a grounder between shortstop and the third baseman. The RBIs are nice, but that's the third straight ground ball by Iglesias on a pitch he should've been able to drive.

1:36: In what will apparently be Scutaro's last at bat of the day, he grounds into a 6-4-3 double play. Scutaro finishes up 3 for 4 with two runs scored and a double.

1:45: Cory Wade relieves Gonzalez for Durham. Through 33 innings this year, Wade has a 1.09 ERA, 33 strikeouts and only 6 walks. Wade had an excellent 2008 for the Dodgers, but struggled in 2009, possibly a victim of overuse.

1:48: Easy 9 pitch 1-2-3 inning by Wade against Reddick/McDonald/Anderson. Not a hard thrower but he looks like he locates well.

1:59: Nice sliding catch by Chris Carter. He's not normally known for his defense (to put it kindly), but he showed off pretty solid range before going into the slide here.

2:00: Luis Exposito with an opposite field home run to make it 8-1. Exposito has been on base four times today. he reached on the catcher's interference in the first, had a hard single off the left field wall in the 3rd and walked in the 5th before this homer. Exposito has been slumping greatly this year

2:02: Millwood strikes out Olmedo to lead off the 7th. The Bulls have been free-swinging today, leading to Millwood being at only 58 pitches here in the 7th inning. There isn't much heat left on Millwood's fastball, but he's getting a good downward movement and location on it today. Not sure if his success today is more due to his good pitching or the lack of Bull patience, but the results have been excellent.

2:08: Millwood must be at his pitch limit, as Arnie Beyeler is out there to take him out with two outs in the seventh. So through 6.2 IP, Millwood gave up 5 hits, 1 ER (responsible for Brandon Guyer on third base), 0 BB, 4 K. According to the stadium gun, Millwood was reaching 89 in the 7th, and he threw only 62 pitches - again, possibly more attributable to the Bulls impatience than Millwood's dominance. Still, the Red Sox have to be very happy with this peformance. Clevelan Santeliz will replace Millwood.

2:11: Santeliz strikes out Russ Canzler to strand Guyer, closing the book on Millwood. Canzler and Guyer came to Tampa in the Matt Garza trade, and so far both have been excellent, with Guyer at .322/.390/.544 and Canzler at .297/.413/.500.

2:20: Clevelan Santeliz with the PawSox first walk of the day. Walks have been the problem over the years with Santeliz, with 5.5 per 9 innings over his minor league career.

2:22: Two-run homer to right field by Jose Lobaton. Lobaton had a very short stint on the 2009 Padres, but otherwise has been a career minor leaguer. With 18 walks and 14 extra base hits now in 136 PA, Lobaton may have a chance to crack the Tampa Bay roster.

2:26: More minor-league fun! Starting 2B Omar Luna is now pitching for Durham! And his brother Hector Luna is now playing 2B.

2:27: Che-hsuan Lin, who replaced Darnell McDonald in RF, leads off with a single. Lin has great plate discipline, great range in the outfield and an excellent arm, but has not shown any increased proclivity to hit for power as he's moved up the minor leagues. Until he develops the ability to put the ball into the gap, he can't project as anything more than a fourth outfielder.

2:33 RBI double for 2B Nate Spears. Although Spears had a nice 2010 at Portland, as a 25 year old with AAA experience, that needs to be taken with a grain of salt. Indeed, back into AAA this year, Spears has a .198/.320/.349 line.

2:35: After talking about Ray Olmedo's nice defense, he makes a tough error on a Luis Exposito grounder. Two runs score, making it 11-3.

2:44: Strange play. Hector Luna hit a Pop up to third baseman Brett Dlugach, which he appeared to lose in the sun, then find again. He came in, and appeared to make a basket catch and drop the ball on the transfer, but the umpire called it a dropped pop up. Of course, Ray Olmedo on first base had to hold up, so he was thrown out at second base. Net is the same (man on first base, two outs), just a more difficult way to get there.

2:48: Chris Carter fly ball to shallow left to end it. Pawtucket wins 11-3, and takes three of the four in the series from Durham. Millwood had a very impressive stat line, but as I said above, I'm not sure how much I'd read into. Durham was swinging at everything, and a veteran like Millwood is smart enough to handle that, even with his diminished stuff. Still, his velocity was up about four MPH from his previous Pawtucket start, so it is definitely a positive.

Breakout Performances: Tommy Hottovy

Ok, I'm getting ahead of myself - it's tough to call anyone a breakout performer after facing a grand total of four batters over three appearances. Still, after spending eight years in the minor leagues, Tommy Hottovy has already had an impact in his first weekend, and has positioned himself to take a permanent role in the Red Sox 2011 bullpen.

I'm assuming that most of you who are here know the general background story. If not, Peter Abraham of the Globe will fill you in here. It's a good write-up that I encourage you to read, but if you'd like the condensed version, Hottovy was a 4th round pick of the Red Sox in 2004 as a starting pitcher out of Wichita St, and made it to the AA Portland Sea Dogs by 2006. He stayed in Portland a very, very long time, interrupted by a 2008 Tommy John surgery.

In 2009, unable to distinguish himself as a starter, he began to work his way back through the bullpen. He gradually lowered his arm angle until reaching the sidearm delivery he now employs. Over two minor league stops this year, he pitched 27 innings, allowing only 16 hits and 5 walks, and striking out 28. So when Rich Hill blew out his arm last week, the Red Sox turned to Hottovy not as a reward for his perseverance, but because they needed a good pitcher.

While it's too early to proclaim Hottovy the new Jesse Orosco, the early returns are good.

On Friday, Hottovy came in with the Sox losing 6-5 with two outs in the sixth inning and Coco Crisp on first base to face David DeJesus. After a Crisp stolen base, Hottovy got a routine 4-3 groundout. The Red Sox came back to win 8-6.

On Satruday, Hottovy came in with a 5-3 lead in the 7th, with men on first and second and only one out, again facing David DeJesus. Again, Hottovy induced a ground ball, this time for a 6-4-3 double play to keep the Red Sox in the lead. After some fireworks, the Red Sox won in the 14th inning 9-8.

On Sunday, Hottovy entered again in the 7th, this time with a 6-3 lead and Cliff Pennington on first base. After walking Ryan Sweeney, David DeJesus came up as the tying run. For the third straight day, he got a ground ball out of DeJesus for another 4-3 put out. The Red Sox won 6-3 to complete the sweep.

So, while it will be interesting to see how all of the American League hitters who are not named David DeJesus fare against Hottovy, it's clear that Francona has the confidence to put him into high leverage situations. He should get plenty of chances when Boston travels to Yankee Stadium this week - the Yankees have no shortage of lefties (as well as a couple switch hitters who it would be sensible to turn around - Jorge Posada is 0 for 27 against lefties this year), and Hottovy is the only southpaw in the bullpen. While the lefty-one-out-guy may not be my favorite part of the game, it's nice to see Hottovy succeeding in the role.

The next test may be to use Hottovy against some righties, possibly in some lower leverage situations. Francona, to his credit, has been willing to use his lefthanded relievers as more than one out guys when they prove capable - Hideki Okajima from 2007-09 and Rich Hill earlier this year as prominent examples.

One thing in Hottovy's favor is the lack of obvious internal solutions. Rich Hill is out for the year. Hideki Okajima's stuff has devolved past the point of the Red Sox having any confidence in him. The Red Sox are committed to keeping Andrew Miller in the minors as they try to reconstruct his delivery. Franklin Morales has walked 5.2 per 9IP for his career. Felix Doubront is probably the next best choice, but it's hard to pull the trigger on making a successful minor league starter into a major league reliever when he is only 23 - if his future isn't as a starter with Boston, he may have more value in a trade. In that case, it probably makes sense to continue to have him showcased on regular rotation in Pawtucket.

This all adds up to be what should be a significant opportunity for Hottovy to prove himself. After eight years in the organization, he's earned it.

Sayonara, Daisuke. Is this for the Best?

Short answer? Yes.



The long answer is a little bit more complicated, but it's headed in the same direction.

Those of you who aren't living in a cave have probably heard the news. ESPN and several other sources are reporting that Daisuke Matsuzaka has decided to have the Tommy John surgery to replace the UCL in his elbow. With the recovery for such a surgery usually between 12-18 months, it's likely that Matsuzaka has pitched for the last time in a Red Sox uniform. His contract expires after the 2012 season, and he's slightly more likely to be re-signed by the Red Sox to a contract beyond that point than you or I are, it would be pretty close.

The response of Red Sox fans to this news has ranged from casual resignation to unrestrained glee. That may be a bit unfair, considering Daisuke DID have his positive moments, but he was a source of unending frustration. The half-dozen starts a year where Daisuke would pitch aggressively, use his fastball, get ahead in the count and look like the pitcher that was advertised made it all the more infuriating when he went back to to nibbling, walking the farm, and leaving the game after 104 pitches through five innings. It wasn't just frustrating to watch, it was ugly, boring baseball.

It wasn't just fans who were frustrated by Matsuzaka. He continually rejected Boston's conditioning program, preferring to undertake his own in a way that was characterized either as enigmatically stubborn or downright insubordinate. Might some of that be the Red Sox fault, for spending big money on a guy who wasn't willing or able to adjust to a different management style? Perhaps, though I suppose we'll never know exactly how that relationship devolved.

Over the last three years relationship between Matsuzaka and his team, as well as his team's fanbase, had become frayed to the point of unsustainability. Now his UCL is too. The best thing for everyone is for him to have his surgery, take the full 18 months to rehab, and have everyone start fresh in 2013. No huge signing bonus, no unreasonable expectations, no conflict over conditioning and pitching approach, no more having to go to bed at 11:15 when it's only the sixth inning, even though the score is 2-2. Daisuke could go to a team where the media and fanbase are bit less rabid, or back to Japan, where the scrutiny will be intense, but the support system will be as it was during his successful 1999-2006 run.

It's over in Boston though. Speaking the the past tense, Matsuzaka won 49 games in over 600 innings. He added three postseason wins, including one in the 2007 World Series. For the $51M he'll make over the six years he's under contract, that's disappointing, but not on the level of, say, Carl Pavano. Pavano won 9 games and appeared in the postseason zero times while making $40M over four years from the Yankees. Matsuzaka had a season where he won twice that many (plus a playoff game). Obviously pitching wins aren't a great indicator of results, and there were many underlying problems with Matsuzaka's game that were hidden by the Red Sox offense, but it does illustrate the point--Daisuke didn't live up to expections, but this was hardly the colossal bust some are making it out to be.

It's just time to move on. And it's for the best.

Photo credit: http://www.flickr.com/photos/philocrites/1805220985/