2011 Playoff Preview, AL Division Series Edition

Here we are. It's the playoffs, and we're just in time for me to predict eery series incorrectly, the way I almost did in 2006. (Hey, I got the Mets over Dodgers right!) Don't you remember those 2006 World Champion Twins! Long story short, these are probably wrong. That's never stopped me before though.

Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees

Detroit: 95-67. Scored 787 runs, Allowed 711 runs.

New York: 97-65. Scored 867 runs, Allowed 657 runs.

Initial irrelevant thought: These two teams have the best home uniforms in baseball. So win or lose, these teams will look sharp doing it. 

Expected lineup:

	Yankees	WAR			Tigers	WAR
SS	Derek Jeter	0.7		CF	Austin Jackson	2.4
CF	Curtis Granderson	5.2		3B	Wilson Betamit	1.3
2B	Robinson Cano	4.6		LF	Delmon Young	0.0
3B	Alex Rodriguez	2.7		1B	Miguel Cabrera	7.1
1B	Mark Teixeira	2.4		DH	Victor Martinez	2.9
RF	Nick Swisher	3.4		C	Alex Avila	5.4
C	Russell Martin	1.3		RF	Magglio Ordonez	-1.9
DH	Jorge Posada	-1.0		SS	Jhonny Peralta	4.4
LF	Brett Gardner	4.2		2B	Ramon Santiago	1.3

Bench: 

Yankees: Jesus Montero, Eric Chavez, Eduardo Nunez, Chris Dickerson, Andruw Jones

Tigers: Omir Santos, Brandon Inge, Andy Dirks, Don Kelly, Ryan Raburn

Starting Rotation:

Yankees			Tigers
C.C. Sabathia	6.9		Justin Verlander	8.6
Ivan Nova	3.5		Doug Fister	5.7
Freddy Garcia	3.4		Max Scherzer	2.4
			Rick Porcello	1.0

Bullpens: 

Yankees: Mariano Rivera, David Robertson, AJ Burnett, Rafael Soriano, Phil Hughes, Boone Logan, Luis Ayala, Cory Wade

Tigers: Jose Valverde, Al Albuquerque, Joaquin Benoit, Phil Coke, Dan Schlereth, Brad Penny, Ryan Perry

Breakdown: 

Justin Verlander vs. C.C. Sabathia, the matchup of arguably the two best pitchers in the American League this year (Jered Weaver says hi from the golf course), will only happen once, as the Yankees will counter their starting pitching depth disadvantage by simply using fewer starting pitchers. It's a good move, as Sabathia proved in '09 that he's able to pitch on short rest, and Nova will get two travel days between Game 2 and a potential Game 5. 

Still, I think Game 1 is more important for this series than it is for any of the others. Both teams have a pretty notable dropoff after their ace, and are both facing pretty good lineups - the Yankees lineup scored more runs and works pitchers harder, but the Tigers lineup's higher batting average is no fluke. There is some evidence that low batting average/high scoring teams have trouble replicating that in the playoffs, for one sort of obvious reason. Being patient and waiting for pitches to drive out of the park works great against #5 starters on bad teams. Teams with good enough pitching to make the playoffs though, are usually there because they do the best job keeping the ball in the park and not walking guys.

The Yankees lineup is generally better, top-to-bottom, but starting Posada over Montero is a mistake. Montero was a monster the last month, and Posada is old. The Yankees might as well put Reggie Jackson or Yogi Berra out there. Maggio Ordonez is in sort of the same position for the Tigers, but is only out there because Brennan Boesch is out. He'll be lifted for defense in the late innings.

Surprised by Ivan Nova's low WAR? The whole "he pitches in the AL East" thing may seem to indicate he should be rated more highly, but he somehow only pitched against the Red Sox twice, and obviously never pitched against the Yankees. The Jays, Rays and O's aren't exactly offensive juggernauts, and Nova really pitched well against those three, going 6-1 with a 2.79 ERA. After the Yankees, the next two highest scoring teams were Texas (2-1, 4.67 ERA, 9 BB, 6K) and these Tigers, who he didn't pitch against. Either the Yankees did a good job protecting him so that he'd build confidence, or he got exceptionally lucky with what days he happened to be pitching.

With that in mind, if this gets to a Game 5, he'll be pitching against Justin Verlander. It'll be in Yankee Stadium, which would be a boost for the Yankees, but how much. I think whoever wins Game 1 tonight will win the Series - if the Yankees take it tonight, I think it goes four, if the Tigers do, I think it'll take them all 5. 

Prediction: It seems like a bad year to pick against Justin Verlander. Tigers in 5.

Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Area Rays

Texas: 96-66. Scored 855 runs, Allowed 677 runs.

Tampa Bay: 91-71. Scored 707 runs, Allowed 614 runs

Initial irrelevant thought: I'm not bitter.

Expected lineup:

	Rays	WAR			Rangers	WAR
LF	Desmond Jennings	2.3		2B	Ian Kinsler	5.2
CF	B.J. Upton	3.8		SS	Elvis Andrus	3.5
3B	Evan Longoria	6.3		CF	Josh Hamilton	3.6
2B	Ben Zobrist	5.1		1B	Michael Young	2.4
DH	Johnny Damon	2.9		3B	Adrian Beltre	5.2
SS	Sean Rodriguez	2.4		C	Mike Napoli	5.5
1B	Casey Kotchman	2.9		RF	Nelson Cruz	1.4
RF	Matt Joynce	3.0		DH	Yorvit Torrealba	0.8
C	Kelly Shoppach	1.4		LF	Craig Gentry	1.4

Bench: 

Rays: John Jaso, Jose Lobaton, Reid Brignac, Elliot Johnson, Sam Fuld

Rangers: Esteban German, Matt Treanor, Mitch Moreland, David Murphy, Endy Chavez (Note - Murphy will be substituted for Gentry against right handed starters)

Starting Rotation: 

Rays			Rangers
Matt Moore	0.2		C.J. Wilson	5.0
James Shields	6.1		Derek Holland	2.7
Jeremy Hellickson	4.2		Colby Lewis	2.2
David Price	3.7		Matt Harrison	4.0

Bullpen:

Rays: Kyle Farnsworth, Juan Cruz, Wade Davis, Joel Peralta, Jake McGee, Brandon Gomes, J.P. Howell
Rangers: Neftali Feliz,  Alexi Ogando, Koji Uehara, Mike Gonzalez. Scott Feldman, Darren Oliver, Mike Adams

Breakdown:
First off - Matt Moore starting Game 1?? I know the Rays are willing to trust the kids, but that takes some intestinal fortitude on the part of Joe Maddon. The kid only has 9.1 career innings and one start! Initially I expected Moore to be on the roster in an attempt to replicate David Price's 2008, but wow.

The Rangers, as you can see score a LOT more runs than the Rays this year. For most of the year though, the Rays didn't have Desmond Jennings in the lineup, and Evan Longoria was hurt the first month, and ineffective up to the all-star break. After dominant second halves by both players, this lineup is NOT what it was in the first half. The middle of their lineup though still can't compete with the power Hamilton, Napoli and Beltre in there for Texas.

The Rangers will also have the advantage in the bullpen. Feliz was much less dominant than last year, but Alexi Ogando will move nicely into his 2010 role, and Scott Feldman will be a nice addition there as well. I found it odd that the Rays left Jeff Niemann off the first round roster. His stuff would seem to translate better to the pen than Wade Davis, and if the Moore experiment goes kaput, he's a better bet in long relief.

If this series goes all five games, I do not expect to see Matt Moore start (however, I've also learned that it's folly to try to predict the actions of Joe Maddon). James Shields, coming off a fantastic year will get the nod then.

On paper, the Rangers have the better team. However, the Rays play better defense, have the more daring manager, and are all too familiar with being the underdog.

Prediction: The Rays are intriguing, but the Rangers have too much firepower on offense. Rangers in 4.

Next Round, just for the record: Tigers in seven



Tables made with TABLEIZER: http://tableizer.journalistopia.com/
Statistics from Baseball-Reference: http://www.baseball-reference.com/

Stop Pinch Running for Adrian Gonzalez in Close Games

Instead of writing about the newly tied American League wild card race, I am posting a write-up that I actually started during the second game of Sunday’s Red Sox vs. Yankees doubleheader. I started this when watching Lars Anderson, rather than Adrian Gonzalez, come up in a couple of key situations. Anderson was in the game because he pinch ran for Gonzalez. In this must-win game, Terry Francona had removed his best hitter for a pinch runner. It wasn’t the first time he’s done so, so I decided to go back through the season and check on what happened in other games where Gonzalez was pinch run for when the Red Sox were in close games :

May 4 vs. Los Angeles of Anaheim – Adrian Gonzalez, on sort of a crazy play, “singles” between the pitcher and catcher to score Jason Varitek with two outs in the 8^th inning, cutting the Angels lead to 2-1, and advances to second on a throwing error by Fernando Rodney. Marco Scutaro goes in to pinch run for Gonzalez. The next batter, Kevin Youkilis, lines a hard single to left – Scutaro advances only to 3B. David Ortiz flies to center, stranding him there.

The Angels get that run back in the top of the 9^th, but the Red Sox tie the game with two in the bottom of the 9^th. We go to extra innings.

  In the bottom 10^th, Marco Scutaro led off the inning with a short fly out down the left field line. This proves to be somewhat significant, as David Ortiz walks and Jed Lowrie singles. The Red Sox leave runners on first and third.

In the bottom of the 12^th, Scutaro hits a one out single. The next batter, Kevin Youkilis, doubles, and Marco Scutaro is thrown out at the plate. The guy who was pinch running for the Red Sox best hitter, the guy who is in the game because he supposedly is a baserunning advantage over Gonzalez, makes the out on the bases. This proves significant again, as Darnell McDonald, the next batter, singles, and Youkilis is only able to advance to third.

The Angels won the game on Bobby Abreu two-run single in the top of the 13^th.

June 4 vs. Oakland – Adrian Gonzalez singles to lead off the bottom of 10^th inning, tied 7-7. Drew Sutton pinch runs. Advances to second on a one-out groundout. Was stranded there.

In the 11^th, Jacoby Ellsbury hit a two-out double to score Jarrod Saltalamacchia, tying the game 8-8. With the winning run on second base, and knowing that Sutton, rather than Adrian Gonzalez, was “in the hole,” Bob Geren had Andrew Bailey intentionally walk Dustin Pedroia. Bailey then struck out Sutton. Pinch running for Gonzalez effectively took the bat out of the hands of BOTH Pedroia and Gonzalez.

In the 13^th inning, we had a remarkably similar situation. With the score still tied 8-8, Ellsbury hit a leadoff single. With Pedroia at the plate, Ellsbury (showing low awareness of the situation) stole second base. Geren had Michael Wuertz intentionally walk Pedroia once again. Wuertz then induced a soft lineout from Sutton to end the inning. That is now twice that both Pedroia and Gonzalez were unable to hit with the game on the line.

The Red Sox did end up winning this game in the 14^th on an RBI single by JD Drew, but the fact remains that Francona’s management strategy cost the Red Sox four at bats by two all-star hitters.

August 8 @ Minnesota –Gonzalez singles with two outs in the top of the 9^th with the game tied 1-1. After advancing to second on a Dustin Pedroia single, Darnell McDonald is brought in to pinch run. McDonald scores from second on a single by David Ortiz, a ball Gonzalez may not have scored on. So this time, the pinch running worked, right? Not so fast. The next batter, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, doubled, scoring Pedroia, making the game 3-1.

The only way this pinch running made a difference is Gonzalez had been sent by the third base coach AND been thrown out on the play. There is something between a 5 and 20 percent chance of this.

September 5  @ Toronto –Gonzalez walks with two outs in top of the 10^th inning. Mike Aviles pinch runs. David Ortiz grounds out, Aviles is stranded.

Gonzalez’s spot in the batting order never comes up again. Dan Wheeler gives up a game winning home run to Brett Lawrie as the Red Sox season begins crumbling beneath them.

September 25 @ New York – (In the second game of a doubleheader, the slumping Red Sox are down to a half game ahead of the Rays.) Gonzalez leads off the top of the 9^th with a single off of Mariano Rivera. Lars Anderson pinch runs. After advancing to second on a Mike Aviles sacrifice bunt, and advancing to third on a JD Drew groundout to first base, Anderson is stranded there when Mariano Rivera strikes out Jarrod Saltalamacchia.

This chain of events seemed especially foolish to me. First off, with expanded rosters, LARS ANDERSON was the best pinch runner Francona could come up with???? Anderson is almost as slow as Gonzalez. He STILL needed to waste an out getting him to second. This is NOT Dave Roberts pinch running for Kevin Millar, for three important reasons: 1 . The Red Sox were losing that game. They absolutely needed to score one run then, or their season was over; 2. Dave Roberts was appreciably faster than Kevin Millar. Fast enough that he could take second base without wasting an out, and was able to score from second on a single, on a ball that Millar likely would not have been able to. Anderson couldn’t steal second, and isn’t any more likely than Gonzalez to score from second on a single. 3. Adrian Gonzalez is the Red Sox best hitter. Kevin Millar was not. Adrian Gonzalez should only be removed when his replacement has a significantly higher chance of scoring that inning. The chance of scoring off of Mariano Rivera are always slim, and Lars Anderson’s aren’t any better than Adrian Gonzalez.

In the 11^th inning Lars Anderson leads off with a weak pop foul to first base.

In the 13^th inning with Dustin Pedroia on first base, and with two outs, Lars Anderson is struck out by Aaron Laffey.

The Red Sox went on to win this game on a 14^th inning Jacoby Ellsbury home run, but again, Francona put his best bat on the bench in a game the team pretty much needed to win.

Conclusion – Francona pinch ran for Gonzalez in four tie games and one close game in which they were losing. Those five pinch runners scored a total of one time, and it was a sequence of events in which Gonzalez would have had between an 80%-95% chance of scoring himself.

When Gonzalez’s spot in the order came up later in these games, his replacements went a combined  1 for 6. The one guy who did get a hit, Marco Scutaro, ended up getting thrown out on the bases, which I’m sure Adrian Gonzalez is perfectly capable of doing on his own.

It could be stated, of course, that the Red Sox WON three of the four tie games that they pinch ran for Gonzalez in (and also lost the game they were already losing). While true, these managerial decisions made these victories less likely. It wasn’t Francona’s managerial expertise that led to Jacoby Ellsbury hitting a three run homer against Scott Proctor, a guy with an ERA of close to 7 since 2008. Gonzalez staying in the game might not have helped them win earlier. The decision to remove Gonzalez had ZERO positive impact on the fact they won in the end.

I say this not to dump on Francona at a time where it seems convenient to do so. Francona is more willing than any manager in the league to use Jonathan Papelbon in tie games on the road, a decision that has a much higher positive potential impact than removing Adrian Gonzalez for a pinch runner has negative. He deserves credit for that. However, it needs to be pointed out - the Red Sox played 5 games this year that went 13 innings or more. Adrian Gonzalez – again, their BEST hitter – was not in there for the end of three of them. This isn’t just frustrating – it’s a sub-optimal way to manage a team.  The fact that these sub-optimal decisions didn’t always lead to losses show that managerial decisions are often unrelated to the final outcome. The best managers are the ones who do the most to optimize his team’s chances of winning. In these cases, Terry Francona didn’t do that.

Drew Pomeranz Debuts for Colorado

Probably the biggest prize the Rockies received in the Ubaldo Jimenez exchange, lefty Drew Pomeranz made his major league debut yesterday, getting the start against the visiting Cincinnati Reds. Taken 5th overall by the Indians in the 2010 draft out of the University of Mississippi, Pomeranz has generally been excellent. In 20 starts across high A and AA, he managed 101 innings, finishing with a 1.78 ERA, 119 strikeouts, 38 walks and only 3 home runs allowed. The only slight red flag I see is the walk number - at just under 3.5 per nine innings, it's easy to envision the more patient hitters of the major leagues working deeper counts and running Pomeranz out fairly early. With his classic pitcher build though, it's easy to forget though that Pomeranz doesn't turn 23 until November. He is young enough looking in the face, but is built like a linebacker. At 6'5", he is probably fairly close to that 230 lbs. he is listed at, but has a build that you can't help but envision him gaining weight. As he grows into his frame, standardizing his release point will be the key to maintaining his control. That was his only issue in college

As with any young pitcher, he is being handled carefully, but Pomeranz has a free and easy delivery, with a motion that could be hard to pick up - his lead arm flashes out to the first base side, and he has no trace of the dreaded inverted W - check out the third base view in slow motion at around 2:20 of this video. He keeps his elbow below the shoulder until after bringing his left hand above both. 

Pomeranz was solid yesterday, pitching 5 shutout innings, allowing only two hits, striking out two and walking two. He got his first major leauge win, and while his velocity sat in the low 90's, indicating he may be running a little bit low on gas from the long season, he did enough to get the locals excited.


His upside is probably something in the mold of Jon Lester, an excellent pitcher whose occasional control issues end up leaving him with enough clunkers and make it tough for him to pitch extremely deep into games consistently. Lester has pitched into the 8th inning only five times in his 28 starts and doesn't have a complete game. For comparison's sake, Cole Hamels, the same age and with similar experience, has completed 3 of his 28 games and pitched into the 8th inning 13 times. Pomeranz, like Lester, may have a year where he puts all of his positives together, is able to mitigate his negatives, and contends for a Cy Young Award. Generally though, I'd guess we're looking at an upside of a 3.00-3.25 ERA in 200 innings (inflated slightly with Coors Field), with good strikeout totals, likely in excess of 220 a year. Certainly a pitcher you want on your team. 


It will be interesting to revisit the Ubaldo Jimenez deal down the road. He pitched poorly after the trade, but I do expect him to be better than both Pomeranz and Alex White for the next half dozen years or so. Indians fans are nervous now, but like the move the Angels made for Dan Haren last year, the move wasn't made for 2011 alone. The Indians didn't see anyone with an upside like Jimenez's 2010 season in their system, and made a gutsy move. Let's wait a year or four to evaluate it.

Alfredo Aceves Deserves a Chance to Start

Let's not mince words. The Red Sox are losing games because their starting pitching stinks. They've also been losing because their bullpen stinks too, but that's more recent, and it's been exacerbated by the fact they've needed to use the bullpen for so many innings. Daniel Bard appears fried, and Matt Albers has been so bad recently that it's hard to envision him on the playoff roster.

In the second half, the Red Sox are 30-22 with a mediocre 4.09 ERA. If that 4.09 ERA were evenly distributed, that would be one thing, with the way the Red Sox score runs. It's not though. Check out the player stats so far in the second half:

	W	L	ERA	G	IP	H	ER	HR	BB	SO	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9
Jonathan Papelbon	2	0	0.47	19	19.0	6	1	0	2	24	0.0	0.9	11.4
Alfredo Aceves	5	1	2.00	21	36.0	22	8	2	13	32	0.5	3.3	8.0
Jon Lester	5	2	2.18	9	57.7	43	14	3	23	57	0.5	3.6	8.9
Josh Beckett	4	2	2.87	10	62.7	53	20	9	13	61	1.3	1.9	8.8
Scott Atchison	0	0	3.00	1	3.0	3	1	0	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Kyle Weiland	0	1	3.38	2	8.0	7	3	0	3	2	0.0	3.4	2.3
Dan Wheeler	1	1	3.43	19	21.0	18	8	3	4	17	1.3	1.7	7.3
Erik Bedard	1	2	3.66	6	32.0	31	13	2	13	32	0.6	3.7	9.0
Franklin Morales	0	1	3.79	22	19.0	20	8	3	5	20	1.4	2.4	9.5
Daniel Bard	1	2	4.22	20	21.3	14	10	2	7	24	0.8	3.0	10.1
John Lackey	6	3	5.20	10	62.3	81	36	9	19	43	1.3	2.7	6.2
Michael Bowden	0	0	5.40	4	8.3	9	5	3	4	10	3.2	4.3	10.8
Tim Wakefield	1	3	5.43	10	58.0	67	35	11	14	38	1.7	2.2	5.9
Randy Williams	0	1	6.48	7	8.3	10	6	0	5	6	0.0	5.4	6.5
Andrew Miller	3	3	6.75	10	38.7	49	29	6	27	30	1.4	6.3	7.0
Matt Albers	1	1	7.43	21	23.0	29	19	4	12	26	1.6	4.7	10.2
Felix Doubront	0	0	15.43	3	2.3	4	4	0	3	2	0.0	11.6	7.7
Darnell McDonald	0	0	18.00	1	1.0	1	2	0	2	0	0.0	18.0	0.0
Team Total	30	23	4.15	195	481.7	467	222	57	169	424	1.1	3.2	7.9

Two of the starting pitchers, Jon Lester and Josh Beckett, and two relievers Alfredo Aceves and Jonathan Papelbon are pitching excellently. The rest of the staff has been bad, going 14-18 with a 5.25 ERA.This is how we start talking ourselves into John Lackey as the #3 starter in the playoffs - he's been bad, but not obviously so against the other guys. Bedard has pitched pretty well, but his health is always up in the air, and he is missing his next start. Much has been made of Tim Wakefield's struggle to win his 200th game, but the fact is, he generally hasn't pitched well enough to earn it - his numbers above don't reflect the fact that he has 12 unearned runs already in the second half. This puts his RAA at 7.29. And Andrew Miller seems long removed from the promising project he was in June. 

Lester, Beckett and Papelbon are supposed to be the pillars of this staff. Even with both Beckett and Papelbon coming off subpar years in 2010, all three were counted on, and all three have delivered. Aceves, though, has been a revelation. With the Yankees, he had been hurt often, and gained a reputation as an uncoachable headcase. So, despite still being under team control, with options, he was nontendered by the Yankees. When the Red Sox scooped him up, they were planning to stretch him out in Pawtucket as a starter, but when the need came in April for more consistent bullpen work, the call went out to Aceves. With all due respect to Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Aceves is the man who has most gone above and beyond expectations. As he closes in on 100 innings, it is his durability that has been most important, consistently stepping in when starters are getting blown out.

As his 9-2 record can attest, the idea that Aceves has "kept the Sox in the game" this year has been more than just an easy empty narrative. Win-loss record is obviously not a great judge of performance, but there are times when it helps with the narrative - Aceves has entered 8 times when the Red Sox trailed by 5 or fewer runs in innings 3 through 6 - in those 8 games, he's pitched 20.3 innings, allowing only 4 earned runs. In five such games in the second half, he has pitched 11 scoreless innings, allowing the Red Sox to come back in two of those games. 

Maybe two games doesn't sound like much, but we're talking about occassions where the starting pitcher has been knocked out before completing the sixth inning. When the bullpen has a go-to guy who can pitch multiple innings and give his chance to win some of these games, that's a huge advantage.

Which begs the question - if Aceves is so often better than the guy he's called in to replace, why doesn't he get a chance to start? Well, some might say it's because he's been better out of the bullpen than he has been starting. However, that's true of almost everyone - knowing you're only going to pitch an inning or two makes it easier to "let it fly" as they say, without worrying about pacing. That's why so many good relievers are failed starters while you'll almost never see starters who are failed relievers. On the other hand, one may argue that Aceves was mediocre as a starter this year, going only 21 innings in his four starts, with a 5.14 ERA and 13 walks to 13 strikeouts. Two points: 1) in five starts with the Yankees in 2008-09, Aceves pitched 26.1 innings with a 3.42 ERA, giving him a career 4.18 ERA as a starter; 2) even that 5.14 ERA would make him better than Tim Wakefield and Andrew Miller and maybe even John Lackey. (Aside. Look, I love Tim Wakefield, and I want him to get to 200 wins. But if he's going to give up 5 runs in 5 innings every time he pitches, he's going to struggle to get there, no matter how much people want to blame Daniel Bard.)


Of course, I understand that Aceves is an important member of the bullpen. When the playoffs start, that's where he will belong, and he would become especially important if a game were to go into extra innings. Right now though? The Red Sox are losing games because their starters stink. Josh Beckett and Erik Bedard are both missing their next start, leaving a rotation of what apparently will be Lester, Lackey, Weiland, Wakefield and Miller. Maybe winning the American League East isn't one of managements goals, but winning a few games probably should be, and that rotation isn't good enough. Give Aceves a couple spot starts down the stretch. If he gets shelled, Aceves goes back to the bullpen and the Red Sox are none the worse for it. If he pitches well? Maybe that 3rd starter they've been looking so hard for has been under their nose this whole time.

Stephen Strasburg Excellent in Return

As you probably have heard by now, Stephen Strasburg returned to the Nationals' rotation last night, pitching five strong innings, allowing only two hits, striking out 4 and walking nobody. What is impressive is that this performance is pretty well in line with what he's always done in the majors. Strasburg has now started 13 games. He's pitched 73 innings, has a 2.73 career ERA striking out 96, walking only 17, giving up 58 hits, only five of which have left the park. That's an average performance of 5.2 innings, 4 hits, 7 K's, 1 walk. He's also never hit a batter in the major leagues. It's amazing for someone to have such dominant, swing-and-miss stuff and also such great control.

Yet, we're a little worried, right? A lot of the talk leading up to the event wasn't how awesome it was that he was coming back, but whether the Nationals were rushing him.Part of this, I think, is so that people can set themselves up to "blame" the Nats if Strasburg does get hurt again. "Oh he blew out his arm again? Doesn't surprise me - those stupid Natinals can't even get the name correct on their jersey." Rob Dibble went so far as accusing the Nationals of bringing Strasburg back early in order to "sell tickets and put butts in seats."We just got through this with Mark Prior, who WAS pushed pretty hard. It's tough to see guys this talented break down.

That's not entirely fair. First off - why are we interviewing Rob Dibble about it? He's the same guy who said Strasburg should "stop crying" and "suck it up" when his arm first started hurting - a hurt which proved to be a torn elbow ligament. Now he thinks they need to baby Strasburg so that he's good for 15 years? Let's all agree that everything Rob Dibble says about Strasburg is wrong and not listen to what he says anymore. As I noted above, Strasburg averages less than 6 innings per start in his career. He's thrown 100 pitches zero times. Exactly how slow are they supposed to be with Strasburg - have him pitch one inning a month until his 25th birthday? No, if Strasburg does get hurt again, it will be for the reasons Chris O'Leary and Don Cooper said before he got hurt in the first place - his delivery puts a lot of stress on his elbow. Watching him last night, his angle does seem a "little" lower, but he's still got that inverted-W thing going on. (Side note. Isn't an Inverted-W just an M?) His general mechanics are pretty much the same. I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but he's probably getting hurt again.

Maybe he won't, though. So, instead of watching every Strasburg start holding my breath, wondering if this will be the night his elbow goes pop, I'm going to enjoy it. In terms of stuff, he has the best in the majors right now,better than Verlander, better than Felix Hernandez. He doesn't have anything near their durability, but even they don't dominate hitters like Strasburg does. He's not a prospect, he's a great pitcher, already. So let's enjoy watching him pitch every chance we get.

Mike Trout Makes Me Look S-M-R-T

Ok, so usually when I post something about how someone should play more, or is better than you think, they immediately put up a stink bomb. The most obvious case this year was Madison Bumgarner having the worst starting pitching line of the year the day I posted that he was much better than his win-loss record. I'd been right a couple times, like when I talked about Desmond Jennings, but usually I make bold pronouncements and end up with egg on my face. So yesterday, when I posted about Mike Trout deserving more playing time, my assumption was that he'd start and go 0 for 5 with 3 strikeouts and ground into two double plays.

He didn't.

Trout did get the start last night, batting 7th against the Mariners. When Trout came up with the bases empty and one out in the second inning off of fellow rookie Anthony Vazquez, he hit a solo home run to deep LF to give the Angels a 1-0 lead. When he came up in the fourth inning with two on and one out, he hit a three run homer to give the Angels a 4-0 lead.

Two plate appearances, two home runs, driving in all four Angel runs.

Trout came up again in the 5th, with the game starting to get a bit out of hand. He walked with the bases loaded off of reliever Jeff Gray to "drive" in Torii Hunter to make it a 7-2 game, and scored on a Maicer Izturis double that made the score 10-2. He grounded out in the 7th and struck out in the ninth, giving him a game line of 2 for 4 with 2 homers, 3 runs, 5 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K, and a WPA of +.338.

Trout now has a season line of .246/.306/.523. He wakes up with a slugging percentage higher than Mark Teixeira or Carlos Quentin. It's a very small sample, but we don't really have any evidence that he isn't really really good. It isn't about the future. Trout gives them the best chance to sneak past the Rangers into the playoffs this year.

Keep your eye on that lineup card tonight.

Mike Trout Sits Again. Angels Lose Again.

In four important division games since Friday, the Angels are 1-3. I thought I'd point out an interesting trend I noticed:

Record when Mike Trout starts: 1-0
Record when Mike Trout doesn't start: 0-3

Therefore, my incredibly oversimplified analysis of the situation is that the Angels are now incapable of winning games without Mike Trout.

Hey, we still use pitcher wins, right? Aren't Trout Wins just as legitimate? Aren't they?

No, of course not. Whether a batter is in a game that his team wins is even MORE prone to luck than the starting pitcher. The batter only gets abour 4 or 5 at bats in a game, plus however many defensive plays he may be involved in. A starting pitcher will usually be somewhere between 25-30 batters faced. A batter could go 4 for 4 with 4 home runs, and still lose 15-4 if everyone else on his team stinks. Pitcher wins are dumb. Batter wins are way, way dumber.

Still, the fact that not starting Mike Trout probably isn't the reason the Angels keep losing when they don't start him doesn't mean they shouldn't be starting him. (Did I put enough negatives in that sentence for you? Did it hurt your head? See, that's how I feel when I read about pitcher wins. Feel free to proceed).

There's a tool called "Win Probablity Added" going around the stat community. It does exactly what it says - measures each thing you do on the field and how much it changed your team's chances of winning.

I'm not a huge fan of the tool as a judge of "value" - it's kind of like RBI for us stat nerds, considering the situation and not the event. A player who hits a home run in the 8th inning of a tie game didn't do anything more valuable than the one who hits a home run to lead off the game, but it will obviously change the probability more. Because of this, it falsely inflates the "value" of closers, and devalues the value of starting pitchers who are on teams with a good offense - C.C. Sabathia giving up 1 run in 8 innings and winning 9-1 pitched just as well as Jered Weaver giving up 1 run in 8 innings and winning 2-1. FanGraphs directly states that it has no predictive value, and that there are better stats to use for raw player evaluations.

What WPA does well, on the other hand, is enhance the narrative of individual games. Joe Posnanski gives a nice post about that here, discussing the top 10 games by WPA.

(Aside. That #10 game, where Dwight Evans hit a home run to tie the game in the 8th inning, and then won it in the 10th, is my favorite non-playoff game in my Red Sox watching lifetime, and will be getting a follow-up post.)

Looking at the WPA for some of the great games in history is pretty fascinating. For example, I remember watching Game 4 of the 2001 World Series - the game where the Yankees beat the Diamondbacks with two home runs of Byung-hyn Kim, first by Tino Martinez in the 9th inning, then by Derek Jeter in the 10th. That's one of the most memorable game endings in recent history, but it's not what I remember it for. Nope, I remember that three times in that game, Tony Womack led off his inning with a hit. He hit singles in the first and third inning, and a double in the fifth. In EACH of those circumstances, Bob Brenly had Craig Counsell bunt. And, in EACH of those innings, the Diamondbacks failed to score any runs. I remember thinking how stupid it seemed that Brenly would waste all of those outs. Well, WPA confims it - those sacrifice bunts increased the Yankees chances of winning by 2%, each. WPA is not done retroactively - it doesn't recalculate based on what Martinez and Jeter did later on. It simply tells us what the consequences of a play are on the game and how they change the game at that time. What they tell us, in this situation, is that Brenly killed his team. Counsell had a .359 OBP in 2001 (from 2000-2005, it was .348, so that's not fluky). So, it stands to reason that, in three plate appearances, Counsell would get on base once. Or, in other words, NOT MAKE AN OUT once. Instead, because of Brenly's strategy, he made an out all three times. On purpose. We can't say for sure if the Diamondbacks lost because of that, but we know that their bad strategy didn't help them and that they lost by one run.

Wait, wait, I thought we were talking about Mike Trout? Where is this going, why are you writing about a playoff game from 10 years ago?!

Sorry, I got a little carried away there. I still can't think of Bob Brenly without thinking about that game.

Anyway. Mike Trout. WPA. Right.


On Friday, the Angels lost to the Rangers 11-7 and fell three games behind. They had been losing 11-0, but the back end of the Ranger bullpen apparently decided to give them a sporting chance. What did the non-Trout Angels' outfielders do?

LF Vernon Wells: 2-3, 2B, R; WPA +.002
CF Peter Borjous: 1-5, CS; WPA -.084
RF: Torii Hunter: 1-3; WPA -.061
TOTAL: .364/364/.455; WPA -.143
Recap: It's fair to use this as an example of why WPA isn't so hot sometimes. The Angels lost this game because Dan Haren stunk.
Trout Effect: Minimal. Though he got into the game late as a pinch hitter, going 1-2 with a single, the outfield wasn't the reason they lost. The end of the first inning, where Hunter struck out while Borjous was caught stealing while it was still a 0-0 game is why the WPA for the group is so bad.


On Saturday, Mike Trout started, and the Angels won 8-4. As a team, they hit 5 homers and moved back to two games behind.

LF Vernon Wells: 2-4, HR, 3B, BB, R, RBI; WPA +.127
CF Peter Borjous: 1-5, HR, SB, RBI, 2 R; WPA +.035
RF Mike Trout: 2-4, HR, R, RBI; WPA +.037
TOTAL: .385/.429/1.231; WPA +.199
Recap: Howie Kendrick and Bobby Wilson homered too. It's fair to say C.J. Wilson wasn't sharp in this one. Still, the Angel outfielders played a major role in the one.
Trout Effect: MAKES HIS TEAMMATES BETTER. KNOWS HOW TO WIN. Yeah, back to earth. He had a very good game, and was one of the reasons the Angels won.


On Sunday, Trout did not start, the Angels lost 9-5 and fell back to three games behind.

LF Vernon Wells: 1-4, RBI; WPA +.006
CF Peter Borjous: 0-4; WPA -.065
RF Torii Hunter: 0-3, BB; WPA -.060
TOTAL: .091/.167/.091; WPA -.119
Recap: The Angels were winning this one until Jered Weaver blew up in the 7th. The +.008 of Wells' two out RBI in the 3rd was largely negated by a pop out in the first with two outs and runners on first and second. Torii Hunter's strikeout in the third with a man on second and one out while leading 2-1 wasn't a highlight either.
Trout Effect: Notable. Despite the final, this was a close game for much of the way. A couple outs made by Hunter and Wells with runners in scoring position allowed Colby Lewis to stay in the game through six, which got the ball to the good part of the Ranger bullpen.


Last night, the Angels lost to the lowly Mariners, 5-3. With the Rangers off, the Angels fall to 3.5 games back. Jokes about the patheticness of the Mariner offense may now be passe. Allowing Dustin Ackley and Mike Carp to settle into the 3/4 spots in the lineup is making a big difference. Their .416 SLG as a team in August is 60 points higher than it was any other month, and their .329 OBP ranks 5th in the American League. Sleeper pick for 2012? Not quite ready to jump on that bandwagon, but with their pitching, getting an average offense can make them a serious contender.

LF Vernon Wells: 1-4, R; WPA -.074
CF Peter Borjous: 1-3; WPA -.146
RF Torii Hunter: 1-4, R; WPA -.052
TOTAL: .283/.283/.283; WPA -.272
Recap: Borjous's line drive double play when it was a 3-3 game in the 7th was a killer in the WPA department. The singles all came early in the game, limiting the WPA.
Trout Effect: Moderate. The guy DOES have a .426 SLG, doesn't he? This looks for the world like the kind of game where they needed an extra base hit to swing the balance.

So, over the last three days, Mike Trout has a WPA of +.037, while the rest of the Angel outfielders are at -.372. As we mentioned about, that has no predictive value, only narrative value. So, maybe we can't conclude that playing Mike Trout more would have helped them. What we do know is that, on the whole, the guys they did play didn't help them.

Angels Send Mike Trout Back to AA, Might Not Know What They're Doing

When last we discussed Mike Trout here, the Angels had recalled him due to an injury to Peter Bourjos. I admit that I may have had delusions of grandeur, but there was always the chance that he wasn't quite ready. Indeed, his .163/.213/.279 line in 14 games showed that he wasn't quite ready for The Show. If the Angels were in the same position as the Mariners or Astros, playing for 2012 and beyond, it may have made sense to see what he could do in the last two months anyway, but the Angels are not in that position. Engaged in a closer-than-expected race with the Angels in the American League West, the Angels couldn't give Trout the playing time a super prospect needs. Here's where things get a little bit silly.

On August 1, the Angels demoted Trout all the way back down to AA - the level where he'd dominated to a .324/.415/.534 clip in 341 plate appearances. All six tools were on display, and he was the youngest player in his league. The only four players with higher OBPs were between 4 and 12 years older than Trout was. Given that level of production, wouldn't a promotion to AAA have been forthcoming, even if the major league promotion wasn't there?

Apparently Tony Reagins - who, let's let it be said, should have every decision he makes about an outfielder be thoroughly questioned - didn't think so, and sent Trout to continue his apprenticeship at a level where he seemingly has nothing left to learn. What has Trout done there? Why, the same thing he did every night - try to take over the wo.... errr, make AA pitchers feel bad about themselves. In 41 post-demotion plate appearances, he is batting .343/.439/.543, with 3 doubles, 2 triples, 4 steals and 6 walks.

Let me say this definitively. Mike Trout is ready for AAA.

The Angels keeping Trout in AA doesn't just stunt his progress, it stunts theirs as an organization. Most likely, Trout will be a major league callup in September. Wouldn't a month of facing AAA pitching - a major step up from AA for a variety of reasons, most notably the ability of pitchers to throw off-speed pitches for strikes - better prepare Trout to contribute when he does? If there IS a flaw in his game that AAA pitchers could expose, isn't working it out now, rather than next season, the best bet? If he dominates at AAA as well, doesn't he have to be considered a starter next year, to heck with how much money they owe Vernon Wells (who happens to have the worst OBP in the major leagues)?

The Angels, for all the dumb things they do like not playing Mike Napoli and trading Mike Napoli, have won a lot of games the last 10 years. The biggest reason they've won is from contributions from home grown talent. They will need to continue to do so in order to keep up with the Rangers, so it it is worth watching their handling of Mike Trout going forward.

Dontrelle Willis is Back

Yes, I know he's been back in the majors for a month, and generally has pitched well. Last night though, we got the first indication that Dontrelle Willis isn't just back as a major league pitcher, but might be back as an very good one. Despite not getting the win, Willis game up only 3 runs in 8 innings, striking out 10 and walking only 1. It was the first time he'd pitched 8 full innings since September 25th, 2007.

In my mind, it doesn't seem like the presence of "Dontrelle Willis, formidable major league starting pitcher" was that long ago, but the last time Willis had a sub 5.00 ERA was 2006, when he was only 24 years old. That was his fourth season, and up to that point, he has a 58-39 record, with a 3.44 ERA. A 3.44 then is even more impressive than it is now, good for an ERA+ of 121. In 817 innings, he had struck out 611 and walked 257, and allowed only 65 home runs.

Those aren't quite elite numbers, but Willis was more than the numbers. He was a charismatic guy, a great interview, and had probably the most fun delivery to watch in the game. He was also one of the best hitting pitchers in the game. All in all, he might not have been the #1 pitcher you'd pick to start your team around, but if you were buying a ticket for one night? You wanted to see Dontrelle Willis.

The common narrative seems to have become that Willis fell apart when he was traded to the American League, but that's really totally true. I mean, he was really, really terrible for the Tigers, but it was 2007, his last year with the Marlins, that he began his steep decline. His walk rate grew, his strikeout rate fell, and his home runs allowed doubled. In doing so, he posted a 5.17 ERA, leading the NL in earned runs allowed. After that season, he was dealt to the Tigers, with Miguel Cabrera, for top prospects Andrew Miller and Cameron Maybin.

In the American League, Willis was lost. In 101 innings, he posted a 6.85 ERA, walking 92 and striking out 68. It was said by many that he had "Steve Blass disease," the affliction which prevents previously good pitchers from being able to throw strikes. However, while Blass disease is a mental tic, others thought Willis's problems were more of the mechanical nature. With a windup that included so many moving parts, this certainly sounded like a possibility. It led the Tigers to hold onto Willis for two and a half years, before they finally lost their patience and traded him for journeyman starter Billy Buckner on June 1, 2010. After a successful debut with the Diamondbacks (6 shutout innings, though he walked 4), things went downhill quickly there as well. After only 22.1 innings pitched, Willis had given up 17 runs, striking out only 14 while walking 27. Only July 6th, Willis was released. He was signed to minor league deal with the Giants, but never sniffed the majors.

What made his struggles so disappointing wasn't just that he was pitching so poorly, but that he was working so hard to get through it, to no avail. Upon Willis being designated for assignment by the Tigers (before the trade was worked out), manager Jim Leyland said "I just applaud his efforts. It's been a long road back. The consistency just wasn't there. The uncertainty just ran out. He's been a great teammate. It's sad, really. I know how hard he worked. It just didn't work out.”

Knowing he would need to prove himself back in the minors, Willis signed a minor league contract with the Reds before the 2011 season. Accepting assignment to Louisville, Willis continued to work hard. This time though, for the first time in half a decade, the hard work appeared to be paying off, giving the Reds notice. The 5-2 record, 2.63 ERA, 67 strikeouts and only 5 home runs allowed in 75.1 innings pitched were nice, but what led them to believe he was ready to come back to the majors was the fact that he'd walked only 20 batters in that time.

On July 10th, Willis was recalled by Cincinnati to replace the struggling Edinson Volquez. He gave them 6 solid innings, giving up only two runs, leaving the game leading 3-2. Unfortunately, the Reds bullpen could not hold on, but the return of Willis was a great sight for any baseball fan. In his first five starts, Willis pitched fairly effectively, with a 3.41 ERA in 29 innings. His 17 strikeout to 11 walk ratio wasn't exactly setting the world afire, but it's certainly within the range of acceptability.

Last nights performance against the Rockies brought Willis's comeback to another level. As mentioned above, it was the first time he'd completed 8 innings since September 25, 2007. It was his first 10 strikeout game since August 14th of that same year. It was his highest game score since that September 25th start, and his second highest since 2006. Though it's been only 37 innings, Willis has to be encouraged that his 3.41 ERA is the second best among Reds' starters this year, and that his 118 ERA+ would put him 14th in the NL, between Hiroki Kuroda and Tim Hudson.

Of course, pitching that well for six starts is much less impressive than doing it for an entire season, but I see no reason to rain on this parade. What's important here is that Dontrelle Willis is pitching well in the major leagues again. Therefore, I call for an official moratorium on any tempered optimism regarding the success of Willis's comeback, until further notice, under the punishment of having your status as a fan of the game of baseball revoked. This is one to root for.

Desmond Jennings Likely in the Majors to Stay

While I was away this weekend, the Rays recalled outfielder Desmond Jennings from Durham. It only seems like Jennings has been on prospect lists for a century - this was actually only his fourth year on Baseball America's preseason Top 100, ranking #22 this season.

Jennings was having a very nice season at Durham, batting .275/.374/.456, with good CF defense and 17 steals in 18 tries. This is about in line with his .283/.375/.431 numbers since he was promoted to AAA in mid-2009, since when he has accumulated nearly 1000 plate appearances - a massive number for someone so highly regarded. His improved all-around game this year, showing more power and defensive skill, was making it difficult for the Rays to keep him in the minors. Indeed, if it hadn't been for a fractured finger sustained earlier in the month, it is likely that Jennings would have been recalled around the All-Star Break.

After getting the call on Saturday morning, Jennings started both weekend games for the Rays in Kansas City, in left field on Saturday and center on Sunday. Through the two games, he is 4 for 6 with 2 runs, 2 doubles, a triple, an RBI, 2 steals, 2 walks (one intentionally) and 2 HBP. According to Baseball-Reference, that gives him .4 WAR, only .1 behind the season total of regular LF Sam Fuld.

While Jennings would be a clear improvement over Fuld, it's not clear that's who he'll be replacing. The BJ Upton trade rumors have been running rampant over the past week, and I would be surprised if he is still a Ray by the end of the trade deadline this coming Sunday. Don't be surprised if Jennings immediately outplays Upton. As I posted here, Upton has value as an excellent baserunner and a very good center fielder, he simply isn't much of a hitter. For a third straight season, he has a sub-.750 OPS. Among 78 AL qualifiers, he is 64th in OBP and 47th in SLG.

As with any prospect, we can't guarantee what kind of player Jennings will be. However, his combination of speed, defense and patience is a great set of tools to build on. This season, Jennings has been more effective not only waiting for a good pitch, but driving that pitch with authority. More importantly, has been Jennings attitude during his prolonged stay at AAA. It could be very well argued that Jennings has been ready for the bigs since early last season, at least. Often, when a highly touted prospect is stuck in AAA for longer than he should be, he'll begin to sulk, and his numbers will suffer. Not so with Jennings, who has improved in nearly every facet of his game this year. If there's one point of caution, it's that his strikeout rate is a tick higher this year. That would be a concern if he were making more outs overall, but he isn't - the increased strikeouts appear to be an offshoot of his increased commitment to drive the ball, certainly a tradeoff the Rays will take. While the Rays are likely too far out of contention in 2011 (Baseball Prospectus has their odds at 3.2%), it is easy to imagine that Jennings will be a key contributor to competitive Rays teams in the coming years.

Justin Masterson Continues His Excellence

At the end of April, Justin Masterson sat at 5-0 with a 2.18 ERA. At quick glance, if one sees that he is now 8-6, and remember that he failed to make the American League All-Star team despite the fact that it seemed like every single player on the original team got the plague, and necessitating a B Team of Allmost-Stars to be called upon, one might then conclude that Masterson has struggled since April. That conclusion would be quite incorrect.

Date	G	GS	IP	BF	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	ERA	BF/BB	BF/K	BF/HR
Through April 20	5	5	33.0	134	26	8	8	11	22	1	2.18	12.182	6.091	134.000
Since May 1	16	15	103.3	424	97	37	32	29	79	3	2.79	14.621	5.367	141.333

Since the beginning of May, Masterson has struck out batters more frequently, walked batters less frequently, and, most impressively, has been slightly more stingy with the long ball. So, why the worse result? Well, for one thing, a 2.18 ERA was unsustainable for how he was pitching (after four starts, I noted here that his pitching line was more in line with someone in the mid 3's). So, pitching better than that and ending up with a 2.79 ERA sounds about right.

The biggest difference has been the support the rest of his team has given him. In April, opponents batted .258 on balls in play - since then, they've been hitting .306. That evens out to .295 over the season, right around what would be expected. More notably, the offense has failed him. In Masterson's six losses, the Indians have scored 6 runs. In 7 no decisions, they've scored a more reasonable 14 runs - unfortunately, most of those have come after Masterson had left the game. In those no decisions, Masterson sports a 1.87 ERA - better than in his 8 wins.

Last night might have been his toughest. Masterson was pitching (pardon the bad pun) masterfully. Through 7.2 innings, he had allowed 4 hits, struck out 6, and walked nobody. Unfortunately, when he left the game, he had only a 1-0 lead. In the ninth innings, closer Chris Perez (who made the All-Star team over Masterson) got the first out, and then walk, double, intentional walk, two run single, and the game was over, with the Indians 2-1 losers.

A couple better bounces, and Masterson could easily have a better won-loss record. There are 10 AL pitchers with sub-3.00 ERA's, and they have an average record of 10-5, a number held down by the equally unlucky James Shields, and the confusing Matt Harrison, whose peripherals don't portend a sub-3.00 ERA in any way. With his improving strikout and walk rates, and his always strong ground ball percentage, Masterson is a great bet to win games down the stretch and in the future. It's ok to stay on the bandwagon.

Red Sox Dominating Despite Little Value from Starting Pitchers

You may have noticed that the Red Sox are 12-2 so far in July. In doing so, they've passed the Yankees for the best record in the American League, and are only a half game worse than the Phillies for the best record in baseball. They now sit at 58-36, erasing all memories of a team that was 0-6, 2-10, and didn't go over .500 until the 41st game of the season.

What you may not have noticed is that their run this month has come with very little help from their starting pitching:

Player	W	L	ERA	IP	H	ER	HR	BB	SO	WHIP	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9
Josh Beckett	2	0	1.71	21.0	13	4	1	2	20	0.714	0.4	0.9	8.6
Tim Wakefield	1	0	5.82	17.0	29	11	2	3	10	1.882	1.1	1.6	5.3
John Lackey	2	1	6.14	14.7	22	10	2	2	16	1.636	1.2	1.2	9.8
Andrew Miller	2	1	7.90	13.7	18	12	2	11	3	2.122	1.3	7.2	2.0
Jon Lester	0	0	0.00	4.0	0	0	0	1	5	0.25	0.0	2.3	11.3
Kyle Weiland	0	0	13.50	4.0	8	6	1	2	2	2.5	2.3	4.5	4.5
Total	7	2	5.21	74.3	90	43	8	21	56	1.493	1.0	2.5	6.8

Josh Beckett has continued to be outstanding, and Jon Lester has pitched only 4 innings this month because of a lat injury. After those two, the Red Sox starting pitchers have a 7.11 ERA in 10 games - AND THEY'RE 8-2 IN THOSE GAMES! That's partial luck, of course. On Sunday, the Red Sox scored only 1 run, and won. On Monday, they gave up 10. It's hard to imagine them having a better record if they'd received more resonable starting pitching, but they might. In their two losses this month, they've scored 13 runs.

Fortunately for the Red Sox, it will get better. Josh Beckett showed no ill effects of the hyperextended knee that made him unable to appear in the All-Star game, pitching 8 shutout innings on Sunday. Jon Lester will return on Friday, and Clay Buchholz should return in August.

Other than that though? It's tough to get a read on John Lackey - those peripherals don't line up to a 6.14 ERA at all, but he's been hit hard all season. Every time he appears to be getting back on track, he takes a step backwards. The Red Sox have Kyle Weiland on the mound tonight, in what will likely be his last start before Lester takes his roster spot. Tim Wakefield turns 45 two weeks from today. After three very solid starts, Andrew Miller has been terrible in his last two, walking 9 and striking out nobody. At least 40% of their starts in August and September are going to come from this group.

Still, it's hard to be negative about a team that's winning just about every day. First of all, the bullpen has been excellent recently:

Player	W	L	ERA	IP	H	ER	HR	BB	SO	WHIP	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9
Alfredo Aceves	2	0	1.32	13.7	7	2	0	3	8	0.732	0.0	2.0	5.3
Dan Wheeler	2	0	3.00	9.0	4	3	1	1	7	0.556	1.0	1.0	7.0
Matt Albers	1	0	0.00	8.3	5	0	0	4	11	1.08	0.0	4.3	11.9
Jonathan Papelbon	0	0	4.50	8.0	9	4	1	2	12	1.375	1.1	2.3	13.5
Daniel Bard	0	0	0.00	7.7	4	0	0	2	9	0.783	0.0	2.3	10.6
Franklin Morales	0	0	0.00	5.0	1	0	0	1	4	0.4	0.0	1.8	7.2
Bobby Jenks	0	0	0.00	2.0	1	0	0	0	1	0.5	0.0	0.0	4.5
Randy Williams	0	0	13.50	2.0	3	3	0	1	2	2	0.0	4.5	9.0
Scott Atchison	0	0	4.50	2.0	2	1	0	1	1	1.5	0.0	4.5	4.5

Bard hasn't given up a run since May 23, and is continuing to establish himself as one of the better relief pitchers in the game. The real story in the bullpen, though, is Alfredo Aceves. He's been the guy to pick up the slack when the starting picher gets knocked out early, or the game ends up going 16 innings. Because of the starters' struggles, Aceves has needed to be a workhorse this month, and he has delivered in a big way. It's tough to imagine why the Yankees let Aceves go. Sure, maybe he's a bit of a headcase, and he has an injury history, but he wasn't even a free agent - he was still under team control, and the Yankees simply decided not to offer him arbitration. On a $650,000 salary, Aceves is arguably the difference between the Red Sox being ahead of the Yankees and behind them.

Enough about the pitching though:

Player	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG
Dustin Pedroia	70	61	25	6	0	6	9	5	0.410	0.486	0.803
Jacoby Ellsbury	65	58	23	4	2	4	6	9	0.397	0.446	0.741
Kevin Youkilis	61	52	19	5	0	2	5	12	0.365	0.459	0.577
Darnell McDonald	28	23	6	2	0	2	4	6	0.261	0.393	0.609
Josh Reddick	45	39	10	2	1	3	5	11	0.256	0.333	0.590
David Ortiz	50	41	9	4	0	2	9	11	0.220	0.360	0.463
Carl Crawford	5	5	2	0	0	0	0	0	0.400	0.400	0.400
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	38	32	7	0	1	2	5	9	0.219	0.316	0.469
Adrian Gonzalez	65	55	15	4	0	1	9	13	0.273	0.385	0.400
Marco Scutaro	57	50	11	0	0	3	7	10	0.220	0.316	0.400
Yamaico Navarro	21	19	4	1	0	1	2	4	0.211	0.286	0.421
Jason Varitek	23	20	4	4	0	0	2	6	0.200	0.273	0.400
Drew Sutton	7	5	1	0	0	0	2	1	0.200	0.429	0.200
J.D. Drew	45	38	6	2	0	0	6	9	0.158	0.267	0.211
Andrew Miller	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.000	0.000
Tim Wakefield	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.000	0.000
Josh Beckett	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.000	0.000
Team Total	587	505	142	34	4	26	71	111	0.281	0.374	0.519

Led by Dustin Pedroia, the Sox have scored 98 runs in their 14 games this month, four times scoring double digits. The Red Sox team OPS of .893 this month would put them 9th best *player* in the American League this season. What makes it so incredible is their depth - despite an "average: month so far from Adrian Gonzalez, they have enough other big bats to pick up the slack. Even the oft-maligned catching due of Saltalamachhia and Varitek has produced some pop in spite of low batting averages. Hitting like that will cover a LOT of flaws in the run prevention department.


Tables made with TABLEIZER.