Stop Pinch Running for Adrian Gonzalez in Close Games

Instead of writing about the newly tied American League wild card race, I am posting a write-up that I actually started during the second game of Sunday’s Red Sox vs. Yankees doubleheader. I started this when watching Lars Anderson, rather than Adrian Gonzalez, come up in a couple of key situations. Anderson was in the game because he pinch ran for Gonzalez. In this must-win game, Terry Francona had removed his best hitter for a pinch runner. It wasn’t the first time he’s done so, so I decided to go back through the season and check on what happened in other games where Gonzalez was pinch run for when the Red Sox were in close games :

May 4 vs. Los Angeles of Anaheim – Adrian Gonzalez, on sort of a crazy play, “singles” between the pitcher and catcher to score Jason Varitek with two outs in the 8^th inning, cutting the Angels lead to 2-1, and advances to second on a throwing error by Fernando Rodney. Marco Scutaro goes in to pinch run for Gonzalez. The next batter, Kevin Youkilis, lines a hard single to left – Scutaro advances only to 3B. David Ortiz flies to center, stranding him there.

The Angels get that run back in the top of the 9^th, but the Red Sox tie the game with two in the bottom of the 9^th. We go to extra innings.

  In the bottom 10^th, Marco Scutaro led off the inning with a short fly out down the left field line. This proves to be somewhat significant, as David Ortiz walks and Jed Lowrie singles. The Red Sox leave runners on first and third.

In the bottom of the 12^th, Scutaro hits a one out single. The next batter, Kevin Youkilis, doubles, and Marco Scutaro is thrown out at the plate. The guy who was pinch running for the Red Sox best hitter, the guy who is in the game because he supposedly is a baserunning advantage over Gonzalez, makes the out on the bases. This proves significant again, as Darnell McDonald, the next batter, singles, and Youkilis is only able to advance to third.

The Angels won the game on Bobby Abreu two-run single in the top of the 13^th.

June 4 vs. Oakland – Adrian Gonzalez singles to lead off the bottom of 10^th inning, tied 7-7. Drew Sutton pinch runs. Advances to second on a one-out groundout. Was stranded there.

In the 11^th, Jacoby Ellsbury hit a two-out double to score Jarrod Saltalamacchia, tying the game 8-8. With the winning run on second base, and knowing that Sutton, rather than Adrian Gonzalez, was “in the hole,” Bob Geren had Andrew Bailey intentionally walk Dustin Pedroia. Bailey then struck out Sutton. Pinch running for Gonzalez effectively took the bat out of the hands of BOTH Pedroia and Gonzalez.

In the 13^th inning, we had a remarkably similar situation. With the score still tied 8-8, Ellsbury hit a leadoff single. With Pedroia at the plate, Ellsbury (showing low awareness of the situation) stole second base. Geren had Michael Wuertz intentionally walk Pedroia once again. Wuertz then induced a soft lineout from Sutton to end the inning. That is now twice that both Pedroia and Gonzalez were unable to hit with the game on the line.

The Red Sox did end up winning this game in the 14^th on an RBI single by JD Drew, but the fact remains that Francona’s management strategy cost the Red Sox four at bats by two all-star hitters.

August 8 @ Minnesota –Gonzalez singles with two outs in the top of the 9^th with the game tied 1-1. After advancing to second on a Dustin Pedroia single, Darnell McDonald is brought in to pinch run. McDonald scores from second on a single by David Ortiz, a ball Gonzalez may not have scored on. So this time, the pinch running worked, right? Not so fast. The next batter, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, doubled, scoring Pedroia, making the game 3-1.

The only way this pinch running made a difference is Gonzalez had been sent by the third base coach AND been thrown out on the play. There is something between a 5 and 20 percent chance of this.

September 5  @ Toronto –Gonzalez walks with two outs in top of the 10^th inning. Mike Aviles pinch runs. David Ortiz grounds out, Aviles is stranded.

Gonzalez’s spot in the batting order never comes up again. Dan Wheeler gives up a game winning home run to Brett Lawrie as the Red Sox season begins crumbling beneath them.

September 25 @ New York – (In the second game of a doubleheader, the slumping Red Sox are down to a half game ahead of the Rays.) Gonzalez leads off the top of the 9^th with a single off of Mariano Rivera. Lars Anderson pinch runs. After advancing to second on a Mike Aviles sacrifice bunt, and advancing to third on a JD Drew groundout to first base, Anderson is stranded there when Mariano Rivera strikes out Jarrod Saltalamacchia.

This chain of events seemed especially foolish to me. First off, with expanded rosters, LARS ANDERSON was the best pinch runner Francona could come up with???? Anderson is almost as slow as Gonzalez. He STILL needed to waste an out getting him to second. This is NOT Dave Roberts pinch running for Kevin Millar, for three important reasons: 1 . The Red Sox were losing that game. They absolutely needed to score one run then, or their season was over; 2. Dave Roberts was appreciably faster than Kevin Millar. Fast enough that he could take second base without wasting an out, and was able to score from second on a single, on a ball that Millar likely would not have been able to. Anderson couldn’t steal second, and isn’t any more likely than Gonzalez to score from second on a single. 3. Adrian Gonzalez is the Red Sox best hitter. Kevin Millar was not. Adrian Gonzalez should only be removed when his replacement has a significantly higher chance of scoring that inning. The chance of scoring off of Mariano Rivera are always slim, and Lars Anderson’s aren’t any better than Adrian Gonzalez.

In the 11^th inning Lars Anderson leads off with a weak pop foul to first base.

In the 13^th inning with Dustin Pedroia on first base, and with two outs, Lars Anderson is struck out by Aaron Laffey.

The Red Sox went on to win this game on a 14^th inning Jacoby Ellsbury home run, but again, Francona put his best bat on the bench in a game the team pretty much needed to win.

Conclusion – Francona pinch ran for Gonzalez in four tie games and one close game in which they were losing. Those five pinch runners scored a total of one time, and it was a sequence of events in which Gonzalez would have had between an 80%-95% chance of scoring himself.

When Gonzalez’s spot in the order came up later in these games, his replacements went a combined  1 for 6. The one guy who did get a hit, Marco Scutaro, ended up getting thrown out on the bases, which I’m sure Adrian Gonzalez is perfectly capable of doing on his own.

It could be stated, of course, that the Red Sox WON three of the four tie games that they pinch ran for Gonzalez in (and also lost the game they were already losing). While true, these managerial decisions made these victories less likely. It wasn’t Francona’s managerial expertise that led to Jacoby Ellsbury hitting a three run homer against Scott Proctor, a guy with an ERA of close to 7 since 2008. Gonzalez staying in the game might not have helped them win earlier. The decision to remove Gonzalez had ZERO positive impact on the fact they won in the end.

I say this not to dump on Francona at a time where it seems convenient to do so. Francona is more willing than any manager in the league to use Jonathan Papelbon in tie games on the road, a decision that has a much higher positive potential impact than removing Adrian Gonzalez for a pinch runner has negative. He deserves credit for that. However, it needs to be pointed out - the Red Sox played 5 games this year that went 13 innings or more. Adrian Gonzalez – again, their BEST hitter – was not in there for the end of three of them. This isn’t just frustrating – it’s a sub-optimal way to manage a team.  The fact that these sub-optimal decisions didn’t always lead to losses show that managerial decisions are often unrelated to the final outcome. The best managers are the ones who do the most to optimize his team’s chances of winning. In these cases, Terry Francona didn’t do that.

Red Sox - Twins Spring Training Liveblog!

7:05. Is it ridiculous to listen, keep score of, and blog about a Spring Training game? Absolutely not. I'm more than ready for my fix of Jon Rish and Joe Castiglione. Happy 2011!

7:09: Darnell McDonald and Jed Lowrie batting 1-2. While 2010 was a disappointment, these two were two of the pleasant surprises, with McDonald becoming a super fourth outfielder and Jed Lowrie coming back from his various maladies to be a fantastic offensively the last couple months, delivering a .287/.381/.526. My guess is that, while Scutaro will be the nominal starter, Lowrie will find his way into the lineup four or five times a week.

7:17: Sounds like a nice play by Jose Iglesias. How long until he's forcing his way into the big league shortstop conversation? Unless Lowrie is a complete disaster defensively, I'm going to guess not until next spring training at the earliest. Iglesias is only 21, and while his glove is supposedly major league ready, .285/.315/.357 at AA Portland is still a long way from the majors. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Sox start him out at AA once again this year.

7:24: Does anyone really believe Carl Pavano considered returning to the Yankees? Did Brian Cashman really consider signing him, but not have any interest in Rafael Soriano? If so, is Cashman the most overrated executive in the history of professional sports? Has anyone ever done so little with so much?

7:29: Twins fans should be thrilled about the Danny Valencia era. After a few years for Brian Buscher, Nicky Punto and Joe Crede, Valencia showed good patience, good defense, and promising power. If they can get .300/.350/.450 with 15 home runs, he'll be worth 3 or 4 wins over what the Twins were getting for most of the decade. He's already the best 3B they've had since Corey Koskie's best seasons.

7:42: Interesting the Buchholz is relieving Beckett today. Both guys obviously went in opposite directions last year. Beckett has to be the biggest question mark on the club right now. Were all of his problems due to the back injury, or were there other mechanics issues? He seems to have less balance in his delivery, due to what seems to be a slightly higher leg kick. Buchholz, meanwhile, had an excellent year, but will need to improve his strikeout rate. If he can increase his strikeout rate per nine innings from the 6.2 it was last year to around 7.5, and keep his home run rate so low, he's an under-the-radar Cy Young Award candidate.

8:12: Hideki Okajima starts off his spring training by allowing a single to a lefty who hit .275 in AA last season. Usually you can't read too much into Spring Training stats, but if Okajima gets hit hard this spring, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him released. He was nontendered initially before being signed at a lower contract.

8:20: Three run double by Joe Benson. According to Jon Rish, Okajima is sitting at 85 if the stadium gun is accurate. I hate to put emphasis so early in spring, but there's a short time to evaluate and there are many people competing for only a couple roster spots.

8:35: Jeff Bailey! Good to see you! Bailey hit 78 homers as a 1B/DH for the Pawtucket from 2004-2009, before signing with the Diamondbacks as a minor league free agent before the 2010 season. Bailey is 32 now, and probably could've had Brian Daubach's career if he'd been in the right place at the right time. He has 176 career minor league homers, but he'll need to pick up the pace, though, to catch Rick Lancellotti for the minor league record - he's 100 behind. You can read an excellent interview with Lancellotti right here.

8:52: Che-Hsuan Lin is in the game after replacing Mike Cameron as a pinch runner. Lin is probably my sleeper in the Red Sox organization. He has a good, patient approach at the plate and excellent range in the outfield, covering the gaps effortlessly. Even if his power never develops, his defense and speed may carry him as a major league backup. If he can develop good gap power to the point where he can be good for 30-35 doubles a year, his pitch selection might make him a useful leadoff hitter.

8:57: Solo homer by Lars Anderson to get the Red Sox on the board. Anderson has fallen fast on prospect lists, but he's always been young for his class. His power is still excellent, but he simply strikes out way too much. 109 strikeouts in 409 at bats last year is about in line with where he's been the last couple years. If he's going to strike out that often in AAA, he's likely to do so one every 2.5 AB in the majors. It's hard to be successful in the majors at that rate, so he's really going to need to shorten up his swing and make more consistent contact.

9:20: Going to the 9th - Wagner/Linares/Spears will lead the stunning comeback. Chuck James won't know what hit him.

9:21: Mark Wagner did his part. Homer to deep left, 8-4 Twins.

9:28: The comeback is not to be. Chuck James strikes out Daniel Nava to finish it off. The Twins have a 1-0 lead in the all-important Mayor's Cup.

After a long winter, baseball is here.