Instead of writing about the newly tied
American League wild card race, I am posting a write-up that I actually started
during the second game of Sunday’s Red Sox vs. Yankees doubleheader. I started
this when watching Lars Anderson, rather than Adrian Gonzalez, come up in a
couple of key situations. Anderson was in the game because he pinch ran for
Gonzalez. In this must-win game, Terry Francona had removed his best hitter for
a pinch runner. It wasn’t the first time he’s done so, so I decided to go back
through the season and check on what happened in other games where Gonzalez was
pinch run for when the Red Sox were in close games :
May 4 vs. Los Angeles of Anaheim – Adrian
Gonzalez, on sort of a crazy play, “singles” between the pitcher and catcher to
score Jason Varitek with two outs in the 8th inning, cutting the
Angels lead to 2-1, and advances to second on a throwing error by Fernando
Rodney. Marco Scutaro goes in to pinch run for Gonzalez. The next batter, Kevin
Youkilis, lines a hard single to left – Scutaro advances only to 3B. David
Ortiz flies to center, stranding him there.
The Angels get that run back in the top
of the 9th, but the Red Sox tie the game with two in the bottom of
the 9th. We go to extra innings.
In the bottom 10th, Marco Scutaro
led off the inning with a short fly out down the left field line. This proves
to be somewhat significant, as David Ortiz walks and Jed Lowrie singles. The
Red Sox leave runners on first and third.
In the bottom of the 12th,
Scutaro hits a one out single. The next batter, Kevin Youkilis, doubles, and
Marco Scutaro is thrown out at the plate. The guy who was pinch running for the
Red Sox best hitter, the guy who is in the game because he supposedly is a
baserunning advantage over Gonzalez, makes the out on the bases. This proves
significant again, as Darnell McDonald, the next batter, singles, and Youkilis
is only able to advance to third.
The Angels won the game on Bobby Abreu
two-run single in the top of the 13th.
June 4 vs. Oakland – Adrian Gonzalez
singles to lead off the bottom of 10th inning, tied 7-7. Drew Sutton
pinch runs. Advances to second on a one-out groundout. Was stranded there.
In the 11th, Jacoby Ellsbury hit
a two-out double to score Jarrod Saltalamacchia, tying the game 8-8. With the
winning run on second base, and knowing that Sutton, rather than Adrian
Gonzalez, was “in the hole,” Bob Geren had Andrew Bailey intentionally walk
Dustin Pedroia. Bailey then struck out Sutton. Pinch running for Gonzalez
effectively took the bat out of the hands of BOTH Pedroia and Gonzalez.
In the 13th inning, we had a
remarkably similar situation. With the score still tied 8-8, Ellsbury hit a
leadoff single. With Pedroia at the plate, Ellsbury (showing low awareness of
the situation) stole second base. Geren had Michael Wuertz intentionally walk
Pedroia once again. Wuertz then induced a soft lineout from Sutton to end the
inning. That is now twice that both Pedroia and Gonzalez were unable to hit
with the game on the line.
The Red Sox did end up winning this game
in the 14th on an RBI single by JD Drew, but the fact remains that
Francona’s management strategy cost the Red Sox four at bats by two all-star
hitters.
August 8 @ Minnesota –Gonzalez singles
with two outs in the top of the 9th with the game tied 1-1. After
advancing to second on a Dustin Pedroia single, Darnell McDonald is brought in
to pinch run. McDonald scores from second on a single by David Ortiz, a ball
Gonzalez may not have scored on. So this time, the pinch running worked, right?
Not so fast. The next batter, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, doubled, scoring Pedroia,
making the game 3-1.
The only way this pinch running made a
difference is Gonzalez had been sent by the third base coach AND been thrown
out on the play. There is something between a 5 and 20 percent chance of this.
September 5 @ Toronto –Gonzalez walks with two outs in top
of the 10th inning. Mike Aviles pinch runs. David Ortiz grounds out,
Aviles is stranded.
Gonzalez’s spot in the batting order
never comes up again. Dan Wheeler gives up a game winning home run to Brett
Lawrie as the Red Sox season begins crumbling beneath them.
September 25 @ New York – (In the second
game of a doubleheader, the slumping Red Sox are down to a half game ahead of
the Rays.) Gonzalez leads off the top of the 9th with a single off
of Mariano Rivera. Lars Anderson pinch runs. After advancing to second on a
Mike Aviles sacrifice bunt, and advancing to third on a JD Drew groundout to
first base, Anderson is stranded there when Mariano Rivera strikes out Jarrod
Saltalamacchia.
This
chain of events seemed especially foolish to me. First off, with expanded
rosters, LARS ANDERSON was the best pinch runner Francona could come up with????
Anderson is almost as slow as Gonzalez. He STILL needed to waste an out getting
him to second. This is NOT Dave Roberts pinch running for Kevin Millar, for
three important reasons: 1 . The Red Sox were losing that game. They absolutely
needed to score one run then, or their season was over; 2. Dave Roberts was
appreciably faster than Kevin Millar. Fast enough that he could take second
base without wasting an out, and was able to score from second on a single, on
a ball that Millar likely would not have been able to. Anderson couldn’t steal
second, and isn’t any more likely than Gonzalez to score from second on a
single. 3. Adrian Gonzalez is the Red Sox best hitter. Kevin Millar was not.
Adrian Gonzalez should only be removed when his replacement has a significantly
higher chance of scoring that inning. The chance of scoring off of Mariano
Rivera are always slim, and Lars Anderson’s aren’t any better than Adrian
Gonzalez.
In the 11th inning Lars Anderson
leads off with a weak pop foul to first base.
In the 13th inning with Dustin
Pedroia on first base, and with two outs, Lars Anderson is struck out by Aaron
Laffey.
The Red Sox went on to win this game on
a 14th inning Jacoby Ellsbury home run, but again, Francona put his
best bat on the bench in a game the team pretty much needed to win.
Conclusion – Francona pinch ran for
Gonzalez in four tie games and one close game in which they were losing. Those
five pinch runners scored a total of one time, and it was a sequence of events
in which Gonzalez would have had between an 80%-95% chance of scoring himself.
When Gonzalez’s spot in the order came
up later in these games, his replacements went a combined 1 for 6. The one guy who did get a hit, Marco
Scutaro, ended up getting thrown out on the bases, which I’m sure Adrian
Gonzalez is perfectly capable of doing on his own.
It could be stated, of course, that the
Red Sox WON three of the four tie games that they pinch ran for Gonzalez in
(and also lost the game they were already losing). While true, these managerial
decisions made these victories less likely. It wasn’t Francona’s managerial
expertise that led to Jacoby Ellsbury hitting a three run homer against Scott
Proctor, a guy with an ERA of close to 7 since 2008. Gonzalez staying in the
game might not have helped them win earlier. The decision to remove Gonzalez
had ZERO positive impact on the fact they won in the end.
I say this not to dump on Francona at a
time where it seems convenient to do so. Francona is more willing than any
manager in the league to use Jonathan Papelbon in tie games on the road, a
decision that has a much higher positive potential impact than removing Adrian
Gonzalez for a pinch runner has negative. He deserves credit for that. However,
it needs to be pointed out - the Red Sox played 5 games this year that went 13
innings or more. Adrian Gonzalez – again, their BEST hitter – was not in there
for the end of three of them. This isn’t just frustrating – it’s a sub-optimal
way to manage a team. The fact that
these sub-optimal decisions didn’t always lead to losses show that managerial
decisions are often unrelated to the final outcome. The best managers are the
ones who do the most to optimize his team’s chances of winning. In these cases,
Terry Francona didn’t do that.
