Greetings, I've done this post several times in the past. Real life is going to cause some interference during the day. Having a one-year old is pretty cool, but it does interfere with writing about baseball for 14 hours straight.
12:08: Strike one to Ian Kinsler. I'm going to go out on a limb and declare the Tigers the winners in year one of the Kinsler-for-Fielder deal.
12:10: Torii Hunter looked bad on that strikeout. He's a free agent after this season, and while he had a poor season he was generally a very good player for the last ten years. From 2004 to 2013 he hit .284/.343/.471. And despite only being a 0.4 bWAR player in 2014, it pushed his career number up to 50.3. I wouldn't vote for him, but there are worse players in the Hall of Fame.
12:21: Justin Verlander wasn't very good this year either, but his peripherals did come around in the second half, as he cut out those walks that killed him early in the year. No idea how he'll pitch today, but my feeling is that he'll be a good pitcher again in the future.
12:24: Speaking of peripherals, Stephen Strasburg's were awesome this year. League-best 242 strikeouts, and a sterling 2.94 FIP. My only playoff prediction is that I think he's going to be a monster. He's at a career high for innings, but he cruised into the end of the regular season.
12:31: Alex Avila has exactly 11 homers and 47 RBIs in each of the past two seasons. In 2012 he drove in 48.
12:41: Time Warner Cable isn't making this any easier. Also, Justin Verlander is pitching a no-hitter. Am I doing this right?
12:44: Tigers shortstop was one of the worst positions in baseball this season. The player they settled on, Andrew Romine, plays average defense and hit .227/.279/.275, which is almost exactly his career line over parts of four season. For comparison's sake, their starting SS on opening day was Alex Gonzalez, who hit .167/.219/.233. I expect to see Eugenio Suarez at some point this weekend.
12:48: That always scares me. Sweet grab by Chen.
12:53: Dennis Eckersley is 60? Good grief.
12:57: I started following baseball in 1988, and Dennis Eckersley's transition to relief ace, redefining the closer role, was one of the biggest stories of that time. To someone who started watching baseball this season, that would be like someone telling me about 1962.
12:59: Schoop breaks up the no-hitter. For those of you following on GameCast or otherwise on the internet, it is pronounced like the mouthwash, not like that Salt N' Peppa tune.
1:04: Speaking of Eck, pretty prescient of him, noticing that Verlander was only throwing Markakis fastballs, an he finally turned on one. Even if it gets called back, that was a rocket.
1:12: Call stands. Alice has awoken. Time for a quick call to the bullpen for a pitching change, and then some play time. I will check in periodically (maybe). More to come tonight!
2:09: Quick check-in. There were some home runs while I was gone. Anyhow, an observation that is tangentially related to baseball. When the televisionis on, Alice (my daughter) really reacts to it. During that sweet 5-4-3 double play in the top of the fifth, the announcer got appropriately excited, and Alice started yelling along with it. It was awesome.
2:33: I like the move to bring in Sanchez. Given the Tigers bullpen problems, it's worth the risk. Now I'm on record, feel free to quote me when this blows up.
2:45: FoxSports just twittered a picture of its pregame desk crew. Frank Thomas and Gabe Kapler are sitting next to each other. Do not mess with that side of the table.
5:18: So some stuff happened in the last two and a half hours? I can't provide a ton of analysis because I wasn't watching closely, and what can be said about the first game other than "The Tigers bullpen stinks." Joba Chamberlain blowing the game brings me joy.
5:26: Can Jake Peavy take the duck boat he bought into the San Francisco Bay? Because that would be kind of cool. He's clear outpitched Strasburg today, against a very good Washington lineup. It's a little bit surprising, but Peavy is 12th among active pitchers in bWAR so maybe it shouldn't be.
5:49: All three Giants pitchers in the sixth inning are ex-Red Sox. Jake Peavy and Javier Lopez people know about. Hunter Strickland was an 18th-round pick in 2007 and was traded to Pittsburgh (with infielder Argenis Diaz) in exchange for Adam LaRoche. Nine days later, the Sox flipped LaRoche for Casey Kotchman.
6:00: I'm not in love with the playing of God Bless America during the seventh inning stretch, but I am in love with it when it is played by the Marine Corps Marching Band.
6:38: Two games at once is easy. Two games at once while giving the baby a bath and cleaning the basement might be beyond my can.
7:03: Sergio Romo seems like one of those players who, by the time he finally got credit for being good, stopped being good.
7:27: Former Supreme Court Justice Jon Jay strikes out against current Supreme Commander of Worlds Clayton Kershaw.
7:41: Adrian Gonzalez has a reputation as a cool cat, but he was obviously pretty fired up there. I don't think Wainwright hit Puig on purpose, but if he did he's a fool.
7:45: Carl Crawford really had a nice bouneback season this year. He's not the player he was signed to be in 2011, but he posted a 2.4 bWAR after totaling 2.3 from 2011 to 2013. His decline is still stark - a player with an outside shot at Hall of Fame credentials four years ago is well, well short of that. Nice to see him drive in the go-ahead run.
8:29. I missed two innings putting Alice to be. In that time, Clayton Kershaw faced six batters and struck out five of them. I'm starting to think he's good at baseball.
8:34: Hey remember three months ago when Matheny took Wainwright ahead of Kershaw to start the All-Star game?
8:45: The Cardinals' relievers would pitch better if they were given numbers that indicated they weren't going to be cut in spring training.
8:55: Of course the Ashburn Award winner homers.
8:56: Adrian Gonzalez is a good defensive first baseman. Also, he led the National League in RBI despite having his worst full offensive season.
9:01: Hanley Ramirez's helmet keeps falling off. Does he need a tighter hemlet? I think that would annoy me.
9:11: Puig really closed the gap there. Great angle to keep Holliday at second base.
9:11: Three straight hits off Kershaw? What the what is going on?
9:13: There's at least a 10% chance Kershaw loaded the bases on purpose to give himself a challenge.
9:14: Pete Kozma getting put on the Cardinals postseason roster was insane, so of course Matheny is going to turn up a Yost and Kozma will hit a grand slam.
9:18: The BABIP God's are apparently unhappy with Clayton Kershaw.
9:26: Raise your hand if you expected Kershaw to give up five runs in an inning.
9:34: Before that Peralta groundout the Cardinals were 6 for 6 on balls in play in the inning. A few of the balls off Kershaw, especially the Carpenter double and Molina hit, were well struck. But that's some busted luck right there.
9:46: Yeah, totally lost track that the Angels-Royals game was set for 9:37. I am rusty.
9:51: The Royals didn't get anyone on base in the first, so they were unable to have anyone thrown out on the bases. Fortunately the Angels stepped up there.
10:03: Adrian Gonzalez goes boom. 10-8. This playoffs has been crazy.
10:10: I don't get how Pat Neshek can pitch like that.
10:11: Both games are between innings. Why are both games in between innings. More baseball please.
10:14: The third most famous author of the Federalist Papers is 2 for 4.
10:16: Offense is up in the playoffs this year because of bunting? Thanks Harold Reynolds, for actively making me miss Tim McCarver.
10:19: Joba Chamberlain's ERA is 108.00 in the playoffs. Couldn't happen to a more deserving fellow.
10:22: Legitimately great bun there by Moustakas to beat the shift. I understand stud hitters not bunting on the overshift - you want David Ortiz swinging for the fences. But if a team is going to shift like that for someone who hit .212/.271/.361 then yeah, bunt yourself onto first.
10:25: Then having your leadoff hitter sacrifice bunt in the third inning. Sigh.
10:32: Yasiel Puig up with a runner on third and two outs, down by one in the bottom of the ninth. Against a guy who throws 100. I likey.
10:36: And Mighty Yasiel has struck out. The Wainwright-Kershaw duel ends 10-9. I think you won if you bet the over.
10:38: Meanwhile a few miles south in Anaheim... Nice to see Yordano Ventura bouncing back from his tough appearance in the wild card game. Doesn't appear to have any effect, though I wonder if he'll be on a shorter pitch count.
10:55: Salvador Perez leadoff single. Does Infante bunt to get the Moustakas and Escobar?
10:57: Nope, Yost resisted the urge. I guess that's improvement!
11:05: Ventura retired 11 in a row but has given up two straight singles. That's not necessarily concerning, but he left that pitch to Aybar up and down the middle. Worth keeping an eye on.
11:07: The double play is the pitcher's best friend.
11:34: Ventura walks Trout, and Albert Pujols is coming up. Pujols is 0 for 6 in the series. Good luck, kid.
11:36: Worse pitchers than Yordano Ventura have given up game-tying hits to Pujols. That said, Ventura seems to be overthrowing a bit. I don't know if I'd let him face Kendrick here. Very dangerous situation.
11:38: Kendrick grounds harmlessly to third. 1-1 through six.
11:40: There is a fly in my family room and it is huge and it is annoying me.
11:43: Baldwinsville's own Jason Grilli on for the seventh. He struggled in the first half with Pittsburgh but pitched better after the trade out west. He was certainly more effective than Ernesto Frieri in that sort-of challenge trade.
11:52: Ventura for the seventh. At only 85 pitches and Herrera on the shelf I can see it, but I guess I'm a little surprised. Finnegan should be ready behind him.
12:03: I've had to power cycle my modem five times since starting this, twelve hours ago. Thanks for the consistency, Time Warner.
12:08: Yost makes a good move, going to Wade Davis in the tie game. And then of course C.J. Cron rips a first-pitch curveball for a double down the left-field line.
12:13: Great time for a TOOTBLAN!
12:15: Seriously, I get wanting to get to third with less than two outs. But the top of the order was coming up. He's already on second.
12:16: And I'm excited for the morons who, if the Royals win, will credit "small ball." The Angels are the ones wasting outs. Pitching and defense isn't small ball.
12:20: I really want the Royals to not score right here just to see what Yost does in another tie game in the bottom of the ninth. Stick with Davis? Go to Holland? The Mystery Box?
12:29: I know Alex Gordon is a much tougher out than Salvador Perez, but that run is important, too. Much better chance the Royals put up a crooked number this inning, making a potential comback in the bottom of the inning a significantly tougher task.
12:31: Got out of it. Trout/Pujols to start the bottom of the ninth.
12:34: I'm not sure there's a right person to face Mike Trout in the tie game of the bottom of the ninth. But Wade Davis and Greg Hollard are available, with all due respect to Jason Frasor it shouldn't be him.
12:35: And Frasor pops Trout up. Shows you what I know.
12:38: Pujols pops up too. Ned Yost's moves don't have consequences.
12:39: Extra innings again! Who needs sleep?!
12:44: Huston Street on for a second inning of work, and he strikes out Omar Infante. Pretty amazing that Street had zero games this season where he recorded more than three outs. The rigidity of modern bullpen usage drives me bats.
12:53: Brandon Finnegan needs only one pitch to get his first out. Did you know he was in college earlier this year and selected in the 2014 draft? Did you? Huh? Huh? Did you? The blue cheese is baked right in, folks.
12:59: Going to the 11th. Excellent 3-6-3 by the Royals there. Very impressive play for Hosmer to field, throw, and get back to the bag in plenty of time to receive th e relay.
1:06: Two-run homer. Eric Hosmer. Incredible.
1:21: Greg Holland is good. I can't believe the "save your closer in case your worse relievers don't blow it" keeps working.
1:24: OH MY GOD STOP CALLING HIM BIG GAME JAMES.
1:25: Error extends the game for Mike Trout. Trout is probably good enough to hit a three-run homer with only one man on base, so the Royals should be careful.
1:25: But seriously stop with the Big Game James. He's pitched in seven playoff games and is 2-4 with a 5.26 ERA. He's an awful pitcher in big games. He's done his best work in April. We can call him Cold Game James or something. But he absolutely cannot take James Worthy's nickname.
1:27: Mike Trout strikes out to end it. He is 0 for 8 in the two games. Four games today. Three decided by one run, the other going into extra innings. It is very late here in the northeast portion of the midwest, so I shall depart. Thanks if you've been following along. Also, seek help.
Showing posts with label Washington Nationals. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Washington Nationals. Show all posts
Friday, October 03, 2014
Friday, January 18, 2013
Examining the Morse - Jaso - Cole deal
The A's, Mariners and Nationals completed a three-way deal yesterday. The most famous player in the deal, first baseman/corner outfielder/slugger Mike Morse is headed from Washington, DC to Washington state, catcher John Jaso heads south on I-5 from Seattle to Oakland, and minor league pitchers A.J. Cole and Blake Treinen. To clear a spot for Jaso, the Athletics also designated catcher George Kottaras for assignment. The Mariners and GM Jack Zduriencik are catching a lot of flak from the trade. Jeff Sullivan at Lookout Landing and Dave Cameron at USS Mariner (both of who also contribute at FanGraphs) both pilloried the deal. Cameron even ventured to call the trade "Bavasi-esque" which is a pretty powerful slur in Marinerland.
Tuesday, February 28, 2012
Ryan Zimmerman's signs $100M extension
Earlier this month, I ranked some of the highest paid players in baseball based on how much they'd be worth to their teams, relative to their contracts. With that in mind, I thought I'd take a look at how Ryan Zimmerman's extension measures up. The contract will keep him in Washington through the 2019 season, and includes a $18M team option for 2020, or a $2M buyout if that option is not exercised. In total, Zimmerman is owed $116M over the next eight years. A lot of money, yes, but is Zimmerman worth it?
My analysis says yes. Sure, Zimmerman's 2011 season, where he played only 101 games, is a concern. However, I can't think anyone would have more information on his health than the Nationals do. And since the Nats seem to have moved, in a general sense, toward knowing what they're doing, I'm going to give them the benefit of the doubt. In both 2009 and 2010, Zimmerman was a 5+ WAR player. That's easily worth what the Nationals are paying him.
I have Zimmerman estimated at about 31.1 WAR over the next 8 years, a number that would be worth about $156M, $40M more than he's actually scheduled to earn. That would rate him the fourth best of the megacontracts, behind only Braun, Tulowitzki and Kemp. Over the course of his contracted term with the Nationals, they're getting a great value.
Of course, Zimmerman was already under contract for the first two years, so I suppose the better question is whether he'll be worth the $100M from 2014 to 2019. My system has him worth 9 WAR over the next two years, and about 22.1 over the next six (covered by his extension). So obviously a big chunk of his value is coming now. However, think about eight years ago. Back in 2004, $20M a year was a massive contract, and $14M was considered extensive. Miguel Tejada's contract with the Orioles was 6 years, for $72M, an average annual value of only $12M - this, for a player regarded (correctly) as elite. While Zimmerman might not be worth quite the $18M he's due in 2019, at age 34, it's possible that he will. What's more likely is that he's worth so much more than the $14M he's due in most of the years before that nobody will care. Running his numbers, I estimate Zimmerman to be worth $113.3M over the six years covered by his extension - meaning the Nationals are taking a sensible gamble.
I suppose this means it's time to adjust our expectations of what a ONEHUNDREDMILLION player is. Certainly, this story got more press than it would have if Zimmerman's extension had been for merely $95M. The fact is, a non-elite-but-still-very-good player can be worth $15M-$18M a year now. With each win being worth something between four and five million, that's the new math. Be careful though - if signing non-elite players inhibits your chances to add an elite one, you've made a mistake. Bryce Harper is likely under team control until 2017, at which point the Nationals will have only two years and $34M committed to Zimmerman. A significant amount, but nothing that should smother them.
All in all, Zimmerman's contract rates as a smart risk for the Nationals.
My analysis says yes. Sure, Zimmerman's 2011 season, where he played only 101 games, is a concern. However, I can't think anyone would have more information on his health than the Nationals do. And since the Nats seem to have moved, in a general sense, toward knowing what they're doing, I'm going to give them the benefit of the doubt. In both 2009 and 2010, Zimmerman was a 5+ WAR player. That's easily worth what the Nationals are paying him.
I have Zimmerman estimated at about 31.1 WAR over the next 8 years, a number that would be worth about $156M, $40M more than he's actually scheduled to earn. That would rate him the fourth best of the megacontracts, behind only Braun, Tulowitzki and Kemp. Over the course of his contracted term with the Nationals, they're getting a great value.
Of course, Zimmerman was already under contract for the first two years, so I suppose the better question is whether he'll be worth the $100M from 2014 to 2019. My system has him worth 9 WAR over the next two years, and about 22.1 over the next six (covered by his extension). So obviously a big chunk of his value is coming now. However, think about eight years ago. Back in 2004, $20M a year was a massive contract, and $14M was considered extensive. Miguel Tejada's contract with the Orioles was 6 years, for $72M, an average annual value of only $12M - this, for a player regarded (correctly) as elite. While Zimmerman might not be worth quite the $18M he's due in 2019, at age 34, it's possible that he will. What's more likely is that he's worth so much more than the $14M he's due in most of the years before that nobody will care. Running his numbers, I estimate Zimmerman to be worth $113.3M over the six years covered by his extension - meaning the Nationals are taking a sensible gamble.
I suppose this means it's time to adjust our expectations of what a ONEHUNDREDMILLION player is. Certainly, this story got more press than it would have if Zimmerman's extension had been for merely $95M. The fact is, a non-elite-but-still-very-good player can be worth $15M-$18M a year now. With each win being worth something between four and five million, that's the new math. Be careful though - if signing non-elite players inhibits your chances to add an elite one, you've made a mistake. Bryce Harper is likely under team control until 2017, at which point the Nationals will have only two years and $34M committed to Zimmerman. A significant amount, but nothing that should smother them.
All in all, Zimmerman's contract rates as a smart risk for the Nationals.
Wednesday, September 07, 2011
Stephen Strasburg Excellent in Return
As you probably have heard by now, Stephen Strasburg returned to the Nationals' rotation last night, pitching five strong innings, allowing only two hits, striking out 4 and walking nobody. What is impressive is that this performance is pretty well in line with what he's always done in the majors. Strasburg has now started 13 games. He's pitched 73 innings, has a 2.73 career ERA striking out 96, walking only 17, giving up 58 hits, only five of which have left the park. That's an average performance of 5.2 innings, 4 hits, 7 K's, 1 walk. He's also never hit a batter in the major leagues. It's amazing for someone to have such dominant, swing-and-miss stuff and also such great control.
Yet, we're a little worried, right? A lot of the talk leading up to the event wasn't how awesome it was that he was coming back, but whether the Nationals were rushing him.Part of this, I think, is so that people can set themselves up to "blame" the Nats if Strasburg does get hurt again. "Oh he blew out his arm again? Doesn't surprise me - those stupid Natinals can't even get the name correct on their jersey." Rob Dibble went so far as accusing the Nationals of bringing Strasburg back early in order to "sell tickets and put butts in seats."We just got through this with Mark Prior, who WAS pushed pretty hard. It's tough to see guys this talented break down.
That's not entirely fair. First off - why are we interviewing Rob Dibble about it? He's the same guy who said Strasburg should "stop crying" and "suck it up" when his arm first started hurting - a hurt which proved to be a torn elbow ligament. Now he thinks they need to baby Strasburg so that he's good for 15 years? Let's all agree that everything Rob Dibble says about Strasburg is wrong and not listen to what he says anymore. As I noted above, Strasburg averages less than 6 innings per start in his career. He's thrown 100 pitches zero times. Exactly how slow are they supposed to be with Strasburg - have him pitch one inning a month until his 25th birthday? No, if Strasburg does get hurt again, it will be for the reasons Chris O'Leary and Don Cooper said before he got hurt in the first place - his delivery puts a lot of stress on his elbow. Watching him last night, his angle does seem a "little" lower, but he's still got that inverted-W thing going on. (Side note. Isn't an Inverted-W just an M?) His general mechanics are pretty much the same. I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but he's probably getting hurt again.
Maybe he won't, though. So, instead of watching every Strasburg start holding my breath, wondering if this will be the night his elbow goes pop, I'm going to enjoy it. In terms of stuff, he has the best in the majors right now,better than Verlander, better than Felix Hernandez. He doesn't have anything near their durability, but even they don't dominate hitters like Strasburg does. He's not a prospect, he's a great pitcher, already. So let's enjoy watching him pitch every chance we get.
Yet, we're a little worried, right? A lot of the talk leading up to the event wasn't how awesome it was that he was coming back, but whether the Nationals were rushing him.Part of this, I think, is so that people can set themselves up to "blame" the Nats if Strasburg does get hurt again. "Oh he blew out his arm again? Doesn't surprise me - those stupid Natinals can't even get the name correct on their jersey." Rob Dibble went so far as accusing the Nationals of bringing Strasburg back early in order to "sell tickets and put butts in seats."We just got through this with Mark Prior, who WAS pushed pretty hard. It's tough to see guys this talented break down.
That's not entirely fair. First off - why are we interviewing Rob Dibble about it? He's the same guy who said Strasburg should "stop crying" and "suck it up" when his arm first started hurting - a hurt which proved to be a torn elbow ligament. Now he thinks they need to baby Strasburg so that he's good for 15 years? Let's all agree that everything Rob Dibble says about Strasburg is wrong and not listen to what he says anymore. As I noted above, Strasburg averages less than 6 innings per start in his career. He's thrown 100 pitches zero times. Exactly how slow are they supposed to be with Strasburg - have him pitch one inning a month until his 25th birthday? No, if Strasburg does get hurt again, it will be for the reasons Chris O'Leary and Don Cooper said before he got hurt in the first place - his delivery puts a lot of stress on his elbow. Watching him last night, his angle does seem a "little" lower, but he's still got that inverted-W thing going on. (Side note. Isn't an Inverted-W just an M?) His general mechanics are pretty much the same. I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but he's probably getting hurt again.
Maybe he won't, though. So, instead of watching every Strasburg start holding my breath, wondering if this will be the night his elbow goes pop, I'm going to enjoy it. In terms of stuff, he has the best in the majors right now,better than Verlander, better than Felix Hernandez. He doesn't have anything near their durability, but even they don't dominate hitters like Strasburg does. He's not a prospect, he's a great pitcher, already. So let's enjoy watching him pitch every chance we get.
Wednesday, August 31, 2011
Tom Milone to Debut Saturday!
I've discussed Washington National's prospect Tom Milone in this space a few times, and we have gotten word today that he will be recalled in order to take the space of Jordan Zimmermann in the Nat's rotation! Milone is scheduled to make his major league debut on Saturday against the Mets. We will see how his assortment of slow, slower and slowest curveballs work against a major league lineup. (Shhh, this is not the time for Mets jokes, this is a happy time).
Let's go Tom!
Monday, August 15, 2011
Syracuse Chiefs vs. Scranton Yankees Recap - Give Tom Milone a Shot
I was lucky enough to attend the Syracuse Chiefs vs. Scranton Wilkes-Barre Yankees game on Saturday night at Alliance Bank Stadium in Syracuse. The Chiefs won 4-2 in exciting fashion, and any time I can see the Yankees lose live I am thrilled, even if it is a minor league version. I root even harder against the AAA Yankees than I do against the major league team, because they use the "Yankees" nickname, dropping the awesome "Red Barons" moniker that they'd used as a Phillies affiliate from 1989 to 2006. Using the major league team name isn't inherently bad - Pawtucket has been the Red Sox since they got their team in 1970, and Indianapolis has been the Indians since 1952, even though they haven't been affiliated with the Cleveland Indians since 1956. You just can't drop your awesome nickname in favor of association with the major league team. And just so I'm being consistent, I was also against the Salem Avalanche becoming the Red Sox as well. It's just amplified when it's as great of a nickname as the Red Barons.
The game was a good time. Before the first pitch, we were treated to the Wall of Fame induction ceremony, highlighted by the induction of former Chief, Syracuse native and Fowler High School graduate Jerry Brooks, who had lots of family in attendance. The pitching matchup featured former Rockies/A's pitcher Greg Smith for the Yankees and International League strikeout leader Tom Milone for the Nationals. I discussed Milone's exceptional season in a previous post, and I will discuss him a bit more in a moment. Smith, if you recall, was traded by the Diamondbacks to the A's as part of a December 2007 blockbuster, where he Brett Anderson, Carlos Gonzalez, Chris Carter, Aaron Cunningham, and Dana Eveland were traded for Dan Haren and Connor Robertson. The next offseason, Smith along with Gonzalez and Huston Street were traded to the Rockies in exchange for Matt Holliday. So at least Smith can say he was traded for two of the best players in baseball. He has had little success above AA and, at 27, has reached the organizational soldier part of his career.
Smith was solid, giving up only 1 run in 5.1 innings, leaving with a 2-1 lead. In the bottom of the 7th, still trailing 2-1, reliever Buddy Carlyle struck out Chris Marrero to end the inning - or so it appeared. The pitch skipped by Gustavo Molina, and Marrero sprinted to first. Meanwhile, Roger Bernardina, who was on second base, had taken of for third on the wild pitch. When he saw the throw toward first base, he didn't miss a beat, continuing toward home. Molina's throw pulled Yankee first baseman Terry Tiffee off first base, and his throw back home was much too late, a turn of events that tied the game and left the Yankees stunned.
In the bottom of the 8th, the Chiefs Seth Bynum and Jhonatan Solano hit back to back home runs off of Yankee reliever (and long-time Florida Marlin) Logan Kensing to take a 4-2 lead, and that's where the score would sit. Jeff Mandel got the win for Syracuse, Josh Wilkie the save, but it was Tom Milone's pitching that was the highlight of the night.
Milone is nothing like any pitcher in the majors right now. The closest comparison in recent memory would be Jamie Moyer, which would tell you something about why a lot of scouts are skeptical of Milone's ability to succeed in the majors. Moyer has long been considered an anomaly because of his ability to get excellent results out of such mediocre stuff. Despite that, Milone has a 3.47 ERA in 129.2 innings for Syracuse, striking out 131 and walking only 13.
On Saturday, his line looked a lot like that - 7 innings, 8 hits, 2 runs, 0 walks, 6 strikeouts. His fastball topped out at only 87 miles an hour, but he doesn't throw it that often. He was throwing a secondary fastball that looked like a cutter or a two-seamer (it is described as a cutter on most of the sites I can find) that sat around 85. His changeup was around 78. But that curveball! Oh yes, that curveball. He seemed to throw three different types, one around 73, one around 67, and a third that was, no exaggeration, 60 miles an hour. It was that SLOW curve that made hitters look silly, swinging themselves into circles. It was fascinating to watch.
I have no idea whether Milone can sustain that success in the majors, sitting at 85 and throwing curveballs that wouldn't even get a speeding ticket. Three of his strikeouts were Jorge Vazquez, whose strikeout to walk ratio of 149 to 26 seems to allude to a complete inability to hit ANY curveballs. In reality, there are a lot of players who are in AAA, rather than the majors, because of that. Vazquez has major league level power, 27 homers in 395 at bats, but he can't, seemingly, tell a curveball is coming until after he swings and misses at it. He's good enough to play in AAA, but not the majors, where EVERYONE throws at least some kind of curveball. Maybe given 500 at bats he'd hit 30 homers, but he'd also probably hit .125, have a .200 OBP and strikeout 250 times. Major league hitters are in the majors because they can hit (or at least identify and lay off of) curve balls.
Or so the theory goes. Jamie Moyer won 267 games. In an 8 year stretch from 1996 to 2003, he had a 121 ERA+. He also had his first good season at age 30 and his second good one at 33, so it's fair to say that it didn't come easily to him. Calling Tom Milone the next Jamie Moyer is silly, because Moyer's career was so unique and unpredictable. Just because he's not Jamie Moyer doesn't mean he doesn't deserve a chance. The Nationals are far out of the playoff race, and Milone has shown at every level that he can get batters out. It's easy to get forgotten in an organization with Jordan Zimmermann and Stephen Strasburg, but it's Milone's status as the polar opposite, stuff-wise, of those two that makes him so fun to watch.
So, make it happen Nationals. Look past the radar gun and give the lefty with the 60 mile per hour curveball his chance.
The game was a good time. Before the first pitch, we were treated to the Wall of Fame induction ceremony, highlighted by the induction of former Chief, Syracuse native and Fowler High School graduate Jerry Brooks, who had lots of family in attendance. The pitching matchup featured former Rockies/A's pitcher Greg Smith for the Yankees and International League strikeout leader Tom Milone for the Nationals. I discussed Milone's exceptional season in a previous post, and I will discuss him a bit more in a moment. Smith, if you recall, was traded by the Diamondbacks to the A's as part of a December 2007 blockbuster, where he Brett Anderson, Carlos Gonzalez, Chris Carter, Aaron Cunningham, and Dana Eveland were traded for Dan Haren and Connor Robertson. The next offseason, Smith along with Gonzalez and Huston Street were traded to the Rockies in exchange for Matt Holliday. So at least Smith can say he was traded for two of the best players in baseball. He has had little success above AA and, at 27, has reached the organizational soldier part of his career.
Smith was solid, giving up only 1 run in 5.1 innings, leaving with a 2-1 lead. In the bottom of the 7th, still trailing 2-1, reliever Buddy Carlyle struck out Chris Marrero to end the inning - or so it appeared. The pitch skipped by Gustavo Molina, and Marrero sprinted to first. Meanwhile, Roger Bernardina, who was on second base, had taken of for third on the wild pitch. When he saw the throw toward first base, he didn't miss a beat, continuing toward home. Molina's throw pulled Yankee first baseman Terry Tiffee off first base, and his throw back home was much too late, a turn of events that tied the game and left the Yankees stunned.
In the bottom of the 8th, the Chiefs Seth Bynum and Jhonatan Solano hit back to back home runs off of Yankee reliever (and long-time Florida Marlin) Logan Kensing to take a 4-2 lead, and that's where the score would sit. Jeff Mandel got the win for Syracuse, Josh Wilkie the save, but it was Tom Milone's pitching that was the highlight of the night.
Milone is nothing like any pitcher in the majors right now. The closest comparison in recent memory would be Jamie Moyer, which would tell you something about why a lot of scouts are skeptical of Milone's ability to succeed in the majors. Moyer has long been considered an anomaly because of his ability to get excellent results out of such mediocre stuff. Despite that, Milone has a 3.47 ERA in 129.2 innings for Syracuse, striking out 131 and walking only 13.
On Saturday, his line looked a lot like that - 7 innings, 8 hits, 2 runs, 0 walks, 6 strikeouts. His fastball topped out at only 87 miles an hour, but he doesn't throw it that often. He was throwing a secondary fastball that looked like a cutter or a two-seamer (it is described as a cutter on most of the sites I can find) that sat around 85. His changeup was around 78. But that curveball! Oh yes, that curveball. He seemed to throw three different types, one around 73, one around 67, and a third that was, no exaggeration, 60 miles an hour. It was that SLOW curve that made hitters look silly, swinging themselves into circles. It was fascinating to watch.
I have no idea whether Milone can sustain that success in the majors, sitting at 85 and throwing curveballs that wouldn't even get a speeding ticket. Three of his strikeouts were Jorge Vazquez, whose strikeout to walk ratio of 149 to 26 seems to allude to a complete inability to hit ANY curveballs. In reality, there are a lot of players who are in AAA, rather than the majors, because of that. Vazquez has major league level power, 27 homers in 395 at bats, but he can't, seemingly, tell a curveball is coming until after he swings and misses at it. He's good enough to play in AAA, but not the majors, where EVERYONE throws at least some kind of curveball. Maybe given 500 at bats he'd hit 30 homers, but he'd also probably hit .125, have a .200 OBP and strikeout 250 times. Major league hitters are in the majors because they can hit (or at least identify and lay off of) curve balls.
Or so the theory goes. Jamie Moyer won 267 games. In an 8 year stretch from 1996 to 2003, he had a 121 ERA+. He also had his first good season at age 30 and his second good one at 33, so it's fair to say that it didn't come easily to him. Calling Tom Milone the next Jamie Moyer is silly, because Moyer's career was so unique and unpredictable. Just because he's not Jamie Moyer doesn't mean he doesn't deserve a chance. The Nationals are far out of the playoff race, and Milone has shown at every level that he can get batters out. It's easy to get forgotten in an organization with Jordan Zimmermann and Stephen Strasburg, but it's Milone's status as the polar opposite, stuff-wise, of those two that makes him so fun to watch.
So, make it happen Nationals. Look past the radar gun and give the lefty with the 60 mile per hour curveball his chance.
Tuesday, July 05, 2011
Two Prospects have Dominated in Nationals' System
You know about Bryce Harper. You may not know about Tom Milone.
We'll start with Harper. After spending the first three months of the season dominating in Single A Hagerstown to the tune of .318/.423/.554, Harper was promoted to Double A Harrisburg, skipping High A Potomac. In his double A debut, he went two for three with a walk and a run scored. Remember, Harper doesn't turn 19 until October. For a reference part, an 18 year old hasn't appeared in a major league game was in 1994. His name was Alex Rodriguez.
At this point, unless he completely flunks AA ball, I'd be shocked if Harper doesn't debut in September. He's likely to begin next season in the minors, though if he dominates in AA and hits either in his call up or next year in spring training, that could change.
You probably know all of that already, though. Who's this Milone guy?
Tom Milone (statistics)was just named the International League pitcher of the week. In his two starts, he pitched 14.1 innings, allowing 1 run, 8 hits, striking out 12 and walking nobody, extending a pattern of dominance that could fly under the radar because of some bad luck. Through 15 starts this season, Milone has what may seem like a pedestrian 6-5 record and 3.38 ERA. It doesn't take much digging though to find some truly mind boggling numbers:
Check that again. 101 strikeouts. FIVE walks. His strikout to walk ratio is 20.2. For a point of reference, the career record for K/BB ratio was in the strike shortened 1994 (is this a theme today?) when Bret Saberhagen had 143 strikeouts to 13 walks. Since he surpassed the full-season 162 IP standard, I'm willing to accept this as the record even though the strike shortened the year. If you're not, last season Cliff Lee had 185 strikeouts and 18 walks. The active career leader (min 1000 IP) is Mariano Rivera, at a tick under 4 strikeouts for every guy he walks.
Milone's stuff is considered middling, which is why we don't see him on prospect lists. His fastball is in the mid 80's, reaching 89 on rare occasion. His changeup seems to be regarded as his best pitch, and he also throws a cutter and curveball. He doesn't generate a ton of ground balls, so, considering the rest of his arsenal, I would guess it is likely that his home run rate in the major leagues would approach 1 per every 9 innings.
Still, while the walk number is impressive, it is the International League leading strikeout number that stands out to me. Walking too many hitters is bad, but simply avoiding walks isn't, on it's own, good. The active leader for lowest career walk rate is Carlos Silva, who has an ERA+ of 93, because he doesn't strike anybody out and gives up too many home runs. Combining such a low walk rate with such a high strikeout total though? It's almost impossible not to succeed while doing that. Zack Greinke has been hit hard this year doing it, but he's also a former Cy Young winner. There are 12 active pitchers with 1000 career innings and a K/BB ratio of over 3 to 1 (courtesy of baseball-reference):
Nobody on the list lower than a 104 ERA+, ten of the twelve over 112.
So why is Milone's performance so outpacing his stuff? One theory is that minor league hitters do not deal with pitchers, particularly left handed ones, who can locate and mix their pitches well, but major league hitters do. While there is some evidence to this, I'm having trouble finding an example of someone with such an extreme K/BB ratio in AAA. Milone performance is such an outlier that I'm not sure what we can extrapolate from other data sets.
My guess is that Milone will get a chance with the Nationals at some point this season. His performance has been too good to ignore, despite what the radar gun says. If the Nationals aren't interested in giving him a chance, somebody else certainly will. Once in the majors, it's anybody's guess what kind of success he'll have. I'm rooting for him though. One of the things I love about baseball is the fact there are many, many ways one can succeed at it. Maybe Milone can't - maybe he gets hit hard and falls out of the major leagues, and I find this post 10 years from now and laugh. Who knows? Even it's rare for someone with stuff like Tom Milone to excel, perhaps it's simply because there's never been another like Tom Milone.
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We'll start with Harper. After spending the first three months of the season dominating in Single A Hagerstown to the tune of .318/.423/.554, Harper was promoted to Double A Harrisburg, skipping High A Potomac. In his double A debut, he went two for three with a walk and a run scored. Remember, Harper doesn't turn 19 until October. For a reference part, an 18 year old hasn't appeared in a major league game was in 1994. His name was Alex Rodriguez.
At this point, unless he completely flunks AA ball, I'd be shocked if Harper doesn't debut in September. He's likely to begin next season in the minors, though if he dominates in AA and hits either in his call up or next year in spring training, that could change.
You probably know all of that already, though. Who's this Milone guy?
Tom Milone (statistics)was just named the International League pitcher of the week. In his two starts, he pitched 14.1 innings, allowing 1 run, 8 hits, striking out 12 and walking nobody, extending a pattern of dominance that could fly under the radar because of some bad luck. Through 15 starts this season, Milone has what may seem like a pedestrian 6-5 record and 3.38 ERA. It doesn't take much digging though to find some truly mind boggling numbers:
| Team | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | WHIP | H/9 | HR/9 | BB/9 | SO/9 | FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Syracuse | 96 | 90 | 36 | 6 | 5 | 101 | 3.38 | 0.99 | 8.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 9.5 | 2.10 |
Check that again. 101 strikeouts. FIVE walks. His strikout to walk ratio is 20.2. For a point of reference, the career record for K/BB ratio was in the strike shortened 1994 (is this a theme today?) when Bret Saberhagen had 143 strikeouts to 13 walks. Since he surpassed the full-season 162 IP standard, I'm willing to accept this as the record even though the strike shortened the year. If you're not, last season Cliff Lee had 185 strikeouts and 18 walks. The active career leader (min 1000 IP) is Mariano Rivera, at a tick under 4 strikeouts for every guy he walks.
Milone's stuff is considered middling, which is why we don't see him on prospect lists. His fastball is in the mid 80's, reaching 89 on rare occasion. His changeup seems to be regarded as his best pitch, and he also throws a cutter and curveball. He doesn't generate a ton of ground balls, so, considering the rest of his arsenal, I would guess it is likely that his home run rate in the major leagues would approach 1 per every 9 innings.
Still, while the walk number is impressive, it is the International League leading strikeout number that stands out to me. Walking too many hitters is bad, but simply avoiding walks isn't, on it's own, good. The active leader for lowest career walk rate is Carlos Silva, who has an ERA+ of 93, because he doesn't strike anybody out and gives up too many home runs. Combining such a low walk rate with such a high strikeout total though? It's almost impossible not to succeed while doing that. Zack Greinke has been hit hard this year doing it, but he's also a former Cy Young winner. There are 12 active pitchers with 1000 career innings and a K/BB ratio of over 3 to 1 (courtesy of baseball-reference):
| Player (age) | K/BB | ERA+ |
|---|---|---|
| Mariano Rivera (41) | 3.9669 | 205 |
| Dan Haren (30) | 3.9444 | 120 |
| James Shields (29) | 3.7611 | 105 |
| Cole Hamels (27) | 3.7435 | 126 |
| Roy Halladay (34) | 3.6753 | 137 |
| Roy Oswalt (33) | 3.5216 | 134 |
| Zack Greinke (27) | 3.4694 | 112 |
| Javier Vazquez (34) | 3.261 | 104 |
| Cliff Lee (32) | 3.2175 | 113 |
| Jered Weaver (28) | 3.1667 | 128 |
| Jake Peavy (30) | 3.0888 | 116 |
| Josh Beckett (31) | 3.0618 | 115 |
Nobody on the list lower than a 104 ERA+, ten of the twelve over 112.
So why is Milone's performance so outpacing his stuff? One theory is that minor league hitters do not deal with pitchers, particularly left handed ones, who can locate and mix their pitches well, but major league hitters do. While there is some evidence to this, I'm having trouble finding an example of someone with such an extreme K/BB ratio in AAA. Milone performance is such an outlier that I'm not sure what we can extrapolate from other data sets.
My guess is that Milone will get a chance with the Nationals at some point this season. His performance has been too good to ignore, despite what the radar gun says. If the Nationals aren't interested in giving him a chance, somebody else certainly will. Once in the majors, it's anybody's guess what kind of success he'll have. I'm rooting for him though. One of the things I love about baseball is the fact there are many, many ways one can succeed at it. Maybe Milone can't - maybe he gets hit hard and falls out of the major leagues, and I find this post 10 years from now and laugh. Who knows? Even it's rare for someone with stuff like Tom Milone to excel, perhaps it's simply because there's never been another like Tom Milone.
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