10/3/2014 Playoff Marathon live-ish blog

Greetings, I've done this post several times in the past. Real life is going to cause some interference during the day. Having a one-year old is pretty cool, but it does interfere with writing about baseball for 14 hours straight.

12:08: Strike one to Ian Kinsler. I'm going to go out on a limb and declare the Tigers the winners in year one of the Kinsler-for-Fielder deal.

12:10: Torii Hunter looked bad on that strikeout. He's a free agent after this season, and while he had a poor season he was generally a very good player for the last ten years. From 2004 to 2013 he hit .284/.343/.471. And despite only being a 0.4 bWAR player in 2014, it pushed his career number up to 50.3. I wouldn't vote for him, but there are worse players in the Hall of Fame.

12:21: Justin Verlander wasn't very good this year either, but his peripherals did come around in the second half, as he cut out those walks that killed him early in the year. No idea how he'll pitch today, but my feeling is that he'll be a good pitcher again in the future.

12:24: Speaking of peripherals, Stephen Strasburg's were awesome this year. League-best 242 strikeouts, and a sterling 2.94 FIP. My only playoff prediction is that I think he's going to be a monster. He's at a career high for innings, but he cruised into the end of the regular season.

12:31: Alex Avila has exactly 11 homers and 47 RBIs in each of the past two seasons. In 2012 he drove in 48.

12:41: Time Warner Cable isn't making this any easier. Also, Justin Verlander is pitching a no-hitter. Am I doing this right?

12:44: Tigers shortstop was one of the worst positions in baseball this season. The player they settled on, Andrew Romine, plays average defense and hit .227/.279/.275, which is almost exactly his career line over parts of four season. For comparison's sake, their starting SS on opening day was Alex Gonzalez, who hit .167/.219/.233. I expect to see Eugenio Suarez at some point this weekend.

12:48: That always scares me. Sweet grab by Chen.

12:53: Dennis Eckersley is 60? Good grief.

12:57: I started following baseball in 1988, and Dennis Eckersley's transition to relief ace, redefining the closer role, was one of the biggest stories of that time. To someone who started watching baseball this season, that would be like someone telling me about 1962.

12:59: Schoop breaks up the no-hitter. For those of you following on GameCast or otherwise on the internet, it is pronounced like the mouthwash, not like that Salt N' Peppa tune.

1:04: Speaking of Eck, pretty prescient of him, noticing that Verlander was only throwing Markakis fastballs, an he finally turned on one. Even if it gets called back, that was a rocket.

1:12: Call stands. Alice has awoken. Time for a quick call to the bullpen for a pitching change, and then some play time. I will check in periodically (maybe). More to come tonight!

2:09: Quick check-in. There were some home runs while I was gone. Anyhow, an observation that is tangentially related to baseball. When the televisionis on, Alice (my daughter) really reacts to it. During that sweet 5-4-3 double play in the top of the fifth, the announcer got appropriately excited, and Alice started yelling along with it. It was awesome.

2:33: I like the move to bring in Sanchez. Given the Tigers bullpen problems, it's worth the risk. Now I'm on record, feel free to quote me when this blows up.

2:45: FoxSports just twittered a picture of its pregame desk crew. Frank Thomas and Gabe Kapler are sitting next to each other. Do not mess with that side of the table.

5:18: So some stuff happened in the last two and a half hours? I can't provide a ton of analysis because I wasn't watching closely, and what can be said about the first game other than "The Tigers bullpen stinks." Joba Chamberlain blowing the game brings me joy.

5:26: Can Jake Peavy take the duck boat he bought into the San Francisco Bay? Because that would be kind of cool. He's clear outpitched Strasburg today, against a very good Washington lineup. It's a little bit surprising, but Peavy is 12th among active pitchers in bWAR so maybe it shouldn't be.

5:49: All three Giants pitchers in the sixth inning are ex-Red Sox. Jake Peavy and Javier Lopez people know about. Hunter Strickland was an 18th-round pick in 2007 and was traded to Pittsburgh (with infielder Argenis Diaz) in exchange for Adam LaRoche. Nine days later, the Sox flipped LaRoche for Casey Kotchman.

6:00: I'm not in love with the playing of God Bless America during the seventh inning stretch, but I am in love with it when it is played by the Marine Corps Marching Band.

6:38: Two games at once is easy. Two games at once while giving the baby a bath and cleaning the basement might be beyond my can.

7:03: Sergio Romo seems like one of those players who, by the time he finally got credit for being good, stopped being good.

7:27: Former Supreme Court Justice Jon Jay strikes out against current Supreme Commander of Worlds Clayton Kershaw.

7:41: Adrian Gonzalez has a reputation as a cool cat, but he was obviously pretty fired up there. I don't think Wainwright hit Puig on purpose, but if he did he's a fool.

7:45: Carl Crawford really had a nice bouneback season this year. He's not the player he was signed to be in 2011, but he posted a 2.4 bWAR after totaling 2.3 from 2011 to 2013. His decline is still stark - a player with an outside shot at Hall of Fame credentials four years ago is well, well short of that. Nice to see him drive in the go-ahead run.

8:29. I missed two innings putting Alice to be. In that time, Clayton Kershaw faced six batters and struck out five of them. I'm starting to think he's good at baseball.

8:34: Hey remember three months ago when Matheny took Wainwright ahead of Kershaw to start the All-Star game?

8:45: The Cardinals' relievers would pitch better if they were given numbers that indicated they weren't going to be cut in spring training.

8:55: Of course the Ashburn Award winner homers.

8:56: Adrian Gonzalez is a good defensive first baseman. Also, he led the National League in RBI despite having his worst full offensive season.

9:01: Hanley Ramirez's helmet keeps falling off. Does he need a tighter hemlet? I think that would annoy me.

9:11: Puig really closed the gap there. Great angle to keep Holliday at second base.

9:11: Three straight hits off Kershaw? What the what is going on?

9:13: There's at least a 10% chance Kershaw loaded the bases on purpose to give himself a challenge.

9:14: Pete Kozma getting put on the Cardinals postseason roster was insane, so of course Matheny is going to turn up a Yost and Kozma will hit a grand slam.

9:18: The BABIP God's are apparently unhappy with Clayton Kershaw.

9:26: Raise your hand if you expected Kershaw to give up five runs in an inning.

9:34: Before that Peralta groundout the Cardinals were 6 for 6 on balls in play in the inning. A few of the balls off Kershaw, especially the Carpenter double and Molina hit, were well struck. But that's some busted luck right there.

9:46: Yeah, totally lost track that the Angels-Royals game was set for 9:37. I am rusty.

9:51: The Royals didn't get anyone on base in the first, so they were unable to have anyone thrown out on the bases. Fortunately the Angels stepped up there.

10:03: Adrian Gonzalez goes boom. 10-8. This playoffs has been crazy.

10:10: I don't get how Pat Neshek can pitch like that.

10:11: Both games are between innings. Why are both games in between innings. More baseball please.

10:14: The third most famous author of the Federalist Papers is 2 for 4.

10:16: Offense is up in the playoffs this year because of bunting? Thanks Harold Reynolds, for actively making me miss Tim McCarver.

10:19: Joba Chamberlain's ERA is 108.00 in the playoffs. Couldn't happen to a more deserving fellow.

10:22: Legitimately great bun there by Moustakas to beat the shift. I understand stud hitters not bunting on the overshift - you want David Ortiz swinging for the fences. But if a team is going to shift like that for someone who hit .212/.271/.361 then yeah, bunt yourself onto first.

10:25: Then having your leadoff hitter sacrifice bunt in the third inning. Sigh.

10:32: Yasiel Puig up with a runner on third and two outs, down by one in the bottom of the ninth. Against a guy who throws 100. I likey.

10:36: And Mighty Yasiel has struck out. The Wainwright-Kershaw duel ends 10-9. I think you won if you bet the over.

10:38: Meanwhile a few miles south in Anaheim... Nice to see Yordano Ventura bouncing back from his tough appearance in the wild card game. Doesn't appear to have any effect, though I wonder if he'll be on a shorter pitch count.

10:55: Salvador Perez leadoff single. Does Infante bunt to get the Moustakas and Escobar?

10:57: Nope, Yost resisted the urge. I guess that's improvement!

11:05: Ventura retired 11 in a row but has given up two straight singles. That's not necessarily concerning, but he left that pitch to Aybar up and down the middle. Worth keeping an eye on.

11:07: The double play is the pitcher's best friend.

11:34: Ventura walks Trout, and Albert Pujols is coming up. Pujols is 0 for 6 in the series. Good luck, kid.

11:36: Worse pitchers than Yordano Ventura have given up game-tying hits to Pujols. That said, Ventura seems to be overthrowing a bit. I don't know if I'd let him face Kendrick here. Very dangerous situation.

11:38: Kendrick grounds harmlessly to third. 1-1 through six.

11:40: There is a fly in my family room and it is huge and it is annoying me.

11:43: Baldwinsville's own Jason Grilli on for the seventh. He struggled in the first half with Pittsburgh but pitched better after the trade out west. He was certainly more effective than Ernesto Frieri in that sort-of challenge trade.

11:52: Ventura for the seventh. At only 85 pitches and Herrera on the shelf I can see it, but I guess I'm a little surprised. Finnegan should be ready behind him.

12:03: I've had to power cycle my modem five times since starting this, twelve hours ago. Thanks for the consistency, Time Warner.

12:08: Yost makes a good move, going to Wade Davis in the tie game. And then of course C.J. Cron rips a first-pitch curveball for a double down the left-field line.

12:13: Great time for a TOOTBLAN!

12:15: Seriously, I get wanting to get to third with less than two outs. But the top of the order was coming up. He's already on second.

12:16: And I'm excited for the morons who, if the Royals win, will credit "small ball." The Angels are the ones wasting outs. Pitching and defense isn't small ball.

12:20: I really want the Royals to not score right here just to see what Yost does in another tie game in the bottom of the ninth. Stick with Davis? Go to Holland? The Mystery Box?

12:29: I know Alex Gordon is a much tougher out than Salvador Perez, but that run is important, too. Much better chance the Royals put up a crooked number this inning, making a potential comback in the bottom of the inning a significantly tougher task.

12:31: Got out of it. Trout/Pujols to start the bottom of the ninth.

12:34: I'm not sure there's a right person to face Mike Trout in the tie game of the bottom of the ninth. But Wade Davis and Greg Hollard are available, with all due respect to Jason Frasor it shouldn't be him.

12:35: And Frasor pops Trout up. Shows you what I know.

12:38: Pujols pops up too. Ned Yost's moves don't have consequences.

12:39: Extra innings again! Who needs sleep?!

12:44: Huston Street on for a second inning of work, and he strikes out Omar Infante. Pretty amazing that Street had zero games this season where he recorded more than three outs. The rigidity of modern bullpen usage drives me bats.

12:53: Brandon Finnegan needs only one pitch to get his first out. Did you know he was in college earlier this year and selected in the 2014 draft? Did you? Huh? Huh? Did you? The blue cheese is baked right in, folks.

12:59: Going to the 11th. Excellent 3-6-3 by the Royals there. Very impressive play for Hosmer to field, throw, and get back to the bag in plenty of time to receive th e relay.

1:06: Two-run homer. Eric Hosmer. Incredible.

1:21: Greg Holland is good. I can't believe the "save your closer in case your worse relievers don't blow it" keeps working.

1:24: OH MY GOD STOP CALLING HIM BIG GAME JAMES.

1:25: Error extends the game for Mike Trout. Trout is probably good enough to hit a three-run homer with only one man on base, so the Royals should be careful.

1:25: But seriously stop with the Big Game James. He's pitched in seven playoff games and is 2-4 with a 5.26 ERA. He's an awful pitcher in big games. He's done his best work in April. We can call him Cold Game James or something. But he absolutely cannot take James Worthy's nickname.

1:27: Mike Trout strikes out to end it. He is 0 for 8 in the two games. Four games today. Three decided by one run, the other going into extra innings. It is very late here in the northeast portion of the midwest, so I shall depart. Thanks if you've been following along. Also, seek help.

Does Jeff Francis fit with Cincinnati?

On the surface, the Reds signing of Jeff Francis to a minor-league contract seems like no-news news. However, I think he has a chance to play an important role on a team that should probably be considered the favorite in the National League Central.

Ok. A pitcher who went 6-16 with a 4.82 ERA and only 4.5 K/9 isn't generally much in demand, and Francis is several years and a major injury removed from his time as a promising young pitcher. The ninth pick in the 2002 draft, Francis rose quickly through the Colorado Rockies organization. Before the 2005 season, Baseball America ranked him the #23 prospect in baseball. In 2006 and 2007, he went 30-20. His ERA was 4.19, a number that might otherwise be mediocre but in Coors Field was a 116 ERA+. In 2007, he struck out 165 in 215.1 innings, and helped the Rockies reach their first World Series. Going into 2008, Francis's age-27 season, things looked good for both player and team.

Of course, these things don't always work out - Francis was experiencing shoulder soreness that caused him to be ineffective in 2008. The injury was determined to be an injured tendon in his biceps, and he was shut down after 21 starts. He attempted to rehab, but to no avail, and opted for shoulder surgery in February 2009, which shut him down for the next 15 months. Upon his return to the Rockies in May 2010, his fastball's velocity had lost about 4 mph, and he was generally ineffective all season. The Rockies cut ties with their former top prospect and Francis signed a one-year contract with the traditionally bottom-feeding Kansas City Royals for 2011.

In 2011, Francis wasn't especially good, but there are some positives, and some reason to think he could be a good signing for the Reds. First of all, while his 4.82 ERA is unsightly, his 4.10 FIP and 4.23 xFIP show that his peripherals are sometimes better than results. This is the second consecutive year Francis has underperformed what his statistics would predict, so it's important to determine whether Francis has been unlucky and should be expected to improve, or if he's just an AJ Burnett-corollary type, who consistently underachieves. That's not easy to do.

While his early-career ERA was generally in line with his FIP and other predictors, Francis is a totally different pitcher now, with a fastball that tops out at about 85. To compensate for his loss in velocity and declining strikeout rate, Francis has thrown more ground balls the last two seasons. Unfortunatly, he's been doing that in front of some pretty poor defenses - the Royals were 24th in baseball with a defensive efficiency(DE) of .701, and Francis ended up with a .316 BABIP. The Cincinnati Reds were 3rd in baseball and best in the National League with a .718 DE. That difference makes an especially big difference to a pitcher like Francis, who doesn't strike many batters out.

On the other hand, in his second year back from his injury, Francis's fastball actually lost velocity from 2010. Also, after an extremely effective July where he did everything well, he pitched very poorly the rest of the year. Whether this was fatigue or simply a regression to his actual ability remains to be answered. It's important to keep in mind, though, that he was at 135 IP by the end of July - he last reached that number in 2008, and he last reached it while healthy in 2007. If this was a case of fatigue, it was certainly understandable.

Something else to note - Francis allowed home runs on only 8.5% of his fly balls last year, despite a relatively low amount of infield flies, as Ryan Campbell of FanGraphs told us last week. That's not a good sign going into the Great American Ballpark, one of the best home run parks in baseball.

Even so, slightly worse luck on keeping fly balls in the park would be evened out by the fact playing in front of Cincinnati's defense will mean less people  are on base when those home runs are hit. He also will be facing pitchers instead of designated hitters this year, so if his durability and velocity come back to his previous numbers a bit more, he should be able to post a strikeout rate in the mid-5's, a number that should help bring keep his ERA in the low 4's.

Does that fit with Cincinnati? Sure, "you can never have enough pitching" as the old saying goes. Still, the Reds have Mat Latos and Johnny Cueto entrenched, can probably expect some sort of revival from the previously consistent Bronson Arroyo, and after that have Homer Bailey, Mike Leake and Aroldis Chapman. Of those three, Leake has more than earned the right to start. He wasn't as hyped as the other two, but as a first round draft pick who went straight to the majors, improved in every conceivable way in 2011, and is still only 24, why wouldn't they just pen him into the rotation?

Chapman, by contrast, has only made three professional starts, all in the minor leagues. The Reds say they are committed to him as a starter, and with his talent, they should be. Relievers are always available - the Reds owe it to themselves to give someone with Chapman's upside a chance to be as valuable as possible. What's the harm of letting him start the year at Triple-A though? With six other established starters in a weak division, the Reds are already poised to compete. No reason to throw Chapman into the fray before he's ready and risk both his confidence and their chances at the division.

That's where Francis fits in. Appearing as the 7th starter at first glance, he's more MLB-ready than Chapman. Quick question - do you expect all five of those starters, particularly Cueto and Bailey, to go the entire season without injury? That's unrealistic of any staff, even one comprised entirely of starters with a good health history. Francis could have significant value as a "swingman" type, starting out as a left-handed long reliever who is ready to move into the rotation if (when) one of the starters gets hurt. Much better him than trying to coordinate calling up Chapman the first time an injury strikes.

For $1.5 million for a pitcher with Francis's experience and likelihood of success, that seems like a sensible investment for the Reds.

Melky Cabrera for Jonathan Sanchez Trade Breakdown

When I first saw the news of the deal where the Royals sent outfielder Melky Cabrera to the Giants for starting pitcher Jonathan Sanchez and minor leaguer Ryan Verdugo, my first thought was that it was a great deal for the Royals – they traded a mediocre outfielder coming off his best season for a high-upside power lefty coming off of a down year, a move that upgrades their rotation and opens up the center field spot in 2011 for Lorenzo Cain. It seemed like a classic case of buying low and selling high executed by Dayton Moore, and the opposite by Brian Sabean. I had this rated as a big ripoff by the Royals.

At second glance, though, I started to wonder. There were a lot of unanswered questions. Was Jonathan Sanchez really any sort of good bet to turn his career around? Is Melky Cabrera actually better than I’ve given him credit for? Is Lorenzo Cain good enough to play center in the majors? Did Dayton Moore actually trade an ex-Brave for a non-ex-Brave without the world collapsing into itself?

This is a pretty classic trade of two teams dealing from strengths to fill weaknesses. The Giants had the second best ERA by their starting pitchers in the National League, behind only the Phillies. They had four qualified starters, and of the four, the highest was Madison Bumgarner’s 3.21 ERA. It’s probably not fair to expect Ryan Vogelsong to duplicate his 2011 season, but Bumgarner along with Lincecum and Cain are probably the best 1-2-3 in baseball outside of Philadelphia. A “high-upside” fifth starter who they’ve been trying for years to develop was probably one of the luxuries Brian Sabean felt they couldn’t afford. That’s particularly true of the Giants, who had a .228/.299/.347 line from the CF position in 2011, the lowest OBP and OPS in the NL. Meanwhile, the Royals had the second worst starting pitcher ERA in the American League, and do have depth in the outfield.

Trading from strength for weakness alone doesn’t make a good trade though. The Phillies won’t be trading Cole Hamels for Lyle Overbay just because they have good starting pitching and need a first baseman for 2012. The trade also needs to be at least somewhat even, right?

First, Jonathan Sanchez. There will always be a demand for lefty power pitchers. That’s especially true when it’s a lefty with a K/9 of 9.4 in over 700 career innings, and a no-hitter on his resume. There’s no doubt that Sanchez has talent. In 2010, what appeared to be a breakout season, he allowed only 142 hits while striking out 205 in 193.1 innings. He also led the National League with 96 walks, but you take the good with the bad, right? That still left him with a K/BB over the magic 2.0 threshold. In 2011, though, he took a big step backward. The K/9 dropped from 9.5 to 9.1, the BB/9 leapt from a barely sustainable 4.5 to a totally untenable 5.9, causing his ERA to go from 3.07 to 4.26. Sanchez also missed significant time with a biceps injury, going on the DL from June 26 until August 1, then again from August 17 to the end of the year. It’s fair to assume that the biceps injury was negatively affecting the pitching, but still, this was a great disappointment coming off of a 2010 that seemed to be his big breakthrough. At the end of the year, Sanchez is left with an ERA+ of only 97 for his career with a K/BB ratio under 2.0.

Then, there’s Melky Cabera. I posted here earlier this year comparing Cabrera’s offense to the much more highly touted B.J. Upton. However, the point of that post wasn’t to praise Cabrera as much as it was to bury Upton. Cabrera did have a legitimately good season at the plate in 2011, by far the best of his career. That makes some sense though, as it was his age 26 season. A lot of the years when Cabrera kind of stunk for the Yankees, it’s important to keep in mind he was doing it at an age where most guys are in college. In 2011, Cabrera had a .305/.339/.470 slash line. The power was new – that slugging percentage of .470 blew away his previous career high of .416, and he set career highs not only in raw doubles and home runs, but also in the rate that he hit them. So, was this a breakout or a fluke? It’s hard to say for sure, but there are a couple of discouraging signs. Since it’s likely that the power increase was at least somewhat for real, it’s also likely that he was just hitting the ball harder in general. However, he’d never been close to that .335 BABIP before – for his career, he was at .293 going into 2011. On top of that, his walk rate was much lower than it had been previously. Once every 20 PA, down from one every 12. Considering the increase in his power stats, one might assume that he was just making more contact early in his at-bats, but his strike out rate was actually worse than his career rate. Bring his BABIP down from .335 to a more likely .315, and his slash line drops to .289/.322/.453.

Keep in mind. .289/.322/.453 is still a pretty solid center fielder, especially since for the Giants. Again, that position managed only a .228/.299/.347 line in 2011. Is Melky Cabrera really a center fielder though? According to Baseball-Reference.com, his dWAR in 2011 was -1.9. FanGraphs shows him with a -8.6 UZR, fifth worst in baseball. This is a major problem. When I compared Cabrera positively with B.J. Upton earlier in the year, that was an offense-only comparison. Upton is one of the better defensive centerfielders around, which is why he has so much more value than Cabrera. If we’re predicting him to have an OPS somewhere in the .775 range, that’s tough to take in a corner for most teams. It's possible Cabrera really is a tweener, without the glove to carry him in center or the bat to carry him at a corner. Though, in what is likely a fluke but deserves some attention, left fielders around baseball simply stunk in 2011 – only three teams got a .775 OPS out of the left field position. So, with that info, it's fair to say Cabrera is due more credit than he gets. Regarding the San Francisco Giants, the possible alternatives just don't seem to be all that strong. Melky Cabrera may not be an optimal choice in LF/CF, but he is an significant upgrade in San Fran.

If you clicked on that link of left field production, you notice that the Kansas City Royals were one of those three teams, getting an excellent year out of Alex Gordon, who finally blossomed this year. The Royals are committed to their youth movement with Lorenzo Cain (though it’s fair to note that Cain is only 20 months younger than Cabrera). Going into the offseason, many thought it would be Cain on the trading block, coming off a very strong minor league season. Reports linked him to the Braves in a potential Jair Jurrjens deal at the trading deadline. Dayton Moore is sticking with the rebuilding plan, though, and Cain’s .305/.377/.476 line in 671 Triple-A plate appearances shows that he’s earned his chance. 

In the interest of providing a complete analysis, know that Ryan Verdugo's future is in the bullpen. After some successful years in the low minors as a reliever, the Giants worked at converting him to starting in Double-A. The rise in home run rate and drop in strike out rate means a move back to the pen is forthcoming. With 167 strikeouts in 113 innings from 2008 to 2010 in the bullpen, it's not fair to write Verdugo off as a non-prospect, but he will turn 25 very early in the 2012 season and has not yet had success above Single-A. 

For the Royals, I think this was a no-brainer. They got what may end up being the best season of Melky Cabrera’s career in exchange for nothing, then spun him for a potentially good starting pitcher while giving his long-term replacement some useful seasoning in Triple-A. Dayton Moore did a great job here, and I think this move makes the Royals closer to being a contender.

However, the fact that it was definitely a good move for the Royals doesn’t mean it’s a bad one for the Giants. Sanchez is at best a fourth starter in their organization, and their outfield is dreadful, particularly with the news that Pat Burrell’s career is probably over. Melky Cabrera is an upgrade for them even if he regresses to where I think he will. The only way I could criticize the Giants is if I thought they could’ve gotten more for Sanchez. Perhaps it was a mistake to trade him coming off of a down year, and they could have brought him to camp and shown the world he was healthy, but the Giants are looking to contend in 2012. They need to have a roster of guys who can help them win in place on opening day, and not worry about showcasing pitching for other teams. The Giants are better after this trade than they were before it, which means Brian Sabean did his job.

Maybe it’s boring or too noncommittal to analyze a trade and say it was a sensible move for both teams, but that’s where I stand on this one.

How good is BJ Upton? A Comparison.

Let's get this out of the way - I apologize that three out of my last four posts have been about the Rays, despite the fact that one of those posts was arguing that almost nobody cares about the Rays and that maybe they should move. So if you're annoyed and would prefer it if I wrote about your favorite team/player, feel free to send me a dollar.

Moving on, let's take a quick look at two center fielders who were born 10 days apart in 1984, debuted at age 19, and were once considered building blocks of the futures of their respective teams. Here are their performances since the beginning of the 2009 season (ages 24-26, statistics lifted from our friends at Baseball-Reference):

	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB
Player A	377	1404	1273	160	342	72	7	26	153	27	5	105	170	0.269	0.325	0.397	0.722	93	506	28	5	12	9	16
Player B	373	1545	1368	208	323	83	8	40	158	104	27	158	394	0.236	0.316	0.396	0.712	95	542	26	6	4	9	3

So let's take a look. The first thing that jumps out is that Player B steals a lot more bases. Stolen bases are becoming a more important part of the game in recent years, and the stolen base percentage is quite efficient, so that's a plus. Player B also exhibits a bit more power, hitting home runs once every 38.6 plate appearances, while Player A goes deep once every 54. Player B walks a little bit more often, but strikes out more than twice as frequently -once every 3.9 PA, while Player A strikes out only once every 8.4. Strikeouts on their own aren't inherently worse than other outs, but an extremely high strikeout rate like this will keep the batting average down, particularly if it isn't being supplemented with plus power. That's what appears to be happening here, Player B strikes out so much that it drives his batting average down to the point where his OBP and SLG are lower than a guy who walks and homers less often.

The fact that Player B has a slightly higher OPS+ than Player A despite a lower actual OPS shows that he's probably been playing in a slightly harder hitting environment, but neither guy is even an average hitter.

So, can you guess who the two players are? Yes, of course BJ Upton is one, his name is in the title. I'll give you a moment to try to figure out who the other one is. Take your time. Remember, he's a starting center fielder in the major leagues right now.

Figure it out yet?

It's Melky Cabrera. Seriously. BJ Upton is Melky Cabrera with more stolen bases.

Melky Cabrera, if you recall, was such an integral part of the Yankees 2009 World Series that he was a throw in as part of a trade that brought them Javier Vazquez after that season. He was then so bad for the Braves that he was released, and signed as a free agent by Royals GM Dayton Moore, a move that was roundly mocked. Meanwhile, BJ Upton is consistently brought up as a possible valuable trading commodity for the Rays, with the hot rumors having him going to the Nationals. One has to wonder why the Nationals, or any team, would consider giving up prospects to pick up a guy who, over a significant amount of at bats, doesn't hit any better than a guy who was released and picked up by a rebuilding team as space-filler until the real prospects are ready.

Now, Upton IS a better player than Cabrera. Cabrera's power numbers were "inflated" by hitting 9 of his 13 homers in 2009 in the new Yankee Stadium, which is why Upton still has the higher OPS+. Meanwhile, Upton's defense has generally been very good over the same time period, while Cabrera's has not. All things being equal, I would rather have BJ Upton on my team than Melky Cabrera. All things aren't equal though. Upton is probably going to cost some team a lot in terms of prospects, and someone will probably give him a long-term contract in free agency. Meanwhile, Melky Cabrera was released and makes a third of the major league average salary. The stolen bases and superior defense don't do enough to justify the gap in perception between the two.

Part of it is visual - Upton is lanky and athletic, looking every bit the part of a star prospect, and he still has that baby face. Meanwhile, Melky looks dumpy, and his conditioning was a big reason he fell out of favor in both New York and Atlanta. Another is our initial recognition. Upton was a top prospect and had an excellent year in 2007, when he was 22 for most of the season. He then was one of the dominant players of the 2008 postseason, hitting seven home runs in the first two rounds. Cabrera was considered a potential starter but never really a future star, and 2006, his best season, was only impressive in the context of his young age. In reality, they've been remarkably similar hitters since 2009, neither impressive.

Sidenote - I hesitate to use the term "overrated," because it speaks more to our perceptions of players than the players themselves. It's far more instructive to try and simply consider players based on their performance. Getting into a discussion about overrated/underrated can only lead to the inevitable "who is doing the rating" dead end question. There are always players we see in "most overrated" polls, but when everyone agrees they are overrated, they aren't overrated anymore. Calling BJ Upton overrated is meaningless.

Maybe Upton simply needs a change of scenery. As I discussed the other day, Tampa can be a pretty "blah" place to play, and maybe he's just not properly motivated playing there. I just wouldn't be willing to part with a top prospect in order to find out.

The Royals Rebuilding Continues: Mike Moustakas Arrives

The Royals' other top 10 prospect, third baseman Mike Moustakas, was called up on Friday and started the past three games, going 3 for 10 with three walks and the first of what could be many home runs. Moustakas follows Eric Hosmer, who debuted a month ago, along with pitchers Tim Collins, Aaron Crow and Jeremy Jeffress in the Royals youth movement.

Drafted #2 overall in the 2007 draft out of Chatsworth High School, the same school that produced Dwight Evans, Moustakas saw his status jump around over the years due to some fluctuations in batting average. He had a breakout season in 2010, going .322/.369/.630 with 36 home runs and 124 RBI at AA and AAA as a 21 year old, vaulting him to #9 in Baseball America's status. The one concern was his low K/BB rate, consistently striking out at least twice as often as he walked, an issue that some believed would keep his batting average down.

Beginning the 2011 season in AAA, Moustakas continued to show power, with 15 2B and 10 HR in 250 PA. However, 41 strikeouts to only 19 walks had some scouts worried, and it kept his overall production at .287/.347/.498 - good, but not fantastic. Still, the Royals are committed to their rebuilding, and decided that Moustakas, likely past being eligible for the "Super Two" status that's become the bugaboo among GMs recently, should get his chance.

So, Moustakas deserves his status as a top prospect, but he is hardly flawless. The three walks in his first three MLB games are a good sign, but are not really in line with his past performance. If Moustakas continues his free-swinging ways, major league pitchers with better control and more ability to make adjustments than their minor league counterparts, will simply give Moustakas little in the way of hittable pitches. Moustakas replaces Wilson Betemit, who was hitting .289/.348/.411, his second consecutive good season for Kansas City. It seems like forever ago when Betemit was a top-10 prospect himself, but he is only 29 years old and has a career .268/.336/.443 line. His defense leaves something to be desired, and I'm skeptical of the Royals' plan to use him in a utility role that includes being a backup SS and 2B, but I don't expect him to be a Royal much longer. Betemit could be had in trade with a team that needs a starting 3B or switch hitter off the bench who can play the four corners and possibly the middle infield in a real emergency. The Rockies, who have run out of patience with Ian Stewart, or the Mariners if they decide they are contenders and are willing to accept that Chone Figgins isn't getting the job done, are destinations that could make sense.

I'm not sure if Moustakas is an immediate upgrade over Betemit offensively in 2011, but the Royals are not playing for this year. Moustakas has such advanced power that there's little more he can do to improve in AAA - he'll always have that power to fall back on, and he'll be facing a lot of pitchers who are in AAA because they give up too many home runs. That combination will make it hard for him to improve his other skills, such as improving his plate discipline and making more consistent contact. With the Royals likely aiming for a 2013 date for being real contenders, getting Moustakas 1000 or so plate appearances by then will allow him to make those necessary adjustments. I like Hosmer's upside more, because I see him as a more well-rounded hitter, but Moustakas has an upside as a 45 home run type, settling in nicely as a #5 hitter behind Hosmer, Billy Butler, and a finally-producing Alex Gordon.

Vin Mazzaro and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day

How bad is bad? As in, possibly the worst game in the post World War II era.

Coming in to start the third inning with the Royals trailing the Indians 3-1, Mazzaro pitched a scoreless third inning. He then gave up TEN runs in the fourth inning. He gave up one more run in the fifth, when he was finally, mercifully taken out with one out and the bases loaded. All three inherited runners scored. The Indians went on to win 19-1. (Box score)

2.1 Innings Pitched. 14 earned runs allowed.
Using Baseball-Reference's Play Index tool, I was able to find all of the pitchers who have allowed 14 runs (none have allowed more) in the last 66 years.

On August 3, 1998, Mike Oquist of the Oakland A's allowed 14 runs in 5 innings. 13 of those runs came in the first three innings, so I guess you could say Oquist settled down.

On August 14, 1977, Bill Travers of the Milwaukee Brewers gave up 14 runs in 7.2 innings. It should be noted that this was in the second game of a doubleheader.

On June 28, 1947, Al Jurisich of the Phillies gave up 14 runs against the Giants in an 8 inning complete game, presumably because manager Ben Chapman wasn't aware he could use a relief pitcher. Jurisich, 25 years old and 15-16 in his career to that point, never won another major league game. Hopefully Mazzaro has a better fate.

EDIT: Looking at the game logs, it appears the Phillies had a doubleheader scheduled for the following day. So that at least gives some insight into what Chapman's thinking might have been.

Eric Hosmer Called Up

Baseball America's #8 Prospect, Eric Hosmer, was called up last night by the Royals, and is expected to debut today. The Royals expected to leave Hosmer in AAA to get at least 250 at bats, but made the call with him tearing up the PCL with a .439/.525/.582 after only 118 PA's.

The decision to pull the trigger on Hosmer was undoubtedly helped along by the failure of Kila Ka'aihue, batting .195/.295/.317 with only two home runs. Ka'aihue has put up excellent minor league umbers, but scouts were never really convinced. I'm hoping Ka'aihue gets another chance at some point, as it's not hard to envision him having a Kevin Millar type career. Millar was another patient yet unathletic 1B who put up excellent minor league numbers before getting a full time chance. That's the problem, though, with guys who are fringy in the tools department - they're simply not going to get the same number of chances as someone like Alex Gordon, so they need to seize the opportunity when they get it. Ka'aihue did not, so Shane Victorino's status as the best Hawaiian in baseball is safe.

Hosmer was the #3 pick in the 2008 draft out of high school. He struggles mightily in 2009, but after getting laser eye surgery, he was one of the best players in the minor leagues in 2010. While it might sound like rushing it to call a 21 year old who doesn't even have 350 plate appearances above single A up to the majors, Hosmer is a special talent, and the Royals are trying to keep pace with the Indians in the AL Central.

One statement of caution in regards to his 2011 outlook. Hosmer was batting .506 on balls in play in AAA. Of course, part of that is his being the best player on the field, but that's entirely unsustainable. Recalculating his BABIP to a still-excellent .354, Hosmer's stat line goes to .316/.424/.459. With that in mind, and factoring his 2010 stats as well, I'd expect something along the lines of .285/.365/.420 this year. As his power grows in the future, Hosmer's excellent approach, coupled with pitchers being less willing to give him anything to hit hard, will result in him walking 100+ times per year, and I see his long term upside as .300/.435/.570 type - certainly All-Star level production.

Zack Greinke

The Brewers completed a deal this weekend to acquire 2009 Cy Young award winner Zack Greinke from the Royals for four prospects. The Royals felt they would not be able to resign Greinke when he becomes a free agent after the 2012 season, and wanted to trade him now so that they could maximize the value for him and receive prospects to supplement their #1 farm system.

From the start, the Brewers were considered a favorite for Greinke because of their commitment to improving their pitching staff this winter, and because of their ability to trade the major league ready "up-the-middle" help that the Royals stated would be necessary in any deal. With the deal complete, we answer the burning questions.

1. Did the Royals really need to trade Zack Greinke?
Need is a strong word, but the Royals clearly felt that there was no chance that they could keep Greinke after 2012. The losing and constant rebuilding behind him seemed to have taken its toll, but if Moustakas, Hosmer and the rest develop quickly, that could turn around quickly. More important to the Royals, they felt they were in a situation where they could trade Greinke and get significant value in return - talent that would be under contract through the middle of the decade at a low cost when the Royals expect to contend.

2. Which Zack Greinke will show up for the Royals?

In 2009, Greinke went 16-8 with a 2.16 ERA, winning the Cy Young Award. In 2010, he fell off to 10-14, and the ERA jumped over two runs per game to 4.17. So where will he stand? Which was the real Greinke? Are the Brewers getting a 27 year old ace, or a glorified #3 starter two years away from free agency?

It's very possible that he will never reach the heights of 2009 again. Let's take a look at his last three seasons. His walks and groundball/flyball numbers all stayed about the same, but fewer fly balls went out of the park, and he struck out 9.5 per nine innings, rather than 8. However, Greinke had more than his share of bad luck this year. First off, the Royals defense was the worst in the American league in converting balls in plays into outs. That .312 BABIP was among the worst of AL qualifiers, and right about in line with what a pitcher on the Royals would be expected to have. However, Greinke seemed to have several of those fall in at especially bad times - opposing players hit 26 points higher with men on base than they did with the bases empty, despite his strikeout rate being the same and home run rate being lower. A pitcher with Greinke's rate stats, pitching in front of the bad Royals defense, would be expected to have an ERA around 3.27, and in front of an average defense, it would go down to between 3.10 and 3.15.

Unfortunately for Greinke, the Brewers defense was actually slightly WORSE Than the Royals - only Pittsburgh had a lower defensive efficiency in all of baseball. On the bright side, Grienke is in the non-DH league, meaning his strikeouts will go up, and his walks and home runs will likely go down. Adjusting for the difference, his expected ERA goes down to 3.03, good for 12th in the National League. Even better for Greinke is the Brewers offense. It wasn't quite as potent as in some past years, but they were still 4th in the NL in scoring, compared to the Royals, who were 10th in the AL. An ERA in the range between 2.90 and 3.25, with the innings Greinke provides, should give him a won-loss record of something in the neighborhood of 18-9. That's probably not quite enough to compete with the Phillies aces and Tim Lincecum for the Cy Young award, but it is a legitimate #1 starter. Going into his age 27 season, the Brewers have an ace for the next two years and possibly beyond.

3. If Greinke had such bad luck last year, wasn't it foolish for the Royals to trade him while his value was low?

Maybe? The Royals got a legitimate haul for him though, and suppose Greinke blows out his shoulder in May? This was a deal Kansas City might have considered even if they thought they could resign him.

What did the Royals get back in return?

Quite a bit.

Alcides Escobar is the most famous player going to Kansas City. Before 2010, the Brewers traded JJ Hardy to the Twins to open up shortstop for the 23 year old Escobar, their #1 prospect. Meanwhile, the Royals decided Yuniesky Betancourt was good enough to go into their season as the starting shortstop. For an organization that had decided the same thing about Neifi Perez and Angel Berroa in the last decade, I suppose that was about par for the course, but it still didn't make it a good idea. So what happened? Betancourt hit .269/.288/.405-right in line with his career numbers. Escobar, though, was MUCH worse, hitting an anemic .235/.288/.326. Of the 138 major league qualifiers, he had the 133th highest slugging average and the 132nd highest OBP.

On the bright side, unlike Betancourt, Escobar was a plus defensive player, and has acceptable batting numbers in the minor leagues: .298/.353/.409 at AAA Nashville in 2009. There is possibility of improvement here, especially since Escobar's contact rates are solid. He is just going to need to hit the ball harder in order to be a major league player. At the very least, his defense makes him an upgrade over Betancourt. Long term though, he has a lot of work to do on offense to be part of the solution for the Royals.

Lorenzo Cain is a centerfielder who will turn 25 a couple weeks after opening day. Cain was solid in 2010 for the Brewers, after being fantastic in the minors earlier in the season, but there are warning signs. Cain has little in the way of power, and has been old for his level in most of the minor leagues he's played in. However, Cain is very fast, and his defense looks to be above average. More importantly, he's kept his walk rates about 10% for most of his career, which means he'll be able to keep his OBP above .330 even in seasons where he's not getting much luck in the batting average department. For a plus defensive center fielder, that is a player with value. Cain should start over Melky Cabrera this season, and be a serviceable player for a long time, and the upside here for the Royals is a pretty exciting leadoff hitter in front of Butler/Moustakas/Hosmer.

Jeremy Jeffress throws a baseball harder than just about anyone else alive. A first round pick of the Brewers back in 2006, and going into 2010, he was looking like a bit of a bust. Despite outstanding (10+ per 9 inning) strikeout rates, Jeffress simply had walked WAY too many people to make any progress, throwing too many pitches to get him through significant innings. Even more alarming was the 100 game suspension for a "drug of abuse." So, despite a fastball that sits at 100 miles per hour and can reach 102, Jeffress was on the outside looking in.

In 2010, the Brewers moved Jeffress to the bullpen, with outstanding results. Those high strikeout rates turned even higher, the walks didn't hurt him quite as much, and his ability to keep the ball in the park was magnified - across four levels he allowed zero home runs. Jeffress probably needs a couple months of fine tuning in Triple A, but there will be significant pressure to get him on the Royals major league roster. If Joakim Soria is traded at midseason, this is your closer in waiting. The upside here is a thinner Bobby Jenks in Jenks' best seasons. There is risk here, but lots of potential reward as well.

Jake Odorizzi is the upside portion of this trade. The 2008 first rounder turns 21 in March, and was fantastic at Single A Wisconsin in 2010, capped by a start in late August where he threw 8 no-hit innings against Cedar Rapids. He is mechanically smooth throws his fastball in the low 90's, touching 95 on occassion. He has work to do on his secondary pitches, but he has time. There is ace potential here.

5. How does this affect the Royals and Brewers, short term and long term.

The Brewers are back in line to compete with the Cardinals and Reds for the division title. Greinke will give them lots of quality innings, and makes them a much better team in October if they reach there. Considering the haul they gave up, they'd better reach October, because there is not a lot of help on the way. Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus had Jeffress and Odorizzi as the Brewers top two prospects.

Meanwhile, in the Royals organization, they become the #8 and #9 prospects, respectively, which just goes to show how insanely deep the Royals system is. The Royals are in a position much like the Tampay Bay Rays in 2008. After several years of ineptitude, they have had several quality drafts in a row, and they should be contenders by 2013. Trading Greinke hurts them for 2010, but they will be able to evaluate Cain and Escobar. This is a trade that looks like it makes sense for and should benefit both teams.

Moves you may have missed. Or not cared about.

You folks have probably read all that there is to read on Alfonso Soriano and Daisuke Matsuzaka, so there probably isn’t all that much more I can add to the discussion. There have been some lesser moves that may make a difference in 2007. And moves that may not.

Atlanta acquires reliever Rafael Soriano from Seattle for starter Horacio Ramirez.

Normally, it’s a good idea to pick up a starting pitcher in exchange for a reliever. This is one of those exceptions, and John Schuerholz may have quietly picked up one of the biggest steals of the offseason. Three years removed from arm surgery, Soriano threw 60 innings in relief for Seattle, with a 2.25 ERA, 65 strikeouts, and only 21 walks. Perhaps the Mariners were scared off by the season ending concussion, and feared that they may have a Matt Clement situation. However, all reports are that Soriano is throwing comfortably, and Clements demise seems to be as much about arm trouble as it was the Carl Crawford liner off the side of the head in 2005. Only three years ago, scouts named Soriano the most likely reliever to become the next Johan Santana, making the transfer from little known setup man to stud starter, because of his spectacular stuff. The Braves seem set on having Soriano in the bullpen though, which is fine as well—he’s immediately the most talented reliever they’ve had since John Smoltz. With the problems the Braves have had a closer since Smoltz moved back to the rotation, Soriano is a great bet to assume the 9^th inning role, and score at least 35 saves. Fantasy players take note, this is one of your sleepers for next year.

If the Mariners did feel Soriano was a risk, perhaps it would’ve made sense to try to acquire an innings eater type, who could rack up a solid season in Safeco Field. However, Ramirez is likely a bigger injury risk than Soriano, while not being nearly as good a pitcher. Ramirez has failed to reach 80 innings in two of the last three seasons with a variety of arm troubles. The season he stayed healthy, he had a 4.63 ERA in 202 innings, with only 80 strikeouts, 67 walks, and 31 homers allowed. Safeco will help depress that homer number, but in the more patient American League, teams like the A’s and Rangers who he will see several times will take advantage of his inabilility to put people away. Those poor K/BB numbers in the NL are likely to translate even worse into the AL.

So, while both players may offer the same injury risk, Soriano offers the reward of being an elite closer, while Ramirez, at best, isn’t likely to replace the production of Gil Meche. Another poor move in what has been a pretty awful tenure by Mariners GM Bill Bavasi.

Royals sign pitcher Gil Meche for 5 years, $55M.

Almost every offseason, a really really bad team signs a player who isn’t good to a huge contract, and there is a glut of stories praising them for being willing to show fans they care by being willing to spend money. It’s all a crock. Fans don’t really care, during the season, whether or not their team has spent money. They care whether or not their team is winning.

Signing Gil Meche does not show a commitment to winning. It shows a commitment to spending money. In four years since his return from injury, Meche has not had a park-adjusted ERA above league average even once. On the ERA+ scare, where 100 is average, he’s scored a 97, 86, 85 and 97. Meche turned 28 in September, and pitchers suddenly figuring it out at his age is exceedingly rare, unless they’re put with a Leo Mazzone or Ray Miller level pitching coach. Meche is often compared to Jason Schmidt, who DID figure it out at roughly Meche’s age, so I suppose there is hope, but the comparison with Schmidt againt the comparison with the hundreds of similar pitchers who didn’t figure it out at the same time is a pretty strong weight to the negative. The silver lining is the huge jump in his strikeout rate this year, from 5.2 per 9 IP in 2005 to 7.5 per 9 in 2006. If his ERA can begin to follow that improvement, Meche may make the jump to slightly above average pitcher, but the Royals are betting against huge odds that Meche will make such a significant improvement.

Of course, a slightly below average starter is a HUGE improvement for the Royals, whose rotation last year was somewhere in the neighborhood of abysmal. So, the thinking goes, if they have the money, why not spend it to improve their team? Which may be fine, but why commit to five years? If the Royals had signed Meche for a two-year commitment on the chance he breaks out, it wouldn’t be a big deal, as they wouldn’t be tying up funds for the future. But as it is, if Meche doesn’t make that leap, don’t you think they’d want that money to give an extension to Alex Gordon, baseball’s #1 prospect, if Gordon is anything close to the player he looks like? The problem isn’t the $11M on Meche in 2007, as maybe they don’t have any better use for that money. The problem is that $11M in 2010 and 2011, when they should be hoping to be competitive.

Cubs sign Jason Marquis to a 3 year, $21M deal.

Now, this is a deal that looks more reasonable on the surface, but actually may be just as bad as the Meche deal. According to baseball-reference.com, Meche and Marquis are actually each others most comparable players, and both are the same age (Marquis is actually a month older.) The problem is that Marquis is clearly going in the wrong direction. While there are some signs with Meche to at least consider him worth betting on, In the last three years, Marquis has gone into a tailspin. His ERA has gone 3.71, 4.13, 6.02. His K/9IP has gone down: 6.2, 4.3, 4.4. His K/BB have gone down: 1.97, 1.44, 1.28. And his HR/9IP have gone up: 1.2, 1.3, 1.6.

Marquis is heading backwards in a hurry, and the fact that he’s going to a much worse pitchers park could make things ugly. I’m talking mid 7’s ERA ugly. This is all made worse by the fact that Marquis apparently isn’t all that nice a guy. He badmouthed Mazzone on his way out the door in Atlanta, got progressively worse every season under Duncan, and moaned about not being on the playoff roster for the Cardinals, despite the fact that one of the biggest reasons they won the World Series was the decision not let Jason Marquis pitch in the playoffs. Forget the fact that $7M isn’t all that much money in today’s market. All things considered, I’d take a chance with just about any Triple A journeyman over Marquis. He’s the Cubs headache now.