12:55: Four games today. Over/under on time of games? 13:30?
12:57: Gerrit Cole is getting the start for Pittsburgh. Two notes about this. One, I'll always have a soft spot for Cole, because I saw his major league debut on TV in a bar in Monterey, CA, as part of one of the best vacations I've ever taken. Second, Cole deserves the full-on phenom treatment. Maybe we have phenom burnout? I dunno, but Cole is really, really good.
12:58: Chris Carpenter with the ceremonial first pitch. I can't remember another time with a technically active player throwing out a ceremonial first pitch.
1:02: Bob Costas calling a playoff game!!
Showing posts with label Atlanta Braves. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Atlanta Braves. Show all posts
Friday, October 04, 2013
Friday, March 23, 2012
A tribute to Chipper Jones, the greatest #1 draft pick of all time
As you've no doubt heard by now, Larry Wayne Jones announced that he is retiring at the end of the 2012 season. Unless the voters are stupid (sigh), he'll be a first-ballot Hall of Famer. A fair argument can be made that he's one of the 50 greatest players of all-time, but this space isn't going to be used today to evaluate him relative to, say, George Brett or Wade Boggs. Instead, we are going to consider Chipper in the context of June, 1990, when the Atlanta Braves made him the first overall pick in the draft. No team has ever done better with the pick.
For all of the hype that comes with being the first overall pick, it's a mixed bag. Somewhat tragically, the same month that Jones announces his retirement comes news that the two worst #1 picks of all time, Brien Taylor and Matt Bush, were arrested on charges of purchasing a large amount of cocaine and a DUI hit-and-run, respectively.
Whenever a player is taken #1 overall, it's a career filled with hope and expectations. Some, like Alex Rodriguez and Bryce Harper are considered can't-miss phenoms. Others, like Joe Mauer and Bryan Bullington are roundly criticized as "signability" picks. In every case, though, the drafting team makes their pick hoping for a future MVP who will lead his team to a World Series championship, multiple playoff appearances, and eventually retiring to a certain Hall of Fame plaque with that team's logo on his hat. The drafting team is hoping for Chipper Jones.
In terms of production for the drafting team, I wasn't totally surprised that Chipper Jones shows up as the best. I was slightly surprised, however, when I read ESPN's Dave Schoenfield's piece and realized how great the margin was. Here are the top #1 draft picks all time, in terms of WAR (per baseball-reference.com):
1. Chipper Jones, Braves, 1990: 82.7
2. Ken Griffey Jr, Mariners, 1987: 67.6
3. Joe Mauer, Twins. 2001: 40.3
4. Darryl Strawberry, Mets, 1980: 37.3
5. Alex Rodriguez, Mariners. 1993: 37.1
Only Ken Griffey, Jr. has been even HALF as valuable to his team as any other #1 draft pick as Jones was to the Braves. Additionally, of these five, only Jones amd Strawberry won World Series with their drafting teams. Jones, Mauer and Griffey all won MVP awards for their drafting team (and Rodriguez won three after leaving).
Of course, in terms of career value, Rodriguez is the greater player. Is that what a team is looking for in a #1 pick though? Let me ask that question a slightly different way, to elucidate my point. Did the Nationals draft Bryce Harper in hopes that he'll win the 2022 MVP with the Yankees? I'll wait patiently for your answer.
.
...
It's hard to answer that question without using a curse word, right? OF COURSE they don't just hope he's great, they hope he's great AND stays with the Nationals. There's not any way to argue that Rodriguez was as valuable to the Mariners as Jones has been to the Braves.
Aside: Griffey's worth to the Mariners does deserve a special mention. Not due to his production, which, while impressive, doesn't measure up to Jones'. Instead, Griffey really did save baseball in Seattle. If Griffey, who was tremendously popular and marketable, didn't break out in the early 1990's for the Mariners, it's quite likely they would have moved. Jones was a greater player who led his team to greater things on the field. Griffey kept his team in existence. Would the less charismatic Jones have had the same effect on the Mariners? Who knows? I'm not going to attempt to quantify the value in that, but it does need to be mentioned.
What's been remarkable about Jones is his consistency. While he's rarely been the very best player in his league (he DID lead in offensive WAR during his MVP season), he has NEVER had a Sub-2.0 WAR season. His worst OPS? .803, as a rookie in 1995. Even in his decline phase, his last three injury-plagued seasons, he's hit .268/.371/.444. That .371 OBP would've placed him 10th in the NL in 2011. So, while he's far from his thirteen-year (!) peak of .314/.411/.555, Jones' playing time recently has not been coming out of charity. The dude can still hit.
Another remarkable thing - Jones wasn't a pick of the can't miss variety, like Griffey, Strawberry and Rodriguez. In Baseball America's top 100 for the 1991 season, he was the #44 prospect. The consensus top prospect in the 1990 draft was a pitcher named Todd Van Poppel. However, Van Poppel was supposedly committed to going to the University of Texas. Was he serious, or bluffing for a big pay day? We found out the answer to that question when the A's took him with the #14 pick overall and gave him a then-record $1.55M signing bonus. The question we'll never know is this - would the Braves have taken Jones anyway? It's possible that the always-cagey Bobby Cox (who was GM at the time) was perfectly happy to let Van Poppel slip away and take the less heralded player he truly wanted.
So congratulations to Chipper Jones on a fantastic (and still unfinished!) career, and to the Atlanta Braves, for making the greatest draft pick of all time.
Saturday, May 07, 2011
Prospect Debut: Julio Teheran
One day after Eric Hosmer debuted with the Royals, the Atlanta Braves have called up #5 prospect Julio Teheran (minor league numbers). The 20-year old will start tonight's game against the Philadelphia Phillies.
Unlike Hosmer, who the Royals hope will take a permanent place in their lineup, Teheran's appearance will be one-and-done. The Braves had a rainout on Tuesday, forcing them to play a double header on Wednesday. Not wanting to use Tommy Hanson or Tim Hudson on short rest this early in the season, the Braves will turn to Teheran for the spot start, and will return him to the minors after the game no matter the outcome.
Teheran has pitched excellently for Gwinnett, but as Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus points out here, it's really sort of by chance that Teheran is getting the nod, since today is his normal turn in the rotation. If the schedule had fallen differently, it is possible that Mike Minor or Rodrigo Lopez, both who have also pitched quite well, would have gotten the start.
I've not yet seen Teheran pitch, so I can only go off of the glowing scouting reports.
On a personal note, Teheran will be the first major leaguer to debut who is younger than my little brother. So this makes me feel sort of old.
Unlike Hosmer, who the Royals hope will take a permanent place in their lineup, Teheran's appearance will be one-and-done. The Braves had a rainout on Tuesday, forcing them to play a double header on Wednesday. Not wanting to use Tommy Hanson or Tim Hudson on short rest this early in the season, the Braves will turn to Teheran for the spot start, and will return him to the minors after the game no matter the outcome.
Teheran has pitched excellently for Gwinnett, but as Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus points out here, it's really sort of by chance that Teheran is getting the nod, since today is his normal turn in the rotation. If the schedule had fallen differently, it is possible that Mike Minor or Rodrigo Lopez, both who have also pitched quite well, would have gotten the start.
I've not yet seen Teheran pitch, so I can only go off of the glowing scouting reports.
On a personal note, Teheran will be the first major leaguer to debut who is younger than my little brother. So this makes me feel sort of old.
Sunday, October 10, 2010
10/10/10 Live Blog!!!!
1:00: Welcome to the Sunday LiveBlog! Rays vs. Rangers will be starting momentarily. If you have any questions, comments or insight, e-mail it my way at jamesdunne24@gmail.com. We'll see how long it takes for me to get tired of this.
1:08. I love that Maddon bats John Jaso leadoff. Get that high OBP at the top of the lineup, and he starts it off with a solid single to CF. Rickey Henderson (and Tim Raines to an extent) totally changed the complexion of what a leadoff hitter should be. For awhile you would get guys like Dwight Evans and Brian Downing who could put up a high OBP in front of the power hitters. Then in the late '80's, everyone thought that it was the speed of Henderson and Raines that was making the difference. It was important, but the bigger part was how hard they were to get out.
1:14: Buck Martinez propagating the "knows how to win" myth. Tommy Hunter doesn't win because he "knows how to win." He wins because he's a pretty good pitcher in front of a good defense on a team with a good offense. Is that a bad thing?
1:27: Vlad Guerrero just hit into a double play. Vlad cooled down significantly in the second half, but I'd have to say he's the one player who cemented his Hall of Fame case this year. With the election of Andre Dawson, the comparison between the two is obvious. Both were great athletes when they were young whose knees were shot playing on the bad turf in Montreal. Both had a reputation for swinging at bad pitches. However, Guerrero is the better player, because he actually hit more of those bad pitches.
1:56: Who would have a better chance of beating the Yankees? The conventional wisdom has been the Rays, but the Rangers have Cliff Lee, who the Yankees can't be quite as patient against, and Josh Hamilton, arguably the best left power hitter in baseball, going into the best park in baseball for a lefty power hitter. Thoughts?
2:06: The Rays are very reminiscent of the 2000-2005 A's in my mind. A team that walks a lot and hits a lot of home runs, but does not hit for a high average, is well built for the regular season. Over 162 games, a team sees a lot of mediocre to bad pitching, and the approach of waiting for a pitch you can drive instead of swinging at the first strike makes lesser pitchers pay. However, in the playoffs, you face the best pitchers on the best teams. Generally, those aren't the type who are prone to giving up walks and homers. That's why the Rays, despite being a good team, have been no-hitter prone, and it's something they need to make up for in the playoffs with good defense and pitching.
3:42: Calzones interrupted my posting. Anyway, another way in which the Rays remind me of those A's teams is all the talk about how much trouble they'll be in losing Crawford, Pena and Soriano. Crawford will be a big loss, no doubt. Wishy-washy "face of the franchise" discussion notwithstanding, Crawford had 62 extra base hits and 47 steals. He's a dynamic player still in his 20's who will get lots and lots of money. Pena, however, is replaceable. He has good power, and plays good defense, but 1B who can't put up a .330 OBP are a luxury that a poor team can't afford. As he moves into his mid-30's, his inability to make consistent enough contact could lead to his value diminishing in a hurry, a la Jason Giambi. Soriano had a great year as a closer and is a very good pitcher. But again, poor teams can't pay a premium for 50 innings a year. Like those A's teams, the Rays ability to continue developing their young pitching will keep them contenders despite the loss of significant talent.
4:41: And by "live" I mean "updated once or so an hour." Anyhow, after they Rays win today, the road team has won all four games of their series. The only time that I recall a team has lost the first two of a best of five at home, and then got back their for Game 5 was the 2001 Yankees. Those Yankees did not have to go home to meet Cliff Lee, who the Rays will see on Tuesday. David Price is very good, but Lee gets the slight edge, even on the road. The big winner here is the Yankees, who will face neither of those two in Game 1 of the ALCS.
5:00: Jason Heyward has impressed me this year. Ken Griffey didn't have a .390+ OBP until his 3rd year, Barry Bonds until his 5th. Heyward's power will continue to develop, and a batting eye that good is something you can't teach. He will have some adjustments to make on the hard stuff inside, but he is already a very, very good baseball player. If he'd had the numbers he had in Atlanta in Double A, he'd still be the #1 prospect in baseball. If he's not an MVP candidate from 2012-2022, something went terribly wrong.
5:12: Something like running too hard into a wall, for example.
5:13: Maybe if he's healthy, Heyward makes it to that ball, but Brooks Conrad is crushing the Braves. Chipper Jones' injury was tough, but it looks like the Prado injury is the one having the larger affect on the Braves.
5:42: Watching Mike Fontenot making a nice play on an Omar Infante grounder, it's crazy to think that the Giants were able to put a playoff team together with almost no contribution from Pablo Sandoval. Sandoval's extra base hits fell from 74 to 50, and since he doesn't walk or play great defense, that's basically where all of his value comes from. AT&T Park is a tough place to hit, but plenty of hitters have put up 20 HR seasons there.
6:26: Love the no-hitter being broken up by the opposing pitcher.
7:21: Eric Hinske! Following Hinske's 2002 Rookie of the Year campaign, settling in to a long career as a backup four corners guy may seem like a bit of a disappointment. Hinske really seems to have had more than his share of big moments on good teams since moving over to the Red Sox four years ago. Unlike his mammoth home run off of Joe Blanton in Game 4 of the '08 series this one was a line drive that barely cleared the wall. He's not quite baseball's Robert Horry, and Big Shot Eric just doesn't roll off the tongue the same way, but let's go with it.
7:29: When Brooks Conrad called off Derrek Lee for that pop-up, I'm pretty sure Turner Field made a sound sort of like "AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHNOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOWHEW"
7:40: While the idea of the "Proven Closer" may be severely overrated, what is NOT overrated is having good pitchers in your bullpen. Billy Wagner is not as good as he once was, but he was the best reliever the Braves had.
7:46: This Giants rally is the fire, and Kyle Farnsworth is the fuel that Bobby Cox has just decided to throw onto it. Peter Moylan gave up a ground ball to second base, it's not his fault that Brooks Conrad is having a meltdown on national television. Moylan should still be in this game.
8:16: For the 29 teams about to lose out to the Yankees for the right to pay Carl Crawford $150M over the next 8 years, Jayson Werth will be a nice consolation prize. Attitude problems notwithstanding, he had a great season. 75 extra base hits this year, and four straight years with an OPS above .850. Some of those homers and doubles may turn into outs elsewhere, but his road OPS over the last four years is only about 40 points lower than his home OPS, which isn't far off the normal home/road split. He won't cost nearly as much as Crawford, and won't end up with as many years either. Because of injuries it took him awhile to get good - he's 31, so he is not going to get better than that, but he is a well-rounded player who will be a solid investment over the next four years.
9:11: For all of the talk about the inconsistency of Raul Ibanez this year, he has been one of the most consistent players of the past decade. His OBP has been between .345 and .358 every year since 2001. Despite the huge drop in power numbers this year, his OBP actually went UP two points from '09. This speaks to the consistency of his plate approach. For the criticism his contact took, he has been worth at least the $23.5M he's gotten the past two years, and is a safe bet to be worth the $10M he'll get next year. It's not the late career improvement on the level of Dwight Evans, Chili Davis or Jim Edmonds, but Ibanez has had a nice career.
9:42: I don't think I agree with taking Johnny Cueto out right here. I'm all for the quick hook in the playoffs, especially when a team is in the Reds position. Ron Gardenhire left Brian Duensing in a bit too long yesterday when he clearly didn't have good stuff. Cueto though, has been pitching very well, only one earned run in five innings, and not a whole ton of hard hit balls. The bigger issue is that Miguel Cairo isn't such a good hitter that he's likely to tie this game, and there is nobody on base, so they need two runs back. Cueto seems to me to be as good a bet as anyone in the Cincinnati bullpen to keep this a two run game.
10:42: You have to feel a little bit of sympathy for Cincinnati. After a very good season where they really didn't get as much attention as they deserved, they're running into a Philadelphia team whose pitching staff is as dominant as any and seems to be catching every break. Plus their football team is atrocious. If their season does end tonight though, they should take heart - they made a huge step forward this year. Joey Votto will likely win the NL MVP (and deserve it), Jay Bruce was one of the best players in the league in the last two months, and I'll take a Volquez/Cueto/Arroyo/Bailey/Harang rotation over any in the NL outside of Philly in 2011. They, along with San Francisco and Texas, are one of the few teams that can consider their season a success no matter what happens the rest of the way.
1:08. I love that Maddon bats John Jaso leadoff. Get that high OBP at the top of the lineup, and he starts it off with a solid single to CF. Rickey Henderson (and Tim Raines to an extent) totally changed the complexion of what a leadoff hitter should be. For awhile you would get guys like Dwight Evans and Brian Downing who could put up a high OBP in front of the power hitters. Then in the late '80's, everyone thought that it was the speed of Henderson and Raines that was making the difference. It was important, but the bigger part was how hard they were to get out.
1:14: Buck Martinez propagating the "knows how to win" myth. Tommy Hunter doesn't win because he "knows how to win." He wins because he's a pretty good pitcher in front of a good defense on a team with a good offense. Is that a bad thing?
1:27: Vlad Guerrero just hit into a double play. Vlad cooled down significantly in the second half, but I'd have to say he's the one player who cemented his Hall of Fame case this year. With the election of Andre Dawson, the comparison between the two is obvious. Both were great athletes when they were young whose knees were shot playing on the bad turf in Montreal. Both had a reputation for swinging at bad pitches. However, Guerrero is the better player, because he actually hit more of those bad pitches.
1:56: Who would have a better chance of beating the Yankees? The conventional wisdom has been the Rays, but the Rangers have Cliff Lee, who the Yankees can't be quite as patient against, and Josh Hamilton, arguably the best left power hitter in baseball, going into the best park in baseball for a lefty power hitter. Thoughts?
2:06: The Rays are very reminiscent of the 2000-2005 A's in my mind. A team that walks a lot and hits a lot of home runs, but does not hit for a high average, is well built for the regular season. Over 162 games, a team sees a lot of mediocre to bad pitching, and the approach of waiting for a pitch you can drive instead of swinging at the first strike makes lesser pitchers pay. However, in the playoffs, you face the best pitchers on the best teams. Generally, those aren't the type who are prone to giving up walks and homers. That's why the Rays, despite being a good team, have been no-hitter prone, and it's something they need to make up for in the playoffs with good defense and pitching.
3:42: Calzones interrupted my posting. Anyway, another way in which the Rays remind me of those A's teams is all the talk about how much trouble they'll be in losing Crawford, Pena and Soriano. Crawford will be a big loss, no doubt. Wishy-washy "face of the franchise" discussion notwithstanding, Crawford had 62 extra base hits and 47 steals. He's a dynamic player still in his 20's who will get lots and lots of money. Pena, however, is replaceable. He has good power, and plays good defense, but 1B who can't put up a .330 OBP are a luxury that a poor team can't afford. As he moves into his mid-30's, his inability to make consistent enough contact could lead to his value diminishing in a hurry, a la Jason Giambi. Soriano had a great year as a closer and is a very good pitcher. But again, poor teams can't pay a premium for 50 innings a year. Like those A's teams, the Rays ability to continue developing their young pitching will keep them contenders despite the loss of significant talent.
4:41: And by "live" I mean "updated once or so an hour." Anyhow, after they Rays win today, the road team has won all four games of their series. The only time that I recall a team has lost the first two of a best of five at home, and then got back their for Game 5 was the 2001 Yankees. Those Yankees did not have to go home to meet Cliff Lee, who the Rays will see on Tuesday. David Price is very good, but Lee gets the slight edge, even on the road. The big winner here is the Yankees, who will face neither of those two in Game 1 of the ALCS.
5:00: Jason Heyward has impressed me this year. Ken Griffey didn't have a .390+ OBP until his 3rd year, Barry Bonds until his 5th. Heyward's power will continue to develop, and a batting eye that good is something you can't teach. He will have some adjustments to make on the hard stuff inside, but he is already a very, very good baseball player. If he'd had the numbers he had in Atlanta in Double A, he'd still be the #1 prospect in baseball. If he's not an MVP candidate from 2012-2022, something went terribly wrong.
5:12: Something like running too hard into a wall, for example.
5:13: Maybe if he's healthy, Heyward makes it to that ball, but Brooks Conrad is crushing the Braves. Chipper Jones' injury was tough, but it looks like the Prado injury is the one having the larger affect on the Braves.
5:42: Watching Mike Fontenot making a nice play on an Omar Infante grounder, it's crazy to think that the Giants were able to put a playoff team together with almost no contribution from Pablo Sandoval. Sandoval's extra base hits fell from 74 to 50, and since he doesn't walk or play great defense, that's basically where all of his value comes from. AT&T Park is a tough place to hit, but plenty of hitters have put up 20 HR seasons there.
6:26: Love the no-hitter being broken up by the opposing pitcher.
7:21: Eric Hinske! Following Hinske's 2002 Rookie of the Year campaign, settling in to a long career as a backup four corners guy may seem like a bit of a disappointment. Hinske really seems to have had more than his share of big moments on good teams since moving over to the Red Sox four years ago. Unlike his mammoth home run off of Joe Blanton in Game 4 of the '08 series this one was a line drive that barely cleared the wall. He's not quite baseball's Robert Horry, and Big Shot Eric just doesn't roll off the tongue the same way, but let's go with it.
7:29: When Brooks Conrad called off Derrek Lee for that pop-up, I'm pretty sure Turner Field made a sound sort of like "AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHNOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOWHEW"
7:40: While the idea of the "Proven Closer" may be severely overrated, what is NOT overrated is having good pitchers in your bullpen. Billy Wagner is not as good as he once was, but he was the best reliever the Braves had.
7:46: This Giants rally is the fire, and Kyle Farnsworth is the fuel that Bobby Cox has just decided to throw onto it. Peter Moylan gave up a ground ball to second base, it's not his fault that Brooks Conrad is having a meltdown on national television. Moylan should still be in this game.
8:16: For the 29 teams about to lose out to the Yankees for the right to pay Carl Crawford $150M over the next 8 years, Jayson Werth will be a nice consolation prize. Attitude problems notwithstanding, he had a great season. 75 extra base hits this year, and four straight years with an OPS above .850. Some of those homers and doubles may turn into outs elsewhere, but his road OPS over the last four years is only about 40 points lower than his home OPS, which isn't far off the normal home/road split. He won't cost nearly as much as Crawford, and won't end up with as many years either. Because of injuries it took him awhile to get good - he's 31, so he is not going to get better than that, but he is a well-rounded player who will be a solid investment over the next four years.
9:11: For all of the talk about the inconsistency of Raul Ibanez this year, he has been one of the most consistent players of the past decade. His OBP has been between .345 and .358 every year since 2001. Despite the huge drop in power numbers this year, his OBP actually went UP two points from '09. This speaks to the consistency of his plate approach. For the criticism his contact took, he has been worth at least the $23.5M he's gotten the past two years, and is a safe bet to be worth the $10M he'll get next year. It's not the late career improvement on the level of Dwight Evans, Chili Davis or Jim Edmonds, but Ibanez has had a nice career.
9:42: I don't think I agree with taking Johnny Cueto out right here. I'm all for the quick hook in the playoffs, especially when a team is in the Reds position. Ron Gardenhire left Brian Duensing in a bit too long yesterday when he clearly didn't have good stuff. Cueto though, has been pitching very well, only one earned run in five innings, and not a whole ton of hard hit balls. The bigger issue is that Miguel Cairo isn't such a good hitter that he's likely to tie this game, and there is nobody on base, so they need two runs back. Cueto seems to me to be as good a bet as anyone in the Cincinnati bullpen to keep this a two run game.
10:42: You have to feel a little bit of sympathy for Cincinnati. After a very good season where they really didn't get as much attention as they deserved, they're running into a Philadelphia team whose pitching staff is as dominant as any and seems to be catching every break. Plus their football team is atrocious. If their season does end tonight though, they should take heart - they made a huge step forward this year. Joey Votto will likely win the NL MVP (and deserve it), Jay Bruce was one of the best players in the league in the last two months, and I'll take a Volquez/Cueto/Arroyo/Bailey/Harang rotation over any in the NL outside of Philly in 2011. They, along with San Francisco and Texas, are one of the few teams that can consider their season a success no matter what happens the rest of the way.
Thursday, December 14, 2006
Moves you may have missed. Or not cared about.
You folks have probably read all that there is to read on Alfonso Soriano and Daisuke Matsuzaka, so there probably isn’t all that much more I can add to the discussion. There have been some lesser moves that may make a difference in 2007. And moves that may not.
Normally, it’s a good idea to pick up a starting pitcher in exchange for a reliever. This is one of those exceptions, and John Schuerholz may have quietly picked up one of the biggest steals of the offseason. Three years removed from arm surgery, Soriano threw 60 innings in relief for
If the Mariners did feel Soriano was a risk, perhaps it would’ve made sense to try to acquire an innings eater type, who could rack up a solid season in Safeco Field. However, Ramirez is likely a bigger injury risk than Soriano, while not being nearly as good a pitcher. Ramirez has failed to reach 80 innings in two of the last three seasons with a variety of arm troubles. The season he stayed healthy, he had a 4.63 ERA in 202 innings, with only 80 strikeouts, 67 walks, and 31 homers allowed. Safeco will help depress that homer number, but in the more patient American League, teams like the A’s and Rangers who he will see several times will take advantage of his inabilility to put people away. Those poor K/BB numbers in the NL are likely to translate even worse into the
So, while both players may offer the same injury risk, Soriano offers the reward of being an elite closer, while Ramirez, at best, isn’t likely to replace the production of Gil Meche. Another poor move in what has been a pretty awful tenure by Mariners GM Bill Bavasi.
Royals sign pitcher Gil Meche for 5 years, $55M.
Almost every offseason, a really really bad team signs a player who isn’t good to a huge contract, and there is a glut of stories praising them for being willing to show fans they care by being willing to spend money. It’s all a crock. Fans don’t really care, during the season, whether or not their team has spent money. They care whether or not their team is winning.
Signing Gil Meche does not show a commitment to winning. It shows a commitment to spending money. In four years since his return from injury, Meche has not had a park-adjusted ERA above league average even once. On the ERA+ scare, where 100 is average, he’s scored a 97, 86, 85 and 97. Meche turned 28 in September, and pitchers suddenly figuring it out at his age is exceedingly rare, unless they’re put with a Leo Mazzone or Ray Miller level pitching coach. Meche is often compared to Jason Schmidt, who DID figure it out at roughly Meche’s age, so I suppose there is hope, but the comparison with Schmidt againt the comparison with the hundreds of similar pitchers who didn’t figure it out at the same time is a pretty strong weight to the negative. The silver lining is the huge jump in his strikeout rate this year, from 5.2 per 9 IP in 2005 to 7.5 per 9 in 2006. If his ERA can begin to follow that improvement, Meche may make the jump to slightly above average pitcher, but the Royals are betting against huge odds that Meche will make such a significant improvement.
Of course, a slightly below average starter is a HUGE improvement for the Royals, whose rotation last year was somewhere in the neighborhood of abysmal. So, the thinking goes, if they have the money, why not spend it to improve their team? Which may be fine, but why commit to five years? If the Royals had signed Meche for a two-year commitment on the chance he breaks out, it wouldn’t be a big deal, as they wouldn’t be tying up funds for the future. But as it is, if Meche doesn’t make that leap, don’t you think they’d want that money to give an extension to Alex Gordon, baseball’s #1 prospect, if Gordon is anything close to the player he looks like? The problem isn’t the $11M on Meche in 2007, as maybe they don’t have any better use for that money. The problem is that $11M in 2010 and 2011, when they should be hoping to be competitive.
Cubs sign Jason Marquis to a 3 year, $21M deal.
Now, this is a deal that looks more reasonable on the surface, but actually may be just as bad as the Meche deal. According to baseball-reference.com, Meche and Marquis are actually each others most comparable players, and both are the same age (Marquis is actually a month older.) The problem is that Marquis is clearly going in the wrong direction. While there are some signs with Meche to at least consider him worth betting on, In the last three years, Marquis has gone into a tailspin. His ERA has gone 3.71, 4.13, 6.02. His K/9IP has gone down: 6.2, 4.3, 4.4. His K/BB have gone down: 1.97, 1.44, 1.28. And his HR/9IP have gone up: 1.2, 1.3, 1.6.
Marquis is heading backwards in a hurry, and the fact that he’s going to a much worse pitchers park could make things ugly. I’m talking mid 7’s ERA ugly. This is all made worse by the fact that Marquis apparently isn’t all that nice a guy. He badmouthed Mazzone on his way out the door in Atlanta, got progressively worse every season under Duncan, and moaned about not being on the playoff roster for the Cardinals, despite the fact that one of the biggest reasons they won the World Series was the decision not let Jason Marquis pitch in the playoffs. Forget the fact that $7M isn’t all that much money in today’s market. All things considered, I’d take a chance with just about any Triple A journeyman over Marquis. He’s the Cubs headache now.
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