Three opening day starters announced previously: Liriano, Bumgarner, Darvish

Continuing my series: three opening day starters were announced previously: the Rangers will go with Yu Darvish, the Pirates with Francisco Liriano, and the Giants with Madison Bumgarner.

Darvish is the least surprising of the group. The import from NPB built upon his solid 2012 rookie season, stepping forward as one of the elite pitchers in baseball in 2014. He led the majors in strikeouts and K/9, which bodes well for continued success. While Texas has several other capable starters, the rest all come with significant injury concerns. Darvish's performance this year will go a long way in determining what the Rangers do in 2014. He's a strong Cy Young candidate and arguably the player whose team can least afford a bad season from.

Liriano had a bounceback campaign last year with the Pirates, capped by a pair of strong postseason outings. He is the best pitcher on the Pirates right now, but that comes with a caveat - the 161 innings he threw last season were the second most of his career. He's still only 30, which seems impossible, considering how much he's been up and down during his career. With the Reds and Cardinals still looking strong, the Pirates likely will depend on another strong performance by Liriano to get back to the playoffs. If all goes well in Gerrit Cole's development, he should take over the opening day role for a long time.

Of the five announced opening day starters, Bumgarner is the biggest surprise. Not a surprise because of his on-field contributions - he was the best pitcher on the Giants last year, by a fair amount - but because of his listing of more famous rotation-mates. Tim Lincecum, who pitched better in 2013 than he did in 2012, for whatever that's worth, is a two-time Cy Young Award winner. And it's not like he's some old dude - he won those awards in 2008 and 2009. Matt Cain has been the rock of the staff for years and was a model of consistency before suffering his first poor season in 2013. He is the longest-tenured Giant. Finally, Tim Hudson was brought aboard as a free agent. While he's 38, he was solid last year before a gruesome ankle injury ended his season, and has a career profile of a borderline Hall of Famer. His ERA+ of 97 in 2013 was the second worst of his career.

10/4/13 playoff marathon liveblog!

12:55: Four games today. Over/under on time of games? 13:30?

12:57: Gerrit Cole is getting the start for Pittsburgh. Two notes about this. One, I'll always have a soft spot for Cole, because I saw his major league debut on TV in a bar in Monterey, CA, as part of one of the best vacations I've ever taken. Second, Cole deserves the full-on phenom treatment. Maybe we have phenom burnout? I dunno, but Cole is really, really good.

12:58: Chris Carpenter with the ceremonial first pitch. I can't remember another time with a technically active player throwing out a ceremonial first pitch.

1:02: Bob Costas calling a playoff game!!

Francisco Liriano, fellow outcasts, lead Pirates to NLDS

I had a quick post last week about how the Red Sox having quality players at every position was the biggest reason for their success. The Pirates have been successful this year because of depth as well. They have a legitimate MVP candidate in Andrew McCutchen, one of the current great players in the game, but they have gotten contributions from several players this year. What is amazing is that so many of these players weren't valuable at all a year ago.  Unlike the Red Sox, who got bounce-back contributions from players who were hurt or underused in 2012 like Shane Victorino, Stephen Drew, and Koji Uehara, the Pirates have gotten help from players who simply were bad. 

Check out the production of these players last season:

-Russell Martin: .211/.311/.403, 24% CS, 1.8 WAR in 2012 (w/ NYY); .226/.327/.377, 40% CS, 4.3 WAR in 2013

-Mark Melancon: 45.0 IP, 6.20 ERA, 1.267 WHIP, 3.42 K/BB, -0.5 WAR in 2012 (w/ BOS); 71.0 IP 1.39 ERA, 0.958 WHIP, 8.75 K/BB, 2.0 WAR in 2013

-Marlon Byrd: .210/.243/.245, 1 HR in 153 PA, -0.5 WAR in 2012 (w/ CHC/BOS); .318/.357/.486, 3 HR in 107 PA, 1.0 WAR (after posting a 4.0 WAR w/ NYM through mid-August)

-Vin Mazzaro: 44.0 IP, 5.73 ERA, 1.682 WHIP, 1.37 K/BB, -0.2 WAR in 2012 (w/ KC);  73.2 IP, 2.81 ERA, 1.208 WHIP, 2.19 K/BB, 0.9 WHIP in 2013

-Francisco Liriano: 134.1 IP, 5.09 ERA, 5.0 BB/9, 1.1 HR/9 1.468 WHIP, -0.1 WAR in 2012 (w/ MIN/CHA); 161 IP, 3.02 ERA, 3.5 BB/9. 0.5 HR/9, 1.224 WHIP, 3.0 WAR in 2013

I know WAR is a bit reductionist, but I think it tells the correct story here - those five players produced 0.5 WAR for their teams in 2013 (the last four producing a combined -1.3). In 2013? 11.2, and 15.2 overall when including Byrd's time with the Mets. Did the Pirates get lucky or buy low? A little bit of both, it looks like. Melancon isn't this good, for example, but he was part of a generous package the team got in exchange for Joel Hanrahan, who was a complete bust with Boston. A rebound was to be expected, but not to this level. Same with Liriano. He was bad in 2012, but his home run rate was out of proportion with what he'd given up in the past. I'm guessing that Neil Huntington noticed that his HR/FB rate was 12.9% in 2012, while it was closer to 10% for his career - and the gamble paid off, as it was only 8.3% in 2013. Vin Mazzaro's career ERA is 33 points higher because of a single disastrous performance in 2011. 

Without getting ahead of myself, it's probably worth noting that the Pirates shouldn't expect the same production from this group next year. But so what? It's not like they have big, long-term contracts. The Pirates, on a limited budget, astutely filled in a roster of buy-low extras, and a lot of them came through. It's a sensible blueprint for a fringe team looking to sneak into the playoffs.

Trade Breakdown: Wandy Rodriguez to Pittsburgh

As you have likely heard by now, the Pirates acquired pitcher Wandy Rodriguez from the Astros on Tuesday in exchange for three minor leaguers: outfielder Robbie Grossman and pitchers Rudy Owens and Colton Cain. While Grossman is a pretty good prospect, this is a solid deal for the Pirates. Rodriguez is under contract for 2013 at $13M, a pricey but not burdensome amount; he also has a player option for the following year, which, as it will be his age-35 season, unless he has an excellent run between now and then, he is likely to exercise. Making a playoff run may give Pittsburgh additional payroll flexibility, and Rodriguez can have a direct impact on that.

Today it was announced, as expected, that Rodriguez would be taking the place of Kevin Correia in the rotation. This is a substantial upgrade, and makes the Pirates chances of making the playoffs much better. While Rodriguez isn't a star, he has been solid. After his career year in 2009, Rodriguez has had an ERA+ between 106 and 110 in every season. His K/9 rate is down a tad this year, from 7.8 to 6.1, he's worked around that by lowering his BB/9 from 3.3 to 2.2, while also cutting into his HR rate. He's pitched over 190 innings in each of the last three years, and is on pace to easily surpass that in 2012. Despite some injury concerns the past couple springs, Rodriguez has proven to be an above-average, durable starter. 

That is important for the Pirates, because Correia isn't really either. Despite making the 2011 All-Star team, he finished the year with a poor 77 ERA+. It was the fourth consecutive year where he'd been under 100 (and the third in those four when he'd been under 80), and with an 88 ERA+ to this point in 2012, along with a K/9 rate dropping below 4.5, Correia is unlikely to turn things around in the rotation. In addition, Rodriguez is not only a better pitcher, he's the more durable one - Correia has surpassed 160 innings only once in his career. There's a bright side to Correia too, though - he pitched well in the San Francisco bullpen half a decade ago, and until this year had solid (though not outstanding) stats in his first two trips through a lineup. It was the third time through that really seemed to give Correia real issues. So, not only is Rodriguez a clear upgrade in the rotation, there is a chance that Correia can provide value in the 'pen.

With the Pirates 2.5 games behind the first-place Reds, and with a small lead over fellow wild-card contenders in Atlanta, St. Louis, and Los Angeles, improvements like this can be major. The advanced stats may show that Rodriguez is probably worth between one and two wins more than Correia from now until the end of the year, but that's not necessarily an apples-to-apples comparison. Rodriguez, by pitching deeper into games, can force the Pirates to use their relievers slightly less frequently, improving their value as well.  Not to mention, in such a tight race, one or two games may well be the difference between a trip to the playoffs and a 21st-consecutive postseason-free autumn in Pittsburgh.

With that in mind, the cost involved is sensible, though the Astros should be credited with getting a decent haul as obvious sellers. None of the prospects involved were top-100 types, and Marc Hulet of FanGraphs has a pretty good breakdown here. Grossman is the top prospect. A centerfielder with some pop and a willingness to take a walk, he could reach Houston by midseason 2013. However, his value declines some if he needs to move to a corner. Most of his power so far has come in the form of doubles. If some of those start going out of the park, he may stick as a starter. If not, he's unlikely to sustain that walk rate against higher quality pitching. He could get stuck as a tweener, but I like his chances to at least have a career as a fourth outfielder.

Rudy Owens was looking like a real prospect after a very good 2010 season at Double-A Altoona, posting a 2.46 ERA and K/BB well above 5.0. He had a difficult adjustment to Triple-A last year, and while he's improved this year, his low strikeout rate and preponderance of fly balls pegs him as a fringe prospect with a peak as a #4 or #5 prospect. He has excellent control, so he shouldn't be neglected, but he has little in the way of star potential.

Colton Cain was a highly regarded amateur, taken in the 8th round of the 2009 draft with great stuff but very mediocre results. He's still only 21, but is struggling in High A. Houston will see if they can get a bit more out of the Texan.

So, while it's not exactly a treasure trove for Houston, they've added some necessary talent to the organization. It's not one of the more glamorous parts of the rebuilding process, but if they had several players who they could turn into top prospects, they wouldn't be the worst team in baseball. It's going to be a long way back for the Astros, and cutting payroll and adding organizational depth is what needs to be done. For the Pirates, they've improved their team for the playoff run without giving up any of their top prospects. With any luck, they'll be seen in the postseason for the first time since the era of Andy Van Slyke, Chico Lind, Doug Drabek, and that Barry Bonds fellow.

The Excellence of the Pittsburgh Defense

Well when you start with James Harrison and Troy Polamalu, excellence really should come as no surpr....

Wait, what? This is a baseball blog? And we're talking about the defense of the Pittsburgh Pirates??

At the All-Star break, the Pirates find themselves one game out of first place in the National League Central. This is a major surprise, since the last time the Pirates had even a winning record was 1992. The Pirates have been better in every facet of the game this year than last, but their most notable improvement has been in the run prevention category. The previous four seasons, the Pirates had finished in the bottom 3 in the league in runs allowed - in 2011, they rank 4th. Usually extreme leaps in run prevention are directly related to improved pitching, but in this case, the usual pitching numbers don't show much difference in quality:

-In 2007, the Pirates ranked 14th in runs allowed, 11th in the NL in K/BB ratio, and allowed 1.2 HR/9 - slightly worse than the league average of 1.0.
-In 2008, they ranked 16th in runs allowed, 16th in K/BB, and allowed 1.1 HR/9 (league average 1.0).
-In 2009, they ranked 14th in runs allowed, 15th in K/BB, and allowed 1.0 HR/9 (same as league average)
-Last year, 16th in runs allowed, 16th in K/BB, and allowed 1.1 HR/9 (league average was .9)
-This year, they are 4th in runs allowed, 15th in K/BB, .9 HR/9 (same as league average).

So, compared to last year, part of their improvement comes from allowing home runs at closer to the league average rate, but more of it comes from turning balls into play into outs:

2007: .685 Defensive Efficiency/ 15th in NL
2008: .689 DE/ 15th
2009: .700 DE/ 15th
20101' 689 DE/ 16th
2011: .716 DE/5th

That improvement can't be understated. Behind a pitching staff that strikes out fewer batters than any other NL team, the Pirates are turning 4% more balls into outs. Striking out only 6.2 per nine, to get those other 21 outs, Pirates pitchers face 29.2 batters rather than 30.4. Over the course of the season, this means they would pitch to 192 fewer batters.

Check out the effect this has had on some of the Pirates' starting pitchers:

Charlie Morton:
2010: 2-12, 7.57 ERA, 6.7 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 1.8 HR/9, .357 BABIP
2011: 7-5. 3.80 ERA, 5.3 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 0.3 HR/9. .316 BABIP

Morton's improvement has much to do with the extreme drop in home run rate - an improvement many attribute directly to pitching coach Ray Searange, who noticed that Morton was more effective with a lower release point. This emphasized the natural sink on his 95 mile per hour fastball, and has produced a ton of ground balls, and that's where the improvement in Pittsburgh's defense has made Morton's statistical improvement even more striking.

Paul Maholm
2010: 9-15. 5.10 ERA, 5.0 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 0.7 HR/9, .327 BABIP
2011: 6-9, 2.98 ERA, 5.6 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 0.5 HR/9, .252 BABIP

Maholm has only one previous season (2008) in his career with a BABIP under .300. Not coincidentally, it was the only season in his career with an ERA under 4.00.

Jeff Karstens
2010: 3-10, 4.92 ERA, 5.3 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 1.5 HR/9. .309 BABIP
2011: 7-4, 2.55 ERA, 5.3 K/9, 1.7 BB/9, 1.6 HR/9, .240 BABIP

Karstens is the most striking example of the assistance the Pittsburgh defense is providing to its mediocre pitchers. Last year Karstens allowed too many homers and struck out not enough batters. This year, he's doing the same thing and has cut his ERA in half. Karstens is having one of those years which, if the Pirates were in their normal position 20 games under .500, they'd probably trade him to a contender - this might be the best half-season Karstens ever has, his value will never be higher. A .240 BABIP isn't sustainable, and other than a slightly better walk rate, Karstens is the pitcher he's always been. I'd expect his ERA to be in the 3.85-4.15 range in the second half.


There are several reasons for the improved Pirate defense. The first is the wonderfully fantastic Andrew McCutchen, leading National League CF with an 8.3 UZR. This was a huge improvement over his performance in the second half last year, and an even bigger improvement over Jose Tabata, a more natural corner outfielder who was overmatched in center. Another big improvement has been at SS, where Ronny Cedeno has a 4.2 UZR, following his -3.6 last year. Cedeno isn't much of a hitter, so his defense needs to carry his bat for him to be worth his playing time. This year it has done so. At 3B, it's been addition by subtraction. Pedro Alvarez (-6.2 in 2010, -2.3 so far in 2011) was injured, and replaced by a combination of Brandon Wood and Josh Harrison (4.2 UZR combined). Wood and Harrison can't hit though - Alvarez can (at least he did last year, and in the minors). The defensive disadvantage with Alvarez in the lineup is more than made up for by his superior bat.

Is the defensive improvement sustainable, or just a fluke? Mostly sustainable I think. The outfield defense with McCutchen and Tabata can cover a lot of ground. The infield defense may take a small step back (Alvarez returning, Cedeno regressing), but should still be above average.

Some credit is due to Clint Hurdle, as well. He's unafraid to use defensive replacements, and his Rockies teams usually had above average defenses despite playing in spacious Coors Field. It seems possible he and his staff are doing a good job positioning their fielders. If he keeps the Pirates in the race all year, he should run away with the Manager of the Year award.