10/3/2014 Playoff Marathon live-ish blog

Greetings, I've done this post several times in the past. Real life is going to cause some interference during the day. Having a one-year old is pretty cool, but it does interfere with writing about baseball for 14 hours straight.

12:08: Strike one to Ian Kinsler. I'm going to go out on a limb and declare the Tigers the winners in year one of the Kinsler-for-Fielder deal.

12:10: Torii Hunter looked bad on that strikeout. He's a free agent after this season, and while he had a poor season he was generally a very good player for the last ten years. From 2004 to 2013 he hit .284/.343/.471. And despite only being a 0.4 bWAR player in 2014, it pushed his career number up to 50.3. I wouldn't vote for him, but there are worse players in the Hall of Fame.

12:21: Justin Verlander wasn't very good this year either, but his peripherals did come around in the second half, as he cut out those walks that killed him early in the year. No idea how he'll pitch today, but my feeling is that he'll be a good pitcher again in the future.

12:24: Speaking of peripherals, Stephen Strasburg's were awesome this year. League-best 242 strikeouts, and a sterling 2.94 FIP. My only playoff prediction is that I think he's going to be a monster. He's at a career high for innings, but he cruised into the end of the regular season.

12:31: Alex Avila has exactly 11 homers and 47 RBIs in each of the past two seasons. In 2012 he drove in 48.

12:41: Time Warner Cable isn't making this any easier. Also, Justin Verlander is pitching a no-hitter. Am I doing this right?

12:44: Tigers shortstop was one of the worst positions in baseball this season. The player they settled on, Andrew Romine, plays average defense and hit .227/.279/.275, which is almost exactly his career line over parts of four season. For comparison's sake, their starting SS on opening day was Alex Gonzalez, who hit .167/.219/.233. I expect to see Eugenio Suarez at some point this weekend.

12:48: That always scares me. Sweet grab by Chen.

12:53: Dennis Eckersley is 60? Good grief.

12:57: I started following baseball in 1988, and Dennis Eckersley's transition to relief ace, redefining the closer role, was one of the biggest stories of that time. To someone who started watching baseball this season, that would be like someone telling me about 1962.

12:59: Schoop breaks up the no-hitter. For those of you following on GameCast or otherwise on the internet, it is pronounced like the mouthwash, not like that Salt N' Peppa tune.

1:04: Speaking of Eck, pretty prescient of him, noticing that Verlander was only throwing Markakis fastballs, an he finally turned on one. Even if it gets called back, that was a rocket.

1:12: Call stands. Alice has awoken. Time for a quick call to the bullpen for a pitching change, and then some play time. I will check in periodically (maybe). More to come tonight!

2:09: Quick check-in. There were some home runs while I was gone. Anyhow, an observation that is tangentially related to baseball. When the televisionis on, Alice (my daughter) really reacts to it. During that sweet 5-4-3 double play in the top of the fifth, the announcer got appropriately excited, and Alice started yelling along with it. It was awesome.

2:33: I like the move to bring in Sanchez. Given the Tigers bullpen problems, it's worth the risk. Now I'm on record, feel free to quote me when this blows up.

2:45: FoxSports just twittered a picture of its pregame desk crew. Frank Thomas and Gabe Kapler are sitting next to each other. Do not mess with that side of the table.

5:18: So some stuff happened in the last two and a half hours? I can't provide a ton of analysis because I wasn't watching closely, and what can be said about the first game other than "The Tigers bullpen stinks." Joba Chamberlain blowing the game brings me joy.

5:26: Can Jake Peavy take the duck boat he bought into the San Francisco Bay? Because that would be kind of cool. He's clear outpitched Strasburg today, against a very good Washington lineup. It's a little bit surprising, but Peavy is 12th among active pitchers in bWAR so maybe it shouldn't be.

5:49: All three Giants pitchers in the sixth inning are ex-Red Sox. Jake Peavy and Javier Lopez people know about. Hunter Strickland was an 18th-round pick in 2007 and was traded to Pittsburgh (with infielder Argenis Diaz) in exchange for Adam LaRoche. Nine days later, the Sox flipped LaRoche for Casey Kotchman.

6:00: I'm not in love with the playing of God Bless America during the seventh inning stretch, but I am in love with it when it is played by the Marine Corps Marching Band.

6:38: Two games at once is easy. Two games at once while giving the baby a bath and cleaning the basement might be beyond my can.

7:03: Sergio Romo seems like one of those players who, by the time he finally got credit for being good, stopped being good.

7:27: Former Supreme Court Justice Jon Jay strikes out against current Supreme Commander of Worlds Clayton Kershaw.

7:41: Adrian Gonzalez has a reputation as a cool cat, but he was obviously pretty fired up there. I don't think Wainwright hit Puig on purpose, but if he did he's a fool.

7:45: Carl Crawford really had a nice bouneback season this year. He's not the player he was signed to be in 2011, but he posted a 2.4 bWAR after totaling 2.3 from 2011 to 2013. His decline is still stark - a player with an outside shot at Hall of Fame credentials four years ago is well, well short of that. Nice to see him drive in the go-ahead run.

8:29. I missed two innings putting Alice to be. In that time, Clayton Kershaw faced six batters and struck out five of them. I'm starting to think he's good at baseball.

8:34: Hey remember three months ago when Matheny took Wainwright ahead of Kershaw to start the All-Star game?

8:45: The Cardinals' relievers would pitch better if they were given numbers that indicated they weren't going to be cut in spring training.

8:55: Of course the Ashburn Award winner homers.

8:56: Adrian Gonzalez is a good defensive first baseman. Also, he led the National League in RBI despite having his worst full offensive season.

9:01: Hanley Ramirez's helmet keeps falling off. Does he need a tighter hemlet? I think that would annoy me.

9:11: Puig really closed the gap there. Great angle to keep Holliday at second base.

9:11: Three straight hits off Kershaw? What the what is going on?

9:13: There's at least a 10% chance Kershaw loaded the bases on purpose to give himself a challenge.

9:14: Pete Kozma getting put on the Cardinals postseason roster was insane, so of course Matheny is going to turn up a Yost and Kozma will hit a grand slam.

9:18: The BABIP God's are apparently unhappy with Clayton Kershaw.

9:26: Raise your hand if you expected Kershaw to give up five runs in an inning.

9:34: Before that Peralta groundout the Cardinals were 6 for 6 on balls in play in the inning. A few of the balls off Kershaw, especially the Carpenter double and Molina hit, were well struck. But that's some busted luck right there.

9:46: Yeah, totally lost track that the Angels-Royals game was set for 9:37. I am rusty.

9:51: The Royals didn't get anyone on base in the first, so they were unable to have anyone thrown out on the bases. Fortunately the Angels stepped up there.

10:03: Adrian Gonzalez goes boom. 10-8. This playoffs has been crazy.

10:10: I don't get how Pat Neshek can pitch like that.

10:11: Both games are between innings. Why are both games in between innings. More baseball please.

10:14: The third most famous author of the Federalist Papers is 2 for 4.

10:16: Offense is up in the playoffs this year because of bunting? Thanks Harold Reynolds, for actively making me miss Tim McCarver.

10:19: Joba Chamberlain's ERA is 108.00 in the playoffs. Couldn't happen to a more deserving fellow.

10:22: Legitimately great bun there by Moustakas to beat the shift. I understand stud hitters not bunting on the overshift - you want David Ortiz swinging for the fences. But if a team is going to shift like that for someone who hit .212/.271/.361 then yeah, bunt yourself onto first.

10:25: Then having your leadoff hitter sacrifice bunt in the third inning. Sigh.

10:32: Yasiel Puig up with a runner on third and two outs, down by one in the bottom of the ninth. Against a guy who throws 100. I likey.

10:36: And Mighty Yasiel has struck out. The Wainwright-Kershaw duel ends 10-9. I think you won if you bet the over.

10:38: Meanwhile a few miles south in Anaheim... Nice to see Yordano Ventura bouncing back from his tough appearance in the wild card game. Doesn't appear to have any effect, though I wonder if he'll be on a shorter pitch count.

10:55: Salvador Perez leadoff single. Does Infante bunt to get the Moustakas and Escobar?

10:57: Nope, Yost resisted the urge. I guess that's improvement!

11:05: Ventura retired 11 in a row but has given up two straight singles. That's not necessarily concerning, but he left that pitch to Aybar up and down the middle. Worth keeping an eye on.

11:07: The double play is the pitcher's best friend.

11:34: Ventura walks Trout, and Albert Pujols is coming up. Pujols is 0 for 6 in the series. Good luck, kid.

11:36: Worse pitchers than Yordano Ventura have given up game-tying hits to Pujols. That said, Ventura seems to be overthrowing a bit. I don't know if I'd let him face Kendrick here. Very dangerous situation.

11:38: Kendrick grounds harmlessly to third. 1-1 through six.

11:40: There is a fly in my family room and it is huge and it is annoying me.

11:43: Baldwinsville's own Jason Grilli on for the seventh. He struggled in the first half with Pittsburgh but pitched better after the trade out west. He was certainly more effective than Ernesto Frieri in that sort-of challenge trade.

11:52: Ventura for the seventh. At only 85 pitches and Herrera on the shelf I can see it, but I guess I'm a little surprised. Finnegan should be ready behind him.

12:03: I've had to power cycle my modem five times since starting this, twelve hours ago. Thanks for the consistency, Time Warner.

12:08: Yost makes a good move, going to Wade Davis in the tie game. And then of course C.J. Cron rips a first-pitch curveball for a double down the left-field line.

12:13: Great time for a TOOTBLAN!

12:15: Seriously, I get wanting to get to third with less than two outs. But the top of the order was coming up. He's already on second.

12:16: And I'm excited for the morons who, if the Royals win, will credit "small ball." The Angels are the ones wasting outs. Pitching and defense isn't small ball.

12:20: I really want the Royals to not score right here just to see what Yost does in another tie game in the bottom of the ninth. Stick with Davis? Go to Holland? The Mystery Box?

12:29: I know Alex Gordon is a much tougher out than Salvador Perez, but that run is important, too. Much better chance the Royals put up a crooked number this inning, making a potential comback in the bottom of the inning a significantly tougher task.

12:31: Got out of it. Trout/Pujols to start the bottom of the ninth.

12:34: I'm not sure there's a right person to face Mike Trout in the tie game of the bottom of the ninth. But Wade Davis and Greg Hollard are available, with all due respect to Jason Frasor it shouldn't be him.

12:35: And Frasor pops Trout up. Shows you what I know.

12:38: Pujols pops up too. Ned Yost's moves don't have consequences.

12:39: Extra innings again! Who needs sleep?!

12:44: Huston Street on for a second inning of work, and he strikes out Omar Infante. Pretty amazing that Street had zero games this season where he recorded more than three outs. The rigidity of modern bullpen usage drives me bats.

12:53: Brandon Finnegan needs only one pitch to get his first out. Did you know he was in college earlier this year and selected in the 2014 draft? Did you? Huh? Huh? Did you? The blue cheese is baked right in, folks.

12:59: Going to the 11th. Excellent 3-6-3 by the Royals there. Very impressive play for Hosmer to field, throw, and get back to the bag in plenty of time to receive th e relay.

1:06: Two-run homer. Eric Hosmer. Incredible.

1:21: Greg Holland is good. I can't believe the "save your closer in case your worse relievers don't blow it" keeps working.

1:24: OH MY GOD STOP CALLING HIM BIG GAME JAMES.

1:25: Error extends the game for Mike Trout. Trout is probably good enough to hit a three-run homer with only one man on base, so the Royals should be careful.

1:25: But seriously stop with the Big Game James. He's pitched in seven playoff games and is 2-4 with a 5.26 ERA. He's an awful pitcher in big games. He's done his best work in April. We can call him Cold Game James or something. But he absolutely cannot take James Worthy's nickname.

1:27: Mike Trout strikes out to end it. He is 0 for 8 in the two games. Four games today. Three decided by one run, the other going into extra innings. It is very late here in the northeast portion of the midwest, so I shall depart. Thanks if you've been following along. Also, seek help.

10/4/13 playoff marathon liveblog!

12:55: Four games today. Over/under on time of games? 13:30?

12:57: Gerrit Cole is getting the start for Pittsburgh. Two notes about this. One, I'll always have a soft spot for Cole, because I saw his major league debut on TV in a bar in Monterey, CA, as part of one of the best vacations I've ever taken. Second, Cole deserves the full-on phenom treatment. Maybe we have phenom burnout? I dunno, but Cole is really, really good.

12:58: Chris Carpenter with the ceremonial first pitch. I can't remember another time with a technically active player throwing out a ceremonial first pitch.

1:02: Bob Costas calling a playoff game!!

Rick Porcello a smart addition for someone

Rick Porcello has had kind of a strange career. A first rounder out of high school by Detroit in 2007, he was rushed through the minor leagues, making the Tigers 2009 opening day roster after only 24 appearances, all at High-A Lakeland. He was impressive enough to be ranked #21 on Baseball America's top 100 prospect list before the 2009 season, and the Tigers, who move pitchers faster than any other organization, skipped the rest of his apprenticeship.

In the majors, Porcello had a very solid rookie year, throwing 170.2 innings with a 3.96 ERA as a 20 year old. Many of his underlying stats were less exceptional though, as he gave up 23 home runs, walked 52, and struck out only 89, translating to a mediocre 4.77 FIP. In the three years since, Porcello's ERA has been closer to what his 2009 stats predicted, as he has posted ERAs of 4.92, 4.75 and 4.59. In 2012, he led the American League in hits allowed, giving up 226 in 176.1 innings.

An evening at Fenway: Red Sox 6. Tigers 3

I was lucky enough to get to go to the Red Sox game last night. A friend called last week and said he had extra tickets, which made me excited. Then I found out that Justin Verlander was scheduled to start, which made me even more excited. Then the Red Sox won on Monday, meaning that a win on Tuesday would bring them above .500 for the first time all season, and that made me apprehensive. After all, they'd been .500 six times already, and were 0-6 in games that would put them over the hump. With the seeming mismatch of Daniel Bard vs. Verlander, it seemed like they could be in line to make it 0-7.

Anyhow, my fears were allayed as the Red Sox won. The lessons from the night are that a) you don't pitch against the opposing starting pitcher, you pitch against the opposing team - this is important, because the Red Sox offense is excellent, and the Tigers really stinks, b) David Ortiz is really, really good, once again. 

From our seats up in the right field roof boxes, it was tough to tell how sharp either pitcher was. Verlander didn't get the results he normally does, but his fastball was hard, and it seemed like he had a good changeup. It looked as though the Sox really just did a good job hitting. The same cannot be said of the Tigers, baseball's most disappointing team right now at 23-26. After the signing of Prince Fielder, it looked like they were to be one of the better teams in the game, but they are eighth in the American League in scoring while allowing the fourth most runs in the league. While the pitching should come around - Scherzer is pitching better after his usually early-season troubles, and the rest of the starting rotation seems sound - the offense may be in more trouble. After Cabrera, Fielder and the injured Austin Jackson, they haven't received that much of an offensive contribution elsewhere. Alex Avila was in an awful slump but has brought his slugging percentage back over .400. The bigger issues are the sub .300 OBPs from right-fielder Brennan Boesch and designated hitter Delmon Young, along with the vortex that has been their second base position. Led by Ryan Raburn and Ramon Santiago (combined -2.1 WAR), Tigers' second sackers are batting .175/.253/.250, which probably has 55-year old Lou Whitaker interested in a comeback. The Tigers have built a pretty deep hole for themselves, and without some upgrades, will not be able to dig out of it.

As far as Ortiz, it's really a treat getting to watch him. My guess is that this won't actually be his last year in Boston, but it could, so I'm glad I got the chance to see him again. Ortiz went 3 for 4 with two doubles and a laser beam home run over the Green Monster. He's been one of the best hitters in the American League this year, and now has 331 home runs in a Red Sox uniform. I'm lucky to have had the chance to see him so many times.

Daniel Bard, who I wrote about this past weekend, had a nice game, though it's hard to say anything definitive. He was generally throwing about 93, where he's been all season, but did seem to have a few more topping out in the 95-96 range. It took him 94 pitches to get through 5.1 innings, and he allowed two home runs after only allowing three in his first nine games. Without Jackson in the lineup, the Tigers lineup wasn't Bard's toughest test, but it was a solid outing.

As far as the experience goes, the game was a blast, as Fenway Park almost always is. We had about a 45 minute rain delay as some pretty crazy thunderstorms moved through in the eighth. After that, it took only about 15 mintues to close out the game. I like the right field roof box seats, which give a nice open view of the field at a reasonable price. It's amazing to walk through and look at the changes made in the 10 years since the new ownership came on. Some of it is obvious to those watching at home, like the Green Monster seats and the roof deck over where the retired numbers are. 

My personal favorite is the concourse and picnic area in what used to be a storage area between the grandstand in the bleachers. It's a wide open area filled with food vendors and maintains the feel of the park, while also fixing what was once the biggest flaw of Fenway - the fact you couldn't walk all the way around it. If you had bleacher tickets, you were stuck either in the bleachers, or the area underneath. Now you can enter in any gate. 

My least favorite improvement is the shutting down of Yawkey Way on game day. It detracts from the whole "downtown ballpark experience" in my view. Part of the fun of having a park in a busy city location is all the people who don't have tickets walking around, enjoying the area - and just living. People who live over on Brookline Ave. or Boylston Street are just there. Now, though, if you want to get around the park on the outside, you have a pretty long route to navigate, making a miserable experience for the neighbors. I agree with closing the street to vehicle traffic, but you shouldn't need a ticket to walk down Yawkey Way.

10/1 Playoffs Liveblog!

A little later starting here than I wanted to be, so let's dive right in.

2:07pm: Leadoff hitter Willie Bloomquist singles of Yovani Gallardo, on the first pitch. I haven't even had time to get my scoresheet ready. I never knew Gallardo wore #49 to honor Teddy Higuera. The stuff you learn.

2:10: Justin Upton to the plate. An excellent season to be sure, but I don't know how he can be considered an MVP candidate with the season Matt Kemp had. 

2:11: I hope someone other than Bernie is watching this series.

2:12: Willie Bloomquist thrown out at the plate in the first inning by 30 feet with the cleanup hitter on deck. It's like I'm watching the Red Sox again!

2:17: Jerry Hairston getting the start for Milwaukee over Casey McGehee. Considering that Hairston was a better hitter and pitcher this year, that seems a sensible move.


2:18: My wife is liveblogging with me. This scheme to have her watch hours of baseball with me is genius. Until about hour seven, when she dumps her yogurt on my head. 

2:24:  "Joe West is the crew chief for this series." Over/under on ejections is set at 9.5. 

2:28: Ryan Roberts probably deserved more attention for having 2011's best "where did that come from" season, except for nobody really cares about the Diamondbacks, so nobody noticed. Still,  .249/.341/.427 with good defense at 3B. Classic minor league slugger who finally got the chance to perform, and did. The strange thing is that he didn't have to sign a minor league contract with the A's for that to happen.

2:33: This seems like a good time to mention that Miller Park is probably the best park that nobody talks about being good. Pittsburgh, San Francisco and Baltimore are all great, and Fenway and Wrigley are classic, of course. Miller Park is great, complete with the best beer and food I've come across. 


2:37: Do you think the Yankees would trade Curtis Granderson for Ian Kennedy, Austin Jackson, and Phil Coke? A lot has been made about how great that trade was for the Yankees, but did it? The Diamondbacks ended up getting Edwin Jackson (who they turned into Daniel Hudson) while the Tigers got Max Scherzer and Daniel Schlereth. With all three teams winning their divisions, and the components all playing major roles, I'd say it's a rare trade that worked out well for THREE teams. 

2:43: Pop out by Yuniesky Betancourt! Before the season, I wrote an entry questioning whether Betancourt was the best the Brewers could do. Despite the incredible .7 WAR, I still don't think he is.  When a .252/.271/.381 line gets a positive offensive WAR, it's easy to see why so many people are dismissive of the statistic. 

2:47: Christine: "This is a long inning!"  Hahaha, you have no idea what you are in for! And with that, Jonathan Lucroy lines to left.

2:52: "What time are the Red Sox on tonight?" Is that enough reason to get a divorce? Octoberfest will fix this... 

2:52: "Oh, I meant the Yankees." Yep, divorce. 

2:55: Back to baseball - Solid 1-2-3 inning from Gallardo. Matt Williams sending Bloomquist looks especially bad now, as Gallardo has really settled in.  The Diamondbacks really need to take Game 1 with Greinke going tomorrow. 

3:00: A test of the emergency broadcast system? At 3:00 on Saturdays??? What happened to Corey Hart? Comcast I should punch you. 

3:03: Corey Hart apparently grounded out to third base. I'll never get to see it, though. Ian Kennedy is settling in nicely as well.  

3:06: This "which Upton brother is the family watching" story would be much funnier if they all went to watch Justin because he's better.  


3:08: Jarrod Parker is apparently available in the Arizona bullpen. I miss the days where teams would at least call up their prospects before 9/1 in order to make sure they are playoff eligible. They should either enforce the rule, or allow anyone in the organization by 9/1 to be on the playoff roster, whether or not they're in the majors. The roster gymnastics that teams are allowed to get away with are embarrassing. 

3:14: "Don't miss new episodes of Kendra and Dirty Soap. On E!" I wouldn't say I'll be "missing" them. 

3:16: Braun/Fielder/Weeks this inning. Now, a picture of the Brewers dressed like cowboys. 


3:20: Single for Braun. Double for Fielder. Weeks is HBP. Bases loaded for Hairston, Betancourt, Lucroy. 


3:22: Decision to play Jerry Hairston pays off, RBI sacrifice fly. 1-0 Brewers. 

3:27: Christine is now opening wedding gifts. I think she has given up. 

3:29: "Allright, what's going on?" Back in. 


3:31: 13 of the last 14 retired by Gallardo. We're through four and a half innings in like 80 minutes. Being a Red Sox fan doesn't prepare me for things that move this quickly. 


3:36: Hitting Nyjer Morgan with a pitch with Braun on deck and Fielder in the hole doesn't seem like a great strategy. 

3:38: ".332. So almost 1/3 of his runs are batted in?" Still, I think my wife knows more about baseball statistics than Dan Shaughnessy. 

3:45: Wait, why is the roof closed?  


3:46: "The biggest sports weekend in Wisconsin history." That sounds like a backhanded compliment if I ever heard one. 

3:49: Is it just me, or has sliding into first base become something of an epidemic this year? Someone has to be keeping a stat on this, right? "Hey, I might be out at first, why do I do something that slows me down and increases my chances of getting hurt!" Didn't you listen to your little league coach?

3:53: Whoa,  weird backwards shadows, with the pitcher in the shade and the batter in the sun. I think that might even be harder than the opposite. 

3:56: Triple for Yuniesky Betancourt, who I have never spoken poorly of. Genius move for the Brewers to acquire him and stick with him through his struggles. 

3:59: RBI single by Jonathan Lucroy on a pitch way up and in. 2-0 Brewers lead. With the way Gallardo is going, that's a valuable insurance run. For what it's worth, the Brewers now have an 86% chance of winning, according to ESPN.com's Gamecast.  


4:01: The avocado commercial!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 

4:07: Nyjer Morgan with the nice catch crashing off the wall. I'm happy Good Nyjer Morgan showed up this year. Evil Nyjer Morgan is probably lurking somewhere, ready to strike, and giving both Washington Nationals' fans recurring nightmares. 

4:10: Do my ears deceive me, or did someone at TBS think it was a good idea to use a Britney Spears song as a bumper coming out of commercial? I hope somebody has been fired. 

4:18: Ryan Braun with a nice double down the right field line on a pitch low and way off the outside corner. He's now 3 for 4.


4:19: Surprised to see Kennedy pitching to Prince Fielder.... and as I type this, he hammers a home run over the right field fence. I was starting to write - I'm surprised, because Kennedy is probably going to be pinch hit for in the next inning, so either a lefty reliever pitching to Fielder, or having Kennedy walk him to pitch to Weeks, would have made more sense.


4:23: I didn't even realize the Diamondbacks had traded for Brad Ziegler. Ziegler has been one of the better relievers of the past few years - career ERA of 2.43 in 252 career innings. He gets the Weeks ground out to end the inning. Brewers lead 4-0, going into the 8th. 

4:27: Is the Brewers organist playing "Sweet Caroline" in an attempt to mock me?  He even did it to me in the 8th inning! I had a discussion regarding this with some friends, and the "new" Red Sox "fans" who would sing Sweet Caroline when they just blew a lead against the Yankees has become my least favorite part of the Fenway experience. It made steam come out of my ears. Does that mean I take baseball to seriously? YES! Of course it does! I'm writing an 18,000 word blog about 12 hours of games, and having my wife do it too! What extra sign did you need that I take baseball too seriously?


4:28: Ryan Roberts sticks it to the Brewers' organist with a solo homer. Brewers' lead is cut to 4-1. 

4:31: Awesome to see Sean Burroughs pinch hitting. No sarcasm here, really an amazing comeback.  

4:33: After the Roberts home run, Gallardo strikes out the next three batters. That gives him nine through 8 innings. At 106 pitches, I expect to see Axford for the 9th. 

4:37: Yep, there's Axford warming up in the bullpen. 

4:40: Jerry Hairston walks. The Brewers were already my pick to win the World Series. With Hairston in instead of McGehee, I'm feeling even stronger about that. 

4:43: Mark Kotsay is up. Christine posts: "I believe that is the guy with a really attractive wife." Note to self - I could talk for days about Mark Kotsay's throwing arm or his performance in the college World Series and his excellent years with the Marlins and A's, and she's not going to remember. Mention that his wife is hot, and she never forgets...

4:46:  Axford is in. After a rough start to the season, he was dominant the last five months. Really though, we remember him because of his mustache. 

4:49: Axford blows a 96 mph fastball by Justin Upton. One out to go.  

4:53: Miguel Montero with a routine grounder to Rickie Weeks to end it. Brewers win 4-1, and go up 1-0 in the series. Seven minutes until the next game! 

5:04: Settling in for the Cardinals-Phillies game. I've opened a new bottle of beer. Christine has opened a new bottle of wine.  All is well!


5:06: Roy Halladay vs. Kyle Lohse. Good luck Cardinals!


5:06: Tony LaRussa is managing, so I need to leave an extra half dozen pitcher spots on my scorecard... 


5:08: Rafael Furcal with the leadoff single. That's one more hit than Halladay allowed in Game 1 of the NLDS last year. 

5:11: Halladay vs. Pujols. Can't type, watching. 

5:12: Four pitch walk. Roy is no fool. He'll take his chances with Berkman.


5:13: Three run homer for Lance Berkman. 3-0 Cardinals. Already more runs allowed by Halladay than in 20 of his 32 starts. He only gave up one home run in the regular season with men on base.

5:20: Lohse with three straight groundouts on six pitches. It's like he and Halladay switched bodies.  

5:25: Ryan Howard, defensive ace! Retires John Jay, one of the authors of the Federalist Papers, 3-1, Halladay covering.  

5:29: Deion Sanders is still trying to convince me to buy DirecTV.  


5:33 Kyle Lohse has retired the first six Phillies. They should probably try taking a couple pitches. If they hadn't been in the playoffs the last four years, the announcers would probably be talking about how nervous and inexperienced they are. 

5:37: Halladay vs. Pujols. Take two.

5:38: Pujols ripped two straight balls foul. He then slightly rolled over an inside changeup to third base. Sounded like a broken bat.


5:39: Halladay breaks Berkman's bat as well. He's settling in, I think.

5:45: Kyle Lohse with another 1-2-3 inning, this one on only 10 pitches.  After three, he's only at 23 pitches. Phillies need to make him work harder. 

5:51: Halladay responds with a 10 pitch inning. The commercial breaks are lasting longer than the innings.  

5:55: Lohse strikes out Jimmy Rollins for his first K of the night. 


5:56: One out double for Chase Utley, first hit for the Phillies. When I was at the University of Rochester, we would go to Red Wings games. In the 2003 opener, Chase Utley, Playing for the Scranton-Wilkes Barre Red Barons, hit two massive home runs. He was called up that summer, and has been generally awesome ever since. 

6:02: David Freese drops a Shane Victorino foul pop... This usually ends badly.

6:04: Indeed. RBI single for Victorino, Chase Utley scores to cut the lead to 3-1.

6:04: Raul Ibanez flies out on the first pitch to end the fourth. After several years of consistent performance, putting up OBP's between .345 and .358 every year from 2001 through 2010, Ibanez really cratered this year, down to .289. 


6:06: "You never write about me anymore." 

6:08: Halladay strikes out John Jay. What a Commie.  

6:10: Christine appears to be editing her Google+ account. There's bored, there's very bored, and there's so bored that even google+ is more exciting than what you're doing. 

6:11: 11 in a row retired by Halladay. After an hour, we're halfway through the game. Josh Beckett takes this long between pitches.  

6:23: Halladay vs. Pujols, Take 3.  

6:24: Long at bat there - Halladay really wanted that curveball on the 0-2 pitch. Ended up  inducing a 2-2 groundout on a curve. 

6:25: Halladay strikes out Berkman. 14 in a row retired by Halladay. He now has 7 K's through 6 innings. Lohse is shutting down the Philly offense though.


6:25: Avocado commercial!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

6:33: Bad swing by Chase Utley on a nasty changeup leaving Rollins on first with one out. Hunter Pence with a first pitch single up the middle now, bringing up Ryan Howard with first and second. Howard had the lowest SLG of his career for the second straight year. Big AB here, as the heart of the Philly lineup may not be up again until the 9th.

6:39: This is what Ryan Howard thinks about your "falling slugging percentage." Three run homer to right, Phillies take a 4-3 lead.  

6:42: Victorino follows the homer with a solid single. Lohse shouldn't be tiring, he's only at 73 pitches. His pitches have been all over the place since the homer. 

6:43: Raul Ibanez with a two run homer, and this game has quickly gotten away from Lohse. This one was on a high hanging change-up. Philly fans seem ok with Ibanez now. That'll be it for Lohse, here comes Octavio Dotel. 

6:50: "I'm sick of this song." I agree, Christine. I agree. I don't know who at TBS is in charge of music, but no.  

6:53: The good news for the Cardinals is that Octavio Dotel stopped the bleeding. The bad news is that they're loing by 3 runs and are facing Roy Halladay. With nine outs left, Albert Pujols is eight batters away. Uh oh.  

6:58: Three straight ground outs. And Cliff Lee tomorrow.  

7:00: Iced coffee time!


7:04: Leadoff single by Halladay off Mark Rzdjfsaigfedfgliagxzvczynski. Texas game scheduled to start in three minutes. Double duty!

7:08: Desmond Jennings back up to leadoff for the Rays. Meanwhile, Chase Utley singles to load the bases in Philly, with the middle of the order coming back up. Rzepczynski fails to retire any of the three batters he faces. Mitchell Boggs will relieve him.

7:10 First big scoresheet error of the night. I just put Cardinals reliever Mitchell Boggs as the CF batting second for the Rays. Keeping two scoresheets at once is dangerous business.  

7:12: Grounder back to Boggs by Hunter Pence forces Halladay at home, bringing up Ryan Howard with the bases loaded. Ducks on the Pond, as Joe P. would say. Meanwhile, B.J. Upton doubles in Texas, bringing up Longoria.  

7:15: Howard hits a sac fly to right, scoring Rollins. 7-3 Phillies lead.  

7:17: Shane Victorino rips an 0-2 slider to right for an RBI single. 8-3. Meanwhile, the Rays have loaded the bases off of Derek Holland, with game one hero Kelly Shoppach coming up. 

7:19: Philly Phan Phavorite Raul Ibanez rips a high straightball to right, scoring Hunter Pence. 9-3 Phillies.  

7:21: Boggs gets Placido Polanco to fly out to right, ending the inning. Polanco and Carlos Ruiz are the only Phillies without hits. Holland and Shoppach are engaged in a 8+ pitch at bat.


7:22: Shoppach walks, scoring Upton. 1-0 Rays. 

7:23: Holland gets out of the jam allowing only the one run. He gets Sean Rodriguez to hit a grounder to Kinsler, forcing Shoppach at second. Here comes the reputed "Big Game" James Shields.  

7:28: You know, it's easy to bash announcers, so I need to say what an excellent job Dick Stockton is doing in this game. Thumbs up. 


7:29: 21 in a row retired by Halladay. 

7:33: Roy Halladay comes out to bat in the bottom of the 8th! And Dick Stockton hasn't even referred to a complete game as "a lost art" yet. I think he's violating his contract.

7:35: The narrative, repeated on the telecast by Bob Brenley, that the Phillies "window of opportunity" may be closing, because of the advancing age of their team, seems to be overstated. They seem to do a good job developing players who they can either insert in the lineup or trade for an established regular. And while Roy Oswalt showed some signs of age this year, Halladay, Lee and Hamels were three of the four best pitchers in the NL. This team will be good going forward. 

7:39: Chase Utley with a double to right, sending Jimmy Rollins to third. They might want to save some of this, no? Meanwhile in Texas, Desmond Jennings with a two out double.

7:40: Hunter Pence with a two-run single up the middle, knocking Mitch Boggs from the game. 11-3 Phillies. 

7:43: Arthur Rhodes in for the Cardinals. As I mentioned in an earlier post, Rhodes has been around so long that he was a teammate of Dwight Evans and the late Mike Flanagan on the 1991 Baltimore Orioles.  

7:45: Rhodes gets Ryan Howard to ground out, ending the 8th. On to the 9th with the Phillies up 11-3.  

7:48: After a 20 minute wait, Halladay does not come out for the 9th, depriving us of a final Halladay-Pujols encounter. Michael Stutes in for Philly.  

7:50: Allan Craig leads off the 9th with a walk. First Cardinal baserunner since Skip Schumaker led off the 2nd with a single.  

7:52: James Shields strikes out Adrian Beltre and Mike Napoli in the 2nd, but has to use a lot of pitches to get through the inning. He's at 28 pitches through two innings, which isn't so bad, but it is a lot for facing only six batters. 

7:53: Backup catcher Gerald Laird will pinch run for Albert Pujols. The Big Puma is up with runners on first and second. I apologize to both of my readers everywhere for failing to use the name "Big Puma" until we're almost done with this game.


7:56: Adron Chambers, who I first heard of yesterday when I was looking over the team rosters, hits an RBI single off of Michael Stutes. 11-4. 


7:57: Michael Stutes gives up his third hit of the inning, this one to Yadier Molina. Charlie Manuel decides he's had enough and is going to Ryan Madson. 


7:59: Tommy Lee Jones' delivery in this Ameriprise commercial is reminiscent of Sam Waterston trying to sell us Old Glory Insurance.

8:01: Christine's boy Skip Schumaker with a two-run double off of Madson.  This is why Roy Halladay likes to complete his games. 11-6 Phillies.


8:03: Matt Holliday to pinch hit! With two on and two out, a homer here will make Tony LaRussa feel stupid for pinching running for Albert Pujols.


8:04: LaRussa is saved that ignominy. Madson strikes out Holliday, Phillies win 11-6.


8:10: Don Orsillo informs us that the six RBI that Kelly Shoppach has in the playoffs equal his total in any month this year. However, I should point out that yesterday's game was in September, so Shoppach only has one playoff RBI this month. Me trying to point out what month his RBI counts in is probably a good sign that I've gone insane.

8:11: Am I the only one who considers throwing errors by the pitcher to be ironic? Anyway, Casey Kotchman reaches, then goes to second, on Derek Holland's overthrow.  

8:15: The error is costly. Two run homer for Matt Joyce that clears the right field wall by plenty. 3-0 Rays.  

8:22: James Shields throws five straight change-ups to Josh Hamilton. He knocks the fifth one between the first and second basemen for a single. Two-on, nobody out for the middle third of the Texas lineup. 

8:24 Buck Martinez tells us that Michael Young is the right person to have up with a man in scoring position, because he had the most at bats in 2011 with runners in scoring position. Ok. Young singles anyway. Bases loaded for Adrian Beltre.  

8:26: Adrian Beltre drives in Andrus the hard way, as he's hit in the leg with what looked like a curveball. 3-1 Rays, with MIKE NAPOLI coming up with the bases loaded.  

8:31: Mike Napoli hits a two run single, tying the game and proving once again that Mike Scioscia is always wrong. 3-3 tie.  

8:37: We're underway in New York. Meanwhile in Texas, David Murphy gets a second life when umpire Kirwin Danley calls a ball foul prematurely.  

8:38: David Murphy strikes out, but the pitch bounces away from Kelly Shoppach. Adrian Beltre scores, Murphy reaches, 4-3 Rangers.

8:39: Grounder to shortstop by Mitch Moreland. Sean Rodriguez throws him out at first. James Shields thinks it's the third out, and walks off the field. Except, it wasn't the third out. Mike Napoli scored on the play. 5-3 Rangers. 

8:44: Brandon Inge throws out Jorge Posada at home for the first out of the second, then Doug Fister strikes out Derek Jeter, the greatest and most clutch baseball player of all time.  

8:46: The always informative in-game manager interview.  

8:47: Fister strikes out Granderson, and the Tigers get out of a jam. In Texas, a leadoff double by BJ Upton leads Alexi Ogando to start getting warmed up. Ogando really seemed to run out of gas in the second half. 9-3, 2.92 ERA, 3.4 K/BB ratioin the first half, 4-5, 4.48 ERA, 2.4 K/BB in the second. That's why he's in the bullpen rather than the rotation.


8:48: Mike Napoli thows out BJ Upton stealing, proving once again that Mike Scioscia is always wrong. 

8:59: Doug Fister strikes out Alex Rodriguez. Ben Zobrist makes a nice play on a ball up the middle hit by Michael Young, but can't get quite enough on the throw to get him at first.


9:00: Christine gives up. That was quite a run. Meanwhile, Fister strikes out Mark Teixeira to end the 3rd. In Texas, Adrian Beltre ends the 5th with a grounder to second that forces Young. 

9:02: TBS keeps telling me that "The Big Bang Theory" is very funny, but in my experience, that's not the case.  

9:03: Ron Washington goes to Alexi Ogando, which seems to me to be the right decision. It's as close to a must-win as it can be for the Rangers in a non-elimination game, and Ogando's stuff is better naturally than Holland's. Holland wasn't especially sharp tonight anyhow. 


9:04: Ogando is throwing smoke, 95 with natural movement, striking out John Jaso. 


9:05: Why is Jim Leyland batting Ordonez/Young in the 2 and 3 spots? To make sure Miguel Cabrera comes up with as few runners on as possible? Yes, I know Young homered, but that sort of exaggerates the point - he has good power, but low on base skill. He's a born 6 or 7 hitter. 

9:08: Ivan Nova strikes out Cabrera to end the 4th, as Fister vs. Nova turns into the pitching duel that Sabathia vs. Verlander was supposed to.  

9:11: Did Ron Darling just reference Warren Zevon's "Excitable Boy"? That's pretty awesome. 

9:12: Jorge Posada steps in. Meanwhile, Jesus Montero still exists. 


9:13: Mike Napoli with a lead off single, giving me another chance to rag on Mike Scioscia. 

9:14: Doug Fister strikes out Posada. Jesus Montero is making sure all of the helmets in the dugout are in the correct compartment, and making sure the canisters of Big League Chew are full. 

9:16: Russell Martin, who hates the Red Sox, is up. Now is a good time to mention that he got run out of LA because he enjoyed partying more than baseball.  Martin grounds out the third base. So yeah, the feeling is mutual, Russy boy. 


9:19: Back to back singles by Napoli and Cruz will drive Not So Much Game James out in the 6th. Jake McGee in. 

9:23: Craig Gentry in for David Murphy to counter the Jake McGee move. Possible overmanaging here by Ron Washington - Gentry is more likely to hit McGee, but Murphy is the better defensive player, and the Rangers already have the lead. I'd prefer to have Murphy in.


9:24: WOW. For the second day in a row, the Rangers sacrifice bunt at a WRONG time. If the Rangers were going to take David Murphy out for a pinch hitter who is worse defensively in a game they have a lead, they're doing it for immediate offense, right? Then WHY OH WHY is Craig Gentry sacrifice bunting here?? Couldn't Murphy have done that, then still been in the game? Terrible. 


9:25: Ivan Nova walks Alex Avila. He is the first baserunner to reach of Avila, and this ends a string of 11 straight retired by Yankee pitching. In Texas, McGee hits Mitch Moreland, loading the bases. This will knock McGee from the game. 


9:26: Juan Cruz in for Tampa. In New York, Jhonny Peralta singles to center with two on. The Tigers try to score Avila, but he is thrown out by 20 feet, even though Granderson sort of angled the ball in funny, and Jeter's relay was about five feet up the line. Wasted outs all over the place here.


9:28: Two run double for Ian Kinsler. 7-3 Rangers. 

9:38: Juan Cruz strikes out Michael Young to end the 6th. In New York, Curtis Granderson singles to end a streak of 11 consecutive batters retired by Doug Fister.


9:40: Robinson Cano hits a ball off of the top of the left field wall, scoring Granderson from first. 2-1 Yankees. 


9:41: Koji Uehara relieves Alexi Ogando for reasons I don't really understand. Off day tomorrow, and Ogando is stretched out. Hm. 

9:42: They're reviewing Cano's double to see whether it left the park. Uehara walks Jennings to lead off the 7th.  


9:44: Cano's ball ruled in the park after the review. In Texas, a three run homer for Evan Longoria off Uehara cuts the Rangers lead to 7-6. Remember, Alexi Ogando was removed from this game for no reason. This will drive Uehara from the game, after he retires none of the three batters he faces.


9:45: Alex Rodrigez flies out to center, stranding Cano at 2B. Give Girardi credit though - he has Granderson/Cano batting 2 and 3. On other teams, they'd still be batting 5th and 7th. 

9:49: Darren Oliver, who the Red Sox traded Carl Everett for back when Oliver was still a bad starter, before he became a good reliver. Oliver was released after two months by the Sox, but considering it got Everett off of the team, it might have been the best trade they ever made.  Could the Red Sox have made him a reliver? Sure, Grady Little could've done a lot of things. 

9:52: Following an Austin Jackson leadoff walk, Maggio Ordonez hits into a double play. Delmon Young then swings at the first pitch, and flies it lazily to right. In Texas, Darren Oliver settles the game back down. Rangers still lead 7-6. 

9:57: It should be mentioned that the Tigers are batting three of the four lowest OBPs in their lineup in the first three spots. Which is why Miguel Cabrera didn't drive in enough runs to get MVP consideration.

9:59: Brandon Gomes in for Tampa. This may sound like a sportscaster cliche, but Adrian Beltre does NOT get cheated on his swings. He pops to the second baseman in short right field to start the 7th. 

10:04: Doug Fister is pitching a little too carefully to Jorge Posada, consider that this isn't 1999.  He walks him, on what Brian Anderson terms an "unintentional intentional walk." 


10:05: Russell Martin hits a soft grounder to short because he is a short, drunk, lazy punk. 

10:06:  Mike Adams in for Texas. April superstar Sam Fuld pinch hits for Sean Rodriguez. Brett Gardner hits a two out single to score Teixeira and Posada, making the decision to pitch carefully to Posada even more foolish. Compared to the decision to bat your three lowest OBP guys in the first three spots though, it's small bananas. 

10:07: Fuld flies to center, because it's not April.  

10:12: Charlie and Ethan are here, with beer! This will get me through.

10:14: It won't get Doug Fister through, though. He walks Curtis Granderson and is knocked from the game. 


10:18: Al Albuquerque does much worse. Grand Slam Robinson Cano, giving the Yankees an 8-1 lead. 


10:18: Seconds later, Mitch Moreland homers to deep right field, giving the Rangers an 8-6 lead. 

10:19: At least Alex Rodriguez still can ground out to second, allowing us to continue our game of "how bad can Alex Rodriguez get while the announcers still talk about how dangerous he is."

10:22: Joel Peralta in for the Rays. Neftali Feliz warming in the bullpen for the Rangers.  


10:29: Neftali Feliz in for the 9th, and is throwing 98 as usual. In New York, Victor Martinez works a 12 pitch walk, which is why he's batting after Miguel Cabrera, and Delmon Young is before? Ok. 

10:36: Feliz holds down the save. Rangers win 8-6, and the series is tied 1-1. Game 3 will be Monday, with David Price vs. Colby Lewis.


10:37: Ryan Perry in for Detroit, which is a sign of what Leyland thinks of Ryan Perry. 

10:41: Perry strikes out Posada, which Fister probably would have done if he'd thrown him strikes rather than a series of off speed pitches out of the zone.  

10:45: Short fat drunk Russell Martin strikes out.  

10:48: Still can't understand why Verlander and Sabathia aren't starting tomorrow. They threw about the same amount as their usual side session yesterday. Down 1-0, the Tigers can't afford to have Verlander start only one game. 

10:51: Austin Jackson strikes out to end the 8th. It's Jackson's second strikeout of the game, following a regular season where he struck out 181 times. Jackson's defense makes him a sensible start in CF, but that doesn't mean he should bat leadoff.  

10:57: Daniel Schlereth is in the game for Detroit. This is only interesting because his father was on the Redskins. 

11:07: This game is wicked boring. Alex Rodriguez struck out again though, which is cool. 

11:18: There are a lot of reasons Ivan Nova's game is impressive. The "number of innings in relief" record is not one of them. Because this game is a continuation based on new rules. So can we stop talking about it, announcers? Ok, thanks.  

11:24: Slow grounder to Jeter by Alex Avila scores a run. 9-2.

11:27: Single between short and third by Raburn scores Cabrera. 9-3, which serves to make Nova's pitching line look a little less great. Final count: 6.2 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 4 BB, 5 K.


11:29: Jhonny Peralta single to load the bases means Mariano Rivera is in the game. Luis Ayala stinks again. 

11:33: Rivera strikes out Betamit to end the game. But beer is still yummy. After way too many words, I'm signing off. If you read all of this, seek help.

2011 Playoff Preview, AL Division Series Edition

Here we are. It's the playoffs, and we're just in time for me to predict eery series incorrectly, the way I almost did in 2006. (Hey, I got the Mets over Dodgers right!) Don't you remember those 2006 World Champion Twins! Long story short, these are probably wrong. That's never stopped me before though.

Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees

Detroit: 95-67. Scored 787 runs, Allowed 711 runs.

New York: 97-65. Scored 867 runs, Allowed 657 runs.

Initial irrelevant thought: These two teams have the best home uniforms in baseball. So win or lose, these teams will look sharp doing it. 

Expected lineup:

	Yankees	WAR			Tigers	WAR
SS	Derek Jeter	0.7		CF	Austin Jackson	2.4
CF	Curtis Granderson	5.2		3B	Wilson Betamit	1.3
2B	Robinson Cano	4.6		LF	Delmon Young	0.0
3B	Alex Rodriguez	2.7		1B	Miguel Cabrera	7.1
1B	Mark Teixeira	2.4		DH	Victor Martinez	2.9
RF	Nick Swisher	3.4		C	Alex Avila	5.4
C	Russell Martin	1.3		RF	Magglio Ordonez	-1.9
DH	Jorge Posada	-1.0		SS	Jhonny Peralta	4.4
LF	Brett Gardner	4.2		2B	Ramon Santiago	1.3

Bench: 

Yankees: Jesus Montero, Eric Chavez, Eduardo Nunez, Chris Dickerson, Andruw Jones

Tigers: Omir Santos, Brandon Inge, Andy Dirks, Don Kelly, Ryan Raburn

Starting Rotation:

Yankees			Tigers
C.C. Sabathia	6.9		Justin Verlander	8.6
Ivan Nova	3.5		Doug Fister	5.7
Freddy Garcia	3.4		Max Scherzer	2.4
			Rick Porcello	1.0

Bullpens: 

Yankees: Mariano Rivera, David Robertson, AJ Burnett, Rafael Soriano, Phil Hughes, Boone Logan, Luis Ayala, Cory Wade

Tigers: Jose Valverde, Al Albuquerque, Joaquin Benoit, Phil Coke, Dan Schlereth, Brad Penny, Ryan Perry

Breakdown: 

Justin Verlander vs. C.C. Sabathia, the matchup of arguably the two best pitchers in the American League this year (Jered Weaver says hi from the golf course), will only happen once, as the Yankees will counter their starting pitching depth disadvantage by simply using fewer starting pitchers. It's a good move, as Sabathia proved in '09 that he's able to pitch on short rest, and Nova will get two travel days between Game 2 and a potential Game 5. 

Still, I think Game 1 is more important for this series than it is for any of the others. Both teams have a pretty notable dropoff after their ace, and are both facing pretty good lineups - the Yankees lineup scored more runs and works pitchers harder, but the Tigers lineup's higher batting average is no fluke. There is some evidence that low batting average/high scoring teams have trouble replicating that in the playoffs, for one sort of obvious reason. Being patient and waiting for pitches to drive out of the park works great against #5 starters on bad teams. Teams with good enough pitching to make the playoffs though, are usually there because they do the best job keeping the ball in the park and not walking guys.

The Yankees lineup is generally better, top-to-bottom, but starting Posada over Montero is a mistake. Montero was a monster the last month, and Posada is old. The Yankees might as well put Reggie Jackson or Yogi Berra out there. Maggio Ordonez is in sort of the same position for the Tigers, but is only out there because Brennan Boesch is out. He'll be lifted for defense in the late innings.

Surprised by Ivan Nova's low WAR? The whole "he pitches in the AL East" thing may seem to indicate he should be rated more highly, but he somehow only pitched against the Red Sox twice, and obviously never pitched against the Yankees. The Jays, Rays and O's aren't exactly offensive juggernauts, and Nova really pitched well against those three, going 6-1 with a 2.79 ERA. After the Yankees, the next two highest scoring teams were Texas (2-1, 4.67 ERA, 9 BB, 6K) and these Tigers, who he didn't pitch against. Either the Yankees did a good job protecting him so that he'd build confidence, or he got exceptionally lucky with what days he happened to be pitching.

With that in mind, if this gets to a Game 5, he'll be pitching against Justin Verlander. It'll be in Yankee Stadium, which would be a boost for the Yankees, but how much. I think whoever wins Game 1 tonight will win the Series - if the Yankees take it tonight, I think it goes four, if the Tigers do, I think it'll take them all 5. 

Prediction: It seems like a bad year to pick against Justin Verlander. Tigers in 5.

Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Area Rays

Texas: 96-66. Scored 855 runs, Allowed 677 runs.

Tampa Bay: 91-71. Scored 707 runs, Allowed 614 runs

Initial irrelevant thought: I'm not bitter.

Expected lineup:

	Rays	WAR			Rangers	WAR
LF	Desmond Jennings	2.3		2B	Ian Kinsler	5.2
CF	B.J. Upton	3.8		SS	Elvis Andrus	3.5
3B	Evan Longoria	6.3		CF	Josh Hamilton	3.6
2B	Ben Zobrist	5.1		1B	Michael Young	2.4
DH	Johnny Damon	2.9		3B	Adrian Beltre	5.2
SS	Sean Rodriguez	2.4		C	Mike Napoli	5.5
1B	Casey Kotchman	2.9		RF	Nelson Cruz	1.4
RF	Matt Joynce	3.0		DH	Yorvit Torrealba	0.8
C	Kelly Shoppach	1.4		LF	Craig Gentry	1.4

Bench: 

Rays: John Jaso, Jose Lobaton, Reid Brignac, Elliot Johnson, Sam Fuld

Rangers: Esteban German, Matt Treanor, Mitch Moreland, David Murphy, Endy Chavez (Note - Murphy will be substituted for Gentry against right handed starters)

Starting Rotation: 

Rays			Rangers
Matt Moore	0.2		C.J. Wilson	5.0
James Shields	6.1		Derek Holland	2.7
Jeremy Hellickson	4.2		Colby Lewis	2.2
David Price	3.7		Matt Harrison	4.0

Bullpen:

Rays: Kyle Farnsworth, Juan Cruz, Wade Davis, Joel Peralta, Jake McGee, Brandon Gomes, J.P. Howell
Rangers: Neftali Feliz,  Alexi Ogando, Koji Uehara, Mike Gonzalez. Scott Feldman, Darren Oliver, Mike Adams

Breakdown:
First off - Matt Moore starting Game 1?? I know the Rays are willing to trust the kids, but that takes some intestinal fortitude on the part of Joe Maddon. The kid only has 9.1 career innings and one start! Initially I expected Moore to be on the roster in an attempt to replicate David Price's 2008, but wow.

The Rangers, as you can see score a LOT more runs than the Rays this year. For most of the year though, the Rays didn't have Desmond Jennings in the lineup, and Evan Longoria was hurt the first month, and ineffective up to the all-star break. After dominant second halves by both players, this lineup is NOT what it was in the first half. The middle of their lineup though still can't compete with the power Hamilton, Napoli and Beltre in there for Texas.

The Rangers will also have the advantage in the bullpen. Feliz was much less dominant than last year, but Alexi Ogando will move nicely into his 2010 role, and Scott Feldman will be a nice addition there as well. I found it odd that the Rays left Jeff Niemann off the first round roster. His stuff would seem to translate better to the pen than Wade Davis, and if the Moore experiment goes kaput, he's a better bet in long relief.

If this series goes all five games, I do not expect to see Matt Moore start (however, I've also learned that it's folly to try to predict the actions of Joe Maddon). James Shields, coming off a fantastic year will get the nod then.

On paper, the Rangers have the better team. However, the Rays play better defense, have the more daring manager, and are all too familiar with being the underdog.

Prediction: The Rays are intriguing, but the Rangers have too much firepower on offense. Rangers in 4.

Next Round, just for the record: Tigers in seven



Tables made with TABLEIZER: http://tableizer.journalistopia.com/
Statistics from Baseball-Reference: http://www.baseball-reference.com/

Bill Smith Gives Up on Delmon Young

Earlier this year, I discussed Bill Smith's trading record as Twins' GM. For those of you who'd like a quick summary, I was not impressed. The crux of his badness grew out of the Johan Santana deal. The deal was bad itself, but subsequent deals, each with diminishing return, are what turned the deal into such a debacle. It was like every bad deal necessitated a worse one. In the same article, I discussed the Garza/Bartlett for Young/Harris deal, stating that, up to the time, the Twins had lost that deal. However, unsatisfied with the claim that they would likely be the losers of it, Bill Smith apparently took it upon himself to make sure of it.

Let's get this out of the way. Delmon Young is not going to be the star we thought he was going to be when he was selected #1 overall in 2003. For all of his physical tools, he just hasn't put it together. In 2794 plate appearances, he currently has a .289/.323/.427 slash line, below average for a corner outfielder, particularly a mediocre defensive one. It should be noted, though, that he posted the bulk of that line when most young players are in college and the minor leagues - most guys don't have 1851 PA through their age 23 season. After having what appeared to be a breakout .298/.333/.493 campaign in 2010, Young was alternately ineffective and hurt in 2011, and woke up yesterday morning hitting .266/.305/.357 on the year. A couple hours later he was a Detroit Tiger, traded for minor league pitcher Cole Nelson and a player to be named later.

Let's simplify this. A former #1 draft pick has his first very good season at age 24. The next year he gets hurt and slumps, and is traded after four months to a team within the division for a minor league reliever with a 4.87 ERA in Single A. Doesn't that seem like trading a guy when his value is lowest? Giving up on him because he didn't turn into the player Justin Upton did?

A quick look at Cole Nelson reveals a local product (the Twins DO love those) from Edina, MN, who was drafted from of Auburn Tigers in the 10th round of the 2010 draft by the Detroit Tigers. He was assigned to single A Lakeland to begin 2011, where he struggled as a starter, going 4-10 with a 5.55 ERA in 84.1 innings, striking out 68 and walking 47. In early July he was moved to the bullpen, where he has pitched better - in 17.1 innings, he has a 2.60 ERA, 19 strikeouts and only 4 walks. So, while it appears Nelson might have found a home in the bullpen, it's hard to see anything in his 2011 performance record that jumps out and says he's an acceptable return for a major leaguer. Time will tell, I suppose, but again, THAT'S Delmon Young's value right now? If there's so little market for him, why did Smith feel the need to pull the trigger?

Ah, but getting minimum value for players seems to be Smith's specialty. He got Jim Hoey for J.J. Hardy, who was the main player in return for Carlos Gomez, who was the main player in return for Johan Santana. Like I said in May, THAT, and not the much-discussed Mauer/Morneau struggles, is the main reason why the Twins stink.

Let's make this clear. I'm not saying they shouldn't have traded Young just because he was all they had to show for Matt Garza. That's over and done with, and you can't handicap yourself by making dumb moves. I'm also not saying they should have made Young untouchable, hoping that he would turn into a superstar that you can build a team around, because he's not going to. What I'm saying is that Smith doesn't seem to comprehend the notion of selling while the price is high and buying while the price is low. He bought when Young was coming off of a season when he finished 2nd for Rookie of the Year as a 21 year old. He held when Young had a breakout 2010 campaign where he compiled 68 extra base hits, and was second in the AL with 46 doubles. He sold when Young was in the middle of an injury plagued campaign where the team had fallen apart around him. Trading Young means that Smith is either panicky, foolish, or sees a lot more value in Cole Nelson than everyone else does.

Other GM's like Ed Wade and Jim Hendry have caught a lot more flak this year than Smith. While it's hard to defend the work of either of them (particularly Wade, who has been atrocious), the Minnesota Twins are the biggest disappointments of the 2011 season. Bill Smith's inability to get value in trades in the past is a big reason for that, and the Delmon Young deal indicates that he hasn't learned his lesson.