WEEI.com's Alex Speier reports the Red Sox have sent left-handed pitcher Hunter Cervenka to the Chicago Cubs.
Continue to SoxProspects.com to read the rest of this article.
Showing posts with label Chicago Cubs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Chicago Cubs. Show all posts
Tuesday, May 15, 2012
Monday, October 24, 2011
No Theo, Thank You
No snark. I mean that.
You likely have heard by now that Theo Epstein has taken a job with the Chicago Cubs. Upon his departure, he took out a full page ad in the Boston Globe, thanking "Red Sox Nation."
No need to thank us, Theo. We've been harder on you than you've deserved, particularly in the last 18 months. Last year's team wasn't that great, and this year they sort of fell apart, so I suppose that's expected. Still, the narrative that Theo was overrated and hadn't done a good job seemed a little silly. After all, he was the GM for two World Series Champions in Boston.
Rewind for a second. It's fall 2002, Theo has just been hired. You visit the oracle, and he tells you that Theo will win two World Series, but that when he leaves in 2011, people will be calling him an overrated failure. What would your response be to that oracle? Mine would be "wow, Red Sox fans are really the miserable jerks that the world thinks we are, huh?"
First, the myth that Dan Duquette really built the 2004 championship team, and Epstein just skated in on Theo's work. After all, Theo is the one who had brought in star players Manny Ramirez and Pedro Martinez. Anyone who has been following the Red Sox for any length of time knows that having stars has never been the problem. It's been filling out the roster sensibly, getting production from second tier guys. Those mid-level pickups that other teams always seem to find, but Boston never does. Right? Well, let's check out The Greatest Game in Red Sox History (Game 4 of the 2004 ALCS).
For those of you who don't remember (likely anyone who is under the age of 10, because if you're older than that and don't remember that game, you're not reading this blog right now), let's give a quick reminder. Against the greatest closer in history, controversial Theo Epstein acquisition Kevin Millar walks to lead off the 9th inning. Theo Epstein acquisition Dave Roberts pinch runs for Millar, and steals second base. Theo Epstein acquisition Bill Mueller then hits a single to right field, scoring Roberts. Theo Epstein acquisition Keith Foulke pitches 2.2 scoreless innings out of the bullpen. Finally, in the bottom of the 11th, Theo Epstein acquision David Ortiz hits a game winning home run.
That was not a Dan Duquette team. Theo Epstein had built an offense of patient, professional hitters. He rebuilt a bullpen that had significant trouble in the first half of 2003. Top put them over the top, he acquired a top starter in Curt Schilling to take some of the workload off of the bullpen, and hired a manger in Terry Francona whose temperament was just right for dealing with that group.
Was the 2011 team overpaid and underachieving? Of course. That collapse was everyone's fault, from the players to the manager to the GM to the ownership. The lack of pitching that killed them at the end of the season didn't sneak up on them - they'd been pitching badly all season, and expecting to hit so much to overcome that was probably a tad myopic. He went out and got injury-plagued Erik Bedard, who turned out to get injured. They didn't give Alfredo Aceves a chance to start (and the press buried David Ortiz for stating the obvious regarding it), and he ended up being second on the staff in September innings anyway.
You know what though? The Red Sox scored the most runs in the major leagues in 2011. For all the mistakes that he made, Theo Epstein STILL had built the dominant lineup in baseball. He's inheriting a bigger challenge with the Cubs, of course. Theo DID have the cornerstone of a franchise in place when he came aboard in Boston, something he doesn't have the benefit of in Chicago, an organization that needs to be completely rebuilt from top to bottom. It's a bigger challenge. I wish him luck.
In the meantime though, he deserves our thanks. He set out to bring Red Sox fans a championship. He won us two. That's how he should be remembered.
You likely have heard by now that Theo Epstein has taken a job with the Chicago Cubs. Upon his departure, he took out a full page ad in the Boston Globe, thanking "Red Sox Nation."
No need to thank us, Theo. We've been harder on you than you've deserved, particularly in the last 18 months. Last year's team wasn't that great, and this year they sort of fell apart, so I suppose that's expected. Still, the narrative that Theo was overrated and hadn't done a good job seemed a little silly. After all, he was the GM for two World Series Champions in Boston.
Rewind for a second. It's fall 2002, Theo has just been hired. You visit the oracle, and he tells you that Theo will win two World Series, but that when he leaves in 2011, people will be calling him an overrated failure. What would your response be to that oracle? Mine would be "wow, Red Sox fans are really the miserable jerks that the world thinks we are, huh?"
First, the myth that Dan Duquette really built the 2004 championship team, and Epstein just skated in on Theo's work. After all, Theo is the one who had brought in star players Manny Ramirez and Pedro Martinez. Anyone who has been following the Red Sox for any length of time knows that having stars has never been the problem. It's been filling out the roster sensibly, getting production from second tier guys. Those mid-level pickups that other teams always seem to find, but Boston never does. Right? Well, let's check out The Greatest Game in Red Sox History (Game 4 of the 2004 ALCS).
For those of you who don't remember (likely anyone who is under the age of 10, because if you're older than that and don't remember that game, you're not reading this blog right now), let's give a quick reminder. Against the greatest closer in history, controversial Theo Epstein acquisition Kevin Millar walks to lead off the 9th inning. Theo Epstein acquisition Dave Roberts pinch runs for Millar, and steals second base. Theo Epstein acquisition Bill Mueller then hits a single to right field, scoring Roberts. Theo Epstein acquisition Keith Foulke pitches 2.2 scoreless innings out of the bullpen. Finally, in the bottom of the 11th, Theo Epstein acquision David Ortiz hits a game winning home run.
That was not a Dan Duquette team. Theo Epstein had built an offense of patient, professional hitters. He rebuilt a bullpen that had significant trouble in the first half of 2003. Top put them over the top, he acquired a top starter in Curt Schilling to take some of the workload off of the bullpen, and hired a manger in Terry Francona whose temperament was just right for dealing with that group.
Was the 2011 team overpaid and underachieving? Of course. That collapse was everyone's fault, from the players to the manager to the GM to the ownership. The lack of pitching that killed them at the end of the season didn't sneak up on them - they'd been pitching badly all season, and expecting to hit so much to overcome that was probably a tad myopic. He went out and got injury-plagued Erik Bedard, who turned out to get injured. They didn't give Alfredo Aceves a chance to start (and the press buried David Ortiz for stating the obvious regarding it), and he ended up being second on the staff in September innings anyway.
You know what though? The Red Sox scored the most runs in the major leagues in 2011. For all the mistakes that he made, Theo Epstein STILL had built the dominant lineup in baseball. He's inheriting a bigger challenge with the Cubs, of course. Theo DID have the cornerstone of a franchise in place when he came aboard in Boston, something he doesn't have the benefit of in Chicago, an organization that needs to be completely rebuilt from top to bottom. It's a bigger challenge. I wish him luck.
In the meantime though, he deserves our thanks. He set out to bring Red Sox fans a championship. He won us two. That's how he should be remembered.
Thursday, December 14, 2006
Moves you may have missed. Or not cared about.
You folks have probably read all that there is to read on Alfonso Soriano and Daisuke Matsuzaka, so there probably isn’t all that much more I can add to the discussion. There have been some lesser moves that may make a difference in 2007. And moves that may not.
Normally, it’s a good idea to pick up a starting pitcher in exchange for a reliever. This is one of those exceptions, and John Schuerholz may have quietly picked up one of the biggest steals of the offseason. Three years removed from arm surgery, Soriano threw 60 innings in relief for
If the Mariners did feel Soriano was a risk, perhaps it would’ve made sense to try to acquire an innings eater type, who could rack up a solid season in Safeco Field. However, Ramirez is likely a bigger injury risk than Soriano, while not being nearly as good a pitcher. Ramirez has failed to reach 80 innings in two of the last three seasons with a variety of arm troubles. The season he stayed healthy, he had a 4.63 ERA in 202 innings, with only 80 strikeouts, 67 walks, and 31 homers allowed. Safeco will help depress that homer number, but in the more patient American League, teams like the A’s and Rangers who he will see several times will take advantage of his inabilility to put people away. Those poor K/BB numbers in the NL are likely to translate even worse into the
So, while both players may offer the same injury risk, Soriano offers the reward of being an elite closer, while Ramirez, at best, isn’t likely to replace the production of Gil Meche. Another poor move in what has been a pretty awful tenure by Mariners GM Bill Bavasi.
Royals sign pitcher Gil Meche for 5 years, $55M.
Almost every offseason, a really really bad team signs a player who isn’t good to a huge contract, and there is a glut of stories praising them for being willing to show fans they care by being willing to spend money. It’s all a crock. Fans don’t really care, during the season, whether or not their team has spent money. They care whether or not their team is winning.
Signing Gil Meche does not show a commitment to winning. It shows a commitment to spending money. In four years since his return from injury, Meche has not had a park-adjusted ERA above league average even once. On the ERA+ scare, where 100 is average, he’s scored a 97, 86, 85 and 97. Meche turned 28 in September, and pitchers suddenly figuring it out at his age is exceedingly rare, unless they’re put with a Leo Mazzone or Ray Miller level pitching coach. Meche is often compared to Jason Schmidt, who DID figure it out at roughly Meche’s age, so I suppose there is hope, but the comparison with Schmidt againt the comparison with the hundreds of similar pitchers who didn’t figure it out at the same time is a pretty strong weight to the negative. The silver lining is the huge jump in his strikeout rate this year, from 5.2 per 9 IP in 2005 to 7.5 per 9 in 2006. If his ERA can begin to follow that improvement, Meche may make the jump to slightly above average pitcher, but the Royals are betting against huge odds that Meche will make such a significant improvement.
Of course, a slightly below average starter is a HUGE improvement for the Royals, whose rotation last year was somewhere in the neighborhood of abysmal. So, the thinking goes, if they have the money, why not spend it to improve their team? Which may be fine, but why commit to five years? If the Royals had signed Meche for a two-year commitment on the chance he breaks out, it wouldn’t be a big deal, as they wouldn’t be tying up funds for the future. But as it is, if Meche doesn’t make that leap, don’t you think they’d want that money to give an extension to Alex Gordon, baseball’s #1 prospect, if Gordon is anything close to the player he looks like? The problem isn’t the $11M on Meche in 2007, as maybe they don’t have any better use for that money. The problem is that $11M in 2010 and 2011, when they should be hoping to be competitive.
Cubs sign Jason Marquis to a 3 year, $21M deal.
Now, this is a deal that looks more reasonable on the surface, but actually may be just as bad as the Meche deal. According to baseball-reference.com, Meche and Marquis are actually each others most comparable players, and both are the same age (Marquis is actually a month older.) The problem is that Marquis is clearly going in the wrong direction. While there are some signs with Meche to at least consider him worth betting on, In the last three years, Marquis has gone into a tailspin. His ERA has gone 3.71, 4.13, 6.02. His K/9IP has gone down: 6.2, 4.3, 4.4. His K/BB have gone down: 1.97, 1.44, 1.28. And his HR/9IP have gone up: 1.2, 1.3, 1.6.
Marquis is heading backwards in a hurry, and the fact that he’s going to a much worse pitchers park could make things ugly. I’m talking mid 7’s ERA ugly. This is all made worse by the fact that Marquis apparently isn’t all that nice a guy. He badmouthed Mazzone on his way out the door in Atlanta, got progressively worse every season under Duncan, and moaned about not being on the playoff roster for the Cardinals, despite the fact that one of the biggest reasons they won the World Series was the decision not let Jason Marquis pitch in the playoffs. Forget the fact that $7M isn’t all that much money in today’s market. All things considered, I’d take a chance with just about any Triple A journeyman over Marquis. He’s the Cubs headache now.
Monday, March 27, 2006
Friday, November 18, 2005
Transaction notes
The baseball offseason is starting to get into full swing, with some lower tier moves going on. Let's run through a few of this weeks.
The Chicago Cubs signed relief pitcher Scott Eyre to a reported 3-year, $11 million contract.
This comes two weeks after signing Ryan Dempster to a 3-year, $15 million contract. Ouch.
Let me repeat that. The Chicago Cubs are going to pay Scott Eyre and Ryan Dempster over $8 million next year, and $26 million for the next three years.
Simply. Amazing.
Ryan Dempster will be 29 next year, has reasonably good K/BB numbers for his career, and is coming off two consecutive above average seasons. Much of that 4.83 career ERA was put up as a starter for Florida and Cincinnati, so maybe he's found a home in the bullpen. But at $5 million, that's an awful steep price for 70 or so slightly above average innings. He's a good pitcher, but there are better ways to spend the money. (For example, buying Derrek Lee 5 million Junior Cheeseburgers at Wendy's).
Sadly, none of that ringing endorsement should be echoed for Eyre. He's the classic "lefty-one-out-guy." He's going to be 34 early next year and has a 4.52 career ERA. Eyre has been a solid, if unspectacular, pitcher for the Giants the last four years, but he's not a guy you go building a staff around. He's a last piece of a puzzle, rather than the first, and the kind of player that is always floating around at looking for a spring-training invite.
The Cubs are apparently very high on Rafael Furcal. Without discussing the debatable merits of Rafael Furcal as a franchise player, if the Cubs believe he is, shouldn't he be their first priority? They've now spent $8 million on replaceable parts. If a bidding war starts up for Furcal, wouldn't they rather have the extra couple million to play with to make sure they get their top guy, then worry about filling the bullpen? It's a backwards way to build a team, and it's a good way to find yourself competing with Pittsburgh for fifth place rather than St. Louis for first.
The New York Yankees signed OF Hideki Matsui to a four year contract, reportedly worth $52 million.
Matsui was considered a potential top ten free agent, but most circles agreed that a deal would be worked out. The negotiations were a bit different because Matsui had a clause in his contract that he'd be non-tendered if he wasn't signed to an extension by November 15, and therefore unable to negotiate with the Yankees until next May.
Yes, the Yankees overpaid for Matsui, but the rationale is that they can afford to pay more for their wins than other teams. Which means the issue becomes whether Matsui is going to actually bring them very many wins. He's not a great hitter, but he is a good one, and batting behind guys that get on base will get him his 100 RBI. He seems reasonably athletic and well-conditioned, which tends to lead to aging well, and he has a solid batting eye, though it's something to watch for, as he fell to 56 unintentional walks this past season, down from 86 in 2004. He doesn't strike me as the kind of player who is just going to fall off the table, so chances are he'll still be a productive player in 2009.
Reportedly, he wants to play centerfield, saying he feels more comfortable out there. He rated as an average defensive leftfielder, which comes with the asterisk that, with the sluggers teams put out in leftfield, being average doesn't take very much. He doesn't have great speed, a very good arm, he doesn't take great routes to balls-- so it's easy to understand why the Yankees would consider putting him in centerfield. The Yankees outfield defense certainly hurt them throughout the season last year, and it was made crystal clear in Game 5 of the ALDS against the Angels. With Matsui in leftfield, his flaws will remain hidden. In centerfield, there's a good chance of more of the same-- a lot of doubles in the rightcenterfield gap, and people wondering why their pitchers are putting up ERA's in the 4's and 5's.
Reports out seem to have the Yankees looking at two options for next season. The first is signing Brian Giles, and moving Matsui to center. Giles is a world class hitter, and a solid defensive player. The other option they've discussed is leaving Matsui in left, and having Bubba Crosby play center. Yep, that was the sound of baseball fans around the country chuckling at you. I'm not sure if it's blind faith or total arrogance that would make the Yankee front office think Crosby, who will be 30 next August and has a career OPS of .554, and a career VORP of -5, is a capable every day major leaguer, but either way, it's the type of move that will have them scouting the waiver-wire for someone who can deliver an OPS over .600 by early May.
Moves like that are typical of the way the Yankees have operated in recent years--take note of your star players, and figure that anyone can settle in to the second tier roles-- and are a major reason why they've watched other teams celebrating to end their season the last five years. During their run from 1996 to 2000, the Yankees had star players, but they also won because they had second tier players like Scott Brosius and Chad Curtis playing, rather than guys who would struggle to hit .200 over a major league season, like Crosby or Enrique Wilson. I'm reminded of the offseason of the A-Rod deal. When Aaron Boone went down with his knee injury, they traded for Mike Lamb, now of the Houston Astros. When the A-Rod trade went through, they simply released Lamb. Now, Lamb isn't going to be a guy to carry you to the World Series, but he is a versatile, serviceable player, who certainly helped the Houston Astros in their march to the World Series.
The point here is that there are a lot of players between the quality of Brian Giles and Bubba Crosby who are available. If they are unable to sign Giles for whatever reason, they should take a cue from what they'd have done only seven or eight years ago, and sign one of those in between players. Either that, or they should be prepared to watch the Cardinals or Indians or Athletics popping the cork next October.
The Chicago Cubs signed relief pitcher Scott Eyre to a reported 3-year, $11 million contract.
This comes two weeks after signing Ryan Dempster to a 3-year, $15 million contract. Ouch.
Let me repeat that. The Chicago Cubs are going to pay Scott Eyre and Ryan Dempster over $8 million next year, and $26 million for the next three years.
Simply. Amazing.
Ryan Dempster will be 29 next year, has reasonably good K/BB numbers for his career, and is coming off two consecutive above average seasons. Much of that 4.83 career ERA was put up as a starter for Florida and Cincinnati, so maybe he's found a home in the bullpen. But at $5 million, that's an awful steep price for 70 or so slightly above average innings. He's a good pitcher, but there are better ways to spend the money. (For example, buying Derrek Lee 5 million Junior Cheeseburgers at Wendy's).
Sadly, none of that ringing endorsement should be echoed for Eyre. He's the classic "lefty-one-out-guy." He's going to be 34 early next year and has a 4.52 career ERA. Eyre has been a solid, if unspectacular, pitcher for the Giants the last four years, but he's not a guy you go building a staff around. He's a last piece of a puzzle, rather than the first, and the kind of player that is always floating around at looking for a spring-training invite.
The Cubs are apparently very high on Rafael Furcal. Without discussing the debatable merits of Rafael Furcal as a franchise player, if the Cubs believe he is, shouldn't he be their first priority? They've now spent $8 million on replaceable parts. If a bidding war starts up for Furcal, wouldn't they rather have the extra couple million to play with to make sure they get their top guy, then worry about filling the bullpen? It's a backwards way to build a team, and it's a good way to find yourself competing with Pittsburgh for fifth place rather than St. Louis for first.
The New York Yankees signed OF Hideki Matsui to a four year contract, reportedly worth $52 million.
Matsui was considered a potential top ten free agent, but most circles agreed that a deal would be worked out. The negotiations were a bit different because Matsui had a clause in his contract that he'd be non-tendered if he wasn't signed to an extension by November 15, and therefore unable to negotiate with the Yankees until next May.
Yes, the Yankees overpaid for Matsui, but the rationale is that they can afford to pay more for their wins than other teams. Which means the issue becomes whether Matsui is going to actually bring them very many wins. He's not a great hitter, but he is a good one, and batting behind guys that get on base will get him his 100 RBI. He seems reasonably athletic and well-conditioned, which tends to lead to aging well, and he has a solid batting eye, though it's something to watch for, as he fell to 56 unintentional walks this past season, down from 86 in 2004. He doesn't strike me as the kind of player who is just going to fall off the table, so chances are he'll still be a productive player in 2009.
Reportedly, he wants to play centerfield, saying he feels more comfortable out there. He rated as an average defensive leftfielder, which comes with the asterisk that, with the sluggers teams put out in leftfield, being average doesn't take very much. He doesn't have great speed, a very good arm, he doesn't take great routes to balls-- so it's easy to understand why the Yankees would consider putting him in centerfield. The Yankees outfield defense certainly hurt them throughout the season last year, and it was made crystal clear in Game 5 of the ALDS against the Angels. With Matsui in leftfield, his flaws will remain hidden. In centerfield, there's a good chance of more of the same-- a lot of doubles in the rightcenterfield gap, and people wondering why their pitchers are putting up ERA's in the 4's and 5's.
Reports out seem to have the Yankees looking at two options for next season. The first is signing Brian Giles, and moving Matsui to center. Giles is a world class hitter, and a solid defensive player. The other option they've discussed is leaving Matsui in left, and having Bubba Crosby play center. Yep, that was the sound of baseball fans around the country chuckling at you. I'm not sure if it's blind faith or total arrogance that would make the Yankee front office think Crosby, who will be 30 next August and has a career OPS of .554, and a career VORP of -5, is a capable every day major leaguer, but either way, it's the type of move that will have them scouting the waiver-wire for someone who can deliver an OPS over .600 by early May.
Moves like that are typical of the way the Yankees have operated in recent years--take note of your star players, and figure that anyone can settle in to the second tier roles-- and are a major reason why they've watched other teams celebrating to end their season the last five years. During their run from 1996 to 2000, the Yankees had star players, but they also won because they had second tier players like Scott Brosius and Chad Curtis playing, rather than guys who would struggle to hit .200 over a major league season, like Crosby or Enrique Wilson. I'm reminded of the offseason of the A-Rod deal. When Aaron Boone went down with his knee injury, they traded for Mike Lamb, now of the Houston Astros. When the A-Rod trade went through, they simply released Lamb. Now, Lamb isn't going to be a guy to carry you to the World Series, but he is a versatile, serviceable player, who certainly helped the Houston Astros in their march to the World Series.
The point here is that there are a lot of players between the quality of Brian Giles and Bubba Crosby who are available. If they are unable to sign Giles for whatever reason, they should take a cue from what they'd have done only seven or eight years ago, and sign one of those in between players. Either that, or they should be prepared to watch the Cardinals or Indians or Athletics popping the cork next October.
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