Does Jeff Francis fit with Cincinnati?

On the surface, the Reds signing of Jeff Francis to a minor-league contract seems like no-news news. However, I think he has a chance to play an important role on a team that should probably be considered the favorite in the National League Central.

Ok. A pitcher who went 6-16 with a 4.82 ERA and only 4.5 K/9 isn't generally much in demand, and Francis is several years and a major injury removed from his time as a promising young pitcher. The ninth pick in the 2002 draft, Francis rose quickly through the Colorado Rockies organization. Before the 2005 season, Baseball America ranked him the #23 prospect in baseball. In 2006 and 2007, he went 30-20. His ERA was 4.19, a number that might otherwise be mediocre but in Coors Field was a 116 ERA+. In 2007, he struck out 165 in 215.1 innings, and helped the Rockies reach their first World Series. Going into 2008, Francis's age-27 season, things looked good for both player and team.

Of course, these things don't always work out - Francis was experiencing shoulder soreness that caused him to be ineffective in 2008. The injury was determined to be an injured tendon in his biceps, and he was shut down after 21 starts. He attempted to rehab, but to no avail, and opted for shoulder surgery in February 2009, which shut him down for the next 15 months. Upon his return to the Rockies in May 2010, his fastball's velocity had lost about 4 mph, and he was generally ineffective all season. The Rockies cut ties with their former top prospect and Francis signed a one-year contract with the traditionally bottom-feeding Kansas City Royals for 2011.

In 2011, Francis wasn't especially good, but there are some positives, and some reason to think he could be a good signing for the Reds. First of all, while his 4.82 ERA is unsightly, his 4.10 FIP and 4.23 xFIP show that his peripherals are sometimes better than results. This is the second consecutive year Francis has underperformed what his statistics would predict, so it's important to determine whether Francis has been unlucky and should be expected to improve, or if he's just an AJ Burnett-corollary type, who consistently underachieves. That's not easy to do.

While his early-career ERA was generally in line with his FIP and other predictors, Francis is a totally different pitcher now, with a fastball that tops out at about 85. To compensate for his loss in velocity and declining strikeout rate, Francis has thrown more ground balls the last two seasons. Unfortunatly, he's been doing that in front of some pretty poor defenses - the Royals were 24th in baseball with a defensive efficiency(DE) of .701, and Francis ended up with a .316 BABIP. The Cincinnati Reds were 3rd in baseball and best in the National League with a .718 DE. That difference makes an especially big difference to a pitcher like Francis, who doesn't strike many batters out.

On the other hand, in his second year back from his injury, Francis's fastball actually lost velocity from 2010. Also, after an extremely effective July where he did everything well, he pitched very poorly the rest of the year. Whether this was fatigue or simply a regression to his actual ability remains to be answered. It's important to keep in mind, though, that he was at 135 IP by the end of July - he last reached that number in 2008, and he last reached it while healthy in 2007. If this was a case of fatigue, it was certainly understandable.

Something else to note - Francis allowed home runs on only 8.5% of his fly balls last year, despite a relatively low amount of infield flies, as Ryan Campbell of FanGraphs told us last week. That's not a good sign going into the Great American Ballpark, one of the best home run parks in baseball.

Even so, slightly worse luck on keeping fly balls in the park would be evened out by the fact playing in front of Cincinnati's defense will mean less people  are on base when those home runs are hit. He also will be facing pitchers instead of designated hitters this year, so if his durability and velocity come back to his previous numbers a bit more, he should be able to post a strikeout rate in the mid-5's, a number that should help bring keep his ERA in the low 4's.

Does that fit with Cincinnati? Sure, "you can never have enough pitching" as the old saying goes. Still, the Reds have Mat Latos and Johnny Cueto entrenched, can probably expect some sort of revival from the previously consistent Bronson Arroyo, and after that have Homer Bailey, Mike Leake and Aroldis Chapman. Of those three, Leake has more than earned the right to start. He wasn't as hyped as the other two, but as a first round draft pick who went straight to the majors, improved in every conceivable way in 2011, and is still only 24, why wouldn't they just pen him into the rotation?

Chapman, by contrast, has only made three professional starts, all in the minor leagues. The Reds say they are committed to him as a starter, and with his talent, they should be. Relievers are always available - the Reds owe it to themselves to give someone with Chapman's upside a chance to be as valuable as possible. What's the harm of letting him start the year at Triple-A though? With six other established starters in a weak division, the Reds are already poised to compete. No reason to throw Chapman into the fray before he's ready and risk both his confidence and their chances at the division.

That's where Francis fits in. Appearing as the 7th starter at first glance, he's more MLB-ready than Chapman. Quick question - do you expect all five of those starters, particularly Cueto and Bailey, to go the entire season without injury? That's unrealistic of any staff, even one comprised entirely of starters with a good health history. Francis could have significant value as a "swingman" type, starting out as a left-handed long reliever who is ready to move into the rotation if (when) one of the starters gets hurt. Much better him than trying to coordinate calling up Chapman the first time an injury strikes.

For $1.5 million for a pitcher with Francis's experience and likelihood of success, that seems like a sensible investment for the Reds.

Twins and Matt Maloney are a Good Match

I've used a fair amount of this space to criticize Minnesota Twins GM Bill Smith. In the interests of fairness, I must say that his early offseason waiver acquisition of left-handed pitcher Matt Maloney seems like a sensible one. I don't think it's the kind of move that's going to vault the Twins back into contention on its own, but I do think it's the sort of low-level signing that mid-market teams need to be on the lookout for. Maloney and the Twins seem specifically to be a good pairing.

When you think of the prototypical Minnesota Twins starting pitcher over the last 15 years, what comes to mind? For me, it's a bunch of guys with middling stuff who succeed by pounding the strike zone. Sure, there were the three exceptional Johan Santana years from 2004 to 2006, where he did everything he's supposed to. But in general, when I think of Twins pitching, it's more in the Brad Radke or Kevin Slowey mode.

The concept of Twins starting pitchers as strike throwers is not a figment of our imaginations. In 2011, Twins pitchers finished with the sixth fewest walks in the American League. However, in the ten years previous, they finished third in walks one time (2003), second three times (2001, 2002 and 2007), and first the other SIX times. From 2004 until 2010, they had the fewest walks in the American League every year except one. In 2010, they only walked 383 batters all season, 69 fewer than the Seattle Mariners, who finished second. That number shot up to 480 in 2011, an increase of .6 every nine innings. The demise of the pinpoint control that was so long the standard in Minnesota didn't get talked about much simply because it came in a season where so many other things went wrong. If Twins had done everything else they'd done well in 2010, maybe we'd have been hearing a bunch of "why have Twins pitchers stopped throwing so many strikes" stories. 

If throwing strikes is the the qualification, Maloney is hired. In 80 major league innings, he has walked only 17 batters. In 516 Triple-A innings going back to 2007, he has only 108 walks. He fits in perfectly with the Twins mantra of pounding the strike zone, making batters earn their way onto first base.

Now, maybe some Cincinnati Reds fan is reading this, shaking his head and saying "wait a second - there's a lot more to pitching than throwing strikes. I've seen Matt Maloney enough over the past three years, and he stinks!" 

Those are both good points. There is obviously a lot more to pitching than simply not walking people. Josh Tomlin had the lowest walk rate in the American League this year, and he was only able to translate that into a mediocre 4.25 ERA. Meanwhile, Gio Gonzalez was walking men at almost four times Tomlin's rate, and ended up with a 3.12 ERA. This is appropriate to Maloney who has a 5.40 ERA at the major league level, despite a BB/9 rate of under 2.0. Why is his ERA so high? Because he has allowed more home runs than walks - 18 in those 80 innings. Oof. 

So if Maloney gives up so many home runs, why would the Twins want him? There are two possible reasons. The first is that he Twins may believe that his high home run rate so far is a fluke, based in part on a disastrous 1.2 inning relief appearance against the Diamondbacks where he allowed three home runs. The second is that the Twins may be so desperate for pitching that they're willing to sign anyone who proves himself capable of throwing a baseball 60 feet, 6 inches. There is some truth, I think, to both of these suggestions.

Maloney's minor league home run rates are totally within the realm of acceptability. 48 home runs in those 516 Triple-A innings shows that he's been keeping the ball in the park at that level. There is some evidence that minor league hitters don't deal well with pitchers who change speeds and mix pitches well--which is why they're in the minor leagues. This tends to inflate the minor league numbers of some junkballers. So, perhaps Maloney is in the Lenny Dinardo category. Let's be fair, though - even Dinardo got 257 major league innings to prove he didn't have major league stuff. Often, those types of pitchers will see a jump in their walk rate once reaching the majors, which Maloney has not.

Maloney's short 2011 stint has some ugly numbers, based on some unsustainably unlucky rate states. A .408 BABIP? Home runs allowed on 22.6% of fly balls?? I don't think there are home runs on 22.6% of fly balls in the home run derby. Regression to the mean and a move from Great American Ballpark to the more pitcher-friendly Target Field will bring that down significantly. Two of the top three in HR/FB% among 100 pitchers were Edinson Volquez and Bronson Arroyo - the ball was flying out of that place last year. Maybe Maloney's stuff makes him more prone to a high percentage of fly balls leaving the yard, but 12%-15% is probably the peak.

Matt Maloney pitching for Louisville against the Syracuse Chiefs.

With a K/BB ratio that's remained over 3.0 in the majors, (even during his crummy 2011 stint), ball in play that should improve by accident and a more friendly ballpark, what should we look for from Maloney in a Twins uniform? He has a 3.57 Triple-A ERA, and a 4.57 major league xFIP, so far. I think that 4.50 ERA range is a good estimate. That's not going to win him the Cy Young Award, but it would make him an improvement over several of the guys the Twins went through in 2011. 

Quick recommendation to the Twins management (who I assume will never see this) - PLEASE resist the urge to make Maloney a short/one-out reliever. His lack of a fastball has led to a total lack of any platoon advantage. There's nothing in his profile that suggests he'd be more successful out of the bullpen. If he's not in the starting rotation, he should either be a traditional "long reliever," or hanging out as insurance in Triple-A Rochester, where he can enjoy a DiBella's Sub while waiting for the call. Matt, I recommend the Dagwood. 

While Maloney isn't going to be any kind of franchise savior, I think Bill Smith has made a good move for a useful pitcher who can provide some depth and innings at somewhere slightly above replacement level. After an ugly 2011, the Twins need that.

Photo credit: "Matt Maloney pitching in Syracuse, NY" by BubbaFan, uploaded from http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3AMatt_Maloney_2009.jpg

Dontrelle Willis is Back

Yes, I know he's been back in the majors for a month, and generally has pitched well. Last night though, we got the first indication that Dontrelle Willis isn't just back as a major league pitcher, but might be back as an very good one. Despite not getting the win, Willis game up only 3 runs in 8 innings, striking out 10 and walking only 1. It was the first time he'd pitched 8 full innings since September 25th, 2007.

In my mind, it doesn't seem like the presence of "Dontrelle Willis, formidable major league starting pitcher" was that long ago, but the last time Willis had a sub 5.00 ERA was 2006, when he was only 24 years old. That was his fourth season, and up to that point, he has a 58-39 record, with a 3.44 ERA. A 3.44 then is even more impressive than it is now, good for an ERA+ of 121. In 817 innings, he had struck out 611 and walked 257, and allowed only 65 home runs.

Those aren't quite elite numbers, but Willis was more than the numbers. He was a charismatic guy, a great interview, and had probably the most fun delivery to watch in the game. He was also one of the best hitting pitchers in the game. All in all, he might not have been the #1 pitcher you'd pick to start your team around, but if you were buying a ticket for one night? You wanted to see Dontrelle Willis.

The common narrative seems to have become that Willis fell apart when he was traded to the American League, but that's really totally true. I mean, he was really, really terrible for the Tigers, but it was 2007, his last year with the Marlins, that he began his steep decline. His walk rate grew, his strikeout rate fell, and his home runs allowed doubled. In doing so, he posted a 5.17 ERA, leading the NL in earned runs allowed. After that season, he was dealt to the Tigers, with Miguel Cabrera, for top prospects Andrew Miller and Cameron Maybin.

In the American League, Willis was lost. In 101 innings, he posted a 6.85 ERA, walking 92 and striking out 68. It was said by many that he had "Steve Blass disease," the affliction which prevents previously good pitchers from being able to throw strikes. However, while Blass disease is a mental tic, others thought Willis's problems were more of the mechanical nature. With a windup that included so many moving parts, this certainly sounded like a possibility. It led the Tigers to hold onto Willis for two and a half years, before they finally lost their patience and traded him for journeyman starter Billy Buckner on June 1, 2010. After a successful debut with the Diamondbacks (6 shutout innings, though he walked 4), things went downhill quickly there as well. After only 22.1 innings pitched, Willis had given up 17 runs, striking out only 14 while walking 27. Only July 6th, Willis was released. He was signed to minor league deal with the Giants, but never sniffed the majors.

What made his struggles so disappointing wasn't just that he was pitching so poorly, but that he was working so hard to get through it, to no avail. Upon Willis being designated for assignment by the Tigers (before the trade was worked out), manager Jim Leyland said "I just applaud his efforts. It's been a long road back. The consistency just wasn't there. The uncertainty just ran out. He's been a great teammate. It's sad, really. I know how hard he worked. It just didn't work out.”

Knowing he would need to prove himself back in the minors, Willis signed a minor league contract with the Reds before the 2011 season. Accepting assignment to Louisville, Willis continued to work hard. This time though, for the first time in half a decade, the hard work appeared to be paying off, giving the Reds notice. The 5-2 record, 2.63 ERA, 67 strikeouts and only 5 home runs allowed in 75.1 innings pitched were nice, but what led them to believe he was ready to come back to the majors was the fact that he'd walked only 20 batters in that time.

On July 10th, Willis was recalled by Cincinnati to replace the struggling Edinson Volquez. He gave them 6 solid innings, giving up only two runs, leaving the game leading 3-2. Unfortunately, the Reds bullpen could not hold on, but the return of Willis was a great sight for any baseball fan. In his first five starts, Willis pitched fairly effectively, with a 3.41 ERA in 29 innings. His 17 strikeout to 11 walk ratio wasn't exactly setting the world afire, but it's certainly within the range of acceptability.

Last nights performance against the Rockies brought Willis's comeback to another level. As mentioned above, it was the first time he'd completed 8 innings since September 25, 2007. It was his first 10 strikeout game since August 14th of that same year. It was his highest game score since that September 25th start, and his second highest since 2006. Though it's been only 37 innings, Willis has to be encouraged that his 3.41 ERA is the second best among Reds' starters this year, and that his 118 ERA+ would put him 14th in the NL, between Hiroki Kuroda and Tim Hudson.

Of course, pitching that well for six starts is much less impressive than doing it for an entire season, but I see no reason to rain on this parade. What's important here is that Dontrelle Willis is pitching well in the major leagues again. Therefore, I call for an official moratorium on any tempered optimism regarding the success of Willis's comeback, until further notice, under the punishment of having your status as a fan of the game of baseball revoked. This is one to root for.

Breakout Performances: Jay Bruce

We like our phenoms to be finished products, ready to contribute at the highest level as soon as they arrive on the scene. Tiger Woods won his first Masters as a professional. Fred Lynn won the MVP in his rookie season. Bobby Fischer was a grandmaster at 15. Everyone wants the next awesome thing, that shiny new toy that works like magic right out of the box. Sure, maybe that toy will be Steven Strasburg or Mark Prior and break after a few uses, but we all remember that immediate gratification of them showing up and, for a fleeting moment, being everything we hoped they would.

Sometimes though, that new toy has some assembly required. What's worse, the learning curve might be a little higher, requiring some patience. We wished for it to come, but when it arrived, we found it frustrating. More frustrating than a complete lemon - with a bust, you can just throw it to the side, disappointed, but accepting that it was just no good. Not like the assembly-required, hundreds of hours of practice toy. That will make you work, trying to get the most out of it. Some nights you'll just want to throw it to the floor, or maybe AAA, in frustration. In the end though, when that patience is rewarded, it's such a rewarding feeling.

So, I think you know where I'm going with this.

In 2008, Jay Bruce was the #1 prospect in baseball. In 2011, Jay Bruce leads the National League in HR, RBI and TB through the first two months. Reds' fans, consider yourselves rewarded.

A little background: In 2005, Bruce was the #12 overall pick in the MLB draft, and signed fairly quickly, spending the rest of that year and the next hitting reasonably well in the low minor. In 2007, he broke out, tearing through three levels at a .319/.375/.587 clip, landing in AAA Louisville, at the top of several prospect lists, and drawing favorable comparisons with Larry Walker, for what seemed like a flawless all-around game.

Bruce made his debut on May 27, 2008, and for his first 18 games hit a robust .382/.468/.632, much to the enjoyment of long-suffering Reds fans. Then, the Bruce slipped to .229/.282/.417 for the last 90 games, striking out 98 times in only 393 PA. His final line .254/.314/.453 was hardly an embarrassment for a 21 year old - the #1 pick in the 2008 draft, David Price, rightly considered a phenom, was 19 months older than Bruce - but he was clearly not the ready-out-of-the-box superstar that the Reds were hoping for.

In 2009, Bruce saw incremental improvements to his power, walk rates and strikeout rates, but a disturbing drop in batting average due to a .221 BABIP, leading to a .223/.303/.470 season line. Bruce also played in only 18 games after fracturing his wrist on July 11th.

2010 brought more improvement. Bruce's HR rate actually fell slightly, but his walk rate continued to rise, and that BABIP corrected itself in a big way to .339. Beyond this offensive improvements, Bruce emerged as the NL's premier defensive RF. Defensive metrics can be tricky, but Bruce led all RF in both UZR and Range Factor, and his strong arm allowed him to add 7 assists and keep numerous runners from taking an extra base. Still, even with that great defense, a .281/.353/.493 line, with 25 HR and top 10 finishes in zero categories was hardly conjuring images of Larry Walker.

Maybe it should have. Now three years removed from his "top prospect" status, Bruce felt like an established veteran, so it was easy to forget that he had just finished his age 23 season, sporting a career .257/.327/.474 line. At the same age, Walker had a .234/.320/.408 career line. Walker "broke out" in 1992 with a line that wasn't a whole lot better than Bruce's 2010.

So here we are, the end of May 2011, and Jay Bruce has a .294/.358/.578, with the biggest boost coming in his increased home run rate. After spending his first three years homering once every 20.7 PA, Bruce is doing so every 14.2 PA this year. He's walking at his career rate, and striking out less often, as well. These improvements have allowed him to excel despite his BABIP falling back to .312. That .312 is well within the expected range for someone with Bruce's line drive rate, so there's little reason to thing that his improvement isn't sustainable.

In Larry Walker's MVP season, he hit .366/.452/.720. It's probably unfair to expect that from Jay Bruce, just as it would be unfair to expect it from Jason Heyward, Justin Upton, or Bryce Harper. Bruce is already one of the most valuable players in the National League, and is locked up for the next 7 years at a very reasonable $63M. If he continues to produce at his 2011 levels, that will be a great value for the Reds. If there is more improvement to be had (and he still is less than two months past his 24th birthday), it will surpass Evan Longoria's as the most team-friendly longterm deal in all of baseball.

(Aside - I mentioned Justin Upton in the paragraph above. Upton is still only 23 and has a career line of .271/.351/.473. Anyone who thinks the Diamondbacks need to trade him to improve is a fool. This probably deserved a post of its own this offseason when rumors were swirling about his being dealt, and I may get to it yet. Upton is even a better example than Bruce about unreasonable expectations hindering our appreciation of young players).

Long-term, there are two paths Bruce can take toward becoming an elite, MVP-level star. The first is to reduce that strikeout rate to less than one every 5 PA, because when he hits the ball, he hits it hard. His line drive/fly ball rates make it hard to see him delivering a BABIP lower than .300, and .330 would hardly be out of the picture). Of course, there have been Hall of Fame level players who have struck out at high rates - Reggie Jackson, Sammy Sosa, Jim Thome - but we're talking about guys with historically great power numbers. Which brings us to the second path - Bruce could get there, too - he's on pace for a 47 home run/348 total base season, and, not to belabor the point, he's only 24.

Whatever path Bruce takes, continue to enjoy the ride, Cincinnati fans. You've certainly been patient enough.

10/10/10 Live Blog!!!!

1:00: Welcome to the Sunday LiveBlog! Rays vs. Rangers will be starting momentarily. If you have any questions, comments or insight, e-mail it my way at jamesdunne24@gmail.com. We'll see how long it takes for me to get tired of this.

1:08. I love that Maddon bats John Jaso leadoff. Get that high OBP at the top of the lineup, and he starts it off with a solid single to CF. Rickey Henderson (and Tim Raines to an extent) totally changed the complexion of what a leadoff hitter should be. For awhile you would get guys like Dwight Evans and Brian Downing who could put up a high OBP in front of the power hitters. Then in the late '80's, everyone thought that it was the speed of Henderson and Raines that was making the difference. It was important, but the bigger part was how hard they were to get out.

1:14: Buck Martinez propagating the "knows how to win" myth. Tommy Hunter doesn't win because he "knows how to win." He wins because he's a pretty good pitcher in front of a good defense on a team with a good offense. Is that a bad thing?

1:27: Vlad Guerrero just hit into a double play. Vlad cooled down significantly in the second half, but I'd have to say he's the one player who cemented his Hall of Fame case this year. With the election of Andre Dawson, the comparison between the two is obvious. Both were great athletes when they were young whose knees were shot playing on the bad turf in Montreal. Both had a reputation for swinging at bad pitches. However, Guerrero is the better player, because he actually hit more of those bad pitches.

1:56: Who would have a better chance of beating the Yankees? The conventional wisdom has been the Rays, but the Rangers have Cliff Lee, who the Yankees can't be quite as patient against, and Josh Hamilton, arguably the best left power hitter in baseball, going into the best park in baseball for a lefty power hitter. Thoughts?

2:06: The Rays are very reminiscent of the 2000-2005 A's in my mind. A team that walks a lot and hits a lot of home runs, but does not hit for a high average, is well built for the regular season. Over 162 games, a team sees a lot of mediocre to bad pitching, and the approach of waiting for a pitch you can drive instead of swinging at the first strike makes lesser pitchers pay. However, in the playoffs, you face the best pitchers on the best teams. Generally, those aren't the type who are prone to giving up walks and homers. That's why the Rays, despite being a good team, have been no-hitter prone, and it's something they need to make up for in the playoffs with good defense and pitching.

3:42: Calzones interrupted my posting. Anyway, another way in which the Rays remind me of those A's teams is all the talk about how much trouble they'll be in losing Crawford, Pena and Soriano. Crawford will be a big loss, no doubt. Wishy-washy "face of the franchise" discussion notwithstanding, Crawford had 62 extra base hits and 47 steals. He's a dynamic player still in his 20's who will get lots and lots of money. Pena, however, is replaceable. He has good power, and plays good defense, but 1B who can't put up a .330 OBP are a luxury that a poor team can't afford. As he moves into his mid-30's, his inability to make consistent enough contact could lead to his value diminishing in a hurry, a la Jason Giambi. Soriano had a great year as a closer and is a very good pitcher. But again, poor teams can't pay a premium for 50 innings a year. Like those A's teams, the Rays ability to continue developing their young pitching will keep them contenders despite the loss of significant talent.

4:41: And by "live" I mean "updated once or so an hour." Anyhow, after they Rays win today, the road team has won all four games of their series. The only time that I recall a team has lost the first two of a best of five at home, and then got back their for Game 5 was the 2001 Yankees. Those Yankees did not have to go home to meet Cliff Lee, who the Rays will see on Tuesday. David Price is very good, but Lee gets the slight edge, even on the road. The big winner here is the Yankees, who will face neither of those two in Game 1 of the ALCS.

5:00: Jason Heyward has impressed me this year. Ken Griffey didn't have a .390+ OBP until his 3rd year, Barry Bonds until his 5th. Heyward's power will continue to develop, and a batting eye that good is something you can't teach. He will have some adjustments to make on the hard stuff inside, but he is already a very, very good baseball player. If he'd had the numbers he had in Atlanta in Double A, he'd still be the #1 prospect in baseball. If he's not an MVP candidate from 2012-2022, something went terribly wrong.

5:12: Something like running too hard into a wall, for example.

5:13: Maybe if he's healthy, Heyward makes it to that ball, but Brooks Conrad is crushing the Braves. Chipper Jones' injury was tough, but it looks like the Prado injury is the one having the larger affect on the Braves.

5:42: Watching Mike Fontenot making a nice play on an Omar Infante grounder, it's crazy to think that the Giants were able to put a playoff team together with almost no contribution from Pablo Sandoval. Sandoval's extra base hits fell from 74 to 50, and since he doesn't walk or play great defense, that's basically where all of his value comes from. AT&T Park is a tough place to hit, but plenty of hitters have put up 20 HR seasons there.

6:26: Love the no-hitter being broken up by the opposing pitcher.

7:21: Eric Hinske! Following Hinske's 2002 Rookie of the Year campaign, settling in to a long career as a backup four corners guy may seem like a bit of a disappointment. Hinske really seems to have had more than his share of big moments on good teams since moving over to the Red Sox four years ago. Unlike his mammoth home run off of Joe Blanton in Game 4 of the '08 series this one was a line drive that barely cleared the wall. He's not quite baseball's Robert Horry, and Big Shot Eric just doesn't roll off the tongue the same way, but let's go with it.

7:29: When Brooks Conrad called off Derrek Lee for that pop-up, I'm pretty sure Turner Field made a sound sort of like "AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHNOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOWHEW"

7:40: While the idea of the "Proven Closer" may be severely overrated, what is NOT overrated is having good pitchers in your bullpen. Billy Wagner is not as good as he once was, but he was the best reliever the Braves had.

7:46: This Giants rally is the fire, and Kyle Farnsworth is the fuel that Bobby Cox has just decided to throw onto it. Peter Moylan gave up a ground ball to second base, it's not his fault that Brooks Conrad is having a meltdown on national television. Moylan should still be in this game.

8:16: For the 29 teams about to lose out to the Yankees for the right to pay Carl Crawford $150M over the next 8 years, Jayson Werth will be a nice consolation prize. Attitude problems notwithstanding, he had a great season. 75 extra base hits this year, and four straight years with an OPS above .850. Some of those homers and doubles may turn into outs elsewhere, but his road OPS over the last four years is only about 40 points lower than his home OPS, which isn't far off the normal home/road split. He won't cost nearly as much as Crawford, and won't end up with as many years either. Because of injuries it took him awhile to get good - he's 31, so he is not going to get better than that, but he is a well-rounded player who will be a solid investment over the next four years.

9:11: For all of the talk about the inconsistency of Raul Ibanez this year, he has been one of the most consistent players of the past decade. His OBP has been between .345 and .358 every year since 2001. Despite the huge drop in power numbers this year, his OBP actually went UP two points from '09. This speaks to the consistency of his plate approach. For the criticism his contact took, he has been worth at least the $23.5M he's gotten the past two years, and is a safe bet to be worth the $10M he'll get next year. It's not the late career improvement on the level of Dwight Evans, Chili Davis or Jim Edmonds, but Ibanez has had a nice career.

9:42: I don't think I agree with taking Johnny Cueto out right here. I'm all for the quick hook in the playoffs, especially when a team is in the Reds position. Ron Gardenhire left Brian Duensing in a bit too long yesterday when he clearly didn't have good stuff. Cueto though, has been pitching very well, only one earned run in five innings, and not a whole ton of hard hit balls. The bigger issue is that Miguel Cairo isn't such a good hitter that he's likely to tie this game, and there is nobody on base, so they need two runs back. Cueto seems to me to be as good a bet as anyone in the Cincinnati bullpen to keep this a two run game.

10:42: You have to feel a little bit of sympathy for Cincinnati. After a very good season where they really didn't get as much attention as they deserved, they're running into a Philadelphia team whose pitching staff is as dominant as any and seems to be catching every break. Plus their football team is atrocious. If their season does end tonight though, they should take heart - they made a huge step forward this year. Joey Votto will likely win the NL MVP (and deserve it), Jay Bruce was one of the best players in the league in the last two months, and I'll take a Volquez/Cueto/Arroyo/Bailey/Harang rotation over any in the NL outside of Philly in 2011. They, along with San Francisco and Texas, are one of the few teams that can consider their season a success no matter what happens the rest of the way.