Bill James: "I think Dwight Evans is a Hall of Famer"

I wanted to link to yesterday's article at Grantland where Bill James advocated putting Dwight Evans in the Hall of Fame. Evans was my favorite players as a child, so the pro-Evans appreciations in recent years are pretty enjoyable for me. Unlike a lot of James's contributions "Win Shares" have not really caught on, for a variety of reasons, and the article is a bit verbose (as James has a tendency to be), but the argument is strong, I think. Pretty amazing to think that Evans, who fell off the ballot in his second year, could now be thought of as a Hall of Fame candidate, but that's why there are rules in place to enable us to re-evaluate players. Guys whose value came in things other than the standard Triple Crown stats can take awhile to be appreciated. That's why it took so long to get Ron Santo in the Hall.

A couple more thoughts:

1. I have trouble believing Evans will get to the Hall anytime soon. However, the Red Sox really should retire his number. You can make a fairly strong case that Evans is the third greatest player in Red Sox history, behind Ted Williams and Carl Yastrzemski. Let's get his #24 up in right field.

2. I hope James follows up his Evans piece on an even more neglected player, who, like Evans, was a star in the 80's who got underappreciated because his value wasn't in home runs and batting average. Lou Whitaker only hit .300 twice and never once drove in 100 runs. However, he retired with a career WAR close to 70 on the strength of a high OBP and great defense. By scoring and preventing runs, Whitaker played a big role in making Jack Morris a Hall of Fame candidate.

The Royals Rebuilding Continues: Mike Moustakas Arrives

The Royals' other top 10 prospect, third baseman Mike Moustakas, was called up on Friday and started the past three games, going 3 for 10 with three walks and the first of what could be many home runs. Moustakas follows Eric Hosmer, who debuted a month ago, along with pitchers Tim Collins, Aaron Crow and Jeremy Jeffress in the Royals youth movement.

Drafted #2 overall in the 2007 draft out of Chatsworth High School, the same school that produced Dwight Evans, Moustakas saw his status jump around over the years due to some fluctuations in batting average. He had a breakout season in 2010, going .322/.369/.630 with 36 home runs and 124 RBI at AA and AAA as a 21 year old, vaulting him to #9 in Baseball America's status. The one concern was his low K/BB rate, consistently striking out at least twice as often as he walked, an issue that some believed would keep his batting average down.

Beginning the 2011 season in AAA, Moustakas continued to show power, with 15 2B and 10 HR in 250 PA. However, 41 strikeouts to only 19 walks had some scouts worried, and it kept his overall production at .287/.347/.498 - good, but not fantastic. Still, the Royals are committed to their rebuilding, and decided that Moustakas, likely past being eligible for the "Super Two" status that's become the bugaboo among GMs recently, should get his chance.

So, Moustakas deserves his status as a top prospect, but he is hardly flawless. The three walks in his first three MLB games are a good sign, but are not really in line with his past performance. If Moustakas continues his free-swinging ways, major league pitchers with better control and more ability to make adjustments than their minor league counterparts, will simply give Moustakas little in the way of hittable pitches. Moustakas replaces Wilson Betemit, who was hitting .289/.348/.411, his second consecutive good season for Kansas City. It seems like forever ago when Betemit was a top-10 prospect himself, but he is only 29 years old and has a career .268/.336/.443 line. His defense leaves something to be desired, and I'm skeptical of the Royals' plan to use him in a utility role that includes being a backup SS and 2B, but I don't expect him to be a Royal much longer. Betemit could be had in trade with a team that needs a starting 3B or switch hitter off the bench who can play the four corners and possibly the middle infield in a real emergency. The Rockies, who have run out of patience with Ian Stewart, or the Mariners if they decide they are contenders and are willing to accept that Chone Figgins isn't getting the job done, are destinations that could make sense.

I'm not sure if Moustakas is an immediate upgrade over Betemit offensively in 2011, but the Royals are not playing for this year. Moustakas has such advanced power that there's little more he can do to improve in AAA - he'll always have that power to fall back on, and he'll be facing a lot of pitchers who are in AAA because they give up too many home runs. That combination will make it hard for him to improve his other skills, such as improving his plate discipline and making more consistent contact. With the Royals likely aiming for a 2013 date for being real contenders, getting Moustakas 1000 or so plate appearances by then will allow him to make those necessary adjustments. I like Hosmer's upside more, because I see him as a more well-rounded hitter, but Moustakas has an upside as a 45 home run type, settling in nicely as a #5 hitter behind Hosmer, Billy Butler, and a finally-producing Alex Gordon.