Ok, so usually when I post something about how someone should play more, or is better than you think, they immediately put up a stink bomb. The most obvious case this year was Madison Bumgarner having the worst starting pitching line of the year the day I posted that he was much better than his win-loss record. I'd been right a couple times, like when I talked about Desmond Jennings, but usually I make bold pronouncements and end up with egg on my face. So yesterday, when I posted about Mike Trout deserving more playing time, my assumption was that he'd start and go 0 for 5 with 3 strikeouts and ground into two double plays.
He didn't.
Trout did get the start last night, batting 7th against the Mariners. When Trout came up with the bases empty and one out in the second inning off of fellow rookie Anthony Vazquez, he hit a solo home run to deep LF to give the Angels a 1-0 lead. When he came up in the fourth inning with two on and one out, he hit a three run homer to give the Angels a 4-0 lead.
Two plate appearances, two home runs, driving in all four Angel runs.
Trout came up again in the 5th, with the game starting to get a bit out of hand. He walked with the bases loaded off of reliever Jeff Gray to "drive" in Torii Hunter to make it a 7-2 game, and scored on a Maicer Izturis double that made the score 10-2. He grounded out in the 7th and struck out in the ninth, giving him a game line of 2 for 4 with 2 homers, 3 runs, 5 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K, and a WPA of +.338.
Trout now has a season line of .246/.306/.523. He wakes up with a slugging percentage higher than Mark Teixeira or Carlos Quentin. It's a very small sample, but we don't really have any evidence that he isn't really really good. It isn't about the future. Trout gives them the best chance to sneak past the Rangers into the playoffs this year.
Keep your eye on that lineup card tonight.
Showing posts with label Mike Trout. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Mike Trout. Show all posts
Wednesday, August 31, 2011
Tuesday, August 30, 2011
Mike Trout Sits Again. Angels Lose Again.
In four important division games since Friday, the Angels are 1-3. I thought I'd point out an interesting trend I noticed:
Record when Mike Trout starts: 1-0
Record when Mike Trout doesn't start: 0-3
Therefore, my incredibly oversimplified analysis of the situation is that the Angels are now incapable of winning games without Mike Trout.
Hey, we still use pitcher wins, right? Aren't Trout Wins just as legitimate? Aren't they?
No, of course not. Whether a batter is in a game that his team wins is even MORE prone to luck than the starting pitcher. The batter only gets abour 4 or 5 at bats in a game, plus however many defensive plays he may be involved in. A starting pitcher will usually be somewhere between 25-30 batters faced. A batter could go 4 for 4 with 4 home runs, and still lose 15-4 if everyone else on his team stinks. Pitcher wins are dumb. Batter wins are way, way dumber.
Still, the fact that not starting Mike Trout probably isn't the reason the Angels keep losing when they don't start him doesn't mean they shouldn't be starting him. (Did I put enough negatives in that sentence for you? Did it hurt your head? See, that's how I feel when I read about pitcher wins. Feel free to proceed).
There's a tool called "Win Probablity Added" going around the stat community. It does exactly what it says - measures each thing you do on the field and how much it changed your team's chances of winning.
I'm not a huge fan of the tool as a judge of "value" - it's kind of like RBI for us stat nerds, considering the situation and not the event. A player who hits a home run in the 8th inning of a tie game didn't do anything more valuable than the one who hits a home run to lead off the game, but it will obviously change the probability more. Because of this, it falsely inflates the "value" of closers, and devalues the value of starting pitchers who are on teams with a good offense - C.C. Sabathia giving up 1 run in 8 innings and winning 9-1 pitched just as well as Jered Weaver giving up 1 run in 8 innings and winning 2-1. FanGraphs directly states that it has no predictive value, and that there are better stats to use for raw player evaluations.
What WPA does well, on the other hand, is enhance the narrative of individual games. Joe Posnanski gives a nice post about that here, discussing the top 10 games by WPA.
(Aside. That #10 game, where Dwight Evans hit a home run to tie the game in the 8th inning, and then won it in the 10th, is my favorite non-playoff game in my Red Sox watching lifetime, and will be getting a follow-up post.)
Looking at the WPA for some of the great games in history is pretty fascinating. For example, I remember watching Game 4 of the 2001 World Series - the game where the Yankees beat the Diamondbacks with two home runs of Byung-hyn Kim, first by Tino Martinez in the 9th inning, then by Derek Jeter in the 10th. That's one of the most memorable game endings in recent history, but it's not what I remember it for. Nope, I remember that three times in that game, Tony Womack led off his inning with a hit. He hit singles in the first and third inning, and a double in the fifth. In EACH of those circumstances, Bob Brenly had Craig Counsell bunt. And, in EACH of those innings, the Diamondbacks failed to score any runs. I remember thinking how stupid it seemed that Brenly would waste all of those outs. Well, WPA confims it - those sacrifice bunts increased the Yankees chances of winning by 2%, each. WPA is not done retroactively - it doesn't recalculate based on what Martinez and Jeter did later on. It simply tells us what the consequences of a play are on the game and how they change the game at that time. What they tell us, in this situation, is that Brenly killed his team. Counsell had a .359 OBP in 2001 (from 2000-2005, it was .348, so that's not fluky). So, it stands to reason that, in three plate appearances, Counsell would get on base once. Or, in other words, NOT MAKE AN OUT once. Instead, because of Brenly's strategy, he made an out all three times. On purpose. We can't say for sure if the Diamondbacks lost because of that, but we know that their bad strategy didn't help them and that they lost by one run.
Wait, wait, I thought we were talking about Mike Trout? Where is this going, why are you writing about a playoff game from 10 years ago?!
Sorry, I got a little carried away there. I still can't think of Bob Brenly without thinking about that game.
Anyway. Mike Trout. WPA. Right.
On Friday, the Angels lost to the Rangers 11-7 and fell three games behind. They had been losing 11-0, but the back end of the Ranger bullpen apparently decided to give them a sporting chance. What did the non-Trout Angels' outfielders do?
LF Vernon Wells: 2-3, 2B, R; WPA +.002
CF Peter Borjous: 1-5, CS; WPA -.084
RF: Torii Hunter: 1-3; WPA -.061
TOTAL: .364/364/.455; WPA -.143
Recap: It's fair to use this as an example of why WPA isn't so hot sometimes. The Angels lost this game because Dan Haren stunk.
Trout Effect: Minimal. Though he got into the game late as a pinch hitter, going 1-2 with a single, the outfield wasn't the reason they lost. The end of the first inning, where Hunter struck out while Borjous was caught stealing while it was still a 0-0 game is why the WPA for the group is so bad.
On Saturday, Mike Trout started, and the Angels won 8-4. As a team, they hit 5 homers and moved back to two games behind.
LF Vernon Wells: 2-4, HR, 3B, BB, R, RBI; WPA +.127
CF Peter Borjous: 1-5, HR, SB, RBI, 2 R; WPA +.035
RF Mike Trout: 2-4, HR, R, RBI; WPA +.037
TOTAL: .385/.429/1.231; WPA +.199
Recap: Howie Kendrick and Bobby Wilson homered too. It's fair to say C.J. Wilson wasn't sharp in this one. Still, the Angel outfielders played a major role in the one.
Trout Effect: MAKES HIS TEAMMATES BETTER. KNOWS HOW TO WIN. Yeah, back to earth. He had a very good game, and was one of the reasons the Angels won.
On Sunday, Trout did not start, the Angels lost 9-5 and fell back to three games behind.
LF Vernon Wells: 1-4, RBI; WPA +.006
CF Peter Borjous: 0-4; WPA -.065
RF Torii Hunter: 0-3, BB; WPA -.060
TOTAL: .091/.167/.091; WPA -.119
Recap: The Angels were winning this one until Jered Weaver blew up in the 7th. The +.008 of Wells' two out RBI in the 3rd was largely negated by a pop out in the first with two outs and runners on first and second. Torii Hunter's strikeout in the third with a man on second and one out while leading 2-1 wasn't a highlight either.
Trout Effect: Notable. Despite the final, this was a close game for much of the way. A couple outs made by Hunter and Wells with runners in scoring position allowed Colby Lewis to stay in the game through six, which got the ball to the good part of the Ranger bullpen.
Last night, the Angels lost to the lowly Mariners, 5-3. With the Rangers off, the Angels fall to 3.5 games back. Jokes about the patheticness of the Mariner offense may now be passe. Allowing Dustin Ackley and Mike Carp to settle into the 3/4 spots in the lineup is making a big difference. Their .416 SLG as a team in August is 60 points higher than it was any other month, and their .329 OBP ranks 5th in the American League. Sleeper pick for 2012? Not quite ready to jump on that bandwagon, but with their pitching, getting an average offense can make them a serious contender.
LF Vernon Wells: 1-4, R; WPA -.074
CF Peter Borjous: 1-3; WPA -.146
RF Torii Hunter: 1-4, R; WPA -.052
TOTAL: .283/.283/.283; WPA -.272
Recap: Borjous's line drive double play when it was a 3-3 game in the 7th was a killer in the WPA department. The singles all came early in the game, limiting the WPA.
Trout Effect: Moderate. The guy DOES have a .426 SLG, doesn't he? This looks for the world like the kind of game where they needed an extra base hit to swing the balance.
So, over the last three days, Mike Trout has a WPA of +.037, while the rest of the Angel outfielders are at -.372. As we mentioned about, that has no predictive value, only narrative value. So, maybe we can't conclude that playing Mike Trout more would have helped them. What we do know is that, on the whole, the guys they did play didn't help them.
Record when Mike Trout starts: 1-0
Record when Mike Trout doesn't start: 0-3
Therefore, my incredibly oversimplified analysis of the situation is that the Angels are now incapable of winning games without Mike Trout.
Hey, we still use pitcher wins, right? Aren't Trout Wins just as legitimate? Aren't they?
No, of course not. Whether a batter is in a game that his team wins is even MORE prone to luck than the starting pitcher. The batter only gets abour 4 or 5 at bats in a game, plus however many defensive plays he may be involved in. A starting pitcher will usually be somewhere between 25-30 batters faced. A batter could go 4 for 4 with 4 home runs, and still lose 15-4 if everyone else on his team stinks. Pitcher wins are dumb. Batter wins are way, way dumber.
Still, the fact that not starting Mike Trout probably isn't the reason the Angels keep losing when they don't start him doesn't mean they shouldn't be starting him. (Did I put enough negatives in that sentence for you? Did it hurt your head? See, that's how I feel when I read about pitcher wins. Feel free to proceed).
There's a tool called "Win Probablity Added" going around the stat community. It does exactly what it says - measures each thing you do on the field and how much it changed your team's chances of winning.
I'm not a huge fan of the tool as a judge of "value" - it's kind of like RBI for us stat nerds, considering the situation and not the event. A player who hits a home run in the 8th inning of a tie game didn't do anything more valuable than the one who hits a home run to lead off the game, but it will obviously change the probability more. Because of this, it falsely inflates the "value" of closers, and devalues the value of starting pitchers who are on teams with a good offense - C.C. Sabathia giving up 1 run in 8 innings and winning 9-1 pitched just as well as Jered Weaver giving up 1 run in 8 innings and winning 2-1. FanGraphs directly states that it has no predictive value, and that there are better stats to use for raw player evaluations.
What WPA does well, on the other hand, is enhance the narrative of individual games. Joe Posnanski gives a nice post about that here, discussing the top 10 games by WPA.
(Aside. That #10 game, where Dwight Evans hit a home run to tie the game in the 8th inning, and then won it in the 10th, is my favorite non-playoff game in my Red Sox watching lifetime, and will be getting a follow-up post.)
Looking at the WPA for some of the great games in history is pretty fascinating. For example, I remember watching Game 4 of the 2001 World Series - the game where the Yankees beat the Diamondbacks with two home runs of Byung-hyn Kim, first by Tino Martinez in the 9th inning, then by Derek Jeter in the 10th. That's one of the most memorable game endings in recent history, but it's not what I remember it for. Nope, I remember that three times in that game, Tony Womack led off his inning with a hit. He hit singles in the first and third inning, and a double in the fifth. In EACH of those circumstances, Bob Brenly had Craig Counsell bunt. And, in EACH of those innings, the Diamondbacks failed to score any runs. I remember thinking how stupid it seemed that Brenly would waste all of those outs. Well, WPA confims it - those sacrifice bunts increased the Yankees chances of winning by 2%, each. WPA is not done retroactively - it doesn't recalculate based on what Martinez and Jeter did later on. It simply tells us what the consequences of a play are on the game and how they change the game at that time. What they tell us, in this situation, is that Brenly killed his team. Counsell had a .359 OBP in 2001 (from 2000-2005, it was .348, so that's not fluky). So, it stands to reason that, in three plate appearances, Counsell would get on base once. Or, in other words, NOT MAKE AN OUT once. Instead, because of Brenly's strategy, he made an out all three times. On purpose. We can't say for sure if the Diamondbacks lost because of that, but we know that their bad strategy didn't help them and that they lost by one run.
Wait, wait, I thought we were talking about Mike Trout? Where is this going, why are you writing about a playoff game from 10 years ago?!
Sorry, I got a little carried away there. I still can't think of Bob Brenly without thinking about that game.
Anyway. Mike Trout. WPA. Right.
On Friday, the Angels lost to the Rangers 11-7 and fell three games behind. They had been losing 11-0, but the back end of the Ranger bullpen apparently decided to give them a sporting chance. What did the non-Trout Angels' outfielders do?
LF Vernon Wells: 2-3, 2B, R; WPA +.002
CF Peter Borjous: 1-5, CS; WPA -.084
RF: Torii Hunter: 1-3; WPA -.061
TOTAL: .364/364/.455; WPA -.143
Recap: It's fair to use this as an example of why WPA isn't so hot sometimes. The Angels lost this game because Dan Haren stunk.
Trout Effect: Minimal. Though he got into the game late as a pinch hitter, going 1-2 with a single, the outfield wasn't the reason they lost. The end of the first inning, where Hunter struck out while Borjous was caught stealing while it was still a 0-0 game is why the WPA for the group is so bad.
On Saturday, Mike Trout started, and the Angels won 8-4. As a team, they hit 5 homers and moved back to two games behind.
LF Vernon Wells: 2-4, HR, 3B, BB, R, RBI; WPA +.127
CF Peter Borjous: 1-5, HR, SB, RBI, 2 R; WPA +.035
RF Mike Trout: 2-4, HR, R, RBI; WPA +.037
TOTAL: .385/.429/1.231; WPA +.199
Recap: Howie Kendrick and Bobby Wilson homered too. It's fair to say C.J. Wilson wasn't sharp in this one. Still, the Angel outfielders played a major role in the one.
Trout Effect: MAKES HIS TEAMMATES BETTER. KNOWS HOW TO WIN. Yeah, back to earth. He had a very good game, and was one of the reasons the Angels won.
On Sunday, Trout did not start, the Angels lost 9-5 and fell back to three games behind.
LF Vernon Wells: 1-4, RBI; WPA +.006
CF Peter Borjous: 0-4; WPA -.065
RF Torii Hunter: 0-3, BB; WPA -.060
TOTAL: .091/.167/.091; WPA -.119
Recap: The Angels were winning this one until Jered Weaver blew up in the 7th. The +.008 of Wells' two out RBI in the 3rd was largely negated by a pop out in the first with two outs and runners on first and second. Torii Hunter's strikeout in the third with a man on second and one out while leading 2-1 wasn't a highlight either.
Trout Effect: Notable. Despite the final, this was a close game for much of the way. A couple outs made by Hunter and Wells with runners in scoring position allowed Colby Lewis to stay in the game through six, which got the ball to the good part of the Ranger bullpen.
Last night, the Angels lost to the lowly Mariners, 5-3. With the Rangers off, the Angels fall to 3.5 games back. Jokes about the patheticness of the Mariner offense may now be passe. Allowing Dustin Ackley and Mike Carp to settle into the 3/4 spots in the lineup is making a big difference. Their .416 SLG as a team in August is 60 points higher than it was any other month, and their .329 OBP ranks 5th in the American League. Sleeper pick for 2012? Not quite ready to jump on that bandwagon, but with their pitching, getting an average offense can make them a serious contender.
LF Vernon Wells: 1-4, R; WPA -.074
CF Peter Borjous: 1-3; WPA -.146
RF Torii Hunter: 1-4, R; WPA -.052
TOTAL: .283/.283/.283; WPA -.272
Recap: Borjous's line drive double play when it was a 3-3 game in the 7th was a killer in the WPA department. The singles all came early in the game, limiting the WPA.
Trout Effect: Moderate. The guy DOES have a .426 SLG, doesn't he? This looks for the world like the kind of game where they needed an extra base hit to swing the balance.
So, over the last three days, Mike Trout has a WPA of +.037, while the rest of the Angel outfielders are at -.372. As we mentioned about, that has no predictive value, only narrative value. So, maybe we can't conclude that playing Mike Trout more would have helped them. What we do know is that, on the whole, the guys they did play didn't help them.
Monday, August 29, 2011
Potential Impact Callups
It's hard to believe we're already here, but in only three days, it will be September 1. Teams in contention will be racing to set up their playoff rosters, those out of contention will be checking out some of the players who could help them in the future. I just wanted to look at a few of the guys who could make an impact either in the pennant races or playoffs.
Mike Trout, Angels: I've discussed Trout a couple times, and I maintain my belief that he's the #1 "prospect" in baseball. It's possible that Trout will exhaust his rookie status in September, making him ineligible for the 2012 ROY award. If he doesn't, he is the serious favorite. That's not the Angels concern right now, though. Sitting only three games behind the Rangers, Trout may give them the best shot to close that gap.
Trout got the start in only one of the three games in the important series against the Rangers this past weekend, getting the right field nod in Saturday's game. Just by chance, it's the only game in the series the Angels won. Trout also got two at bats after coming in as a pinch hitter in Friday nights game. For the series, he went 3 for 6, with a home run and a strikeout. His impact down the stretch will depend entirely on how much Scioscia plays him.
Jesus Montero, Yankees: Let's all say this together. Jesus. Montero. Is. Not. A. Catcher.
We have that out of the way. It's ok, Yankee fans. Carlos Delgado wasn't a catcher either, no matter how much the early '90's Blue Jays wanted him to be. Delgado hit so much that nobody cared. I don't know if Montero will become the hitter Delgado was, but he'll hit enough that it won't make a difference.
The Yankees overall production at DH this year hasn't been as bad as you probably think. They've hit .247/.331/.432, good for 8th in the AL in OBP and 5th in SLG. However, that number is inflated some by the time spent DH-ing by guys who play other positions. In 21 games, Robinson Cano, Nick Swisher, Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez have gone .256/.351/.512. The "regular" DH, Jorge Posada, has gone .232/.306/.390 at the position. Among the 14 regular DH's, that puts him tied for last in OBP, and 11th in SLG, a number that may be inflated by Yankee Stadium, since 7 of his 9 doubles, and 9 of his 12 home runs are there. Away from the Stadium's short porch, he's hit a paltry .187/.274/.302.
Meanwhile, much has been made of Montero's season. Is he a catcher, is he overrated because of the Yankees, is he better than Posada? Short answers - no, maybe, yes. Despite a drop in production from last year, Montero has hit .289/.348/.465 for Scranton. The lack of power from his first half has been forgotten - since the All-Star Break he's at .287/.353/.559. He's not the #3 prospect in baseball, where he was placed before the season, but he's ready for the majors. The Yankees' insistence on keeping him in the minors has cost them, but shouldn't for much longer. Expect to see him starting on Thursday at the latest.
Trevor Bauer, Diamondbacks: The #3 pick in the 2011 draft may well be the first to debut. Bauer signed early and has dominated since - in six starts and 24 innings across two levels, he has a 2.62 ERA, 30 strikeouts and only 9 walks. There has been some worry about his workload, but he may well get a chance to help the already-excellent Arizona bullpen. I doubt we'll see him start unless there is an obvious opening or the playoff race opens up.
One qualifier - I sincerely hope he doesn't pull a Jonathan Papelbon or Neftali Feliz and dominate so much out of the bullpen that he is made the "future closer." Bauer is worth more as a starter, both to his team and in consideration of his own checkbook.
Matt Moore, Rays: Are the Rays still in contention? Well, they have six games left with the Yankees, and they're 6.5 games behind. So, while it would take a pretty amazing comeback for them to get into the playoffs, it's not out of the realm of possibility. It's also very possible they'll end up with the 3rd best record in the American League and still miss the playoffs.
Moore was the darling of the future's game, and has been dominant since his promotion to Triple A Durham. In 46.2 innings, he has a 1.35 ERA, a 0.943 WHIP, 69 strikeouts, 15 walks and 3 home runs allowed, and he is a southpaw, which makes him a great matchup for the lefty-heavy opponents at the top of the division. If Trout loses rookie status, Moore becomes the front runner for the 2012 award. Unlike Bauer, I don't see Moore being used in the bullpen - he'll either get a couple starts, or be shut down. (Unless I'm wrong, of course. That's happened before.)
Mike Trout, Angels: I've discussed Trout a couple times, and I maintain my belief that he's the #1 "prospect" in baseball. It's possible that Trout will exhaust his rookie status in September, making him ineligible for the 2012 ROY award. If he doesn't, he is the serious favorite. That's not the Angels concern right now, though. Sitting only three games behind the Rangers, Trout may give them the best shot to close that gap.
Trout got the start in only one of the three games in the important series against the Rangers this past weekend, getting the right field nod in Saturday's game. Just by chance, it's the only game in the series the Angels won. Trout also got two at bats after coming in as a pinch hitter in Friday nights game. For the series, he went 3 for 6, with a home run and a strikeout. His impact down the stretch will depend entirely on how much Scioscia plays him.
Jesus Montero, Yankees: Let's all say this together. Jesus. Montero. Is. Not. A. Catcher.
We have that out of the way. It's ok, Yankee fans. Carlos Delgado wasn't a catcher either, no matter how much the early '90's Blue Jays wanted him to be. Delgado hit so much that nobody cared. I don't know if Montero will become the hitter Delgado was, but he'll hit enough that it won't make a difference.
The Yankees overall production at DH this year hasn't been as bad as you probably think. They've hit .247/.331/.432, good for 8th in the AL in OBP and 5th in SLG. However, that number is inflated some by the time spent DH-ing by guys who play other positions. In 21 games, Robinson Cano, Nick Swisher, Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez have gone .256/.351/.512. The "regular" DH, Jorge Posada, has gone .232/.306/.390 at the position. Among the 14 regular DH's, that puts him tied for last in OBP, and 11th in SLG, a number that may be inflated by Yankee Stadium, since 7 of his 9 doubles, and 9 of his 12 home runs are there. Away from the Stadium's short porch, he's hit a paltry .187/.274/.302.
Meanwhile, much has been made of Montero's season. Is he a catcher, is he overrated because of the Yankees, is he better than Posada? Short answers - no, maybe, yes. Despite a drop in production from last year, Montero has hit .289/.348/.465 for Scranton. The lack of power from his first half has been forgotten - since the All-Star Break he's at .287/.353/.559. He's not the #3 prospect in baseball, where he was placed before the season, but he's ready for the majors. The Yankees' insistence on keeping him in the minors has cost them, but shouldn't for much longer. Expect to see him starting on Thursday at the latest.
Trevor Bauer, Diamondbacks: The #3 pick in the 2011 draft may well be the first to debut. Bauer signed early and has dominated since - in six starts and 24 innings across two levels, he has a 2.62 ERA, 30 strikeouts and only 9 walks. There has been some worry about his workload, but he may well get a chance to help the already-excellent Arizona bullpen. I doubt we'll see him start unless there is an obvious opening or the playoff race opens up.
One qualifier - I sincerely hope he doesn't pull a Jonathan Papelbon or Neftali Feliz and dominate so much out of the bullpen that he is made the "future closer." Bauer is worth more as a starter, both to his team and in consideration of his own checkbook.
Matt Moore, Rays: Are the Rays still in contention? Well, they have six games left with the Yankees, and they're 6.5 games behind. So, while it would take a pretty amazing comeback for them to get into the playoffs, it's not out of the realm of possibility. It's also very possible they'll end up with the 3rd best record in the American League and still miss the playoffs.
Moore was the darling of the future's game, and has been dominant since his promotion to Triple A Durham. In 46.2 innings, he has a 1.35 ERA, a 0.943 WHIP, 69 strikeouts, 15 walks and 3 home runs allowed, and he is a southpaw, which makes him a great matchup for the lefty-heavy opponents at the top of the division. If Trout loses rookie status, Moore becomes the front runner for the 2012 award. Unlike Bauer, I don't see Moore being used in the bullpen - he'll either get a couple starts, or be shut down. (Unless I'm wrong, of course. That's happened before.)
Thursday, August 11, 2011
Angels Send Mike Trout Back to AA, Might Not Know What They're Doing
When last we discussed Mike Trout here, the Angels had recalled him due to an injury to Peter Bourjos. I admit that I may have had delusions of grandeur, but there was always the chance that he wasn't quite ready. Indeed, his .163/.213/.279 line in 14 games showed that he wasn't quite ready for The Show. If the Angels were in the same position as the Mariners or Astros, playing for 2012 and beyond, it may have made sense to see what he could do in the last two months anyway, but the Angels are not in that position. Engaged in a closer-than-expected race with the Angels in the American League West, the Angels couldn't give Trout the playing time a super prospect needs. Here's where things get a little bit silly.
On August 1, the Angels demoted Trout all the way back down to AA - the level where he'd dominated to a .324/.415/.534 clip in 341 plate appearances. All six tools were on display, and he was the youngest player in his league. The only four players with higher OBPs were between 4 and 12 years older than Trout was. Given that level of production, wouldn't a promotion to AAA have been forthcoming, even if the major league promotion wasn't there?
Apparently Tony Reagins - who, let's let it be said, should have every decision he makes about an outfielder be thoroughly questioned - didn't think so, and sent Trout to continue his apprenticeship at a level where he seemingly has nothing left to learn. What has Trout done there? Why, the same thing he did every night - try to take over the wo.... errr, make AA pitchers feel bad about themselves. In 41 post-demotion plate appearances, he is batting .343/.439/.543, with 3 doubles, 2 triples, 4 steals and 6 walks.
Let me say this definitively. Mike Trout is ready for AAA.
The Angels keeping Trout in AA doesn't just stunt his progress, it stunts theirs as an organization. Most likely, Trout will be a major league callup in September. Wouldn't a month of facing AAA pitching - a major step up from AA for a variety of reasons, most notably the ability of pitchers to throw off-speed pitches for strikes - better prepare Trout to contribute when he does? If there IS a flaw in his game that AAA pitchers could expose, isn't working it out now, rather than next season, the best bet? If he dominates at AAA as well, doesn't he have to be considered a starter next year, to heck with how much money they owe Vernon Wells (who happens to have the worst OBP in the major leagues)?
The Angels, for all the dumb things they do like not playing Mike Napoli and trading Mike Napoli, have won a lot of games the last 10 years. The biggest reason they've won is from contributions from home grown talent. They will need to continue to do so in order to keep up with the Rangers, so it it is worth watching their handling of Mike Trout going forward.
On August 1, the Angels demoted Trout all the way back down to AA - the level where he'd dominated to a .324/.415/.534 clip in 341 plate appearances. All six tools were on display, and he was the youngest player in his league. The only four players with higher OBPs were between 4 and 12 years older than Trout was. Given that level of production, wouldn't a promotion to AAA have been forthcoming, even if the major league promotion wasn't there?
Apparently Tony Reagins - who, let's let it be said, should have every decision he makes about an outfielder be thoroughly questioned - didn't think so, and sent Trout to continue his apprenticeship at a level where he seemingly has nothing left to learn. What has Trout done there? Why, the same thing he did every night - try to take over the wo.... errr, make AA pitchers feel bad about themselves. In 41 post-demotion plate appearances, he is batting .343/.439/.543, with 3 doubles, 2 triples, 4 steals and 6 walks.
Let me say this definitively. Mike Trout is ready for AAA.
The Angels keeping Trout in AA doesn't just stunt his progress, it stunts theirs as an organization. Most likely, Trout will be a major league callup in September. Wouldn't a month of facing AAA pitching - a major step up from AA for a variety of reasons, most notably the ability of pitchers to throw off-speed pitches for strikes - better prepare Trout to contribute when he does? If there IS a flaw in his game that AAA pitchers could expose, isn't working it out now, rather than next season, the best bet? If he dominates at AAA as well, doesn't he have to be considered a starter next year, to heck with how much money they owe Vernon Wells (who happens to have the worst OBP in the major leagues)?
The Angels, for all the dumb things they do like not playing Mike Napoli and trading Mike Napoli, have won a lot of games the last 10 years. The biggest reason they've won is from contributions from home grown talent. They will need to continue to do so in order to keep up with the Rangers, so it it is worth watching their handling of Mike Trout going forward.
Friday, July 08, 2011
Mike Trout to Join Angels Tonight
The California Angels have announced that Mike Trout has been called up from AA Arkansas. This comes after starting CF Peter Borjous left last night's game with a right hamstring injury. Depending on who you ask, Trout is either the #1 prospect in baseball (Jonathan Mayo, me), or #2 behind Bryce Harper (Baseball America, just about everyone else).
The #25 pick in the 2009 draft out of Millville High School in Millville, NJ, Trout has hit .338/.423/.503 with 97 over 1148 plate appearances across four levels. This year, he has a .324/.415/.534 line in AA, with 12 doubles, 11 triples, 9 home runs and 28 steals - so I think it is fair to call his game "well rounded." Trout appears to be the rare type of dynamic player who combines patience, power AND speed. In addition to that, he plays fantastic defense, and has a great arm as well - he threw 90 as a high school pitcher.
So, what is the upside with Trout? Without exaggeration, it's elite, Hall of Fame level. Anything less than a multiple All-Star teams would be a disappointment. Trout is still only 19, yet there would be no one surprised if he is ready to contribute in a big way right now. With the Angels only a game behind the Rangers in the AL West, even a slight improvement in their outfield situation could make a major difference. Another story that bears watching - if Trout is ready, it may make Peter Bourjos expendable. Bourjos has matched quality defense with an offensive performance that's right about league average. Or, Trout could be moved to left field and start ahead of Vernon Wells. The thought of Bourjos and Trout together in the same outfield likely makes flyball pitchers Dan Haren and Jered Weaver positively giddy.
It's possible that we're getting ahead of ourselves here, of course. Trout doesn't turn 20 until August, and has never played in AAA. After Blake Beaven tonight, the Angels will see Michael Pineda tomorrow and Felix Hernandez tomorrow - not the type of pitchers one routinely faces in AA. (Wait, what was that? Michael Pineda WAS in AA most of last year? Anyway, my point still stands.) It's possible that Trout needs more seasoning and will return to the minors. That would likely be in AAA though, he has little left to prove in AA.
This isn't time to be pessimistic though, or even rational. Angels fans are encouraged to dream of Trout carrying them to the playoffs this year and being the superstar centerpiece to their franchise for the next two decades.
The #25 pick in the 2009 draft out of Millville High School in Millville, NJ, Trout has hit .338/.423/.503 with 97 over 1148 plate appearances across four levels. This year, he has a .324/.415/.534 line in AA, with 12 doubles, 11 triples, 9 home runs and 28 steals - so I think it is fair to call his game "well rounded." Trout appears to be the rare type of dynamic player who combines patience, power AND speed. In addition to that, he plays fantastic defense, and has a great arm as well - he threw 90 as a high school pitcher.
So, what is the upside with Trout? Without exaggeration, it's elite, Hall of Fame level. Anything less than a multiple All-Star teams would be a disappointment. Trout is still only 19, yet there would be no one surprised if he is ready to contribute in a big way right now. With the Angels only a game behind the Rangers in the AL West, even a slight improvement in their outfield situation could make a major difference. Another story that bears watching - if Trout is ready, it may make Peter Bourjos expendable. Bourjos has matched quality defense with an offensive performance that's right about league average. Or, Trout could be moved to left field and start ahead of Vernon Wells. The thought of Bourjos and Trout together in the same outfield likely makes flyball pitchers Dan Haren and Jered Weaver positively giddy.
It's possible that we're getting ahead of ourselves here, of course. Trout doesn't turn 20 until August, and has never played in AAA. After Blake Beaven tonight, the Angels will see Michael Pineda tomorrow and Felix Hernandez tomorrow - not the type of pitchers one routinely faces in AA. (Wait, what was that? Michael Pineda WAS in AA most of last year? Anyway, my point still stands.) It's possible that Trout needs more seasoning and will return to the minors. That would likely be in AAA though, he has little left to prove in AA.
This isn't time to be pessimistic though, or even rational. Angels fans are encouraged to dream of Trout carrying them to the playoffs this year and being the superstar centerpiece to their franchise for the next two decades.
Wednesday, June 15, 2011
Mid-week Musings Around the American League
So, there's a lot going on around the league, but I don't have a single topic that lends itself to a full column. So, for your enjoyment, here are stories from each team in the AL.
Boston - Andrew Miller Likely to be Called Up
Multiple sources (including the Boston Globe's Peter Abraham) are reporting that Andrew Miller will be called up from Pawtucket to take a role in the Red Sox starting rotation. Miller had his 4th straight excellent start last night against Charlotte, going 5.1 innings, giving up 5 hits, 1 run, striking out 10, and walking only 1. Four excellent starts doesn't necessarily mean Miller is "fixed," but walking only 3 in his past 25.1 IP is a huge step in the right direction. Convinced that either Miller is ready to help, or that there was a significant chance Miller would choose to opt out of his contract, the Sox appear to be pulling the trigger.
Interestingly, instead of replacing Tim Wakefield, the Sox will go with a six-man rotation for the time being. While this may be the best way to promote Miller while also give Wakefield a useful role, the danger is obviously that Beckett, Lester and Buchholz will be pitching less frequently. History shows that all three have pitched their best on five days (one extra) of rest, but Lester and Buchholz are worse (though with an insignificant sample size) given a sixth day. Therefore, the six man rotation may be sensible when the team is playing every day, but when off days are involved, the Red Sox should be skipping Miller or Wakefield.
New York - Derek Jeter Goes on DL - Yankees Break Out
Talk about the elephant in the room. One game is obviously an insignificant sample size, but if the Yankees offense is sparked by having Brett Gardner - who has a higher OBP, higher SLG, and is significantly faster than Jeter - batting leadoff, the Yankees get to have at least the fifth (sixth? seventh?) really really uncomfortable declining-superstar-who-helped-them-win-championships-but-is-no-longer that-good discussion. Because of his league-high ground ball rate, batting second would be the worst possible spot for Jeter (he'd probably hit into 35 double plays over a full season batting second behind a .340+ OBP guy), so where would they hit him? Sixth? Eighth? Fans who recall the end of Ozzie Smith's career in St. Louis (Smith and Tony LaRussa still will not speak) have a guideline about where this might be going.
Tampa Bay - James Shields Shuts Down Streaking Red Sox
In 2008, Shields appeared to be emerging as one of the best pitchers in the league, even somehow earning the nickname "Big Game James" before the Rays had ever even appeared in a playoff game. The past two years, though, Shields had regressed, with a 4.14 ERA in 2009 and a 5.18 ERA in a 2010 season where he led the AL in hits, home runs and earned runs allowed. His K/BB ratio had stayed excellent, but it's hard to have success allowing a home run once every 6 IP. With his HR rate back down to a sustainable level this year, Shields has a 2.60 ERA and will be hard to leave off of the All-Star Team.
Toronto - Kyle Drabek sent to AAA
The Blue Jays top prospect (and son of the former Cy Young Award Winner), has battled control problems all year. He bottomed out Sunday against the Red Sox, allowing 8 runs, 3 homers and 4 walks in only 4 IP. In three June starts, Drabek lasted only 10 innings, with a 15.30 ERA, .404/.509/.702 line against, with 10 walks and 6 strikeouts. Leading the AL with 52 walks and 10 wild pitches on the season, it's pretty clear what Drabek will be expected to work on.
Doesn't the sound of being sent to Las Vegas to work on control just sound like a bad idea?
Baltimore - Koji Uehara Could be Valuable Trade Bait
Since being converted to a reliever before the 2010 season, Uehara has a 2.69 ERA is 73 IP, with an extremely impressive 92 strikeouts to only 11 walks. With his contract expiring this year, the Orioles will be unlikely to resign him, and he could be a valuable piece for a contender down the stretch.
Buyer beware, though - Uehara has allowed 10 home runs since the start of last season, including 5 in only 29.2 IP this year. This would make me very leery of putting Uehara in a closer role. Still, in a setup role on a team having bullpen problems like Texas or Detroit, Uehara has obvious value.
Detroit - Alex Avila Helping Lead Charge Toward First Place
The Tigers took over sole possession of first place in the AL Central yesterday with a win over the Twins. Justin Verlander was (rightly) the story, bringing a no-hitter into the 7th and finishing with a 2-hit, 12-strikeout complete game shutout. Miguel Cabrera (if Jose Bautista hadn't turned into some sort of superhuman, he'd be the best hitter in the AL) has gotten the bulk of the attention, but 24-year old catcher Alex Avila has been fantastic, with a .296/.355/.545 batting line, including .347/.382/.592 in his last 14 games (in which the Tigers have gone 10-4).
Proving, once again, that the fan voters are often smarter than they receive credit for, Avila is 2nd among AL catchers in All Star voting. With leader Russell Martin potentially going on the disabled list, Avila may have a chance to move up.
Cleveland - Indians fall out of First Place, Possibly Because Everyone on their Team isn't Playing Well
That's only a slight exaggeration - it just seems that way. Asdrubal Cabrera, for example is doing quite well. Chris Perez has been arguably the best closer in the league, non-Rivera division. Justin Masterson, after starting off at 5-0, has failed to win any of his last 9 starts. In those nine starts though, he has a very respectable 3.69 ERA over 61 innings, with 43 K, 21 BB, and only 2 HR allowed.
Others are legitimately slumping though. After putting The Dunne Deal fan favorite Good Grady Sizemore on the DL on May 10, the Indians mistakenly activated arch-nemesis Evil Grady Sizemore, who has gone .200/.294/.333 since May 27th. Over the same time frame, Shin-Soo Choo has gone .183/.258/.217. Orlando Cabrera? .176/.192/.196. In his last three starts, Fausto Carmona has a 10.67 ERA. In Josh Tomlin's last four starts, he has a 8.61 ERA, raising his season from 2.41 to 4.14.
Choo is likely to improve, but Sizemore and Carmona have been enigmatic for years now, Cabrera may be finished, and a low-4's ERA seems to be about Tomlin's skill level until he starts allowing fewer home runs.
Overall, this was a team that was playing way over its head, and the law of averages has made itself felt in a hurry.
Chicago - Juan Pierre Should Not Hit Leadoff Anymore
I'm not going to call for a full out benching of the guy, because he can still play LF well (though his defensive stats show him as worse than last year, when he was excellent), and the White Sox aren't exactly busting at the seams with another LF ready to take his place. Still, the White Sox are 6th in the AL in OBP, 6th in SLG, and 9th in runs scored, largely because their batting order is, to say the least, inefficient. To make matters worse, Pierre leads the league with being caught stealing 9 times, against only 10 successful swipes. Adding those 9 outs on the basepaths to the 220 outs Pierre has at the plate, he's been the most prolific out-maker in baseball. Batting in front of Alexei Ramirez, Paul Konerko and Carlos Quentin, the White Sox are doing themselves a disservice not having someone who can consistently get to first base, even if he doesn't stay there. The problem? There is no obvious candidate, unless you believe Brent Lillibridge is for real (I'm skeptical).
If Chicago ever got any consistency from Gordon Beckham, they could have their answer. Based on his career splits so far, he should have a huge second half, but this is the second year in a row Beckham has gotten off to a dreadful start.
Kansas City - Why Not Keep Jeff Francis?
Over at MLBTR, there was an article about what the Royals should do if they become sellers. The obvious response is that a 4th place team with the best farm system in baseball should DEFINITELY be sellers - if they can get sufficient value for veterans who aren't going to be there in 2013, they should definitely do so, even if it lowers their chance of making the playoffs in 2011 from 0.05% down to 0.01%.
One point was about Jeff Francis, who is due to be a free agent after the season and will not meet Type B status to gain the Royals compensation. The thought is that they should trade him, so that they don't lose him for nothing. If the Royals can get anything of value for him, they should probably do it, but there is a value in having an innings-eater type on a young team. He will keep the bullpen from becoming too taxed (he's gone at least 6 IP in all but 3 of 14 starts, which all came consecutively earlier this year), and can probably continue to be a league average pitcher when the team is ready to contend in a couple years. Since their pitching prospects are behind their hitters, and pitching is less projectable than hitting anyway.
Francis is probably good enough to be a 4 or 5 starter on a contender without hurting them too much - putting him in front of a better defense might take half a run off his ERA, since he has so many balls put in play against him. So if a team like St. Louis makes a reasonable offer, the Royals should probably take it. However, if they can't get value there is no harm in letting Francis become Kansas City's version of Bronson Arroyo, delivering acceptable but rarely excellent pitching while the rest of the team develops around him. Better than having Kyle Davies and Sean O'Sullivan start those games, at least.
Justin Morneau Placed on DL
There has been some talk about Morneau recently playing through a shoulder injury, despite the fact that both he, and the Twins have been terrible. Yesterday he was placed on the DL with a strained wright wrist.
I don't know if he hurt his wrist because he was attempting to play through the shoulder injury. I do know that him trying to play, and the Twins LETTING him play while he and the team were both performing so poorly, is really, really, really, really stupid. The Twins gained nothing by allowing to play, and if the the shoulder injury did alter his swing causing him to hurt his wrist (an injury that could have longer-term implications), the Twins have sacrificed long term good, despite having nothing to gain in the short term.
Despite some recent wins, the Twins stink. In order to not stink, they probably need Justin Morneau to be healthy (though they did well in the second half last year without him due to fine performances by Jason Kubel and especially Jim Thome). So why risk having Morneau get more hurt by letting him play through an injury that was clearly hurting his performance, and jeopardize their long term chances? The Twins have done some good things in the Ron Gardenhire era, but this whole situation gets a big fat F-.
Texas - Turning a Useful Setup Man into an Good Starter, Part Deux
My favorite trend in baseball the last two years has been the Rangers willingness to take first CJ Wilson, and now Alexi Ogando, and make them into starting pitchers. It's always disappointing to me when a good young starting pitcher is made into a reliever in order to fill a role, and ends up there for the rest of his career. It happened to Jonathan Papelbon and Jonathan Broxton, and both pitchers seem to be flaming out quickly. There's a pretty in depth study that needs to be done on how and why starting pitchers have longer careers than relievers - is it consistency of work, or the fact they focus more on developing new pitches making their career less likely to be derailed by a loss in velocity, or what, but most guys do not turn into Mariano Rivera or Trevor Hoffman.
So, what will happen with Neftali Feliz? If nothing else, he's in an organization that could be willing to give him a chance to start. Despite getting hit hard last night (a BABIP correction was probably due anyway), Ogando is still in the top 10 in several categories - 7th in ERA (3rd in ERA+, Texas is a tough place to pitch, remember), 7th in BB/9, 9th in K/BB, 3rd in WHIP, 4th in H/9. CJ Wilson, last years conversion project, has made improvements to his strikeout and walk rates, making his chances for sustained success all the more likely. Feliz has better stuff than both those guys. Maybe I'm being selfish here, but I always feel a big gypped as a fan when someone who could potentially be excellent as a starter doesn't get thahttp://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gift chance. I'd hate to be sitting here in five years, talking about Feliz flaming out as a reliever and wondering what might have happened if he'd become a starter when he had the chance.
Seattle - Call up Ackley, Already
Seriously, this is getting silly. In the last two days, he's 5 for 9 with 2 walks and a double. Their top prospect is hitting .300/.418/.487 at AAA while they have the worst offense in the league. They score more than 3 runs about once a week. What's the delay? Even if he's Alfonso Soriano-level awful at 2B, he might be the best hitter on the Mariners, right now. Except for the fact he's not on the Mariners yet, he's in Tacoma. I'm not even a Mariner fan, and this is driving me bonkers.
Weaver and Haren are the best 1-2 Combo in the AL
By Baseball-Reference.com calcaulations, the Angels, as a team, have 18.6 WAR. Weaver and Haren have 6.2 of that. Both rank in the top 5 in just about every major category, and both are workhorses - barring some injury, this will be Weaver's third consecutive 200 IP season, and Haren's seventh. Two guys like that will make up for a lot of other holes - if the Angels can find a way to build their offense to even average levels, they'll be a serious contender again. At 3.74 R/G though, they're 12th in the AL in runs scored.
How patient will they be with Mike Trout? They have the worst hitting outfield in baseball, and Trout is raking at a .330/.434/.565 clip at AA Arkansas, with increased power. His speed makes him even more dangerous - he has 23 steals, and has scored in 50 of the 108 times he's been on base. I'd listen to an argument that Trout, not Bryce Harper (who is 14 months younger but two levels lower), is baseball's #1 prospect.
(Note: I just saw the news of Scott Kazmir likely being released. This deserves its own post, and will get one in the next couple of days).
Oakland - What Happens When Your Hitters Can't Hit and Pitchers Can't Stay Healthy
You make me look like an idiot, that's what. I picked the A's to win the division before the season, mostly because I liked their pitching. It turned out that their pitchers were as good as I'd hoped before getting hurt, but it didn't matter - I think 1999 Pedro Martinez would have ended up 12-14 for this team. Their offense is putrid. Abysmal. Deplorable. Pick up a thesaurus, any of these words will do. Unlike the Mariners and Angels, who have had some standout performers brought down by other players having horrendous season, the A's lineup has generally been bad across the board. They have one qualified hitter with an OBP over .330 (Conor Jackson, .335) and one with an SLG over .400 (Josh Willingham, .417).
Unless "guys who aren't good at hitting" is the resource that Billy Beane recognized as being undervalued by the market, something has gone awry with his Moneyball approach. Since 2004, Oakland has now made the playoffs exactly one time, and it's fair to question Beane's status as one of the better GMs in baseball. I don't doubt his intelligence, and I respect his willingness to think outside the box, but the results haven't been there for too long to continue giving him a free pass.
Boston - Andrew Miller Likely to be Called Up
Multiple sources (including the Boston Globe's Peter Abraham) are reporting that Andrew Miller will be called up from Pawtucket to take a role in the Red Sox starting rotation. Miller had his 4th straight excellent start last night against Charlotte, going 5.1 innings, giving up 5 hits, 1 run, striking out 10, and walking only 1. Four excellent starts doesn't necessarily mean Miller is "fixed," but walking only 3 in his past 25.1 IP is a huge step in the right direction. Convinced that either Miller is ready to help, or that there was a significant chance Miller would choose to opt out of his contract, the Sox appear to be pulling the trigger.
Interestingly, instead of replacing Tim Wakefield, the Sox will go with a six-man rotation for the time being. While this may be the best way to promote Miller while also give Wakefield a useful role, the danger is obviously that Beckett, Lester and Buchholz will be pitching less frequently. History shows that all three have pitched their best on five days (one extra) of rest, but Lester and Buchholz are worse (though with an insignificant sample size) given a sixth day. Therefore, the six man rotation may be sensible when the team is playing every day, but when off days are involved, the Red Sox should be skipping Miller or Wakefield.
New York - Derek Jeter Goes on DL - Yankees Break Out
Talk about the elephant in the room. One game is obviously an insignificant sample size, but if the Yankees offense is sparked by having Brett Gardner - who has a higher OBP, higher SLG, and is significantly faster than Jeter - batting leadoff, the Yankees get to have at least the fifth (sixth? seventh?) really really uncomfortable declining-superstar-who-helped-them-win-championships-but-is-no-longer that-good discussion. Because of his league-high ground ball rate, batting second would be the worst possible spot for Jeter (he'd probably hit into 35 double plays over a full season batting second behind a .340+ OBP guy), so where would they hit him? Sixth? Eighth? Fans who recall the end of Ozzie Smith's career in St. Louis (Smith and Tony LaRussa still will not speak) have a guideline about where this might be going.
Tampa Bay - James Shields Shuts Down Streaking Red Sox
In 2008, Shields appeared to be emerging as one of the best pitchers in the league, even somehow earning the nickname "Big Game James" before the Rays had ever even appeared in a playoff game. The past two years, though, Shields had regressed, with a 4.14 ERA in 2009 and a 5.18 ERA in a 2010 season where he led the AL in hits, home runs and earned runs allowed. His K/BB ratio had stayed excellent, but it's hard to have success allowing a home run once every 6 IP. With his HR rate back down to a sustainable level this year, Shields has a 2.60 ERA and will be hard to leave off of the All-Star Team.
Toronto - Kyle Drabek sent to AAA
The Blue Jays top prospect (and son of the former Cy Young Award Winner), has battled control problems all year. He bottomed out Sunday against the Red Sox, allowing 8 runs, 3 homers and 4 walks in only 4 IP. In three June starts, Drabek lasted only 10 innings, with a 15.30 ERA, .404/.509/.702 line against, with 10 walks and 6 strikeouts. Leading the AL with 52 walks and 10 wild pitches on the season, it's pretty clear what Drabek will be expected to work on.
Doesn't the sound of being sent to Las Vegas to work on control just sound like a bad idea?
Baltimore - Koji Uehara Could be Valuable Trade Bait
Since being converted to a reliever before the 2010 season, Uehara has a 2.69 ERA is 73 IP, with an extremely impressive 92 strikeouts to only 11 walks. With his contract expiring this year, the Orioles will be unlikely to resign him, and he could be a valuable piece for a contender down the stretch.
Buyer beware, though - Uehara has allowed 10 home runs since the start of last season, including 5 in only 29.2 IP this year. This would make me very leery of putting Uehara in a closer role. Still, in a setup role on a team having bullpen problems like Texas or Detroit, Uehara has obvious value.
Detroit - Alex Avila Helping Lead Charge Toward First Place
The Tigers took over sole possession of first place in the AL Central yesterday with a win over the Twins. Justin Verlander was (rightly) the story, bringing a no-hitter into the 7th and finishing with a 2-hit, 12-strikeout complete game shutout. Miguel Cabrera (if Jose Bautista hadn't turned into some sort of superhuman, he'd be the best hitter in the AL) has gotten the bulk of the attention, but 24-year old catcher Alex Avila has been fantastic, with a .296/.355/.545 batting line, including .347/.382/.592 in his last 14 games (in which the Tigers have gone 10-4).
Proving, once again, that the fan voters are often smarter than they receive credit for, Avila is 2nd among AL catchers in All Star voting. With leader Russell Martin potentially going on the disabled list, Avila may have a chance to move up.
Cleveland - Indians fall out of First Place, Possibly Because Everyone on their Team isn't Playing Well
That's only a slight exaggeration - it just seems that way. Asdrubal Cabrera, for example is doing quite well. Chris Perez has been arguably the best closer in the league, non-Rivera division. Justin Masterson, after starting off at 5-0, has failed to win any of his last 9 starts. In those nine starts though, he has a very respectable 3.69 ERA over 61 innings, with 43 K, 21 BB, and only 2 HR allowed.
Others are legitimately slumping though. After putting The Dunne Deal fan favorite Good Grady Sizemore on the DL on May 10, the Indians mistakenly activated arch-nemesis Evil Grady Sizemore, who has gone .200/.294/.333 since May 27th. Over the same time frame, Shin-Soo Choo has gone .183/.258/.217. Orlando Cabrera? .176/.192/.196. In his last three starts, Fausto Carmona has a 10.67 ERA. In Josh Tomlin's last four starts, he has a 8.61 ERA, raising his season from 2.41 to 4.14.
Choo is likely to improve, but Sizemore and Carmona have been enigmatic for years now, Cabrera may be finished, and a low-4's ERA seems to be about Tomlin's skill level until he starts allowing fewer home runs.
Overall, this was a team that was playing way over its head, and the law of averages has made itself felt in a hurry.
Chicago - Juan Pierre Should Not Hit Leadoff Anymore
I'm not going to call for a full out benching of the guy, because he can still play LF well (though his defensive stats show him as worse than last year, when he was excellent), and the White Sox aren't exactly busting at the seams with another LF ready to take his place. Still, the White Sox are 6th in the AL in OBP, 6th in SLG, and 9th in runs scored, largely because their batting order is, to say the least, inefficient. To make matters worse, Pierre leads the league with being caught stealing 9 times, against only 10 successful swipes. Adding those 9 outs on the basepaths to the 220 outs Pierre has at the plate, he's been the most prolific out-maker in baseball. Batting in front of Alexei Ramirez, Paul Konerko and Carlos Quentin, the White Sox are doing themselves a disservice not having someone who can consistently get to first base, even if he doesn't stay there. The problem? There is no obvious candidate, unless you believe Brent Lillibridge is for real (I'm skeptical).
If Chicago ever got any consistency from Gordon Beckham, they could have their answer. Based on his career splits so far, he should have a huge second half, but this is the second year in a row Beckham has gotten off to a dreadful start.
Kansas City - Why Not Keep Jeff Francis?
Over at MLBTR, there was an article about what the Royals should do if they become sellers. The obvious response is that a 4th place team with the best farm system in baseball should DEFINITELY be sellers - if they can get sufficient value for veterans who aren't going to be there in 2013, they should definitely do so, even if it lowers their chance of making the playoffs in 2011 from 0.05% down to 0.01%.
One point was about Jeff Francis, who is due to be a free agent after the season and will not meet Type B status to gain the Royals compensation. The thought is that they should trade him, so that they don't lose him for nothing. If the Royals can get anything of value for him, they should probably do it, but there is a value in having an innings-eater type on a young team. He will keep the bullpen from becoming too taxed (he's gone at least 6 IP in all but 3 of 14 starts, which all came consecutively earlier this year), and can probably continue to be a league average pitcher when the team is ready to contend in a couple years. Since their pitching prospects are behind their hitters, and pitching is less projectable than hitting anyway.
Francis is probably good enough to be a 4 or 5 starter on a contender without hurting them too much - putting him in front of a better defense might take half a run off his ERA, since he has so many balls put in play against him. So if a team like St. Louis makes a reasonable offer, the Royals should probably take it. However, if they can't get value there is no harm in letting Francis become Kansas City's version of Bronson Arroyo, delivering acceptable but rarely excellent pitching while the rest of the team develops around him. Better than having Kyle Davies and Sean O'Sullivan start those games, at least.
Justin Morneau Placed on DL
There has been some talk about Morneau recently playing through a shoulder injury, despite the fact that both he, and the Twins have been terrible. Yesterday he was placed on the DL with a strained wright wrist.
I don't know if he hurt his wrist because he was attempting to play through the shoulder injury. I do know that him trying to play, and the Twins LETTING him play while he and the team were both performing so poorly, is really, really, really, really stupid. The Twins gained nothing by allowing to play, and if the the shoulder injury did alter his swing causing him to hurt his wrist (an injury that could have longer-term implications), the Twins have sacrificed long term good, despite having nothing to gain in the short term.
Despite some recent wins, the Twins stink. In order to not stink, they probably need Justin Morneau to be healthy (though they did well in the second half last year without him due to fine performances by Jason Kubel and especially Jim Thome). So why risk having Morneau get more hurt by letting him play through an injury that was clearly hurting his performance, and jeopardize their long term chances? The Twins have done some good things in the Ron Gardenhire era, but this whole situation gets a big fat F-.
Texas - Turning a Useful Setup Man into an Good Starter, Part Deux
My favorite trend in baseball the last two years has been the Rangers willingness to take first CJ Wilson, and now Alexi Ogando, and make them into starting pitchers. It's always disappointing to me when a good young starting pitcher is made into a reliever in order to fill a role, and ends up there for the rest of his career. It happened to Jonathan Papelbon and Jonathan Broxton, and both pitchers seem to be flaming out quickly. There's a pretty in depth study that needs to be done on how and why starting pitchers have longer careers than relievers - is it consistency of work, or the fact they focus more on developing new pitches making their career less likely to be derailed by a loss in velocity, or what, but most guys do not turn into Mariano Rivera or Trevor Hoffman.
So, what will happen with Neftali Feliz? If nothing else, he's in an organization that could be willing to give him a chance to start. Despite getting hit hard last night (a BABIP correction was probably due anyway), Ogando is still in the top 10 in several categories - 7th in ERA (3rd in ERA+, Texas is a tough place to pitch, remember), 7th in BB/9, 9th in K/BB, 3rd in WHIP, 4th in H/9. CJ Wilson, last years conversion project, has made improvements to his strikeout and walk rates, making his chances for sustained success all the more likely. Feliz has better stuff than both those guys. Maybe I'm being selfish here, but I always feel a big gypped as a fan when someone who could potentially be excellent as a starter doesn't get thahttp://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gift chance. I'd hate to be sitting here in five years, talking about Feliz flaming out as a reliever and wondering what might have happened if he'd become a starter when he had the chance.
Seattle - Call up Ackley, Already
Seriously, this is getting silly. In the last two days, he's 5 for 9 with 2 walks and a double. Their top prospect is hitting .300/.418/.487 at AAA while they have the worst offense in the league. They score more than 3 runs about once a week. What's the delay? Even if he's Alfonso Soriano-level awful at 2B, he might be the best hitter on the Mariners, right now. Except for the fact he's not on the Mariners yet, he's in Tacoma. I'm not even a Mariner fan, and this is driving me bonkers.
Weaver and Haren are the best 1-2 Combo in the AL
By Baseball-Reference.com calcaulations, the Angels, as a team, have 18.6 WAR. Weaver and Haren have 6.2 of that. Both rank in the top 5 in just about every major category, and both are workhorses - barring some injury, this will be Weaver's third consecutive 200 IP season, and Haren's seventh. Two guys like that will make up for a lot of other holes - if the Angels can find a way to build their offense to even average levels, they'll be a serious contender again. At 3.74 R/G though, they're 12th in the AL in runs scored.
How patient will they be with Mike Trout? They have the worst hitting outfield in baseball, and Trout is raking at a .330/.434/.565 clip at AA Arkansas, with increased power. His speed makes him even more dangerous - he has 23 steals, and has scored in 50 of the 108 times he's been on base. I'd listen to an argument that Trout, not Bryce Harper (who is 14 months younger but two levels lower), is baseball's #1 prospect.
(Note: I just saw the news of Scott Kazmir likely being released. This deserves its own post, and will get one in the next couple of days).
Oakland - What Happens When Your Hitters Can't Hit and Pitchers Can't Stay Healthy
You make me look like an idiot, that's what. I picked the A's to win the division before the season, mostly because I liked their pitching. It turned out that their pitchers were as good as I'd hoped before getting hurt, but it didn't matter - I think 1999 Pedro Martinez would have ended up 12-14 for this team. Their offense is putrid. Abysmal. Deplorable. Pick up a thesaurus, any of these words will do. Unlike the Mariners and Angels, who have had some standout performers brought down by other players having horrendous season, the A's lineup has generally been bad across the board. They have one qualified hitter with an OBP over .330 (Conor Jackson, .335) and one with an SLG over .400 (Josh Willingham, .417).
Unless "guys who aren't good at hitting" is the resource that Billy Beane recognized as being undervalued by the market, something has gone awry with his Moneyball approach. Since 2004, Oakland has now made the playoffs exactly one time, and it's fair to question Beane's status as one of the better GMs in baseball. I don't doubt his intelligence, and I respect his willingness to think outside the box, but the results haven't been there for too long to continue giving him a free pass.
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