It's hard to win every year. The Boston Red Sox haven't had a losing season since 1997, and won the World Series a mere 15 months ago. Reading their newspapers and listening to their fans though, it doesn't seem to be enough. The idea that they could possibly finish in third place one year led to radio talkshow hosts and newspaper writers ripping the team for tearing apart the ballclub, and most recently, for losing their star center fielder.
When Johnny Damon left, the Red Sox were left with a gaping hole in centerfield. They were supposedly on the verge of getting Jeremy Reed from the Mariners when the Damon signing was announced, at which point, it seems the M's upped their price. Since then, super-prospect Andy Marte's name was thrown around in every deal imaginable until yesterday, when he, catcher Kelly Shoppach, pitcher Guillermo Mota and a player to be named later were shipped to Cleveland for CF Coco Crisp, C Josh Bard and P David Riske.
While centerfield was a legitimate need for Boston, and it was filled, this trade reeks of being a panic deal. The Boston front office didn't think they could sell their team as rebuilding. How could a team with a $115M payroll be rebuilding? Of course they should be competitive every year, as the thinking seems to go.
The Red Sox will be competitive this year, and, with their resources, should continue to be competitive. As a friend said to me earlier, there's a fine line between trying to be competitive every year, and targeting a year to win. Instead of being competitive though, this team had the chance to put together a team that would be great, with Marte at the forefront and been a legit title contender from 2007 going forward.
Really, to call Marte a prospect is a bit of a misnomer. He'd have been in the majors on nearly any team by midseason last year if the Braves didn't have Chipper Jones in front of him. He hit .275/.372/.506 22 homers in 389 AAA AB's last year, while, at 21, he was also one of the younger players in the league. People scoffed that he was unproven, but minor league numbers for hitters tend to translate very well to the major league level. To boot, Marte was rated the #1 prospect in all of baseball by Baseball Prospectus before the 2005 season: "Marte has that rare combination of high upside and low risk. No one else on this (top prospect) list has that."
Crisp is undoubtedly a useful outfielder, but he's a bit of a tweener. He's not a good defensive centerfielder, but his hitting stats aren't really strong enough for him to be a plus corner guy. At center, his bat will be a plus, and it's not impossible that he'll outproduce the man he's replacing in 2006, and fairly likely that he'll be the better player a couple years down the road. Still, his star potential is low, while Marte's is through the roof.
When making a trade, teams tend to deal from their strengths. Boston completely neglected that. They're an old team, with no power potential in the high minors, and an overstock of mid-rotation starters. It seems hard to believe that they wouldn't have been able to find a replacement level placeholder for a guy like David Wells or Matt Clement, to tide them over until next offseason.
Which brings us to why the trade was such a mistake for Boston. After 2006, they won't have Mike Lowell's contract on, as well as Trot Nixon's. There are always good outfielders available, and almost never very good 3B. By keeping Marte in place, they'd have had a cheap, productive player (and, possibly a cheap STAR player), who wouldn't even be eligible for a raise until 2009. When you have cheap players at key positions, you can go out and buy a Cliff Floyd, and, when you have the Red Sox pockets, you can even overpay a little for him.
Cleveland meanwhile, is smiling from ear to ear. They added a LF in the highly underrated Jason Michaels, a 30 year career backup with a lifetime .291/.380/.442 line in 808 AB's. If he can maintain close to that OBP, then he could actually be an upgrade over Crisp, who posted a career-high of .345 last year. More importantly, they can take Aaron Boone, an absolute out machine in 2005 (.299 OBP) and replace him with a young stud of a 3B in Marte.
As far as the other players are concerned, Riske is a better pitcher than Mota, though Francona's ability to handle a bullpen is an open question, and the Indians have depth in their bullpen, as well as starters who go deep into games. The catcher exchange is almost laughable. The Red Sox apparently wanted a "proven veteran" to be their backup catcher, while the Indians seem to be more interested in having someone who is a good baseball player as theirs. Shoppach's not a top prospect, but his upside is Javy Lopez before his inexplicable late career power surge. Bard's upside is that he could beat out John Flaherty for the chance to catch Tim Wakefield, and hit as high as .240 with no walks or power. That's not entirely fair, as Bard does have an excellent defensive reputation, and is a fairly capable backup as long as your starter never gets hurt. Shoppach, however, won't embarrass himself if the Indians are without Victor Martinez for an extended period, and could be leveraged into a pitcher at midseason.
All things considered, with Crisp solidifying CF, the Red Sox should win around 90 games. If Schilling and Beckett both stay healthy, and Papelbon is allowed to start, they could take the division. The Indians though, now have to be considered the favorites in the American league. They had the best run differential in the American League last year, with a young improving team that rocketed in the second half thanks largely to guys like Victor Martinez and Grady Sizemore. They upgraded third base substantially, didn't take a major downgrade at any position, and many of their young players are good bets to continue improving. The AL Central is a tough division, but these guys were the class of it going in, and they're even better now.
Saturday, January 28, 2006
Friday, January 13, 2006
Quick Hits
I haven't updated in quite some time, so I figured I'd throw some random notes from the last couple weeks up there.
Cincinnati Reds sign P Grant Balfour to a 1-year contract for 340,000.
Balfour is hardly front-page news, and pitching for the Reds, the impact will be minimal. It's compounded by the fact that he is likely to miss the first half of 2006 after missing all of 2005 with reconstructive elbow surgery. Still, considering the going rate for useful pitchers, finding one that is above league average for the league minimum is an inspired move. In 65 innings over his last two years, Balfour has a 4.27 ERA, pitching in one of the tougher pitchers parks out there, translating to an ERA+ of 110. He's also struck out 72 batters in that time. His record is really only tempered by control concerns (he walked 35 in those two seasons). While the sample size is small, he has a history of success in the minors as well, notably in 2003 when he had a 2.41 ERA and a 87/16 K/BB ratio at Triple A Rochester.
Balfour has an injury history, but what is the risk vs. reward here? If he can't come back, or can't pitch as well when he does, the Reds will be merely out of the league minimum salary, and it's not like giving him the innings to find out is going to cost them in the standings in a big way. If he does pitch well, it's a complete bonus, and he will still be Reds property through 2008. An inspired signing by a franchise that has a recent history of overpaying for below average talent. Also, a strange nontender by the Twins, who, as a "small-market" team need to be on the lookout the most for cheap talent.
Sammy Sosa is in discussions with the Nationals about a one-year contract.
Anyone here want to try and think of a worse fit than a declining slugger whose single remaining positive is his ability to hit baseballs out of the ballpark, and sticking him in the worst home run hitting park in the majors?
Don't be too surprised if the Nationals great luck from 2005 turns completely around and they are looking up in the standings at the Marlins this coming September. Their chances rest on the health of Nick Johnson, and how many at-bats they can give Ryan Zimmerman.
Kevin Millar signs a one-year, $2.1M contract with the Baltimore Orioles.
On the one hand, he's a slow, poor defensive first baseman who is clearly in his decline phase. On the positive, he's a guy who can still hit a fastball. His value is no longer as an everyday player, and Terry Francona's insistence on playing him every day very nearly cost the Red Sox a playoff spot. On the other hand, in a division that seems to be stocking up on fastballers, Millar has a place, if Perlozzo has some ingenuity. As part of a standard righty/lefty platoon, Millar will be useless--he historically hits righties much better than lefties. If they can platoon him with a guy who can hit the softtossers in the league, play a good defense, and run the bases acceptably well, then Millar could actually help the Orioles. Interestingly enough, that description applies to Jeff Conine, also recently signed by the Orioles. They're not going to combine to be Albert Pujols, but with the Orioles getting big offensive production from sources that other teams do not (2B and SS), they merely need to be passable at 1B. If the cards break well, Conine and Millar are more than passable.
Cincinnati Reds sign P Grant Balfour to a 1-year contract for 340,000.
Balfour is hardly front-page news, and pitching for the Reds, the impact will be minimal. It's compounded by the fact that he is likely to miss the first half of 2006 after missing all of 2005 with reconstructive elbow surgery. Still, considering the going rate for useful pitchers, finding one that is above league average for the league minimum is an inspired move. In 65 innings over his last two years, Balfour has a 4.27 ERA, pitching in one of the tougher pitchers parks out there, translating to an ERA+ of 110. He's also struck out 72 batters in that time. His record is really only tempered by control concerns (he walked 35 in those two seasons). While the sample size is small, he has a history of success in the minors as well, notably in 2003 when he had a 2.41 ERA and a 87/16 K/BB ratio at Triple A Rochester.
Balfour has an injury history, but what is the risk vs. reward here? If he can't come back, or can't pitch as well when he does, the Reds will be merely out of the league minimum salary, and it's not like giving him the innings to find out is going to cost them in the standings in a big way. If he does pitch well, it's a complete bonus, and he will still be Reds property through 2008. An inspired signing by a franchise that has a recent history of overpaying for below average talent. Also, a strange nontender by the Twins, who, as a "small-market" team need to be on the lookout the most for cheap talent.
Sammy Sosa is in discussions with the Nationals about a one-year contract.
Anyone here want to try and think of a worse fit than a declining slugger whose single remaining positive is his ability to hit baseballs out of the ballpark, and sticking him in the worst home run hitting park in the majors?
Don't be too surprised if the Nationals great luck from 2005 turns completely around and they are looking up in the standings at the Marlins this coming September. Their chances rest on the health of Nick Johnson, and how many at-bats they can give Ryan Zimmerman.
Kevin Millar signs a one-year, $2.1M contract with the Baltimore Orioles.
On the one hand, he's a slow, poor defensive first baseman who is clearly in his decline phase. On the positive, he's a guy who can still hit a fastball. His value is no longer as an everyday player, and Terry Francona's insistence on playing him every day very nearly cost the Red Sox a playoff spot. On the other hand, in a division that seems to be stocking up on fastballers, Millar has a place, if Perlozzo has some ingenuity. As part of a standard righty/lefty platoon, Millar will be useless--he historically hits righties much better than lefties. If they can platoon him with a guy who can hit the softtossers in the league, play a good defense, and run the bases acceptably well, then Millar could actually help the Orioles. Interestingly enough, that description applies to Jeff Conine, also recently signed by the Orioles. They're not going to combine to be Albert Pujols, but with the Orioles getting big offensive production from sources that other teams do not (2B and SS), they merely need to be passable at 1B. If the cards break well, Conine and Millar are more than passable.
Thursday, December 22, 2005
A blessing in disguise?
The world is ending. The sky is falling. The Yankees have taken the Red Sox star center fielder. They're now guarenteed to have the best record in baseball, and drive the Red Sox into the ground. If you've listened to any of the talk radio the last couple of days, that's what you'd think, anyway.
As all of you already know, the Yankees signed CF Johnny Damon to a four year deal worth $52M. That's a little less money than Albert Pujols is making, but more than Vlad Guerrero and Miguel Tejada. At a price like that, how could the Red Sox let him get away? Yet we keep hearing thinks like "That Larry Lucchino dragged his feet, and he's running the team into the ground. If Epstein was around, he'd have found a way to keep Johnny."
Really, it's much less complicated than that. The Red Sox simply didn't think Damon was worth $52M for four years. Can you blame them? The Sox offered him 4 years, $40M. They didn't drag their feet. They had their offer, they knew what they wanted to spend, and Damon got more elsewhere.
As a baseball move, Damon was a 32 year old who, from his all-out style of play, seems to keep coming down with nagging injuries. He's a wildly overrated defensive centerfielder--he's likely not even average. Slghtly below average is an upgrade over the dreck that the Yankees had in center in 2005, but it's not like Damon is going to get better. He's not nearly as fast as he was in 2002, and he can't throw the ball to the cutoff man in the air.
If the Sox DO get Jeremy Reed, which seems to be getting treated as a formality at this point, they're actually getting an upgrade defensively, and probably won't downgrade nearly as much with the bat as people seem to think:
Road stats in 2005:
Reed: 244 AB's: .254/.328/.377, 3 HR, 15 2B, 27 BB
Damon: 322 AB's: .298/.342/.438, 7 HR, 16 2Bs, 21 BB
So Reed, a 24 year old who isn't arbitration eligible, who had a disappointing season by most accounts, had a higher walk rate, and a higher rate of doubles, in games played in neutral parks than Damon, a 32 year old.
Plus, Reed was ranked the #2 prospect in baseball in 2004's baseball prospectus. This is a guy who hit over .400 in over 200 AB's in Double A in 2003, and hit .397 in his cup of tea in the majors (50-odd AB's) in 2004.
So it seems to me that Reed is a guy who is subject to high variations in his battinng average. .250 seems right about the lower bound of what he'd do. More likely, he'll hit between .270-.290, and if he does, with his better walk rate, better doubles rate, and better defense, he'll be roughly as valuable as Damon will be if Damon hits .310-.320. And if Damon hits .280, you're going to have a lot of ticked off Yankee fans, wondering why the Red Sox are scoring significantly more runs than their superstar lineup.
The Red Sox we've seen in the past would've thrown the money at Damon, the aging superstar. Just like they threw money at Jack Clark, Andre Dawson, and so many other players who were on their downside in the '80's and '90's. They wouldn't have looked at a guy like Jeremy Reed, whose low batting average makes him look undesirable, and hides a lot of his value.
As far as from the Yankees standpoint, Damon is clearly an upgrade for right now. Center field has been a weakness for the Yankees for three years now. Damon should lead to more value for them almost by accident. One more thing to keep an eye on though: Damon has a career .252/.301/.346 line in Yankee Stadium in the regular season. Granted, that doesn't include Game 7 of the ALCS, and a few of those AB's came in before Damon's run with the Sox, when the Yankees had a lot of good pitching. Still, it's something to note.
Sure, it's possible that Damon will love New York. Maybe he'll love the nightlife, and being able to make a weekly appearance on the Today Show. Maybe the Sox don't even get Reed. Maybe they're stuck trying to revitalize Corey Patterson. Maybe they do get Reed and his power never develops. Either way, Johnny Damon is getting to the point where he's going to be a higher risk, lower reward player, and by 2008 the Yankees could have a player pretty similar to Bernie Williams the last couple years, only with less power.
As all of you already know, the Yankees signed CF Johnny Damon to a four year deal worth $52M. That's a little less money than Albert Pujols is making, but more than Vlad Guerrero and Miguel Tejada. At a price like that, how could the Red Sox let him get away? Yet we keep hearing thinks like "That Larry Lucchino dragged his feet, and he's running the team into the ground. If Epstein was around, he'd have found a way to keep Johnny."
Really, it's much less complicated than that. The Red Sox simply didn't think Damon was worth $52M for four years. Can you blame them? The Sox offered him 4 years, $40M. They didn't drag their feet. They had their offer, they knew what they wanted to spend, and Damon got more elsewhere.
As a baseball move, Damon was a 32 year old who, from his all-out style of play, seems to keep coming down with nagging injuries. He's a wildly overrated defensive centerfielder--he's likely not even average. Slghtly below average is an upgrade over the dreck that the Yankees had in center in 2005, but it's not like Damon is going to get better. He's not nearly as fast as he was in 2002, and he can't throw the ball to the cutoff man in the air.
If the Sox DO get Jeremy Reed, which seems to be getting treated as a formality at this point, they're actually getting an upgrade defensively, and probably won't downgrade nearly as much with the bat as people seem to think:
Road stats in 2005:
Reed: 244 AB's: .254/.328/.377, 3 HR, 15 2B, 27 BB
Damon: 322 AB's: .298/.342/.438, 7 HR, 16 2Bs, 21 BB
So Reed, a 24 year old who isn't arbitration eligible, who had a disappointing season by most accounts, had a higher walk rate, and a higher rate of doubles, in games played in neutral parks than Damon, a 32 year old.
Plus, Reed was ranked the #2 prospect in baseball in 2004's baseball prospectus. This is a guy who hit over .400 in over 200 AB's in Double A in 2003, and hit .397 in his cup of tea in the majors (50-odd AB's) in 2004.
So it seems to me that Reed is a guy who is subject to high variations in his battinng average. .250 seems right about the lower bound of what he'd do. More likely, he'll hit between .270-.290, and if he does, with his better walk rate, better doubles rate, and better defense, he'll be roughly as valuable as Damon will be if Damon hits .310-.320. And if Damon hits .280, you're going to have a lot of ticked off Yankee fans, wondering why the Red Sox are scoring significantly more runs than their superstar lineup.
The Red Sox we've seen in the past would've thrown the money at Damon, the aging superstar. Just like they threw money at Jack Clark, Andre Dawson, and so many other players who were on their downside in the '80's and '90's. They wouldn't have looked at a guy like Jeremy Reed, whose low batting average makes him look undesirable, and hides a lot of his value.
As far as from the Yankees standpoint, Damon is clearly an upgrade for right now. Center field has been a weakness for the Yankees for three years now. Damon should lead to more value for them almost by accident. One more thing to keep an eye on though: Damon has a career .252/.301/.346 line in Yankee Stadium in the regular season. Granted, that doesn't include Game 7 of the ALCS, and a few of those AB's came in before Damon's run with the Sox, when the Yankees had a lot of good pitching. Still, it's something to note.
Sure, it's possible that Damon will love New York. Maybe he'll love the nightlife, and being able to make a weekly appearance on the Today Show. Maybe the Sox don't even get Reed. Maybe they're stuck trying to revitalize Corey Patterson. Maybe they do get Reed and his power never develops. Either way, Johnny Damon is getting to the point where he's going to be a higher risk, lower reward player, and by 2008 the Yankees could have a player pretty similar to Bernie Williams the last couple years, only with less power.
Wednesday, November 30, 2005
Aggressive offseason moves
11/30/05
Hope everyone had a good Thanksgiving. Some big moves the last couple of weeks, so let's get to a couple of them.
Marlins trade P Josh Beckett, 3B Mike Lowell and P Guillermo Mota to Boston for SS Hanley Ramirez and P's Anibal Sanchez, Jesus Delgado and Harvey Garcia
Certainly a big move by the Red Sox, but one they probably have to make if they have any plans of being a big competitor this year. With Curt Schilling's status still in question, and a bunch of mid-rotation guys filling out the rotation, the Sox needed to go out and get an ace pitcher. With the free agent market littered with the second tier types that Boston already had in spades, going the route of the trade was the only way they were going to get a top guy. The question is, did they get one?
Everyone knows about Beckett's huge postseason in 2003, knocking off the Cubs in the NLCS, and shutting down the Yankees in the Bronx. His regular season career has been considered a bit of a disappointment though. 2005 was the first year that the former #2 draft pick even reached double digit wins, as well as the first year he surpassed 160 innings.
Beckett, though, hasn't suffered from the usual arm problems that plague young pitchers. His problem has been with blisters on the middle finger of his pitching hand. It's certainly been a frustrating problem, but if the Red Sox can solve the problem, or pitching in the colder weather relieves it at all, then the low innings count that Beckett has logged to this point becomes a positive. His arm should be through its formulative years without the wear and tear many managers pile on their young pitchers.
So, while he has the chance to put up a lot more innings going forward, the question becomes, how good will those innings be? In 609 big league innings so far, Beckett has a 3.46 ERA. Half of those innings, though, have been logged in pitcher friendly ProPlayer Stadium--on the road, his ERA is a 3.83. Certainly a very good ERA, but not typical of an ace pitcher, and the American League is the harder pitching park. So his ERA doesn't scream "ace starter."
Looking a bit deeper into his numbers though, and there's a LOT to like about Beckett. In those 609 innings, he has 607 strikeouts, 223 walks, and 55 homers allowed. Those aren't just numbers helped by his home stadium. On the road for his career, in 282.1 innings, he has 265 strikeouts, 95 walks, and 29 homers allowed. Just about anyone will be excited about a 25 year old with a strikeout per inning, a K/BB of near 3:1, and a homer allowed about once every 10 innings. So while we can't call Beckett a slam-dunk ace, there's a ton here to like, and if the blister problem is solved, he'll likely be one of the better pitchers in the American League.
Lowell is an interesting case. He's making $18M over the next two years, a lot for a team like Florida to pay, but more than worth it for a team with deep pockets like Boston to get Beckett, who isn't free agent eligible for two more years. Lowell was pretty terrible last year. Common opinion seems to be that he was fighting nagging injuries, but whether they'll continue to nag, and how far back he'll be able to come is an open question. Still, if he can split the difference between his last two years, he'll be at least as productive at the plate as Kevin Millar, while adding top notch third base defense. The Red Sox led baseball in runs scored last year-- their problem was preventing their opponents from scoring just as many. Unfortunately, Lowell isn't a huge upgrade defensively over Bill Mueller at the hot corner. If the Sox can improve their defense at first as well, it'll be a net improvement, but the Red Sox defensive problems last year were more in the outfield than the infield.
The Red Sox added Mota late in the deal, saying they would've called off the whole thing, noting Beckett's injury problems, if the Marlins didn't include Mota. Mota's a nice reliever, but the Red Sox were foolish to make that bluff, and the Marlins did well to pick up an extra pitching prospect in the deal, and shed Mota's salary at the same time. From the Red Sox standpoint, Mota will most likely pitch better than a lot of the guys they ran in from the bullpen last year, but guys like him are always available, and it was risky to endanger getting Beckett.
While you can debate the claims of Marlins management about the need to dump salary, they did a good job getting a good haul of talent in return. Hanley Ramirez is the bigger name prospect, but Anibal Sanchez is the real gem. The 21 year old Sanchez has been tearing through the minors the past two years this year moving from Class A to AA, logging 136 IP, a 2.85 ERA 40 BB, and 158 K's. (!!!!!!) The Red Sox, for the first time in nearly 20 years, had depth to deal from in their organization, and only projected Sanchez as their third best starting prospect, behind Jon Lester and Jonathan Papelbon. Those are some impressive numbers though, and Sanchez projects to be a top guy. He project so well, in fact, that some have criticized the trade, saying that there is a good chance that Sanchez will be a better pitcher in three years than Beckett. While that very well may be true, it is clearly not the goal of the 2006 Red Sox to build a team to win the World Series in 2008. This is a franchise positioning itself to win this year, and every year, and it was smart to deal from what they considered to be a strength.
Hanley Ramirez has been at the top of prospect lists for years, but it has been more for his tools than his actual production. While the Red Sox have been touting him for some time, their actions spoke louder than words, when they signed Edgar Renteria to a $40M contract last offseason, and drafted Dustin Pedroia with their first pick in the 2004 draft. Pedroia moved up the ladder quickly, and will be in the mix at 2B for the Red Sox this year. Ramirez fans liken his progress to Renteria and Orlando Cabrera, while cynics see more of Donnie Sadler.
Delgado and Garcia are both relief pitchers who were considered afterthoughts in the deal, but both had quality years in 2005 in single A. They give the Marlins quality organizational depth, and a couple pitchers who could help them in 2007.
White Sox trade CF Aaron Rowand and P Doug Haigwood to Philadelphia for 1B Jim Thome
This is probably the most surprising move of the offseason so far. The White Sox, touting their team chemistry and defense in the World Series win, trade their popular CF for an aging slugger coming off a major injury.
In the first reports of the trade, it was rumored that Jose Contreras or Brandon McCarthy were going to be the one going to Philadelphia, which would've been a huge steal for the Phils. As it is though, this is one of those trades that could benefit both teams.
The Phillies take on the situation is obvious. They had a logjam at first base, with Rookie of the Year Ryan Howard and Thome, and a hole in centerfield that they tried to fill last season with Kenny Lofton. Rowand is a mediocre hitter who is unlikely to match his 2004 season again. He's a legitimate excellent defensive player, though, and with the Phillies getting plenty of offense from other positions, they can afford to use a lineup spot on a top notch defender at what is fast being recognized as the most important defensive position on the field. It's not like Rowand is a waste of an at-bat either. He fouls off a lot of pitches, and will probably put up an OPS around .750, more than enough for a fielder of his quality.
Haigwood is a 22-year old fireballer with great strikeout numbers. His control can be rocky at times, but he was absolutely lights out after his promotion to AA Birmingham. In 67 innings, he struck out 76, walked 31, and gave up zero homers on his way to a 1.77 ERA. He's a guy to keep an eye on. The White Sox needn't worry though, as they held on to McCarthy, a guy who very well could make a major league impact as soon as this year.
Everyone knows about Jim Thome. The gigantic slugger seemed to be cutting a trail to Cooperstown before he injured his right elbow, leading to a disastrous season. Suddenly, Thome went from a franchise player to a 35 year old backup.
So why would the World Series champions trade Rowand for such a high-risk guy like Thome? Well, for one, it's becoming more and more obvious that Paul Konerko is headed out of town, to one of the coasts. Konerko was the most productive hitter on the team, and not by only a little bit. A healthy Thome could match Konerko's production, even outdo it. However, the chances of Thome ever being the 40 home run hitter he was in 2004 seems unlikely. However, even having an awful season, he still managed a .360 OPB, not up to Thome's old standard, but a nice sign that his batting eye is still intact. It's not hard to imagining Thome putting 50 points back on to his batting average and having a .250/.380/.450 type-season.
The White Sox won the World Series in 2005 with great pitching and defense, and some pretty mediocre hitting--they were 9th in the AL in runs scored. With the pitching likey to drop off a bit, Kenny Williams made a tough, aggressive move that he should be commended for. It's hard to break up a World Series team, but a team can't stand pat and expect to stay competitive. Just ask the 2003 Angels. With the Indians a good bet to show improvement next year, chances are not in the White Sox favor to even repeat as division winners, never mind World Champions, but it's good to see that they are a franchise willing to take the risks necessary to try.
Hope everyone had a good Thanksgiving. Some big moves the last couple of weeks, so let's get to a couple of them.
Marlins trade P Josh Beckett, 3B Mike Lowell and P Guillermo Mota to Boston for SS Hanley Ramirez and P's Anibal Sanchez, Jesus Delgado and Harvey Garcia
Certainly a big move by the Red Sox, but one they probably have to make if they have any plans of being a big competitor this year. With Curt Schilling's status still in question, and a bunch of mid-rotation guys filling out the rotation, the Sox needed to go out and get an ace pitcher. With the free agent market littered with the second tier types that Boston already had in spades, going the route of the trade was the only way they were going to get a top guy. The question is, did they get one?
Everyone knows about Beckett's huge postseason in 2003, knocking off the Cubs in the NLCS, and shutting down the Yankees in the Bronx. His regular season career has been considered a bit of a disappointment though. 2005 was the first year that the former #2 draft pick even reached double digit wins, as well as the first year he surpassed 160 innings.
Beckett, though, hasn't suffered from the usual arm problems that plague young pitchers. His problem has been with blisters on the middle finger of his pitching hand. It's certainly been a frustrating problem, but if the Red Sox can solve the problem, or pitching in the colder weather relieves it at all, then the low innings count that Beckett has logged to this point becomes a positive. His arm should be through its formulative years without the wear and tear many managers pile on their young pitchers.
So, while he has the chance to put up a lot more innings going forward, the question becomes, how good will those innings be? In 609 big league innings so far, Beckett has a 3.46 ERA. Half of those innings, though, have been logged in pitcher friendly ProPlayer Stadium--on the road, his ERA is a 3.83. Certainly a very good ERA, but not typical of an ace pitcher, and the American League is the harder pitching park. So his ERA doesn't scream "ace starter."
Looking a bit deeper into his numbers though, and there's a LOT to like about Beckett. In those 609 innings, he has 607 strikeouts, 223 walks, and 55 homers allowed. Those aren't just numbers helped by his home stadium. On the road for his career, in 282.1 innings, he has 265 strikeouts, 95 walks, and 29 homers allowed. Just about anyone will be excited about a 25 year old with a strikeout per inning, a K/BB of near 3:1, and a homer allowed about once every 10 innings. So while we can't call Beckett a slam-dunk ace, there's a ton here to like, and if the blister problem is solved, he'll likely be one of the better pitchers in the American League.
Lowell is an interesting case. He's making $18M over the next two years, a lot for a team like Florida to pay, but more than worth it for a team with deep pockets like Boston to get Beckett, who isn't free agent eligible for two more years. Lowell was pretty terrible last year. Common opinion seems to be that he was fighting nagging injuries, but whether they'll continue to nag, and how far back he'll be able to come is an open question. Still, if he can split the difference between his last two years, he'll be at least as productive at the plate as Kevin Millar, while adding top notch third base defense. The Red Sox led baseball in runs scored last year-- their problem was preventing their opponents from scoring just as many. Unfortunately, Lowell isn't a huge upgrade defensively over Bill Mueller at the hot corner. If the Sox can improve their defense at first as well, it'll be a net improvement, but the Red Sox defensive problems last year were more in the outfield than the infield.
The Red Sox added Mota late in the deal, saying they would've called off the whole thing, noting Beckett's injury problems, if the Marlins didn't include Mota. Mota's a nice reliever, but the Red Sox were foolish to make that bluff, and the Marlins did well to pick up an extra pitching prospect in the deal, and shed Mota's salary at the same time. From the Red Sox standpoint, Mota will most likely pitch better than a lot of the guys they ran in from the bullpen last year, but guys like him are always available, and it was risky to endanger getting Beckett.
While you can debate the claims of Marlins management about the need to dump salary, they did a good job getting a good haul of talent in return. Hanley Ramirez is the bigger name prospect, but Anibal Sanchez is the real gem. The 21 year old Sanchez has been tearing through the minors the past two years this year moving from Class A to AA, logging 136 IP, a 2.85 ERA 40 BB, and 158 K's. (!!!!!!) The Red Sox, for the first time in nearly 20 years, had depth to deal from in their organization, and only projected Sanchez as their third best starting prospect, behind Jon Lester and Jonathan Papelbon. Those are some impressive numbers though, and Sanchez projects to be a top guy. He project so well, in fact, that some have criticized the trade, saying that there is a good chance that Sanchez will be a better pitcher in three years than Beckett. While that very well may be true, it is clearly not the goal of the 2006 Red Sox to build a team to win the World Series in 2008. This is a franchise positioning itself to win this year, and every year, and it was smart to deal from what they considered to be a strength.
Hanley Ramirez has been at the top of prospect lists for years, but it has been more for his tools than his actual production. While the Red Sox have been touting him for some time, their actions spoke louder than words, when they signed Edgar Renteria to a $40M contract last offseason, and drafted Dustin Pedroia with their first pick in the 2004 draft. Pedroia moved up the ladder quickly, and will be in the mix at 2B for the Red Sox this year. Ramirez fans liken his progress to Renteria and Orlando Cabrera, while cynics see more of Donnie Sadler.
Delgado and Garcia are both relief pitchers who were considered afterthoughts in the deal, but both had quality years in 2005 in single A. They give the Marlins quality organizational depth, and a couple pitchers who could help them in 2007.
White Sox trade CF Aaron Rowand and P Doug Haigwood to Philadelphia for 1B Jim Thome
This is probably the most surprising move of the offseason so far. The White Sox, touting their team chemistry and defense in the World Series win, trade their popular CF for an aging slugger coming off a major injury.
In the first reports of the trade, it was rumored that Jose Contreras or Brandon McCarthy were going to be the one going to Philadelphia, which would've been a huge steal for the Phils. As it is though, this is one of those trades that could benefit both teams.
The Phillies take on the situation is obvious. They had a logjam at first base, with Rookie of the Year Ryan Howard and Thome, and a hole in centerfield that they tried to fill last season with Kenny Lofton. Rowand is a mediocre hitter who is unlikely to match his 2004 season again. He's a legitimate excellent defensive player, though, and with the Phillies getting plenty of offense from other positions, they can afford to use a lineup spot on a top notch defender at what is fast being recognized as the most important defensive position on the field. It's not like Rowand is a waste of an at-bat either. He fouls off a lot of pitches, and will probably put up an OPS around .750, more than enough for a fielder of his quality.
Haigwood is a 22-year old fireballer with great strikeout numbers. His control can be rocky at times, but he was absolutely lights out after his promotion to AA Birmingham. In 67 innings, he struck out 76, walked 31, and gave up zero homers on his way to a 1.77 ERA. He's a guy to keep an eye on. The White Sox needn't worry though, as they held on to McCarthy, a guy who very well could make a major league impact as soon as this year.
Everyone knows about Jim Thome. The gigantic slugger seemed to be cutting a trail to Cooperstown before he injured his right elbow, leading to a disastrous season. Suddenly, Thome went from a franchise player to a 35 year old backup.
So why would the World Series champions trade Rowand for such a high-risk guy like Thome? Well, for one, it's becoming more and more obvious that Paul Konerko is headed out of town, to one of the coasts. Konerko was the most productive hitter on the team, and not by only a little bit. A healthy Thome could match Konerko's production, even outdo it. However, the chances of Thome ever being the 40 home run hitter he was in 2004 seems unlikely. However, even having an awful season, he still managed a .360 OPB, not up to Thome's old standard, but a nice sign that his batting eye is still intact. It's not hard to imagining Thome putting 50 points back on to his batting average and having a .250/.380/.450 type-season.
The White Sox won the World Series in 2005 with great pitching and defense, and some pretty mediocre hitting--they were 9th in the AL in runs scored. With the pitching likey to drop off a bit, Kenny Williams made a tough, aggressive move that he should be commended for. It's hard to break up a World Series team, but a team can't stand pat and expect to stay competitive. Just ask the 2003 Angels. With the Indians a good bet to show improvement next year, chances are not in the White Sox favor to even repeat as division winners, never mind World Champions, but it's good to see that they are a franchise willing to take the risks necessary to try.
Friday, November 18, 2005
Transaction notes
The baseball offseason is starting to get into full swing, with some lower tier moves going on. Let's run through a few of this weeks.
The Chicago Cubs signed relief pitcher Scott Eyre to a reported 3-year, $11 million contract.
This comes two weeks after signing Ryan Dempster to a 3-year, $15 million contract. Ouch.
Let me repeat that. The Chicago Cubs are going to pay Scott Eyre and Ryan Dempster over $8 million next year, and $26 million for the next three years.
Simply. Amazing.
Ryan Dempster will be 29 next year, has reasonably good K/BB numbers for his career, and is coming off two consecutive above average seasons. Much of that 4.83 career ERA was put up as a starter for Florida and Cincinnati, so maybe he's found a home in the bullpen. But at $5 million, that's an awful steep price for 70 or so slightly above average innings. He's a good pitcher, but there are better ways to spend the money. (For example, buying Derrek Lee 5 million Junior Cheeseburgers at Wendy's).
Sadly, none of that ringing endorsement should be echoed for Eyre. He's the classic "lefty-one-out-guy." He's going to be 34 early next year and has a 4.52 career ERA. Eyre has been a solid, if unspectacular, pitcher for the Giants the last four years, but he's not a guy you go building a staff around. He's a last piece of a puzzle, rather than the first, and the kind of player that is always floating around at looking for a spring-training invite.
The Cubs are apparently very high on Rafael Furcal. Without discussing the debatable merits of Rafael Furcal as a franchise player, if the Cubs believe he is, shouldn't he be their first priority? They've now spent $8 million on replaceable parts. If a bidding war starts up for Furcal, wouldn't they rather have the extra couple million to play with to make sure they get their top guy, then worry about filling the bullpen? It's a backwards way to build a team, and it's a good way to find yourself competing with Pittsburgh for fifth place rather than St. Louis for first.
The New York Yankees signed OF Hideki Matsui to a four year contract, reportedly worth $52 million.
Matsui was considered a potential top ten free agent, but most circles agreed that a deal would be worked out. The negotiations were a bit different because Matsui had a clause in his contract that he'd be non-tendered if he wasn't signed to an extension by November 15, and therefore unable to negotiate with the Yankees until next May.
Yes, the Yankees overpaid for Matsui, but the rationale is that they can afford to pay more for their wins than other teams. Which means the issue becomes whether Matsui is going to actually bring them very many wins. He's not a great hitter, but he is a good one, and batting behind guys that get on base will get him his 100 RBI. He seems reasonably athletic and well-conditioned, which tends to lead to aging well, and he has a solid batting eye, though it's something to watch for, as he fell to 56 unintentional walks this past season, down from 86 in 2004. He doesn't strike me as the kind of player who is just going to fall off the table, so chances are he'll still be a productive player in 2009.
Reportedly, he wants to play centerfield, saying he feels more comfortable out there. He rated as an average defensive leftfielder, which comes with the asterisk that, with the sluggers teams put out in leftfield, being average doesn't take very much. He doesn't have great speed, a very good arm, he doesn't take great routes to balls-- so it's easy to understand why the Yankees would consider putting him in centerfield. The Yankees outfield defense certainly hurt them throughout the season last year, and it was made crystal clear in Game 5 of the ALDS against the Angels. With Matsui in leftfield, his flaws will remain hidden. In centerfield, there's a good chance of more of the same-- a lot of doubles in the rightcenterfield gap, and people wondering why their pitchers are putting up ERA's in the 4's and 5's.
Reports out seem to have the Yankees looking at two options for next season. The first is signing Brian Giles, and moving Matsui to center. Giles is a world class hitter, and a solid defensive player. The other option they've discussed is leaving Matsui in left, and having Bubba Crosby play center. Yep, that was the sound of baseball fans around the country chuckling at you. I'm not sure if it's blind faith or total arrogance that would make the Yankee front office think Crosby, who will be 30 next August and has a career OPS of .554, and a career VORP of -5, is a capable every day major leaguer, but either way, it's the type of move that will have them scouting the waiver-wire for someone who can deliver an OPS over .600 by early May.
Moves like that are typical of the way the Yankees have operated in recent years--take note of your star players, and figure that anyone can settle in to the second tier roles-- and are a major reason why they've watched other teams celebrating to end their season the last five years. During their run from 1996 to 2000, the Yankees had star players, but they also won because they had second tier players like Scott Brosius and Chad Curtis playing, rather than guys who would struggle to hit .200 over a major league season, like Crosby or Enrique Wilson. I'm reminded of the offseason of the A-Rod deal. When Aaron Boone went down with his knee injury, they traded for Mike Lamb, now of the Houston Astros. When the A-Rod trade went through, they simply released Lamb. Now, Lamb isn't going to be a guy to carry you to the World Series, but he is a versatile, serviceable player, who certainly helped the Houston Astros in their march to the World Series.
The point here is that there are a lot of players between the quality of Brian Giles and Bubba Crosby who are available. If they are unable to sign Giles for whatever reason, they should take a cue from what they'd have done only seven or eight years ago, and sign one of those in between players. Either that, or they should be prepared to watch the Cardinals or Indians or Athletics popping the cork next October.
The Chicago Cubs signed relief pitcher Scott Eyre to a reported 3-year, $11 million contract.
This comes two weeks after signing Ryan Dempster to a 3-year, $15 million contract. Ouch.
Let me repeat that. The Chicago Cubs are going to pay Scott Eyre and Ryan Dempster over $8 million next year, and $26 million for the next three years.
Simply. Amazing.
Ryan Dempster will be 29 next year, has reasonably good K/BB numbers for his career, and is coming off two consecutive above average seasons. Much of that 4.83 career ERA was put up as a starter for Florida and Cincinnati, so maybe he's found a home in the bullpen. But at $5 million, that's an awful steep price for 70 or so slightly above average innings. He's a good pitcher, but there are better ways to spend the money. (For example, buying Derrek Lee 5 million Junior Cheeseburgers at Wendy's).
Sadly, none of that ringing endorsement should be echoed for Eyre. He's the classic "lefty-one-out-guy." He's going to be 34 early next year and has a 4.52 career ERA. Eyre has been a solid, if unspectacular, pitcher for the Giants the last four years, but he's not a guy you go building a staff around. He's a last piece of a puzzle, rather than the first, and the kind of player that is always floating around at looking for a spring-training invite.
The Cubs are apparently very high on Rafael Furcal. Without discussing the debatable merits of Rafael Furcal as a franchise player, if the Cubs believe he is, shouldn't he be their first priority? They've now spent $8 million on replaceable parts. If a bidding war starts up for Furcal, wouldn't they rather have the extra couple million to play with to make sure they get their top guy, then worry about filling the bullpen? It's a backwards way to build a team, and it's a good way to find yourself competing with Pittsburgh for fifth place rather than St. Louis for first.
The New York Yankees signed OF Hideki Matsui to a four year contract, reportedly worth $52 million.
Matsui was considered a potential top ten free agent, but most circles agreed that a deal would be worked out. The negotiations were a bit different because Matsui had a clause in his contract that he'd be non-tendered if he wasn't signed to an extension by November 15, and therefore unable to negotiate with the Yankees until next May.
Yes, the Yankees overpaid for Matsui, but the rationale is that they can afford to pay more for their wins than other teams. Which means the issue becomes whether Matsui is going to actually bring them very many wins. He's not a great hitter, but he is a good one, and batting behind guys that get on base will get him his 100 RBI. He seems reasonably athletic and well-conditioned, which tends to lead to aging well, and he has a solid batting eye, though it's something to watch for, as he fell to 56 unintentional walks this past season, down from 86 in 2004. He doesn't strike me as the kind of player who is just going to fall off the table, so chances are he'll still be a productive player in 2009.
Reportedly, he wants to play centerfield, saying he feels more comfortable out there. He rated as an average defensive leftfielder, which comes with the asterisk that, with the sluggers teams put out in leftfield, being average doesn't take very much. He doesn't have great speed, a very good arm, he doesn't take great routes to balls-- so it's easy to understand why the Yankees would consider putting him in centerfield. The Yankees outfield defense certainly hurt them throughout the season last year, and it was made crystal clear in Game 5 of the ALDS against the Angels. With Matsui in leftfield, his flaws will remain hidden. In centerfield, there's a good chance of more of the same-- a lot of doubles in the rightcenterfield gap, and people wondering why their pitchers are putting up ERA's in the 4's and 5's.
Reports out seem to have the Yankees looking at two options for next season. The first is signing Brian Giles, and moving Matsui to center. Giles is a world class hitter, and a solid defensive player. The other option they've discussed is leaving Matsui in left, and having Bubba Crosby play center. Yep, that was the sound of baseball fans around the country chuckling at you. I'm not sure if it's blind faith or total arrogance that would make the Yankee front office think Crosby, who will be 30 next August and has a career OPS of .554, and a career VORP of -5, is a capable every day major leaguer, but either way, it's the type of move that will have them scouting the waiver-wire for someone who can deliver an OPS over .600 by early May.
Moves like that are typical of the way the Yankees have operated in recent years--take note of your star players, and figure that anyone can settle in to the second tier roles-- and are a major reason why they've watched other teams celebrating to end their season the last five years. During their run from 1996 to 2000, the Yankees had star players, but they also won because they had second tier players like Scott Brosius and Chad Curtis playing, rather than guys who would struggle to hit .200 over a major league season, like Crosby or Enrique Wilson. I'm reminded of the offseason of the A-Rod deal. When Aaron Boone went down with his knee injury, they traded for Mike Lamb, now of the Houston Astros. When the A-Rod trade went through, they simply released Lamb. Now, Lamb isn't going to be a guy to carry you to the World Series, but he is a versatile, serviceable player, who certainly helped the Houston Astros in their march to the World Series.
The point here is that there are a lot of players between the quality of Brian Giles and Bubba Crosby who are available. If they are unable to sign Giles for whatever reason, they should take a cue from what they'd have done only seven or eight years ago, and sign one of those in between players. Either that, or they should be prepared to watch the Cardinals or Indians or Athletics popping the cork next October.
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