SoxProspects.com: Red Sox sign RHP Ross Ohlendorf to minor-league contract

Peter Gammons is reporting the Red Sox have signed right-handed pitcher Ross Ohlendorf to a minor-league contract. He broke the news on twitter. 

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Neftali Feliz or Daniel Bard?

Yesterday at Baseball Nation, Jeff Sullivan came out with a pretty good response to a kind of silly article by Jon Heyman regarding the "cheapness" of the Boston Red Sox this offseason. Of course as most people know, the Red Sox sudden thrift has been largely overstated. Read Sullivan's article for the entire explanation, but the gist is that a lot of the players on the 2012 roster are holdovers who are getting paid more than they were last year.

However, there was one line of Sullivan's article that struck me as off:

Daniel Bard is supposed to take one of the rotation slots, and it's hard to see how he's a worse bet than Neftali Feliz.

Is Daniel Bard really as good as Neftali Feliz? And if so, does that make him as likely to succeed as a starter? My gut told me no (on both counts), but I figured it would be worth looking into. So, for the record, this is a response to a response. Considering the line (CBS -- Baseball Nation -- Me) the law of diminishing returns applies here. I'm going to guess several thousand people read Heyman's article, several hundred read Sullivan's response, and... well, if you're reading this, that means somebody read my response to the response. It's all good.

Ok, let's dive in:

Year	Tm	W	L	ERA	G	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA+	WHIP	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9	SO/BB
Feliz	Texas	7	6	2.55	154	74	162.2	98	49	46	11	56	164	178	0.947	0.6	3.1	9.1	2.93
Bard	Boston	5	13	2.88	192	5	197	132	71	63	16	76	213	154	1.056	0.7	3.5	9.7	2.8

Bard and Feliz were called up within a couple months of each other in 2009, so their careers are nicely comparable. I considered taking W/L record and saves out of the stat line, because they are essentially white noise - Bard wasn't a closer, so of course he isn't going to get the same number of saves. Going straight to the other stats, Feliz has slight advantages is HR/9, BB/9 and ERA. However, considering that Arlington is a tougher place to pitch than Boston, Feliz actually has a pretty notable advantage in ERA+. Not that Bard is a slouch in any of these categories. His walk rate is high, but not exceptionally so, and  makes up for it with an extremely impressive K rate. Feliz has the slightly better numbers, but Sullivan is right - based on their careers so far, it's hard to say that Feliz has been so much better that you'd risk your Nolan Ryan rookie card on the fact he'll continue to be better.

Still, what stat tends to change the most when a pitcher moves from the rotation to the bullpen (and back again)? It's the strikeout rate. Since a pitcher knows he's only throwing for an inning or two, he tends to throw harder and hold back less than one who might have to pitch multiple innings. This isn't just conjecture, it's statistically verifiable. In 2011, American League relievers struck out 7.7 per nine innings, while starters struck out 6.6. In 2010, it was 7.4-6.6. In 2009, 7.6-6.5. Way back in 1993, it was 6.4-5.5. The trend holds. If we can expect a starting pitcher to strike out 10% fewer batters, that hurts Bard more, because his strikeout advantage will be slightly blunted, make the fact that he's done everything else slightly worse than Feliz even more notably. 

Next, the age factor. While Bard and Feliz were called up around the same time, Bard was allegedly born June 25, 1985, while Felix was allegedly born May 2, 1988. So Feliz is younger by two years, 10 months and 8 days. Feliz's 178 ERA+ through age 23, or Bard's 154, in a similar inning count, through age 26? At the very least, that should say something about Feliz's "upside," shouldn't it?

Then, there's the fatigue factor. Much was made about Feliz's slow start last season. Could it be that the 77 appearances in 2010 has tired him out? Possibly. It's also possible that it was a sample size issue. In the first half, through 34 innings pitched, Feliz had a 3.18 ERA, and even more distressingly, only 23 strikeouts to 18 walks. While that's ugly, it's important to remember that it was in only 34 innings. That's about 6 starts. Six! One bad month. In the second half, though? 28.1 innings, 31 strikeouts, only 13 walks, and a 2.22. Again, a small sample, but considering the rest of his career line, the first half last season is a bit of an outlier.If the problem was fatigue, he overcame it.

On the other hand, Bard's splits were in the other direction. In 26 appearances from May 27th to July 31st, he gave up zero runs. Zip. Zilch. At the end of July, Bard had compiled 51 innings pitched, giving up 29 hits, only 10 earned runs (a 1.76 ERA), 13 walks, and 49 strikeouts. On August 1, it all fell apart, giving up 3 runs in the 8th inning in a loss to Cleveland. From then on, Bard pitched 22 innings, and gave up 17 earned runs (a 6.95 ERA), walking 11, and striking out 25. The strikeout rate remained high, but everything else went in the wrong direction.

Of course, that's also a small sample size issue. Still, we're talking about which of the two is more likely to make the transition to starting pitcher. With that in mind, wouldn't you bet on the guy who pitched less well at the beginning of the year, rather than the guy who imploded after 51 innings? Particularly since this was the second year in a row where Bard's walk rate increased significantly in the second half. On the other hand, Bard had several more appearances in 2011 of over 1 inning, and he was extremely effective in them. Feliz had only one save where he retired more than three batters. In-game, Bard did not show any signs of fatigue that would lead you to believe that he necessarily couldn't handle a longer role.

So, we've gone through past performance, age and fatigue, and find that Feliz looks better than Bard. All this without getting into the most important distinction - Feliz was made a reliever because the Rangers needed a reliever, while Bard was made a reliever because he was so bad as a starter in 2007 in Single-A that the Red Sox never used him to start another game.

I don't have the starter/reliever splits, but take a look at the minor league numbers of Feliz: he made 53 starts from the time he signed with the Braves in 2006 until he was converted to the bullpen in 2009 (plus one more start on rehab in 2011 where he pitched only the first inning). In 2008, as a 20-year old, Feliz pitched 127.1 innings, with a 2.69 ERA, 153 strikeouts, 51 walks, and only three home runs allowed. This made him Baseball America's #10 prospect in all of baseball going into the 2009 season. The pitchers ahead of him were David Price, Tommy Hanson, Brett Anderson and Madison Bumgarner. He followed that with another dominant season in 2009 between Triple-A and the majors (not quite exhausting rookie status), and Baseball America made him their #9 prospect. He then won the 2010 Rookie of the Year award, as a closer.

Now take a look at Bard's minor league numbers. After being taken 28th overall in the 2006 draft out of North Carolina (where he was the #2 starter behind future Red Sox teammate Andrew Miller), the Red Sox challenged him with an aggressive placement in High A. He made five very poor starts, and they moved him down to the South Atlantic League, where things continued to go badly. How badly? In 22 starts across the two levels, he managed only 75 innings. He walked 78 and struck out just 47. His ERA ended up at 7.08. Fearful they'd drafted a bust, the Red Sox moved him into the bullpen in 2008, with outstanding results, and he's been in the pen ever since.

I don't think 22 bad starts in 2007 mean Bard will fail as a starter. In fact, I think the opposite - he's been a very good pitcher in the bullpen, and very good pitchers in the bullpen tend to be able to convert to starters or at least an acceptable level. Not always, but usually. Plus, Bard wants to start - the worst case scenario here is that he ends up going back to the bullpen. After working out as a starter, that should at least work to counteract those possible fatigue issues.

But as for the assertion that Bard is as likely to succeed as Feliz? Feliz is three years younger, has been a slightly better reliever in the majors, and was an extremely successful starter in the minors, which Bard was definitely not. Which one would you rather bet on?

Table made with TABLEIZER!

Bill James: "I think Dwight Evans is a Hall of Famer"

I wanted to link to yesterday's article at Grantland where Bill James advocated putting Dwight Evans in the Hall of Fame. Evans was my favorite players as a child, so the pro-Evans appreciations in recent years are pretty enjoyable for me. Unlike a lot of James's contributions "Win Shares" have not really caught on, for a variety of reasons, and the article is a bit verbose (as James has a tendency to be), but the argument is strong, I think. Pretty amazing to think that Evans, who fell off the ballot in his second year, could now be thought of as a Hall of Fame candidate, but that's why there are rules in place to enable us to re-evaluate players. Guys whose value came in things other than the standard Triple Crown stats can take awhile to be appreciated. That's why it took so long to get Ron Santo in the Hall.

A couple more thoughts:

1. I have trouble believing Evans will get to the Hall anytime soon. However, the Red Sox really should retire his number. You can make a fairly strong case that Evans is the third greatest player in Red Sox history, behind Ted Williams and Carl Yastrzemski. Let's get his #24 up in right field.

2. I hope James follows up his Evans piece on an even more neglected player, who, like Evans, was a star in the 80's who got underappreciated because his value wasn't in home runs and batting average. Lou Whitaker only hit .300 twice and never once drove in 100 runs. However, he retired with a career WAR close to 70 on the strength of a high OBP and great defense. By scoring and preventing runs, Whitaker played a big role in making Jack Morris a Hall of Fame candidate.

SoxProspects.com: Red Sox sign Australian LHP Daniel McGrath

The Red Sox have agreed to a contract with 17-year-old Australian phenom Daniel McGrath. The news of the left-handed pitcher’s signing was originally reported on Twitter by the Doncaster Dragons...

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Jeremy Guthrie not a good fit in Colorado

Ever since the Colorado Rockies have come into existence, there has been a discussion about what "type" of pitcher would succeed there. Going into what will be the Rockies' twentieth year of existence, the simplest answer to me seems to be "the good type," though it is a little more complicated than that. Talk that pitchers in Colorado should strike batters out and keep the ball on the ground is almost too basic - that's a recipe for success everywhere, not just in the Rocky Mountains. What needs to be clarified is that fly ball pitchers with middling strikeout rates won't necessarily fail everywhere, but Colorado is an especially bad fit.

Colorado, meet Jeremy Guthrie.

This is a rough break for Guthrie, who has actually been a better pitcher than I realized. In 2011, he lost 17 games for the second time in three years, but he was a solid rotation guy, compiling over 200 innings of averageness in a division where that's tough to do. In all five years with the Orioles, he had an ERA+ over 90, and pitched 175 innings. Three times he managed a 110 ERA+. In 2011, he had his third straight year over 200 innings. All this, despite never striking out more than 5.7 per nine innings, and a GB/FB ratio right around 1/1. It would be reasonable to think that moving out of the AL East would lead to an improvement in his win-loss record (47-65 in five years with a crummy Orioles team) and a bit more recognition.

What's important to note is, while Guthrie has been unlucky regarding his W/L record, he's been fairly lucky on balls in play and in keeping his fly balls in the park. His highest BABIP was the Orioles was .286, and less than 10% of his fly balls left the park. This is unlikely to hold up in Colorado. While you know about how the ball carries, an offshoot of that is that outfielders tend to play deeper, allowing more singles to fall in front of them. In 2011, a slightly down year for offense, Rocky pitchers had a .298 BABIP and allowed 11.6% of the fly balls to go out of the park. 

So, while it's normal to expect any pitcher to have his numbers hurt moving to Colorado, Guthrie, who strikes out a below average number (and therefore allows more pitches to be hit) and has a below average ground ball rate (therefore meaning that more of those pitches that are hit go up in the air), is probably more susceptible to the dangers of Coors Field than most pitchers. \

Guthrie turns 33 the first week of the season, so it's unlikely his pitching is going to fundamentally change. He should strike out some more guys, because he'll be facing NL West pitchers instead of AL East designated hitters. (Coors field may be intimidating, but I think he'll prefer pitching to Tim Lincecum there to David Ortiz in Camden Yards. Having to bat against Tim Lincecum, on the other hand...) Still, even with a slightly improved strikeout rate, his fly ball tendencies and low K rate will probably mean a higher ERA. A little bad luck could make for a very ugly stat line.

In return, the Orioles received Jason Hammel and Matt Lindstrom. I'm not sure Guthrie is all that likely to outperform Hammel (though Guthrie's durability has value), and Lindstrom had a nice year out of the Coloardo bullpen. Guthrie will make $8.2M in 2012, Hammel and Lindstrom about $8.3M combined. In 2011, baseball-reference had Hammel and Lindstrom worth a combine 5.2 WAR, while Guthrie was 4.5 WAR.

Hammel was once a pretty big prospect in the Tampa Bay system. In 2006, Baseball America had him rated #79 in baseball. This was just before the real influx of talent two years later. Traded to the Rockies after the 2008 season, he's had three straight years in Colorado with ERAs in the mid 4's and 170+ innings. His strikeout ratio plummeted from 7.1 in 2010 to 5.0 in 2011, so that's the main thing to keep an eye on. He's only 29, so a rebound in his strikeout rate could lead to him outperforming Guthrie.

Lindstrom spent a chunk of 2010 as Houston's closer, saving 23 games, but he was much better with Colorado in 2010, cutting his ERA by a run and a half, based largely on lowering his walk and home run rates. He'll be in the Oriole bullpen, and he'll probably be just fine.