Midseason thoughts

I published my First-half awards earlier today, but I wanted to throw around my other thoughts on the season so far, and what to expect in the second half. 

Other thoughts, related and unrelated:

-Remember pre-season 2011? Everyone picked the Red Sox to play the Phillies in the World Series? Well the Phillies ran into Chris Carpenter and Father Time, the Red Sox couldn't stay healthy, and now both are in last place. The Red Sox have an outside chance to sneak into the second wild card spot, but the Phillies are probably playing for next year. Their five-year playoff streak is, surprisingly, the longest current streak in baseball.   

-Albert Pujols:

    -Opening day through May 4: 27 games (0 team games missed), .194/.237/.269, zero home runs.

    -May 5: Given the day off

    -May 6 to present: 58 games (0 team games missed), .305/.378/.555, 14 home runs.

Moral of the story - Pujols is probably not the best hitter in baseball anymore, but he is certainly a long way from done. The Angels resurgence has corresponded perfectly with that of El Hombre, and I'm pretty sure you don't want your pitchers to be facing him with the game on the line in the playoffs, do you?

-Matt Moore, ranked on several prospect lists (Kevin Goldstein, Jonathan Mayo, Jim Callis) ahead of both Bryce Harper and Mike Trout, has an ERA+ of 83 for Tampa Bay. That doesn't mean he won't turn into a great pitcher, but didn't it seem funny that he was ranked ahead of someone in Harper who a) seemed like a historically great prospect, and b) is four years younger? Especially considering that hitters are easier to project than pitchers, it seems likely that Moore was placed first more to generate controversy than out of a considered belief that he would turn into a better player. 

-Player Development isn't always smooth, Exhibit A: Justin Upton is hitting "only" .273/.353/.401, to the frustration of Diamondbacks fans. If a 24-year old outfielder was called up from Triple-A, he'd get Rookie of the Year consideration in many years. Upton came up so young that it's easy to forget how young he still is.

-Player Development isn't always smooth, Exhibit B: Jason Heyward, 22, is hitting .272/.340/.497, his career best slugging percentage. His more aggressive approach is causing some consternation from some, though. He's walking in only 8.9% of plate appearances, while striking out in 22.6%. Compare that to his rookie season of 2010, with a 14.6% walk rate and 20.5% strikeout rate. The payoff, of course, is in extra home runs - he's hitting one every 21.0 at bats in 2012, from ever 28.9 in 2010. Some in the Braves organization thought Heyward was too passive in 2011, leading to his disappointing sophomore campaign. We'll see where this goes.

-Looking for good bets to have a big improvement in the second half? Jose Batista is your best choice. His .215 BABIP seems artificially low, considering he's leading the league in home runs and has a .270 career number. Even with the bad luck on balls in play, he's at .244/.360/.540 on the season. Giving him the extra 13 singles that would move that BABIP up to .270? .286/.394/.581, again putting him among the best hitters in the league. 

-Tim Lincecum. He's 3-10 with an MLB-worst 6.42 ERA. FIP and other advanced stats tell us he shouldn't be that bad, but really nobody should be this bad, much less somebody who was the best pitcher in the league three years ago. His walk rate has increased gradually since 2009 and now is at 4.7 per 9. Still, it's hard to imagine a pitcher who still strikes out nearly 10 batters per nine innings continuing to be this bad. Don't expect a return to his old form, but a return to respectability should be in order here.

 

-Example of why more wild card spots doesn't equal more excitement - Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, St. Louis, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Atlanta and New York are all within a game of each other. Does having four of them, rather than three, make things more exciting? It seems to do the opposite to me. The more wild card teams you add, the worse the teams that are competing at the end of the regular season are. That's progress?

-Finally, the All-Star game gets a lot of flak these days. You know what? I'm going to watch all nine innings of it, and I'll enjoy every second of it. Sure, that doesn't mean it will be great baseball and it doesn't make the "This Year It Counts" gimmick any less infuriating (though it's no less random than the alternating system that was used through 2002). Best of all, the game will be in Kansas City. Twenty years ago, Royal Stadium (since renamed Kaufman Stadium) was the best of the cookie cutter circular stadiums, of which there were far too many. Now, cast against the new retro stadiums, its un-pretentiousness, its lack of manufactured nooks and crannies, makes it one of baseball's most unique. I'm looking forward to watching some home runs into the water fountain.

Ranking the mega-contracts

Over at the Huffington Post, ScottCampbell takes a crack at naming the 10 worst contracts in baseball right now. It’s a valiant effort – there are a lot of bad contracts out there – though at points it lacks some real analysis. See this quote on Albert Pujols:

“Pujols may go down as the greatest right-handed hitter ever, but that still doesn't mean this contract won't end up looking dreadful halfway through.”

First of all, in order to go down as the greatest right-handed hitter ever, Pujols will still need to be producing at age 35, so that sentence contradicts itselfa little bit. Secondly, Campbell is making the common mistake of rating Pujols contract by the fact that he won’t be worth the money on the back end. Isn’t it possible, though, that he’ll be so good at the front end that it will even out? In 2016, we can try to figure out whether he’ll be worth the remaining amount on his contract, but in 2012, we should be evaluating Pujols' contract based on the whole thing, right?

Anyway, Campbell’s list seems solid on its face. It's not like he ranked Pujols' contract as the worst, he had him 8th. I wanted to dig a bit deeper to see if I agree.

I’m taking the 22 mega-contracts, and comparing the amount a player is likely to produce with the amount he’s likely to be worth over that time. I’m defining "mega-contracts: as those with $20M in Average Annual Value remaining, or contracts worth over $100M total. This leaves off Alfonso Soriano and John Lackey, among others. Very simple, really. Some things to consider.

-Past value, under the current contract, is not considered. Mark Teixiera’s excellent 2009 season isn’t relevant to us, only whether he’ll be worth the $112.5M over the next five years.

-A team’s ability to pay a contract will not be considered. We’re considering whether a player is worth that money in a vacuum. It’s a valuable measure, I think – maybe the Red Sox can afford to pay Carl Crawford what he’s making, but is they’re unlikely to be able to trade him. That limits their flexibility.

-It’s important to remember that remaining length is an important consideration. Sure, Vernon Wells won’t be worth $63M over the next three years – but would you rather have Vernon Wells, plus another $53M to spend between 2015-2017, or Jayson Werth?

-These values will change. Ryan Braun and Troy Tulowitzki have backloaded contract extentions that are very team friendly right now. If we do this analysis again in five years, when they’re making huge money in their thirties, maybe they’ll be untradeable albatrosses. This value is about the present, though.

-I’m not a statistician. My attempts to figure how valuable a player will be and how much money that will be worth, in future years, are pretty broad. That said, predicting Troy Tulowitzki’s 2020 season is pretty much a shot in the dark anyway, no matter how advanced a statistical model you’ll be using.

So, with that in mind, here are the 22 MEGA contracts, ranked from best to worst.

1. Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers. 9 years, $131.5M

Expected WAR, 2012-2020: 46.4. Expected value: $234.69M. Value of contract +$103.19 total, +$11.47M annually.

Braun, going into his age 28 season, has averaged 6.1 WAR over his past three years. He’s locked up for the rest of the decade, running through his age-36 season. Testosterone levels aside, my valuation has Braun worth over $140M in the first five years alone. In free agency, he’d have gotten $200M, easily. Great contract for the Brewers.

2. Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado Rockies. 9 years, $152.25M.

Expected WAR, 2012-2020: 49.0. Expected value: $248.32. Value of contract +$96.07M total, +$10.67M annually.

Tulowitzki is by far the best shortstop in baseball right now. Over the total length of his contract, he’s expected to be worth more than any other player. Since he’s making a couple million more annually than Braun, he’s not quite as underpaid, over the length of his contract, but I think the Rockies will take it. Everyone in Denver gets to continue to be a Tulowitness to a future Hall of Famer.

3. Matt Kemp, Los Angeles Dodgers, 8 years, $160M.

Expected WAR, 2012-2019: 46.5. Expected value: $232.75M. Value of contract +$72.75M total, +$9.09M annually.

Kemp, like Tulowitzki, is just heading into his age-27 season. While he hasn’t been quite as consistent as the first two on this list, his 10.0 WAR in 2011 shows what his upside is. His average expected WAR is actually higher than both Braun and Tulowitzki. He’s getting paid quite a bit more than those two, though, so he’s not quite the “steal.” Still, a good bet to be a very team-friendly contract.

4. Adrian Gonzalez, Boston Red Sox, 7 years, $152M.

Expected WAR, 2012-2018: 37.5. Expected value: $186.23M. Value of contract +$34.32M total, +$4.89M annually.

It’s a pretty big dropoff from Kemp to Gonzalez, who is three years older and is paid $1.7M more annually. The Red Sox won’t be complaining, as Gonzalez’s high level of production will continue. Even at the back end of the deal, Gonzalez should still be worth $20M+ per year. With all the criticism of the Red Sox spending spree last winter, locking up Gonzalez to a relatively team friendly contract extension through his prime, rather than letting him hit the open market, was a great move.

5. Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers, 4 years, $86M.

Expected WAR, 2012-2015: 23.0. Expected value: $111.59. Value of contract +$25.59M total, +$6.40M annually.

The main difference between Gonzalez’s contract and Cabrera’s is that the my matrix has Gonzalez continuing to produce above his average contract value beyond 2015. Think about it – at first look, you’d probably rather have Cabrera plus the 3 years and $66M to spend after the 2015 season. However, my matrix has Gonzalez being worth about $71M in those three years. Cabrera, if he’s still producing at something close to his current level, will command more than a 3 year, $66M contract - even going into his age-33 season. So, while Cabrera looks to be a slightly better value annually over the length of his contract, the Red Sox having Gonzalez locked up in future productive years makes his deal more valuable to him.

6. Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers. 3 years, $60M

Expected WAR, 2012-2014: 17.6. Expected value: $84.19M. Value of contract +$24.19M total, +$8.06M annually.

Verlander could blow this projection away, or get hurt. Barring injury, Verlander will either get a massive extension, or sign the biggest ever contract ever for a pitcher after the 2014 season.

7. Roy Halladay, Philadelphia Phillies. 2 years, $40M.

Expected WAR, 2012-2013: 11.9. Expected value: $56.41M. Value of contract +$16.41M total, +$8.2M annually.

Halladay also has a possible $20M vesting option for 2014, which he will probably also be worth. As a 35-year old pitcher, the possible that he’ll run out of gas is there. As the best pitcher alive, the possibility is that it won’t.

8. Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants. 2 years, $40M.

Expected WAR, 2012-2013: 9.5. Expected value: $45.28M. Value of contract +$5.28M total, +$2.64M annually.

A couple weeks ago, when Lincecum signed his extension, I saw the numbers and thought to myself “that seems about right.” Lincecum is not the pitcher of his 2008-2009 peak, but he’s still very, very good. This deal seems sensible for both player and team.

9. C.C. Sabathia, New York Yankees. 5 years, $122M.

Expected WAR, 2012-2016: 22.8. Expected value: $111.13M. Value of contract -$10.88M total, -$2.18M annually.

Sabathia has the biggest contract of any pitcher in baseball, and the highest annual value of any pitcher in the American League. He’s also been remarkably consistent, and usually good. So while he might be slightly overpaid, if you asked Brian Cashman or any Yankees fan “You’re paying Sabathia $24.4M over the next five years – will you be upset if he’s actually worth only about $22.2 annually?” they’ll probably giggle. Of all the big, long-term contracts in baseball, this one is probably the most spot on. Team and player will both probably be happy with the results.

10. Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins. 7 years, $161M

Expected WAR, 2012-2018: 29.5. Expected value: $146.57M. Value of contract -$14.43M total, -$2.06M annually.

And here is the problem with statistical analysis. My computer doesn’t know that Joe Mauer might be broken. In fairness, Joe Mauer probably wouldn’t know if my computer might be broken. Anyhow, this could easily be a franchise crippling disaster of a contract. Here’s hoping he gets healthy and resumes his Hall of Fame-level production, even if he needs to move to 3B or RF in order to do it.

11. Albert Pujols, Los Angeles Angels. 10 years, $240M

Expected WAR, 2012-2021: 43.3. Expected value: $217M. Value of contract -$22.83M total, -$2.28M annually.

Would you pay Albert Pujols $2M more than he’s worth annually, over the next 10 years, in order to have him on your team for the next 5? Think of it this way – my model has him worth about $150M over the next five years. He’s one of the greatest players ever, and he’s still near his prime. Sometimes, in order to get the best player in baseball, you need to promise to pay him for when he’ll no longer be the best player in baseball. The Angels were willing to take that risk, to say “to hell with 2020, we want to be a championship level team for the next five years,” and are paying the greatest player alive accordingly.

12. Cliff Lee, Philadelphia Phillies. 4 years, $109M.

Expected WAR, 2012-2015: 16.2. Expected value: $85.06M. Value of contract -$22.94M total, -$5.99M annually.

Cliff Lee is great, but his postseason performances have somewhat inflated his stock. He’s averaged 5.4 WAR over the last three seasons, and he’s going into his age-33 season. And he’s making a LOT of money – over $27.5M annually. Lee’s good enough that this isn’t a bad contract, but it’s not exactly a steal for the Phillies

Ok, now onto the 10 worst of the mega-contracts!

13. Johan Santana, New York Mets. 2 years, $55M.

Expected WAR, 2012-2013: 4.6. Expected value: $21.76M. Value of contract -$33.23M total, -$16.62M annually.

Ladies and gentlemen, your New York Mets! Santana was better than you remember from 2008 through 2010, and will be unfairly remembered for how much the Mets overpaid for him. Pitching is at a premium, so Santana is likely to be worth something -- just not anything near what the Mets are paying him. Santana will be 33 on opening day, and would need an extremely unlikely career revival to have much of a Hall of Fame case. Still, he should get credit for a fantastic peak. From 2002 through 2010, his lowest ERA+ was 129. His career 142 ERA+ is 11^th all time, ahead of Halladay and Lincecum.

14. Jose Reyes, Miami Marlins. 6 years, $106M.

Expected WAR, 2012-2017: 13.9. Expected value: $68.12M. Value of contract -$37.88M total, -$6.31M annually.

So Reyes, on and off of the disabled list the last three years, is suddenly going to be healthy in his 30’s? I know he’s a dynamic, exciting player, but that’s a lot of money to spend. Reyes has one of the highest variations of anyone on this list. He could be worth his contract with ease, and he could be a 100 game-a-year player. He’s not a great risk at that money, though.

15. Mark Teixeira, New York Yankees. 5 years, $112.5M.

Expected WAR, 2012-2017: 14.8. Expected value: $71.78M. Value of contract -$40.73M total, -$8.15M annually.

Joe Posnanski termed it Tex-pensive – a ridiculous contract for a very good player. What’s funny, though, is that being overpaid will bring most players an unfair amount of criticism – think Barry Zito, Jason Giambi or Darren Dreifort. After all, it wasn’t their choice to be overpaid by foolish bosses. Teixeira, on the other hand, seems to be given credit BECAUSE he is the overpaid Yankees first basemen. "Of course he’s awesome, he got a $180M contract!" The fact that he started well in New York, with a big year in a World Series season, certainly helped his reputation. Sure, the Yankees can afford it, but they’re overpaying a good player, and it inhibits their chances of getting a better one. He’s a $14-18M player, but getting paid over $22M. When Joey Votto becomes a free agent, remember that the Yankees instead are overpaying a first basemen who, in 2011, wasn't as good as Casey Kotchman.

16. Barry Zito, San Francisco Giants. 2 years, $46M

Expected WAR, 2012-2013: 0.7. Expected value: $3.21M. Value of contract -$42.79M total, -$21.4M annually.

It’s almost over. Per year, he’s the most overpaid player in baseball. He just has the advantage that he’s only getting overpaid over the next two years. By percentage of remaining contract expected to be earned, Zito rankes dead last on this list, at less than 7%. Oof.

17. Prince Fielder, Detroit Tigers. 9 years, $214M

Expected WAR, 2012-2020: 33.5. Expected value: $168.9M. Value of contract -$45.10M total, -$5.01M annually.

Like Teixeira, Fielder is a very good player getting paid like a franchise-changing one. He’s younger than Pujols and Gonzalez, yes, but he’s just not as good. I don’t know how his body will age, and the computer doesn’t seem to want to speculate on it. What it does tell us is that a 7 year, $145M contract would’ve been totally reasonable. Overpaying Fielder, on its own, isn’t so bad. Overpaying him at the expense of being able to resign Miguel Cabrera or Justin Verlander could be. We’ll see how this plays out.

18. Vernon Wells, Los Angeles Angels. 3 years, $63M.

Expected WAR, 2012-2013: 2.0. Expected value: $9.5M. Value of contract -$53.5M total, -$17.83M annually.

Like Zito, the only thing keeping this from being lower on the list is that it will end sort of soon. This contract is a disaster, and taking it on probably got Tony Reagins fired. 

19. Carl Crawford, Boston Red Sox. 6 years, $128M.

 Expected WAR, 2012-2017: 14.9. Expected value: $72.95M. Value of contract -$55.06M total, -$9.18M annually.

You could easily argue that this contract is much better than Wells’s. Sure, Crawford is more overpaid, but looks likely to give some production for his overpayment – Crawford looks to earn about 56% of his contract, Wells only about 15% of his. Still, in sheer amount, Crawford looks to be more overpaid over the next six years than Wells will be over the next three.

20. Jayson Werth, Washington Nationals. 6 years, $116M.

Expected WAR, 2012-2017: 10.6. Expected value: $51.04M. Value of contract -$64.97M total, -$10.83M annually.

Whenever Nick Cafardo tells us that the Red Sox should’ve signed Werth rather than Crawford, and you shake your head, this is why. Fortunately, Werth’s contract will come off the books before Bryce Harper becomes a free agent.

21. Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies. 5 years, $125M.

Expected WAR, 2012-2016: 10.0. Expected value: $51.04M. Value of contract -$48.09M total, -$15.38M annually.

Howard has averaged 3.0 WAR between his  from ages 29-31. What will a player like that be worth from 32-36? This doesn’t even recognize Howard’s knee injury. This will, of course, make any Phillies fan who reads this want to punch me in the face, because I’m obviously a jerk who doesn’t care about intangibles. Oh well. The difference between Howard’s value, even healthy, and Carlos Pena’s, is almost negligible.

22, and the worst contract in baseball. Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees. 6 years, $143.

Expected WAR, 2012-2017: 3.3. Expected value: $14.78M. Value of contract -$128.23M total, -$21.37M annually.

You would think that, as a Red Sox fan, writing that would make me giddy. It does. Rodriguez stats are so low because he’s getting paid through his age 41 season, where he’s projected to be a good bit below replacement level. If he’s, say, released after the 2015 season, he’ll actually hurt the Yankees less. You’ll see a lot of commentators talking about how Rodriguez is “in the best shape of his life” and is primed for a comeback season. When you see that, remember that his last great season was 2007, which is the same year that Barry Bonds had his last great season. Rodriguez will probably be worth more than 3.3 wins for the rest of his contract – my formula is probably too hard on him. He’s also not going to be worth the 27 wins he’d need to be to earn his contract.Of course, THIS is what people like Campbell worry about when they see Pujols' contract. He should fear not. Pujols has played a less demanding defensive position than Rodriguez did, and, for elite hitters in their 30's, Rodriguez's drop-off is more sudden that other all-time greats like Mays, Aaron and Williams. A-Rod simply isn't a fair comparison for Pujols.

Top Ten Reasons to Watch the World Series

I've heard a few people complaining about the World Series this year, talking about how the "ratings" are going to be too low, how they were rooting for other teams to make it, and on and on. While this wasn't the matchup I was expecting, there are a ton of storylines that any good baseball fan should be excited about. Here are 10 I find appealing.

1. Old vs. New

Up until the Giants and Dodgers moved in 1958, the St. Louis Cardinals were the "western" team in Major League Baseball. They still have a huge fan base throughout the west. This is their 18th National League Pennant, and they are looking for their 11th World Series title - both are leaders among National League Franchises. They're the only team who has appeared in as many as three of the past 10 World Series. Their manager, Tony LaRussa, has won 2,728 games, third most all time. Their best player, Albert Pujols, is the greatest player in the game today, a sure bet Hall of Famer, and, by the time he is finished, may be one of the top 10 players of all time.

The Texas Rangers have never won a World Series. Before last year, they'd never even won a playoff series. They've spent their existence in the shadow of the Dallas Cowboys. "It's a football town" people would say, and the Rangers never really did anything to prove otherwise. In the last couple of years, though, things have changed. Some shrewd moves by GM Jon Daniels and a new organizational philosophy led by team president Nolan Ryan, manager Ron Washington, and, with far less fanfare, pitching coach Mike Maddux has had the Rangers winning, and perhaps more importantly, the fans responding. The Ballpark in Arlington has been louder the last two years than any other stadium in baseball. The New Yankee Stadium has the louder fans pushed back too far - the place doesn't rumble like the old yard. Fenway Park has become too expensive, and the rabid fans of previous decades have been replaced by business customers and yuppies more interested in singing "Sweet Caroline*." Rangers' fans have really picked up the slack. Is it bandwagon jumping, or is this the real deal? It's hard to tell. Football will always be king in Texas, but that doesn't mean baseball can't be huge as well. The Dallas-Arlington-Fort Worth metroplex is the fourth largest in the United States. The three who are larger (NY, LA, Chicago) each have two baseball teams who BOTH get tons of support. Doesn't it seem likely that the Rangers can join them? They've been well-run and have a huge population (a.k.a. revenue) base to work off of. They just signed a new TV contract last fall worth $80M a year. The word "dynasty" was thrown out in a couple spots, which is dumb, because they haven't won a World Series yet, but the Rangers have everything in place to be able to be an annual contender the way the Red Sox and Yankees are. They combine effective traditional scouting and development with smart statistical analysis. They are baseball's new school.

*Ok, I actually like Sweet Caroline. It's a good little ditty. But hearing it over and over in the midst of the Red Sox collapse made it, and the Sox fanbase, something of a laughingstock. The idea that it "rubbed off on the team" was preposterous - the Red Sox didn't lose their lead because they were complacent, they lost because their pitching stunk. The complacency of the fans singing whimsically while their baseball team collapsed around them is a pretty strong narrative of the change in mindset over at Fenway in the last 10 years. Anyway, that's the last I have to say about the Red Sox today. This is about the Cardinals and Rangers. I swear.

2. Star Power.

Albert Pujols. Josh Hamilton. Your 2011 World Series on Fox, coming up next.

That sounds... about right. I mean, doesn't it? Two of the best, most exciting and most popular players in the game, as the centerpiece of their pennant winning teams. Hamilton's season was off quite a bit from his 2010 MVP campaign, but his .536 slugging was still good for 8th in the American League. And his story is well-established.

Albert Pujols had the worst season of his career, when he hit .299/.366/.541. That should pretty much speak for itself. . During the first two round of the playoffs, he's hit .419/.490/.721. His first double of the World Series will set the record for most in a single postseason.

Baseball-reference.com gives him a career WAR of 89,1, good enough for 41st all time. At 31 years old, that puts him immediately below Randy Johnson, Warren Spahn and Cal Ripken. He's 18.3 away from the top 20. Whatever your feeling are on the WAR statistic, it seems to get the overarching career narrative down. Pujols is one of the greatest players of all time, and he's playing in the World Series. Isn't that enough of a reason to watch?

3. Chris Carpenter vs. C.J. Wilson

Twice.

Neither pitching staff did especially much in the league championship series. Carpenter got the win with 5 mediocre innings against the Brewers. C.J. Wilson followed up his bad start in the LDS with a start that didn't get him out of the 5th inning and another where he gave up 6 runs in 6 innings. So far in the playoffs, he has an 8.04 ERA with 6 homers allowed in 15.2 innings.

That's only part of the story. Carpenter pitched a gem in game 5 of the NLDS, a 3 hit, complete game shutout against Roy Halladay. He NEEDED to be that good, too - Halladay gave up only one run. Carpenter was that much better that day, and it's the reason his team is still playing. He had two additional complete game shutouts in September. He's won one Cy Young Award, and also has a second place and third place finish on his resume. Since joining the Cardinals in 2004, he has 95 wins and a 3.04 ERA (good for a 134 ERA+). He is one of the few true, established aces in the game.

C.J. Wilson was a relief pitcher through 2009. Benefitting more than anyone from the tutelage of Nolan Ryan and Mike Maddux, he's complied 427 innings over the past two years. After last year, I was skeptical of his, and the Rangers success. In this year's AL West preview, I wrote that "If he can get that walk rate down from 4.1 per 9 to the mid 3's, then he may be able to keep up his success. If that walk rate stays up though, his ERA will follow." Wilson did more than that - he got his walk rate to a flat 3.0 per nine, and his strikeout rate jumped from 7.5 to 8.3 - the jump in K/BB from 1.83 to 2.78 resulted in a drop in ERA from 3.35 to 2.94. The success of Wilson and the success of the Rangers seem to very much be the same story. Both proved me wrong - the Rangers proved to be a legitimate contender, and Wilson proved to be a legitimate ace.

4. Breakout performers in the 2011 playoffs who aren’t actually that young. 

David Freese. Nelson Cruz. Alexi Ogando. Mike Napoli. Marc Rzepczynski*. Jason Motte. 

Only Freese is younger than 28, and he just had one of the best LCS performances in history. Arbitration eligible, he's been a good player since being called up in 2009, but has probably won himself a nice raise and enough goodwill to not have to compete for the starting 3B job next year. Cruz might not totally belong on this list, because he's made an All-Star team, but his ridiculous ALCS performance demands it. Ogando was named ace of the All-Ugly team. Rzepczynski had a 1.93 ERA and a memorable Game 6 performance where Tony LaRussa actually let a reliever pitch to more than 3 batters. He also has a name that rather lends itself to memorability. Jason Motte has pitched 8 scoreless innings in the playoffs, saving four games. The playoffs lend themselves particularly well to previously little known relievers becoming household names - Brian Wilson appearing in Taco Bell commercials goes to show that power.

For me though, the most satisfying is Mike Napoli. His dominant offensive statistics and lack of playing time led people to write things that would make you think Mike Scioscia was some sort of evil dictator or complete fool. Ok, maybe he is those things, because HE DIDN'T PLAY MIKE NAPOLI. Evoke the name of Matt Stairs, and some smart people, like Bill James and Joe Posnanski, will tell you that if he'd gotten the chance to play in his 20's he might have been a Hall of Famer. People will be saying the same thing about Napoli, only there is more evidence to back it up. He's been a dominant offensive player for six years, and he now gets the chance to show everyone.

*Note: On my original draft of this, I correctly spelled Rzepczynski, but misspelled "Marc," ending it with a k. Sounds about right.

5. Bullpens – overused or just awesome?

In the NLCS, St. Louis starting pitchers had only 24.1 innings in six games, leaving 28.2 for the bullpen. Tony LaRussa made 28 pitching changes, 4.66 per game. Yet they managed to win 3 games and compile a 1.88 ERA. Lance Lynn, not even on the previous rounds roster, pitched in 5 games. He gave up zero runs. Rzepczynski also pitched in 5 games. In game 6, he pitched 2.1 innings; in the other four games, he pitched a total of 2.1 innings. 

In the ALCS, Texas starting pitcher made it 28.2 innings in their six games, leaving but a meager 27.1 for the bullpen. Ron Washington made 25 pitching changes, 4.12 per game. Yet their bullpen won all four games, with a 1.32 ERA. Mike Adams pitched in 5 games, Feliz and Ogando in four apiece. Ogando, arguably the teams second best starter all year, won two of their games and gave up only 1 run in 7.2 innings, striking out 10. What appeared to be a tired arm down the stretch appears to be revitalized pitching in shorter stretches. 

Can they keep it up? This sort of usage is extreme, and it's easy to say "if these teams want to win, they're going to get more use out of their starters. But the truth is that both teams, particularly the Rangers, have a TON of talent in their bullpens. I wouldn't ADVISE a strategy that involves taking out your starter in the 5th inning with the bases loaded and 6 runs already allowed, but both these teams have the offensive firepower and bullpen talent to overcome it.

6. Implications for Free Agents

Ok, this isn't something I'm personally interested in, because I hate to see good players leave good teams. Baseball is definitely better off if Albert Pujols stays on the Cardinals, and probably better off if C.J. Wilson does the same. Equally importantly, both players are probably better off if they stay in the same place, as the enormous goodwill for Michael Young shows. There's something to be said for a player being identifiable with a team. If Jorge Posada wasn't a Yankee in 1996, he wouldn't have been one in 2011. That said, the story is there, and will be talked about. 

The truth is, there's nothing Albert Pujols could do in this series to change his value, other than perhaps suffer some horrific injury. If he went 16 for 18 with 12 home runs, he probably wouldn't earn one cent more. If he goes 0 for 18 and strikes out 14 times, he probably won't get one cent less. His record of excellence is established, and anyone who thinks they're going to measure him based on four to seven games is a fool. Be ready, though, for a lot of "will this be Albert's final this, this and this as a member of the Cardinals."

Measuring CJ Wilson on the (possible) two games he'll pitch in this series is probably just as silly, but he certainly has a chance to set perception of him as an elite performer. He will be the best free agent pitcher available - I'm ignoring CC Sabathia who will almost definitely a) listen to some posturing about how the Yankees would not be happy to renegotiate with Sabathia if he opts out, b) exercise his opt-out clause, then  c) resign with the Yankees, for six or seven years, in relatively short order. There's little that shocks me anymore in baseball, but a chain of events that isn't as I described would at least surprise me. Anyhow, that leaves Wilson as the best starting pitcher available as a free agent. Wilson is on the cusp of ace-ville. He has 9.4 WAR over the past two years, going 31-15 with a 3.14 ERA in 67 starts, striking out 376 and walking 176 in a pretty tough place to pitch. In the playoffs, though? He's 1-4, with a 5.40 ERA. He's completed six innings in just 3 of his seven starts, never completing seven. Fair or not, a mediocre or poor World Series will solidify him in the minds of many as a good pitcher, but something less than a franchise player. A big Series, and he could be looking at $100M plus. 

There are other free agents - Edwin Jackson probably has a nice deal coming - but Pujols and Wilson are going to get the bulk of the attention.

7. The impact of potential over-management.

 LaRussa, as I wrote here, took out Lance Lynn for no reason in Game 2. Washington, I wrote here, had Josh Hamilton bunt in a game he was losing 6-0. (It came out the next day that Washington did not put on the bunt sign, but he thought it was a good play. I'm sure that's just protecting Hamilton, but it would've been ok for him to say something like "I love that he was willing to give him up for the team, but we need Josh to be swinging there").

I discussed above the number of pitching changes both managers made. Part of that was necessitated by poor starting pitcher performance. Part was just overdoing it on the matchups. LaRussa loves the sacrifice bunt, with 57 non-pitcher bunts. Leading the way was Daniel Descalso, who sacrificed 10 times - including twice when he was put in as a pinch hitter. Neither manager employs the intentional walk frequently, which is nice. Washington used the second fewest in the majors, with 21. His intentional walk of Miguel Cabrera very nearly burned him - it took a fantastic Nelson Cruz throw to get him off the hook.

So, I don't think we'll be in a situation where it's a repeat of 2001's Game 4, when Bob Brenly THRICE had Craig Counsell sacrifice Tony Womack, a strategy that produced a run in zero of those three chances, and the Diamondbacks lost by one run. That is still my go-to bad managing moment. Keep an eye on the pitching changes, though. Both managers got good results on their pitching changes in the LCS, but good results aren't always the product of good decisions. Both of these teams have offenses good enough to make an ill-timed pitching change look really, really bad.

8. The re-emergence of batting average. 

Batting average has taken a lot of heat in recent years, and with good reason - it doesn't correspond to run scoring as well as on-base percentage or slugging percentage, and it is subject to huge variation based on luck in balls in play. However, that doesn't mean batting average is useless. Guys like Wade Boggs, Tony Gwynn, Ichiro Suzuki and Derek Jeter hit for high batting averages for years, despite not hitting for much power. Why? Because hitting for average is a skill. It's true that there is variation based on luck, and it's true that some players fluctuate more than others. That doesn't completely devalue the statistic totally, it just means you need to be cognizant of possible external factors.

There's been a line of thinking, one that I'm trying to do some research on whenever I get the chance, that teams who are good at hitting for average succeed in the playoffs. Why? Because they are better at hitting good pitches. Teams with a low batting average that rely on walks and the home run have trouble in the playoffs, because the teams they are playing against are likely there because their pitcher do a good job avoiding walks and home runs. This was pointed to a lot when The Oakland A's lost in the first round four straight years in the early 00's, but that was partially because traditionalists were trying to find any reason the de-legitimatize the statistical approach of Billy Beane and, somewhat ironically, tried to use statistics to do it. "My statistic is better than your statistic" became the baseball version of "my dad could beat up your dad." In this case though, maybe there was something it. After all, it sounded reasonable.

So far in 2011, the team with the better regular season batting average has won all six series. That includes Detroit, who beat the higher scoring New York Yankees, and Milwaukee, who beat the higher scoring Arizona Diamondbacks. The story was especially prevalent in that Tigers-Yankees series, where the middle third of the New York order, Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez, and Nick Swisher, all notably struggled. All three hit below .280 and derive much of their value from power and patience. This is particularly true of Teixeira, who is now .207/.315/.322 in the playoffs in 143 plate appearances .

This is a small sample that doesn't "prove" anything, but if it had been the Moneyball A's rather than the Moneybag Yankees who did this, the narrative would be less that the players choked, and more that the organizational approach failed.

9. We’re on schedule for a really, really, really good one.

I've been watching baseball since 1988. The two best World Series of my baseball watching life were 1991 and 2001. There really isn't too much debate about it. Both are generally talked about as being among the best of all time. Following that pattern, 2011 should be classic.

10. The Yankees aren’t here. 

Which is awesome. The World Series is always more enjoyable to me when the Yankees are either not there, or lose. Either way. 

There's a larger point though. I've read a couple articles about how low the TV ratings are probably going to be for these two teams. So what? Do you choose your favorite TV show based on how many people watch? Are the best movies the ones that make the most money? Of course not. Baseball, as I've pointed out several times, shoots itself in the foot by constantly promoting the same teams. In the last seven years, the Yankees have been in one World Series, and the Red Sox have been in one World Series. The Cardinals and Rangers are both in their second in that span. 

So if you're choosing not to watch because of the way MLB chooses to promote themselves (or, more accurately, how ESPN and Fox choose to promote them - the MLB Network actually does a good job at least trying to promote the entire league), you deserve to miss out.


So that's it. 10 reasons to watch. If that's not enough for you, I'm sorry.

My prediction? Rangers in 7.

After all, they had the better batting average this year. 

Why Tony LaRussa is Allowed to Overmanage

The Second Half Begins - A Few Random Thoughts

-Oakland pitcher and Dunne Deal favorite Brett Anderson has apparently undergone Tommy John surgery, ending his season. Anderson has one of the highest percentages of sliders thrown in baseball, so the Francisco Liriano comparisons are inevitable. Provided he can make a full recovery, it will be interesting to see if he lowers his sliders to closer to 20-25% of the time, and, if so, if he can continue to be successful.

-I was posed this question on another site - with money not a concern, who would you prefer: Mark Teixeira or Kevin Youkilis?

	Tm	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+	PA/HR	PA/BB	PA/K
Youkilis	BOS	1381	.301	.409	.544	149	23.4	7.5	5.3
Teixeira	NYY	1802	.268	.370	.522	133	18.6	8.1	6.2

Youkilis has been a much better hitter since the start of 2009 (when Teixeira joined the Yankees), but Teixeira has been the much more durable player. It's not just the last two months of last season, Youkilis always seems to have some sort of injury bothering him. Even so, Youkilis has a much better WAR (14.9 to 11.7), which is a cumulative stat, and can play 3B acceptably.http://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gif

-Albert Pujols, since May 30th (106 PA): .333/.425/.744. Right now he is 10th in the NL with a .500 slugging percentage, only 9 points out of the top 10. Anyone want to bet that he won't be in the top 10 a week from now?

-Too much ink is being spilled on how to improve the Home Run Derby. It's a Home Run Derby! The only idea I've liked is a bracketing system, but that certainly won't make the thing any shorter.

-The Matt Moore hype train is picking up. Keith Law has him at #2 on his mid-season prospect list. (Insider access only) It's depth like this that allowed the Rays to trade Matt Garza. Mike Trout (who was his preseason #1) is not included on the list by virtue of his promotion to the majors last week.

-Manny Delcarmen was released yesterday. After an excellent 2007 season, his performance has declined every year. His next stop may be the independents.

-Quick second half predictions. I think the Red Sox win the East, provided two of the Lester/Buchholz/Beckett trio are healthy. The Rangers take the west, based on their depth. Detroit holds off the Indians. The Yankees take the wild card, as they try to rest their stars enough in the second half to make sure they are 100% for October. In the NL, the Phillies make a run at 100 wins and win the East. The Rockies make a run, but the Giants hold them off to repeat in the West. The Brewers are in first place with awful performances from the left side of the infield. They'll adjust there and win based on talent. Like the AL, the Eastern division produces the wild card, in this case, the Braves.