Good luck, Youk

So, I arrived home last night from an amazing two-week honeymoon to Austria, Slovenia, and Croatia to find that Kevin Youklis was traded to the Chicago White Sox yesterday in exchange for right-handed pitcher Zach Stewart and utility infielder Brent Lillibridge. The trade analysis is almost painfully simple. The Red Sox have had a better designated hitter and a better first baseman for a couple years now, and with the emergence of Will Middlebrooks, have a better third baseman. Youkilis - one of the best hitters alive from 2008-2010, with a .308/.404/.560 line - no longer had a place in the Red Sox lineup.

It's been a bit of a crazy few months for us Red Sox fans. First, Tim Wakefield officially retired. Then, a few days later, Jason Varitek followed suit. Now Youkilis has been traded, leaving David Ortiz as the only player with a 2004 World Series ring left with the team.

Red Sox fans have been following Youkilis since even before his famous inclusion in Moneyball. The 2001 tenth rounder out of the University of Cincinnati had been tearing up the minor leagues, rising fairly quickly through the Red Sox system until he reached Pawtucket, where he continued to mash but waiting a long time for his chance. Injuries got him some playing time in 2004, and the poor play of Kevin Millar led to calls from several circles to give him playing time the following year. Finally, in 2006 he beat out J.T. Snow for the starting first baseman job. (Admit it. You forgot J.T. Snow was on the Red Sox).

He played fairly well that year, came into his own in '07, and turned into a star in '08. In all, he spent six excellent years as a starter, working deep counts and ripping doubles inside the left field foul line. His grimacing (I believe it was Joe Magrane who said the look he makes after a called strike resembled a "bitter beer face") and bat throwing and shouting made him into something of a lightning rod, being a player that people either loved or loathed, but even his detractors appreciated his production.

Losing his job to Will Middlebrooks this year seemed almost poetic, as this season has marked something of a generational shift in the Red Sox. Varitek, Wakefield, Youkilis, Papelbon, Drew, Epstein and Francona are now all gone. A year ago, the departure of any one of them wouldn't have been surprising, but the loss of all of them in such a short time seems almost seismic. The current Red Sox would be unrecognizable to someone who saw them only one year ago. I can visualize my mother, listning to the game on the radio and asking me "who are these guys?"

Even though the move is sensible, it's impossible not to be sentimental. Youkilis was immediately recognizable, fiery, and really, really good. I miss that bitter beer face already.

Michael Restovich and Wily Mo Pena have New Homes

Yesterday was a big day around baseball - major trades, a no-hitter, a Mariner win - so I won't blame anyone who didn't notice that Dunne Deal fan favorite Michael Restovich was dealt yesterday from the Chicago White Sox to the Arizona Diamondbacks for cash considerations. The release of Wily Mo Pena and call up of Collin Cowgill left the Triple A Reno Aces a little short on outfield depth. This led to the acquisition of Restovich, who was a BA top 100 prospect four times from 1999 to 2003, peaking at #26 in 2000.

Restovich, now 32, hasn't played in the majors since 2007. After very good minor league seasons in 2009 and 2010, he was hitting only .229/.282/.365 in 103 plate appearances this year. A consistent power source in the minors (211 career homers in the US minor leagues), his propensity to strike out and his poor defense have limited his chances in the majors: in 297 plate appearances, he has a .239/.313/.377 line with 68 strikeouts. In short, he's a less extreme version of Wily Mo Pena, with less prodigious power, less frequent strikeouts, less abysmal defense. He's probably been a better player than a few of the guys who have gotten shots in the last 10 years. He makes sensible depth on the Diamondbacks who don't value pure athleticism quite as much as the White Sox and a few other teams, and who are willing to give chances to failed top prospects from last decade who they think can help them (Pena, Sean Burroughs, Yhency Brazoban).

Speaking of Wily Mo Pena, he signed a minor league contract with the Seattle Mariners this week. Mariner DH's have a .216/.328/.312, led by Jack Cust's take n' rake approach. Unfortunately, that approach only works when you both take AND rake, and Cust has rarely done the second, with three homers in 269 plate appearances. Rather than take n' rake, Pena has spent his career firmly planted in the "swing hard in case you hit it" category. He hits the ball about as hard as anyone I've ever seen, in the category with Gary Sheffield and Vlad Guerrero in their primes. His career line of .251/.304/.449 would represent Pena's true ability, and it would be an upgrade for the Mariners. His 46 plate appearances with the Diamondbacks represent extreme-Wily Mo: .196/.196/.522, with five home runs, 0 walks, and 19 strikeouts.

Pena is still only 29 (supposedly), and hit .363/.439/.726 in hitter-friendly Reno. To call him an "upgrade" over Jack Cust might be a misnomer, since they're such different types of hitters. Pena has exactly one skill, but it is a useful skill, especially in the DH league. I certainly wouldn't want to depend on him in a pennant race, but in two months of trying to bring excitement and play spoiler? Pena's the perfect choice, an exciting hitter who won't be taking plate appearances away from anyone who will be part of the next Mariner contender.


Aside: A note to both of my readers - it's been a busy couple days in baseball, as I mentioned above, and I haven't had a chance to write quite as much this week. As such, I have quite a bit to write about. I'm going to write in smaller, more concentrated posts, since they're about some pretty variant topics. This isn't an attempt to increase my "hit count" or what have you, but for ease of reading. People can simply skip over topics they are uninterested in. Is this something you prefer? Or is it easier for you if a single column is posted? Comment below or e-mail at jamesdunne24@gmail.com to let me know.

Have you seen this man?

10/14/05














No. You haven’t seen this man. Not in over a week. Yet he may be the biggest reason the Angels are down 2-1 to the Chicago White Sox

He’s not Doug Eddings. He’s not Josh Paul. He’s Casey Kotchman.

Angel fans, readers of Baseball America, and those who have the distinct pleasure of watching a baseball game with me know who Kotchman is. If you don’t fall into one of those groups, the name may be new to you. Casey Kotchman may very well be the second best hitter on the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.

Now you may be saying, wait, if he’s the second best hitter on the team, why haven’t I seen him in the entire playoffs? That’s a good question, and one that someone should probably ask Mike Scioscia.

Kotchman was called up for good in August, and ended up with just fewer than 150 plate appearances on the season. So it seems that the Angels are weary of letting a guy with such little experience bat with so much on the line. Which is nice for all the opposing right-handers the Angels have faced so far in the postseason.

Look at Kotchman’s numbers this season, compared to those who are in the lineup instead. (VORP is a cumulative stat by the guys at Baseball Prospectus. It measures players factoring position, park effect, and a bunch of things I just don't have the equipment to do).

	PA	HR	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	VORP
C. Kotchman	143	7	22	.278	.352	.484	9.2
D. Erstad	667	7	66	.273	.325	.371	9.7
J. Rivera	376	15	59	.271	.316	.454	10.2
S. Finley	440	12	54	.222	.271	.374	-2.5

Not only are Kotchman’s rate stats higher, but also his cumulative stats are almost as high as the regulars. Think that looks bad? Check out against Right-handed pitchers:

	PA	HR	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG
C. Kotchman	111	7	20	.286	.355	.551
D. Erstad	455	4	46	.291	.337	.396
J. Rivera	226	11	38	.284	.326	.498
S. Finley	314	9	33	.201	.252	.347

Kotchman hasn’t exactly crawled out of the woodwork either. He was a first round draft pick in 2001, and has been at the top of prospect lists ever since, while tearing up each level of the minors. So he has the pedigree to match his performance.

Ok, so based on the numbers here, Juan Rivera seems to deserve a spot in the lineup. And Darin Erstad is the Angels unofficial captain, and as a guy who came up big for them in the 2002 postseason, I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt.

What about Steve Finley though? He was just as bad as an every day player could be this year. Only a stint on the disabled list cost him from having the lowest OPS of any regular in the American League. So why is he in the lineup? Is it because of his defense? Erstad was a Gold Glove CF as recently as 2002, and wasn’t moved because of any injury, so it’s hard to believe he’s forgotten how to play the position. Is it out of loyalty? Can’t be that, he was just signed as a free agent. So there’s really only one explanation. Finley signed a big free agent contract this past off season, and the Angels apparently feel the need to get at least some return on their investment. Instead what they may be getting is a ticket home while the White Sox march toward the World Series.

This was never more apparent than the 8^th inning in tonight’s ALCS Game 3. John Garland had cruised through the first six innings, but showed some wear in the 7^th, giving up a two run homer to Orlando Cabrera. After Kevin Gregg held the White Sox scoreless in the top of the 8^th, the Angels needed to claw back some more. To lead off the inning Mike Scioscia finally went to his bench for a pinch hitter.

He went to Jeff DaVanon.

After DaVanon was retired on a broken bat grounder. Steve Finley came up. After a couple of fouls straight back, Lou Pinella noted that Garland was leaving his pitches up in the zone, almost hangars. Garland left three more fastballs up in the zone, the first two of which, Finley fouled off. The last one, he hit a line drive to medium depth right field, for the second out of the inning. The Angels didn’t score again.

Chances are, Kotchman wouldn’t have hit any of those balls out of the park either. In fact, if Kotchman comes to the plate, the White Sox probably bring Neil Cotts into the game. But wouldn’t you rather take your chances with a 22-year-old rising star with a .900 OPS against right-handers than a 40+ year whose star appears to have fallen to the tune of making outs a quarter of the times he comes to the plate?

Mike Scioscia didn’t think so, and it’s one of the reasons he is looking at a 2-1 deficit.