Left-handers Miguel Pena and Hunter Cervenka and right-hander Tyler Lockwood combined to throw the first nine-inning no-hitter
in Greenville Drive history this afternoon, beating the Rome Braves, 1-0.
Continue to SoxProspects.com to read the rest of this article
Tuesday, May 08, 2012
Monday, May 07, 2012
Johan Santana gets first win since 2010
Johan Santana hasn't had very good luck the last few years.
First, he lost the 2005 Cy Young Award to Bartolo Colon in what was probably the last year that voters for that category cared about pitcher wins. With all the criticism of the BBWAA over the past several years for their award voting, they made Zack Greinke the Cy Young Award winner in 2009, Felix Hernandez in 2010. That shift has happened, and if the 2005 Awards were voted today, I have no doubt that Santana would win - possibly unanimously.
Second, he got traded to the Mets. Seriously, that's more bad luck than any individual deserves.What's worse, he seems to get a lot of the blame as the Mets have spent the past several seasons as a bit of an embarrassment. With that in mind, I'm going to make a semi-controversial statement:
Trading for Johan Santana was one of the best deals in Mets' franchise history.
Ok, that seems nuts. He's costing them a ton of money, and the Mets haven't done anything for years. So let me explain in a bit more depth.
First off, the Mets traded NOTHING of value to get Santana. As I've discussed in this space, Bill Smith got absolutely fleeced trading the best pitcher alive. Perhaps you would argue that the Mets don't deserve any credit for ripping off Bill Smith, since that seems to have been a general trend of the past several years, and I would grant you that point. Still, every other team out there had a chance to rip of Smith - the Mets stepped up and got it done.
Second, Santana has been very good on the Mets. Not as good as he was from 2004 to 2007 with the Twins, but still, quite good. He's now appeared in 94 games with the Mets, In 631.0 innings, he has a 2.84 ERA, good for a 143 ERA+. For comparison, he had a 141 ERA+ with the Twins. That includes the 2000 and 2001 season where Santana worked as a reliever and wasn't good yet, but the idea that Santana has been a significantly worse pitcher with the Mets than they expected is just not correct. His peripherals have remained strong as well, with 530 strikeouts against 176 walks, putting him with a K/BB ratio just over 3.0. He's also given up slightly under a home run per 9 innings.
After missing the entire 2011 season, Santana has pitched effectively in his first six starts of this season. He has allowed more than 1 run only twice, and now has three consecutive quality starts. He should have won his first game before Saturday, but don't forget, he pitches for the Mets. At a 9.87 K/9 rate and 2.61 ERA, and only 1 home run allowed, he is pitching like an ace. Of course, he's pitched like an ace for a long time. Maybe he hasn't always been healthy, but he's pretty much always been very good.
The question now turns to what is next. Santana is owed roughly $46 million more over the next season and three-quarters. That's elite pitcher money, and while he looks like an elite pitcher so far this year, he still missed the entire 2011 season with a right shoulder injury. He's become the personification of high-risk/high-reward - he could be the best pitcher on a championship team, or he could break.
I do believe that Santana will be traded. The Mets are not going to compete this year, and probably will not next year. The Mets need to begin rebuilding their organization in earnest, and the Alderson/DePodesta team inspires much more confidence than previous regimes. As far as destination spots, the usual suspects are there. The Red Sox and Yankees both have miserable starting pitching, and may be willing to take on his contract. However, I'm going to suggest that Santana ends up with a less likely suitor in the same division: the Toronto Blue Jays.
The Blue Jays, who lost out in their pursuit of Yu Darvish, have the money to spend, and the prospects to deal. They have a significant interest in making a deal as well - with a second wild card added, it's hard to picture the Jays being out of contention. Ricky Romero and Brandon Morrow have pitched well, but adding a top starter would really make them a serious contender. They play excellent defense and have significant power. Jose Bautista will NOT have a .177 BABIP this season (correcting his BABIP up to .304 would give him a season line of .279/.391/.452). Furthermore, unlike the Yankees and Red Sox, selling out the Skydome can be a goal for the Jays in this playoff-starved city. With the Raptors an afterthought, and a Maple Leafs team that locals would love an excuse to not think about for a summer, the Toronto sports scene is ripe for the plucking. Usually I'm against deals meant to "create excitement" but the advantage here is higher than usual. A move would send a clear sign that this Blue Jays team is not content to play for third place.
Alex Anthropoulos has gained a reputation as a shrewd GM, Mike Napoli for Frank Francisco aside. The Mets would not be able to rip him off. However, Anthropoulos also doesn't seem to be scared of taking a risk. Santana would seem like a sensible one.
As far as the Mets are concerned, they may be able to get a better haul for Santana in 2012 than Omar Minaya gave up for him after the 2007. Read that last sentence again, and you'll probably understand why the Twins stink right now.
SoxProspects: Cup of Coffee: Anderson, Ciriaco lead PawSox over Pettitte
5/7 Cup of Coffee: Pawtucket knocked around a rehabbing Andy
Pettitte, Portland's pitching shut down New Britain, and a balanced
attack led Greenville over Rome. Defensive miscues were Salem's downfall
in the only loss of the afternoon.
Friday, May 04, 2012
What do we know?
Welcome back! I apologize for the negligence in posting regularly - I just finished up my first year of graduate school, so posting here was lower on the priority list. It's disappointing though, because we had a pretty exciting first month of the baseball season. Bryce Harper and Mike Trout have been called up, probably for good. Jered Weaver has thrown a no-hitter, and Phil Humber a perfect game. The Rays and Rangers have emerged (unsurprisingly, especially in the Rangers' case) as teams that appear elite. Matt Kemp may now be the best player in baseball - a subject that deserves attention in more detail further down the road.
Today, I just want to go into some of the stuff we now know. It's easy to make overly rash judgments based on a month of games, but in truth, the first month usually IS a good indicator of things to come. Sure, people read too much into flukes and slumps, but there are some things that it's ok to read into. So, a month in to the 2012 season, here is some stuff I think I know.
Note: SOMETHING on this list will turn out laughably wrong, and will be saved on the internet forever. I have no idea what that is. If I did, I wouldn't write it. Just keep that in mind.
1. If Stephen Strasburg is healthy, he is really, really good.
Strasburg has now thrown 124.0 innings as a major leaguer. He has a 2.18 ERA, 150 strikeouts, and 25 walks. He has now gone 64.1 innings since allowing his last home run. It's too early in the season for WAR to be truly meaningful, but his is 2.5 according to Baseball-Reference, best in all of baseball. If you've gotten the chance to watch him pitch, it's easy to see why - his fastball, overhand curve and changeup give him three pitches that are better than just about any other pitcher's best. He's a pitching freak, and for baseball's sake, I hope he stays healthy. If you believe in the whole "Inverted-W" mechanics being a major flaw, then you have reason to be worried. All the more reason to enjoy him now.
2. Mark Prior just signed a minor league contract with the Red Sox.
This, of course, is why we need to enjoy Strasburg now. Mark Prior, sadly, is now THE cautionary tale of phenom pitchers who broke down. The thing is, nobody can say for certain why Prior broke down - was it his mechanics, was it his overuse, was it just because some pitchers break? He will apparently pitch out of the bullpen in his attempt to work his way back up to the Sox.
3. Yu Darvish looks really quite good.
One of the reasons the Rangers have emerged over the past three years as one of the best organizations in baseball is their pitching. With that in mind, this was the best possible place for Darvish to land. Through his first five starts, Darvish is 4-0 with a 2.18 ERA, with 33 strikeouts and 17 walks in 33.0 innings pitched. That walk total a little high for you? In his last two starts, against the Blue Jays and Yankees, he has pitched 15.1 innings, striking out 19 while walking 4, allowing just 1 run. Those two teams are third and fourth in the American League in walks, by the way, so it's not like he's pitching to a bunch of free swingers. He's settling in. Don't panic if there are adjustments to be made down the line, but Darvish looks, early on, like an ace.
4. The best place to find starting pitching may be your own bullpen. The Texas Rangers can be thanked for this.
It makes sense, doesn't it? Almost every successful major league pitcher comes up through the minors as a starter. There's an occasional college closer, sure, but usually players are put into relief because of a need. If this were 2007, Neftali Feliz, Daniel Bard, Chris Sale and Lance Lynn would likely all be in the bullpen (the first three, without question). Lynn and Sale have been fantastic in the rotation, while Feliz and Bard have had more mixed reviews. The upside here clearly outmatches the downside, though. Suppose Feliz continues to walk a few too many people. The Rangers can send him back to the pen - they'll have a valuable reliever, and can take comfort in knowing they are getting the maximum value out of him. Compare that to the Red Sox usage of Jonathan Papelbon, who likely would have turned into an excellent starter (and made himself twice as much money as a free agent), and relieved several of the depth issues the Sox had in their rotation between 2008 and 2011. So, while the infuriating closer usage patterns that developed in the late 1980's have not yet passed on, teams have finally re-identified the relative value of starting pitchers vs. relief pitchers.
This, which I will post in greater depth at a later date, is what Moneyball was supposed to be about. The point wasn't that college players and OBP were good - it was that they were undervalued. After the A's won in the early 00's, the market adjusted. Teams drafted smarter (a trend clearly visible if you look at the performance of first rounders in recent years compared to 15 years prior), and valued guys who didn't make outs. The Rangers are the team that exploited the next inefficiency, which was reliever usage. With C.J. Wilson, Alexi Ogando and now Neftali Feliz, they have found what had been an inefficiency, to free up the money to sign players like Darvish and Adrian Beltre. Keep an eye on relief phenom Robbie Ross, who could be in the Rangers 2013 rotation.
5. Free Alexi Ogando
An addendum to the previous paragraphs. After an solid year in the rotation last year, the Rangers have moved Ogando back to the bullpen. Not necessarily because they think he can't start, but because they think they have five better starters. They may be right about that. The Rangers sixth starter would be a top three starter on most teams, and the #1 on a couple. To his credit, instead of sulking in the pen, he has been marvelous. 12.2 innings pitched, 5 hits, 1 run allowed, no walks, 12 strikeouts. It would be possible to see him moved in a deal for a slugging first baseman if one were to become available, but there's no obvious counterpart out there.
6. Matt Wieters is breaking out
After enormous expectations on him as a rookie in 2009, his three year line of .265/.328/.415 with solid defense at catcher (8.3 WAR over the three years, according to B-Ref) was considered a disappointment. The expectations had become something of a curse, making it hard to enjoy the fact that Wieters had become one of the ten best catchers in the game. While 22 games isn't enough to say he's made the leap, it's impossible not to be impressed with a .303/.391/.618 line
7. No Pujols, No Carpenter, No Problem
I was among the many who thought the Cardinals would struggle this year, especially after hearing that Carpenter was having disc problems. Instead, they have baseball's best run differential, and the best record in the National League. Can they keep it up? Well, Lance Lynn and David Freese might be emerging stars, but I'm fairly confident that Kyle Lohse, Jake Westbrook and Jon Jay are playing way over thier heads. I'm also not confident in Carlos Beltran's ability to stay healthy. On the other hand, Lance Berkman has appeared in only 7 games, and Adam Wainwright has struggled after coming back from Tommy John surgery. If Wainwright puts it together (and his strikeout and walk numbers indicate that he will), and one of the Berkman/Beltran duo can stay healthy at a time (debatable), the Cardinals should, at worst, be competing with the Reds and potentially the Brewers.
8. Alex Rodriguez is no longer an elite player
Say it over and over. Repeat it every time you hear an announcer talk about how feared he is. Think about it especially hard when, for the next few spring trainings, we hear stories about how the guy is in "the best shape of his life." I hate to keep beating up on the guy (HA - don't believe that for a second, I enjoy it with every fiber of my being... ahem), but his OPS has crawled steadily downward for six years now. The fact that every home run he hits gets replayed on SportsCenter makes it seem like he has more than the 4 he does right now. Among 95 AL qualifiers, he is 48th in slugging, one point behind Alcides Escobar. I'm very skeptical at this point that he'll break Bonds' record of 762. Even if he stays healthy, a big if, I don't see him cracking 700 until mid 2014 at the earliest. Fortunately for the rest of baseball, he IS quite likely to get to 660, costing the Yankees a whole ton of money over the next six years.
Today, I just want to go into some of the stuff we now know. It's easy to make overly rash judgments based on a month of games, but in truth, the first month usually IS a good indicator of things to come. Sure, people read too much into flukes and slumps, but there are some things that it's ok to read into. So, a month in to the 2012 season, here is some stuff I think I know.
Note: SOMETHING on this list will turn out laughably wrong, and will be saved on the internet forever. I have no idea what that is. If I did, I wouldn't write it. Just keep that in mind.
1. If Stephen Strasburg is healthy, he is really, really good.
Strasburg has now thrown 124.0 innings as a major leaguer. He has a 2.18 ERA, 150 strikeouts, and 25 walks. He has now gone 64.1 innings since allowing his last home run. It's too early in the season for WAR to be truly meaningful, but his is 2.5 according to Baseball-Reference, best in all of baseball. If you've gotten the chance to watch him pitch, it's easy to see why - his fastball, overhand curve and changeup give him three pitches that are better than just about any other pitcher's best. He's a pitching freak, and for baseball's sake, I hope he stays healthy. If you believe in the whole "Inverted-W" mechanics being a major flaw, then you have reason to be worried. All the more reason to enjoy him now.
2. Mark Prior just signed a minor league contract with the Red Sox.
This, of course, is why we need to enjoy Strasburg now. Mark Prior, sadly, is now THE cautionary tale of phenom pitchers who broke down. The thing is, nobody can say for certain why Prior broke down - was it his mechanics, was it his overuse, was it just because some pitchers break? He will apparently pitch out of the bullpen in his attempt to work his way back up to the Sox.
3. Yu Darvish looks really quite good.
One of the reasons the Rangers have emerged over the past three years as one of the best organizations in baseball is their pitching. With that in mind, this was the best possible place for Darvish to land. Through his first five starts, Darvish is 4-0 with a 2.18 ERA, with 33 strikeouts and 17 walks in 33.0 innings pitched. That walk total a little high for you? In his last two starts, against the Blue Jays and Yankees, he has pitched 15.1 innings, striking out 19 while walking 4, allowing just 1 run. Those two teams are third and fourth in the American League in walks, by the way, so it's not like he's pitching to a bunch of free swingers. He's settling in. Don't panic if there are adjustments to be made down the line, but Darvish looks, early on, like an ace.
4. The best place to find starting pitching may be your own bullpen. The Texas Rangers can be thanked for this.
It makes sense, doesn't it? Almost every successful major league pitcher comes up through the minors as a starter. There's an occasional college closer, sure, but usually players are put into relief because of a need. If this were 2007, Neftali Feliz, Daniel Bard, Chris Sale and Lance Lynn would likely all be in the bullpen (the first three, without question). Lynn and Sale have been fantastic in the rotation, while Feliz and Bard have had more mixed reviews. The upside here clearly outmatches the downside, though. Suppose Feliz continues to walk a few too many people. The Rangers can send him back to the pen - they'll have a valuable reliever, and can take comfort in knowing they are getting the maximum value out of him. Compare that to the Red Sox usage of Jonathan Papelbon, who likely would have turned into an excellent starter (and made himself twice as much money as a free agent), and relieved several of the depth issues the Sox had in their rotation between 2008 and 2011. So, while the infuriating closer usage patterns that developed in the late 1980's have not yet passed on, teams have finally re-identified the relative value of starting pitchers vs. relief pitchers.
This, which I will post in greater depth at a later date, is what Moneyball was supposed to be about. The point wasn't that college players and OBP were good - it was that they were undervalued. After the A's won in the early 00's, the market adjusted. Teams drafted smarter (a trend clearly visible if you look at the performance of first rounders in recent years compared to 15 years prior), and valued guys who didn't make outs. The Rangers are the team that exploited the next inefficiency, which was reliever usage. With C.J. Wilson, Alexi Ogando and now Neftali Feliz, they have found what had been an inefficiency, to free up the money to sign players like Darvish and Adrian Beltre. Keep an eye on relief phenom Robbie Ross, who could be in the Rangers 2013 rotation.
5. Free Alexi Ogando
An addendum to the previous paragraphs. After an solid year in the rotation last year, the Rangers have moved Ogando back to the bullpen. Not necessarily because they think he can't start, but because they think they have five better starters. They may be right about that. The Rangers sixth starter would be a top three starter on most teams, and the #1 on a couple. To his credit, instead of sulking in the pen, he has been marvelous. 12.2 innings pitched, 5 hits, 1 run allowed, no walks, 12 strikeouts. It would be possible to see him moved in a deal for a slugging first baseman if one were to become available, but there's no obvious counterpart out there.
6. Matt Wieters is breaking out
After enormous expectations on him as a rookie in 2009, his three year line of .265/.328/.415 with solid defense at catcher (8.3 WAR over the three years, according to B-Ref) was considered a disappointment. The expectations had become something of a curse, making it hard to enjoy the fact that Wieters had become one of the ten best catchers in the game. While 22 games isn't enough to say he's made the leap, it's impossible not to be impressed with a .303/.391/.618 line
7. No Pujols, No Carpenter, No Problem
I was among the many who thought the Cardinals would struggle this year, especially after hearing that Carpenter was having disc problems. Instead, they have baseball's best run differential, and the best record in the National League. Can they keep it up? Well, Lance Lynn and David Freese might be emerging stars, but I'm fairly confident that Kyle Lohse, Jake Westbrook and Jon Jay are playing way over thier heads. I'm also not confident in Carlos Beltran's ability to stay healthy. On the other hand, Lance Berkman has appeared in only 7 games, and Adam Wainwright has struggled after coming back from Tommy John surgery. If Wainwright puts it together (and his strikeout and walk numbers indicate that he will), and one of the Berkman/Beltran duo can stay healthy at a time (debatable), the Cardinals should, at worst, be competing with the Reds and potentially the Brewers.
8. Alex Rodriguez is no longer an elite player
Say it over and over. Repeat it every time you hear an announcer talk about how feared he is. Think about it especially hard when, for the next few spring trainings, we hear stories about how the guy is in "the best shape of his life." I hate to keep beating up on the guy (HA - don't believe that for a second, I enjoy it with every fiber of my being... ahem), but his OPS has crawled steadily downward for six years now. The fact that every home run he hits gets replayed on SportsCenter makes it seem like he has more than the 4 he does right now. Among 95 AL qualifiers, he is 48th in slugging, one point behind Alcides Escobar. I'm very skeptical at this point that he'll break Bonds' record of 762. Even if he stays healthy, a big if, I don't see him cracking 700 until mid 2014 at the earliest. Fortunately for the rest of baseball, he IS quite likely to get to 660, costing the Yankees a whole ton of money over the next six years.
Friday, March 23, 2012
A tribute to Chipper Jones, the greatest #1 draft pick of all time
As you've no doubt heard by now, Larry Wayne Jones announced that he is retiring at the end of the 2012 season. Unless the voters are stupid (sigh), he'll be a first-ballot Hall of Famer. A fair argument can be made that he's one of the 50 greatest players of all-time, but this space isn't going to be used today to evaluate him relative to, say, George Brett or Wade Boggs. Instead, we are going to consider Chipper in the context of June, 1990, when the Atlanta Braves made him the first overall pick in the draft. No team has ever done better with the pick.
For all of the hype that comes with being the first overall pick, it's a mixed bag. Somewhat tragically, the same month that Jones announces his retirement comes news that the two worst #1 picks of all time, Brien Taylor and Matt Bush, were arrested on charges of purchasing a large amount of cocaine and a DUI hit-and-run, respectively.
Whenever a player is taken #1 overall, it's a career filled with hope and expectations. Some, like Alex Rodriguez and Bryce Harper are considered can't-miss phenoms. Others, like Joe Mauer and Bryan Bullington are roundly criticized as "signability" picks. In every case, though, the drafting team makes their pick hoping for a future MVP who will lead his team to a World Series championship, multiple playoff appearances, and eventually retiring to a certain Hall of Fame plaque with that team's logo on his hat. The drafting team is hoping for Chipper Jones.
In terms of production for the drafting team, I wasn't totally surprised that Chipper Jones shows up as the best. I was slightly surprised, however, when I read ESPN's Dave Schoenfield's piece and realized how great the margin was. Here are the top #1 draft picks all time, in terms of WAR (per baseball-reference.com):
1. Chipper Jones, Braves, 1990: 82.7
2. Ken Griffey Jr, Mariners, 1987: 67.6
3. Joe Mauer, Twins. 2001: 40.3
4. Darryl Strawberry, Mets, 1980: 37.3
5. Alex Rodriguez, Mariners. 1993: 37.1
Only Ken Griffey, Jr. has been even HALF as valuable to his team as any other #1 draft pick as Jones was to the Braves. Additionally, of these five, only Jones amd Strawberry won World Series with their drafting teams. Jones, Mauer and Griffey all won MVP awards for their drafting team (and Rodriguez won three after leaving).
Of course, in terms of career value, Rodriguez is the greater player. Is that what a team is looking for in a #1 pick though? Let me ask that question a slightly different way, to elucidate my point. Did the Nationals draft Bryce Harper in hopes that he'll win the 2022 MVP with the Yankees? I'll wait patiently for your answer.
.
...
It's hard to answer that question without using a curse word, right? OF COURSE they don't just hope he's great, they hope he's great AND stays with the Nationals. There's not any way to argue that Rodriguez was as valuable to the Mariners as Jones has been to the Braves.
Aside: Griffey's worth to the Mariners does deserve a special mention. Not due to his production, which, while impressive, doesn't measure up to Jones'. Instead, Griffey really did save baseball in Seattle. If Griffey, who was tremendously popular and marketable, didn't break out in the early 1990's for the Mariners, it's quite likely they would have moved. Jones was a greater player who led his team to greater things on the field. Griffey kept his team in existence. Would the less charismatic Jones have had the same effect on the Mariners? Who knows? I'm not going to attempt to quantify the value in that, but it does need to be mentioned.
What's been remarkable about Jones is his consistency. While he's rarely been the very best player in his league (he DID lead in offensive WAR during his MVP season), he has NEVER had a Sub-2.0 WAR season. His worst OPS? .803, as a rookie in 1995. Even in his decline phase, his last three injury-plagued seasons, he's hit .268/.371/.444. That .371 OBP would've placed him 10th in the NL in 2011. So, while he's far from his thirteen-year (!) peak of .314/.411/.555, Jones' playing time recently has not been coming out of charity. The dude can still hit.
Another remarkable thing - Jones wasn't a pick of the can't miss variety, like Griffey, Strawberry and Rodriguez. In Baseball America's top 100 for the 1991 season, he was the #44 prospect. The consensus top prospect in the 1990 draft was a pitcher named Todd Van Poppel. However, Van Poppel was supposedly committed to going to the University of Texas. Was he serious, or bluffing for a big pay day? We found out the answer to that question when the A's took him with the #14 pick overall and gave him a then-record $1.55M signing bonus. The question we'll never know is this - would the Braves have taken Jones anyway? It's possible that the always-cagey Bobby Cox (who was GM at the time) was perfectly happy to let Van Poppel slip away and take the less heralded player he truly wanted.
So congratulations to Chipper Jones on a fantastic (and still unfinished!) career, and to the Atlanta Braves, for making the greatest draft pick of all time.
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