Johan Santana's no-hitter is a good reminder that he's awesome

As just about all of you already know, Johan Santana threw the first no-hitter in New York Mets history this past Friday. It was also the first no-hitter of Santana's excellent career. While no longer considered one of the ace pitchers in the game, Santana has been fantastic in his comeback this year. He only has three wins because of the sometimes-anemic Met offense, which had, until Friday's gem allowed Santana to fly somewhat under the radar, he now has a 2.38 ERA (6th in NL), 68 strikeouts (8th), a 1.029 WHIP (8th), and is the only pitcher in the majors with two complete games. He ranks tied for fifth (with fellow Met R.A. Dickey) in Baseball-Reference's WAR calculation.

Johan Santana (Credit: slgckgc)

Perhaps it's hard to imagine because of all the other stuff that went on around him during his time in Queens, but the trade for Santana may have been the best the Mets have ever made. Compare Santana, with a 2.80 ERA (144 ERA+) in 668 innings, giving him a 16.4 WAR, to David Cone, with his 3.13 ERA (113 ERA+) in 1209.1 innings, good for a 9.6 WAR. The theft of Cone from the Royals was cited by the MLB Network's Prime Nine program (not necessarily a bastion of objective analysis, but certainly an idea of the general consensus) as the 8th most lopsided trade in all of baseball history. Objectively, the Santana trade was better for the Mets.

Of course, we don't always consider these things objectively. The Mets were an elite team when Cone pitched for them, and Cone was a workhorse, pitching 200+ innings in each of the years he was in the rotation. Meanwhile, Santana got a huge contract and spent a bit of time on the disabled list, during a time when lots of Mets signed big contracts and spent time on the disabled list. It seemed like he was viewed as part of the problem more than part of the solution, which was unfair - it wasn't Santana's fault that Jason Bay broke down.

With a WAR over 50.0, two Cy Young Awards, and now a no-hitter, Santana may very well be the most difficult decision for the Hall of Fame of any active player. With only 136 wins and only two with more than 16, he doesn't have the traditional statistics voters tend to look for, so it's my guess that he won't get in. Still, no eligible player with two Cy Young awards has ever missed out on the Hall. It's hard to imagine Santana having enough left in the tank to get the 64 wins he'd need to reach 200, but it was also hard to imagine Santana carrying a 2.38 ERA through two months of the season. 

With that in mind, since he doesn't have the traditional stats, and HOF voters are far behind season-award voters when it comes to advanced stats, it's going to take a great narrative to get Santana into the Hall. With a no-hitter as part of a season that sees the Mets, improbably, in first place two months into the season, maybe he's getting that chance.

Photo Credit: By slgckgc on Flickr (Original version) UCinternational (Crop) [CC-BY-2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

Johan Santana gets first win since 2010

Johan Santana hasn't had very good luck the last few years.

First, he lost the 2005 Cy Young Award to Bartolo Colon in what was probably the last year that voters for that category cared about pitcher wins. With all the criticism of the BBWAA over the past several years for their award voting, they made Zack Greinke the Cy Young Award winner in 2009, Felix Hernandez in 2010. That shift has happened, and if the 2005 Awards were voted today, I have no doubt that Santana would win - possibly unanimously.

Second, he got traded to the Mets. Seriously, that's more bad luck than any individual deserves.What's worse, he seems to get a lot of the blame as the Mets have spent the past several seasons as a bit of an embarrassment. With that in mind, I'm going to make a semi-controversial statement:

Trading for Johan Santana was one of the best deals in Mets' franchise history.

Ok, that seems nuts. He's costing them a ton of money, and the Mets haven't done anything for years. So let me explain in a bit more depth.

First off, the Mets traded NOTHING of value to get Santana. As I've discussed in this space, Bill Smith got absolutely fleeced trading the best pitcher alive. Perhaps you would argue that the Mets don't deserve any credit for ripping off Bill Smith, since that seems to have been a general trend of the past several years, and I would grant you that point. Still, every other team out there had a chance to rip of Smith - the Mets stepped up and got it done. 

Second, Santana has been very good on the Mets. Not as good as he was from 2004 to 2007 with the Twins, but still, quite good. He's now appeared in 94 games with the Mets, In 631.0 innings, he has a 2.84 ERA, good for a 143 ERA+. For comparison, he had a 141 ERA+ with the Twins. That includes the 2000 and 2001 season where Santana worked as a reliever and wasn't good yet, but the idea that Santana has been a significantly worse pitcher with the Mets than they expected is just not correct. His peripherals have remained strong as well, with 530 strikeouts against 176 walks, putting him with a K/BB ratio just over 3.0. He's also given up slightly under a home run per 9 innings. 

After missing the entire 2011 season, Santana has pitched effectively in his first six starts of this season. He has allowed more than 1 run only twice, and now has three consecutive quality starts. He should have won his first game before Saturday, but don't forget, he pitches for the Mets. At a 9.87 K/9 rate and 2.61 ERA, and only 1 home run allowed, he is pitching like an ace. Of course,  he's pitched like an ace for a long time. Maybe he hasn't always been healthy, but he's pretty much always been very good.

The question now turns to what is next. Santana is owed roughly $46 million more over the next season and three-quarters. That's elite pitcher money, and while he looks like an elite pitcher so far this year, he still missed the entire 2011 season with a right shoulder injury. He's become the personification of high-risk/high-reward - he could be the best pitcher on a championship team, or he could break.

I do believe that Santana will be traded. The Mets are not going to compete this year, and probably will not next year. The Mets need to begin rebuilding their organization in earnest, and the Alderson/DePodesta team inspires much more confidence than previous regimes. As far as destination spots, the usual suspects are there. The Red Sox and Yankees both have miserable starting pitching, and may be willing to take on his contract. However, I'm going to suggest that Santana ends up with a less likely suitor in the same division: the Toronto Blue Jays. 

The Blue Jays, who lost out in their pursuit of Yu Darvish, have the money to spend, and the prospects to deal. They have a significant interest in making a deal as well - with a second wild card added, it's hard to picture the Jays being out of contention. Ricky Romero and Brandon Morrow have pitched well, but adding a top starter would really make them a serious contender. They play excellent defense and have significant power. Jose Bautista will NOT have a .177 BABIP this season (correcting his BABIP up to .304 would give him a season line of .279/.391/.452). Furthermore, unlike the Yankees and Red Sox, selling out the Skydome can be a goal for the Jays in this playoff-starved city. With the Raptors an afterthought, and a Maple Leafs team that locals would love an excuse to not think about for a summer, the Toronto sports scene is ripe for the plucking. Usually I'm against deals meant to "create excitement" but the advantage here is higher than usual. A move would send a clear sign that this Blue Jays team is not content to play for third place.

Alex Anthropoulos has gained a reputation as a shrewd GM, Mike Napoli for Frank Francisco aside. The Mets would not be able to rip him off. However, Anthropoulos also doesn't seem to be scared of taking a risk. Santana would seem like a sensible one. 

As far as the Mets are concerned, they may be able to get a better haul for Santana in 2012 than Omar Minaya gave up for him after the 2007. Read that last sentence again, and you'll probably understand why the Twins stink right now.

Brewers Acqure Francisco Rodriguez

Big night for the Brew Crew. Not long after 1B Prince Fielder was announced as World Series MVP, the team announced they had acquired reliever Francisco Rodriguez from the New York Mets. Rodriguez, in the final year of a three year, $39M contract, had been the object of rumors in recent weeks connected him with just about every contender. The move the Brewers comes as a bit of a surprise, though, as it was expected Milwaukee may look to upgrade the left side of their infield. Casey McGehee and Yuniesky Betancourt have combined for -2.0 WAR so far in 2011, and the Brewers already traded much of their minor league talent in their offseason deal for Zack Greinke.

The Brewers were actually able to acquire Rodriguez for only "players to be named later." I'm sure the Mets have their eyes on someone, but for now, the Brewers are free to continue their search with the same available talent - they've upgraded their team at little cost. No matter what one thinks of Rodriguez being overrated, and his off the field issues, he improves the Brewers on paper - his 3.16 ERA is the second worst of his career. In nine seasons, he has posted an ERA above 3.00 only three times. The always-maligned Brewers bullpen leads the NL with 20 bullpen losses. They rank 10th in bullpen ERA with a 3.92, and only two pitchers with an ERA under 4.00: closer John Axford (2.83) and ancient LaTroy Hawkins (1.08). Hawkins had an 8.31 ERA last year, and a 2.13 ERA in 2009, and I believe he was a teammate of Satchel Paige back in the '50's. So, needless to say, he might not be someone to depend on. Rodriguez is pitching for his next contract, so, even if used in a setup role, one has to believe the effort will be there. I would have already considered the Brewers the slight favorites in the NL Central, so this certainly doesn't hurt that.

The Brewers do need to get serious about better production from the left side of their infield. McGehee was a quality player in 2009 and 2010, so waiting for him to come around seems sensible. Betancourt, though? He's been one of the worst players in the league for years. In this space I asked six months ago whether he was the best the Brewers could do. (Through blogger, I'm able to see what posts get the most hits - that entry is the only one not posted in the past two months that is in my top 10 for the past 30 days). The question still stands, but only because he continues to get playing time - he is arguably having his worst season. While trying to work out a deal to upgrade, they might be better off going with minor league veteran Edwin Maysonet, currently .276/.325/.350 at AAA Nashville, with a nice looking 5.23 range factor. I don't even particularly care for range factor, but goodness - at least see if he can do something positive.

As far as the Mets' side of the move, I was a little surprised at first to see Rodriguez moved for so little (we think- maybe the PTBNL is better than the usual variety). The more I thought about it though, his standing as a Type A free agent is negated by the fact that there was zero chance New York offered him arbitration. Also, while the Mets are a game over .500, I doubt Sandy Alderson will be fooled into thinking they are legitimate contenders. If this was the best offer he could get, it was time to make the move.

For the rest of 2011, Bobby Parnell or Jason Isringhausen will likely be moved into the "closer" role - my guess is that it will be Isringhausen, since letting Parnell get saves will push the salary he can gain in arbitration skyward. Since he can do just as much to help them win games in the 7th and 8th innings, it makes sense to keep him in that role.

The Rise and Fall of Scott Kazmir

As you have probably heard, the Angels granted Scott Kazmir waivers today for the purpose of giving him his unconditional release. This cuts ties with a 27 year old who already has 66 career wins and 995 career strikeouts. After a dreadful first start of the season, the Angels had placed Kazmir on the DL with a severe case of "he's 27 and throws his fastball 7 mph less than he did when he was 23 and nobody can figure out why." After five "rehab" starts at AAA Salt Lake, GM Tony Reagins decided there was no place on the major league staff for Kazmir - an easy decision when you look at the fact that, in those five starts, Kazmir gave up 29 runs in 15.1 IP, walking 20 and striking out 14. He also had 5 WP and hit 6 batters. Never a control pitcher, Kazmir was all over the place, which was compounded by the fact his fastball, once one of the best in the league, is no longer even league average.

The story of Kazmir is a strange, often-repeated one. The Mets made him the #15 pick in the 2002 draft out of high school, and he signed quickly enough to make five excellent starts at Low-A Brooklyn, giving up only 1 ER in 18 innings while striking out 34. This debut performance was enough for Baseball America to make Kazmir the 11th best prospect in their 2003 pre-season rankings. In 2003, over two levels as a 19 year old, Kazmir continued to dominate, with a 2.65 ERA and 145 strikeouts in 109.1 innings. The 45 walks he had were enough to drop Kazmir to 12th in the Baseball America rankings. Still, being the #3 pitching prospect in baseball in nothing to sneeze at.

In 2004, Kazmir was excellent again. In 76 IP between high A and AA, he had a 2.84 ERA, 80 K, 31 BB and allowed only 3 HR. However, Mets' major league pitching coach Rick Peterson didn't like Kazmir's delivery - he thought it would be unsustainable over a long period of time, leading to injury and control trouble. A pitcher who Peterson DID like was Tampa Bay Ray starter Victor Zambrano. The 28 year old Zambrano had pitched for four years in Tampa, and was known mostly for his erratic (which might be too kind) control. In 481.2 IP with the Rays, he'd walked 288 batters. In 2003, he's led the AL with 106 walks (against only 132 strikeouts - this wasn't Nolan Ryan), and, at midseason 2004 already had 92 walks. Peterson liked Zambrano's stuff and general delivery and thought the control was the result of a correctable mechanical flaw.

So, what happened? The Mets traded the #12 prospect in baseball for the 28-year-old American League leader in walks at the trading deadline.

It seemed as dumb at the time as it does now. It would be like waking up tomorrow morning and finding out that the Braves had traded Julio Teheran to the Astros for JA Happ, and 28 other teams find out that not only was Teheran available, but all it would have taken to get him was a mediocre starter with serious control issues. This wasn't a contending team trading an unproven prospect for a proven veteran, like losing John Smoltz for Doyle Alexander. It was the Mets giving up on their top prospect because of one person's opinion, and getting nothing close to value in return. People jokingly asked whether Mets GM thought he was getting Cubs pitcher Carlos Zambrano and accidentally traded for the wrong Zambrano.

I should state that I've always thought Rick Peterson got too much of the blame for this turn of events. He's the pitching coach, not the general manager. The idea that Kazmir's delivery wasn't sustainable clearly has some merit in hindsight, and I'm going to bet that every pitching coach in the league has their eyes on a guy on another team who he things he can "fix." That's why it isn't the job of a pitching coach to make trades. The GM is in place to assess value, see what the best package he can get for a player, and Jim Duquette very obviously did not do that. That's why, personally, I view this as the worst trade in baseball history. If you analyze the long-term effect of a deal, clearly the Atlanta Braves getting John Smoltz or the Houston Astros getting Jeff Bagwell, or the Cardinals getting Lou Brock were enormous, but all of those were defensible. Trading your best prospect for one of the worst starters in the league?

Anyway, Victor Zambrano got hurt after three starts for the Mets. I suppose that Peterson was able to get him to lower his walk totals, as he walked 4.2 per 9 IP for the Mets, after walking 5.4 per 9 in his Rays career, but it had little benefit. Zambrano got hurt again in 2006, then bounced to the Blue Jays and Orioles in 2007 before falling out of the league.


Meanwhile, by 2007 Kazmir was turning into the best young pitchers in baseball. Called up only a month after the deal with the Mets, Kazmir, still only 20 struggled some at first. In 2005, he led the AL with 100 walks, but struck out significantly more batters than Zambrano, keeping his ERA down to 3.77, earning him 9th place in the AL Rookie of the Year voting. It was in 2006 and 2007 that Kazmir turned into the ace of the young (then Devil) Rays. In 351.1 innings pitched those two years, he struck out 402 and walked only 141. In 2007 as a 23 year old, he led the American League with 239 strikeouts. Kazmir for Zambrano was now a punchline.

In 2008, things started to go wrong for Kazmir. He strained his elbow in spring training, and while the issue was not reported to be serious, the Rays were still cautious, and Kazmir did not debut until May 4. Things went well enough from there, and Kazmir was named to his second straight all-star game, sporting a 3.05 ERA and a K/BB ratio of close to 3.0. In the second half, Kazmir appeared to be running out of gas - every indicator of effectiveness had dropped. He was striking out fewer batters, walking more, and giving up more home runs. His batting average against fell, a function of the Rays significantly improved defense behind him, but scouts were worried that his fastball was losing its bite.

In 2009, his velocity continued to drop, and Kazmir was now making serious money, having been signed before 2008 to a 4 year, $38.5M contract, was considered trade bait. Matt Garza, James Shields and David Price had already passed Kazmir, and the farm system was loaded with arms. At the trading deadline, Kazmir had a 5.92 ERA and was striking out barely 7 per 9 IP. Attributing the issues not to a termporary blip but to a loss in stuff, the Rays traded the 25-year-old Kazmir five years after acquiring him. He was sent to the Los Angeles Angels for utilityman Sean Rodriguez, minor league pitcher Alex Torres, and minor league first baseman Matthew Sweeney.

Kazmir improved upon being acquired by the Angels, but this was from a drop in his walk and home run rates rather than his stuff returning to its old level. In six starts, Kazmir had a 1.73 ERA in his first six starts, earning him a spot in their playoff rotation. This turned out to be a mistake, as in three playoff appearances he had a 7.93 ERA.

In 2010, Kazmir posted career worsts in nearly every category, and for the first time in his career, his fastball did not average 90 mph. By the end of the year, he had a 5.94 ERA, and in 150 innings pitched he struck out only 93, walked 79 and allowed 25 home runs - the highest walk and home run rates of any pitcher with 150 innings in the American League. Still hoping they could get something out Kazmir, and with him under contract for the season, the Angels broke camp in 2011 with him in the starting rotation. In his first start, he faced 14 batters - walking two, hitting two, giving up 5 hits including a home run, and allowing 5. He retired only 4 batters, none by strikeout. His fastball averaged 86 miles per hour.

It was at that point where the Angels decided to put Kazmir on the DL, because pitchers aren't supposed to throw 7mph slower at 27 than they did at 22 unless there is something physically wrong. Nothing specific was found, though, and with Kazmir getting lit up in 5 AAA starts, the Angels moved on.

At this point, I'm not sure where Kazmir can go. No team will put him in the majors. I almost think he'd be best off taking the rest of the year off, not pitching again until next spring, just throwing and playing long toss to build his arm strength back up. Still, we're not even sure that the issue is "arm strength." He may have just peaked athletically at a young age, and not have anything left in his 27 year old arm. If this is it though, Rays fans will always be able to remember him as one of the faces of the franchise in the mid-'00s when they actually began to improve.

Meanwhile, Rob Neyer recounts what Mets fans can remember (from his old ESPN blog):

In 2007 the Mets finished one game behind the first-place Phillies. In 2008 they finished three games behind the first-place Phillies. In 2006, their fourth starter in October was Steve Trachsel, who started twice and gave up seven runs in four-plus innings. It's not hard to imagine the Mets generating a great deal more income with Kazmir, because it's not hard to imagine them winning significantly more postseason games in those three years than they actually won.

And they didn't even get the right Zambrano.