A couple days ago, the Red Sox traded relief pitcher Dustin Richardson to the Marlins for one-time prospect Andrew Miller. Only three years ago, Miller was one of the key pieces that brought the Tigers Miguel Cabrera (and Dontrelle Willis). Now he is being dumped for a low-upside lefty reliever. The #6 pick in the 2006 draft, he may have gone first overall if the Royals weren't scared off by his bonus demands.
Miller had an excellent college career at the University of North Carolina. He left school as their all time strikeout leader, and formed the best one-two pitching combination in the country with a fellow flamethrower named Daniel Bard. After being drafted sixth overall, Miller has ranged from mediocre to downright bad in professional ball, bottoming out with a 8.54 ERA between the rotation and bullpen for the Marlins in 2010. So is Miller a guy with a chance to take advantage of his change of scenery? Or is destined to be remembered as one of the great busts of the last decade?
What has gone wrong with Miller? Maybe the best response to that is to ask what HASN'T gone wrong with him. Digging a little deeper though, we find an odd development path. After 3 games in the minors after singing in 2006, Miller was brought up to the Tigers and showed flashes of his brilliant stuff in the bullpen. Following that, there was some sentiment to put him in the rotation to start the 2007 season. The Tigers were wisely patient, making 13 starts at three levels before being called up to the Tigers.
After going to the Marlins in the Cabrera trade, things started to go horribly wrong. Fighting some injury problems, inconsistency, and being bounced around the system, Miller never seemed to develop on any level. His shaky control got worse and worse, his approach to pitching grew more timid, and in 2010 the bottom completely fell out. The approach to pitching is what stands out most to me, and I think it is fair to blame the Marlins. First of all, why has Miller only pitched 17.2 innings in his whole career in AAA? With his results poor and his confidence shot, shouldn't he have been sent to New Orleans and given a solid 100 to 125 innings to work out the kinks? If he failed as a starter, he could have been tried as a reliever. Instead, the Marlins tried to have him work out his problems at the major league level, and the results to that strategy were predictable. Now Miller finds himself out of options, so he cannot be sent to the minors, but with a new team that has had some success developing young pitchers with control issues.
With the Red Sox, the logical assumption is that he is going to be pitching out of the bullpen. With Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, John Lackey, Clay Buchholz and Daisuke Matsuzaka all under contract, the Red Sox are pretty well set there, but they had one of baseball's worst bullpens in 2010. Can Miller harness his stuff and be an effective reliever?
There is a theory, which I believe has merit, that starting pitchers who have control issues, but keep the ball in the park, will often be more effective in the bullpen. The thinking is that, with a little more juice on the fastball pitching in shorter stints, one is able to increase the strikeouts enough to balance out the walks. So suppose a player has 150 strikeouts and 90 walks in 150 innings. over 50 innings, he may be able to keep the walk rate the same, giving him 30 and increase the K's 15-20%, getting that strikeouts around 60. In close to 300 career innings, Miller has 238 strikeouts, 174 walks, and allowed 28 home runs. So I think that the skills are in place to translate into an effective reliever. However, that hasn't happened so far in the majors - he has a 6.83 ERA in the bullpen, compared with 5.74 as a starter. Another issue is that he has never been more effective against lefthanded hitters than righties, so Terry Francona will need to be cognizant that Miller would be miscast as a one-out situational guy.
So, while it is impossible to tell whether Miller can make the transition, all while moving to the more difficult league, it is a low-risk, high-reward move for the Red Sox, and a chance for Miller to work with Curt Young and Mike Cather, two of the best pitching coaches in the business.
Sunday, November 14, 2010
Sunday, October 10, 2010
10/10/10 Live Blog!!!!
1:00: Welcome to the Sunday LiveBlog! Rays vs. Rangers will be starting momentarily. If you have any questions, comments or insight, e-mail it my way at jamesdunne24@gmail.com. We'll see how long it takes for me to get tired of this.
1:08. I love that Maddon bats John Jaso leadoff. Get that high OBP at the top of the lineup, and he starts it off with a solid single to CF. Rickey Henderson (and Tim Raines to an extent) totally changed the complexion of what a leadoff hitter should be. For awhile you would get guys like Dwight Evans and Brian Downing who could put up a high OBP in front of the power hitters. Then in the late '80's, everyone thought that it was the speed of Henderson and Raines that was making the difference. It was important, but the bigger part was how hard they were to get out.
1:14: Buck Martinez propagating the "knows how to win" myth. Tommy Hunter doesn't win because he "knows how to win." He wins because he's a pretty good pitcher in front of a good defense on a team with a good offense. Is that a bad thing?
1:27: Vlad Guerrero just hit into a double play. Vlad cooled down significantly in the second half, but I'd have to say he's the one player who cemented his Hall of Fame case this year. With the election of Andre Dawson, the comparison between the two is obvious. Both were great athletes when they were young whose knees were shot playing on the bad turf in Montreal. Both had a reputation for swinging at bad pitches. However, Guerrero is the better player, because he actually hit more of those bad pitches.
1:56: Who would have a better chance of beating the Yankees? The conventional wisdom has been the Rays, but the Rangers have Cliff Lee, who the Yankees can't be quite as patient against, and Josh Hamilton, arguably the best left power hitter in baseball, going into the best park in baseball for a lefty power hitter. Thoughts?
2:06: The Rays are very reminiscent of the 2000-2005 A's in my mind. A team that walks a lot and hits a lot of home runs, but does not hit for a high average, is well built for the regular season. Over 162 games, a team sees a lot of mediocre to bad pitching, and the approach of waiting for a pitch you can drive instead of swinging at the first strike makes lesser pitchers pay. However, in the playoffs, you face the best pitchers on the best teams. Generally, those aren't the type who are prone to giving up walks and homers. That's why the Rays, despite being a good team, have been no-hitter prone, and it's something they need to make up for in the playoffs with good defense and pitching.
3:42: Calzones interrupted my posting. Anyway, another way in which the Rays remind me of those A's teams is all the talk about how much trouble they'll be in losing Crawford, Pena and Soriano. Crawford will be a big loss, no doubt. Wishy-washy "face of the franchise" discussion notwithstanding, Crawford had 62 extra base hits and 47 steals. He's a dynamic player still in his 20's who will get lots and lots of money. Pena, however, is replaceable. He has good power, and plays good defense, but 1B who can't put up a .330 OBP are a luxury that a poor team can't afford. As he moves into his mid-30's, his inability to make consistent enough contact could lead to his value diminishing in a hurry, a la Jason Giambi. Soriano had a great year as a closer and is a very good pitcher. But again, poor teams can't pay a premium for 50 innings a year. Like those A's teams, the Rays ability to continue developing their young pitching will keep them contenders despite the loss of significant talent.
4:41: And by "live" I mean "updated once or so an hour." Anyhow, after they Rays win today, the road team has won all four games of their series. The only time that I recall a team has lost the first two of a best of five at home, and then got back their for Game 5 was the 2001 Yankees. Those Yankees did not have to go home to meet Cliff Lee, who the Rays will see on Tuesday. David Price is very good, but Lee gets the slight edge, even on the road. The big winner here is the Yankees, who will face neither of those two in Game 1 of the ALCS.
5:00: Jason Heyward has impressed me this year. Ken Griffey didn't have a .390+ OBP until his 3rd year, Barry Bonds until his 5th. Heyward's power will continue to develop, and a batting eye that good is something you can't teach. He will have some adjustments to make on the hard stuff inside, but he is already a very, very good baseball player. If he'd had the numbers he had in Atlanta in Double A, he'd still be the #1 prospect in baseball. If he's not an MVP candidate from 2012-2022, something went terribly wrong.
5:12: Something like running too hard into a wall, for example.
5:13: Maybe if he's healthy, Heyward makes it to that ball, but Brooks Conrad is crushing the Braves. Chipper Jones' injury was tough, but it looks like the Prado injury is the one having the larger affect on the Braves.
5:42: Watching Mike Fontenot making a nice play on an Omar Infante grounder, it's crazy to think that the Giants were able to put a playoff team together with almost no contribution from Pablo Sandoval. Sandoval's extra base hits fell from 74 to 50, and since he doesn't walk or play great defense, that's basically where all of his value comes from. AT&T Park is a tough place to hit, but plenty of hitters have put up 20 HR seasons there.
6:26: Love the no-hitter being broken up by the opposing pitcher.
7:21: Eric Hinske! Following Hinske's 2002 Rookie of the Year campaign, settling in to a long career as a backup four corners guy may seem like a bit of a disappointment. Hinske really seems to have had more than his share of big moments on good teams since moving over to the Red Sox four years ago. Unlike his mammoth home run off of Joe Blanton in Game 4 of the '08 series this one was a line drive that barely cleared the wall. He's not quite baseball's Robert Horry, and Big Shot Eric just doesn't roll off the tongue the same way, but let's go with it.
7:29: When Brooks Conrad called off Derrek Lee for that pop-up, I'm pretty sure Turner Field made a sound sort of like "AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHNOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOWHEW"
7:40: While the idea of the "Proven Closer" may be severely overrated, what is NOT overrated is having good pitchers in your bullpen. Billy Wagner is not as good as he once was, but he was the best reliever the Braves had.
7:46: This Giants rally is the fire, and Kyle Farnsworth is the fuel that Bobby Cox has just decided to throw onto it. Peter Moylan gave up a ground ball to second base, it's not his fault that Brooks Conrad is having a meltdown on national television. Moylan should still be in this game.
8:16: For the 29 teams about to lose out to the Yankees for the right to pay Carl Crawford $150M over the next 8 years, Jayson Werth will be a nice consolation prize. Attitude problems notwithstanding, he had a great season. 75 extra base hits this year, and four straight years with an OPS above .850. Some of those homers and doubles may turn into outs elsewhere, but his road OPS over the last four years is only about 40 points lower than his home OPS, which isn't far off the normal home/road split. He won't cost nearly as much as Crawford, and won't end up with as many years either. Because of injuries it took him awhile to get good - he's 31, so he is not going to get better than that, but he is a well-rounded player who will be a solid investment over the next four years.
9:11: For all of the talk about the inconsistency of Raul Ibanez this year, he has been one of the most consistent players of the past decade. His OBP has been between .345 and .358 every year since 2001. Despite the huge drop in power numbers this year, his OBP actually went UP two points from '09. This speaks to the consistency of his plate approach. For the criticism his contact took, he has been worth at least the $23.5M he's gotten the past two years, and is a safe bet to be worth the $10M he'll get next year. It's not the late career improvement on the level of Dwight Evans, Chili Davis or Jim Edmonds, but Ibanez has had a nice career.
9:42: I don't think I agree with taking Johnny Cueto out right here. I'm all for the quick hook in the playoffs, especially when a team is in the Reds position. Ron Gardenhire left Brian Duensing in a bit too long yesterday when he clearly didn't have good stuff. Cueto though, has been pitching very well, only one earned run in five innings, and not a whole ton of hard hit balls. The bigger issue is that Miguel Cairo isn't such a good hitter that he's likely to tie this game, and there is nobody on base, so they need two runs back. Cueto seems to me to be as good a bet as anyone in the Cincinnati bullpen to keep this a two run game.
10:42: You have to feel a little bit of sympathy for Cincinnati. After a very good season where they really didn't get as much attention as they deserved, they're running into a Philadelphia team whose pitching staff is as dominant as any and seems to be catching every break. Plus their football team is atrocious. If their season does end tonight though, they should take heart - they made a huge step forward this year. Joey Votto will likely win the NL MVP (and deserve it), Jay Bruce was one of the best players in the league in the last two months, and I'll take a Volquez/Cueto/Arroyo/Bailey/Harang rotation over any in the NL outside of Philly in 2011. They, along with San Francisco and Texas, are one of the few teams that can consider their season a success no matter what happens the rest of the way.
1:08. I love that Maddon bats John Jaso leadoff. Get that high OBP at the top of the lineup, and he starts it off with a solid single to CF. Rickey Henderson (and Tim Raines to an extent) totally changed the complexion of what a leadoff hitter should be. For awhile you would get guys like Dwight Evans and Brian Downing who could put up a high OBP in front of the power hitters. Then in the late '80's, everyone thought that it was the speed of Henderson and Raines that was making the difference. It was important, but the bigger part was how hard they were to get out.
1:14: Buck Martinez propagating the "knows how to win" myth. Tommy Hunter doesn't win because he "knows how to win." He wins because he's a pretty good pitcher in front of a good defense on a team with a good offense. Is that a bad thing?
1:27: Vlad Guerrero just hit into a double play. Vlad cooled down significantly in the second half, but I'd have to say he's the one player who cemented his Hall of Fame case this year. With the election of Andre Dawson, the comparison between the two is obvious. Both were great athletes when they were young whose knees were shot playing on the bad turf in Montreal. Both had a reputation for swinging at bad pitches. However, Guerrero is the better player, because he actually hit more of those bad pitches.
1:56: Who would have a better chance of beating the Yankees? The conventional wisdom has been the Rays, but the Rangers have Cliff Lee, who the Yankees can't be quite as patient against, and Josh Hamilton, arguably the best left power hitter in baseball, going into the best park in baseball for a lefty power hitter. Thoughts?
2:06: The Rays are very reminiscent of the 2000-2005 A's in my mind. A team that walks a lot and hits a lot of home runs, but does not hit for a high average, is well built for the regular season. Over 162 games, a team sees a lot of mediocre to bad pitching, and the approach of waiting for a pitch you can drive instead of swinging at the first strike makes lesser pitchers pay. However, in the playoffs, you face the best pitchers on the best teams. Generally, those aren't the type who are prone to giving up walks and homers. That's why the Rays, despite being a good team, have been no-hitter prone, and it's something they need to make up for in the playoffs with good defense and pitching.
3:42: Calzones interrupted my posting. Anyway, another way in which the Rays remind me of those A's teams is all the talk about how much trouble they'll be in losing Crawford, Pena and Soriano. Crawford will be a big loss, no doubt. Wishy-washy "face of the franchise" discussion notwithstanding, Crawford had 62 extra base hits and 47 steals. He's a dynamic player still in his 20's who will get lots and lots of money. Pena, however, is replaceable. He has good power, and plays good defense, but 1B who can't put up a .330 OBP are a luxury that a poor team can't afford. As he moves into his mid-30's, his inability to make consistent enough contact could lead to his value diminishing in a hurry, a la Jason Giambi. Soriano had a great year as a closer and is a very good pitcher. But again, poor teams can't pay a premium for 50 innings a year. Like those A's teams, the Rays ability to continue developing their young pitching will keep them contenders despite the loss of significant talent.
4:41: And by "live" I mean "updated once or so an hour." Anyhow, after they Rays win today, the road team has won all four games of their series. The only time that I recall a team has lost the first two of a best of five at home, and then got back their for Game 5 was the 2001 Yankees. Those Yankees did not have to go home to meet Cliff Lee, who the Rays will see on Tuesday. David Price is very good, but Lee gets the slight edge, even on the road. The big winner here is the Yankees, who will face neither of those two in Game 1 of the ALCS.
5:00: Jason Heyward has impressed me this year. Ken Griffey didn't have a .390+ OBP until his 3rd year, Barry Bonds until his 5th. Heyward's power will continue to develop, and a batting eye that good is something you can't teach. He will have some adjustments to make on the hard stuff inside, but he is already a very, very good baseball player. If he'd had the numbers he had in Atlanta in Double A, he'd still be the #1 prospect in baseball. If he's not an MVP candidate from 2012-2022, something went terribly wrong.
5:12: Something like running too hard into a wall, for example.
5:13: Maybe if he's healthy, Heyward makes it to that ball, but Brooks Conrad is crushing the Braves. Chipper Jones' injury was tough, but it looks like the Prado injury is the one having the larger affect on the Braves.
5:42: Watching Mike Fontenot making a nice play on an Omar Infante grounder, it's crazy to think that the Giants were able to put a playoff team together with almost no contribution from Pablo Sandoval. Sandoval's extra base hits fell from 74 to 50, and since he doesn't walk or play great defense, that's basically where all of his value comes from. AT&T Park is a tough place to hit, but plenty of hitters have put up 20 HR seasons there.
6:26: Love the no-hitter being broken up by the opposing pitcher.
7:21: Eric Hinske! Following Hinske's 2002 Rookie of the Year campaign, settling in to a long career as a backup four corners guy may seem like a bit of a disappointment. Hinske really seems to have had more than his share of big moments on good teams since moving over to the Red Sox four years ago. Unlike his mammoth home run off of Joe Blanton in Game 4 of the '08 series this one was a line drive that barely cleared the wall. He's not quite baseball's Robert Horry, and Big Shot Eric just doesn't roll off the tongue the same way, but let's go with it.
7:29: When Brooks Conrad called off Derrek Lee for that pop-up, I'm pretty sure Turner Field made a sound sort of like "AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHNOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOWHEW"
7:40: While the idea of the "Proven Closer" may be severely overrated, what is NOT overrated is having good pitchers in your bullpen. Billy Wagner is not as good as he once was, but he was the best reliever the Braves had.
7:46: This Giants rally is the fire, and Kyle Farnsworth is the fuel that Bobby Cox has just decided to throw onto it. Peter Moylan gave up a ground ball to second base, it's not his fault that Brooks Conrad is having a meltdown on national television. Moylan should still be in this game.
8:16: For the 29 teams about to lose out to the Yankees for the right to pay Carl Crawford $150M over the next 8 years, Jayson Werth will be a nice consolation prize. Attitude problems notwithstanding, he had a great season. 75 extra base hits this year, and four straight years with an OPS above .850. Some of those homers and doubles may turn into outs elsewhere, but his road OPS over the last four years is only about 40 points lower than his home OPS, which isn't far off the normal home/road split. He won't cost nearly as much as Crawford, and won't end up with as many years either. Because of injuries it took him awhile to get good - he's 31, so he is not going to get better than that, but he is a well-rounded player who will be a solid investment over the next four years.
9:11: For all of the talk about the inconsistency of Raul Ibanez this year, he has been one of the most consistent players of the past decade. His OBP has been between .345 and .358 every year since 2001. Despite the huge drop in power numbers this year, his OBP actually went UP two points from '09. This speaks to the consistency of his plate approach. For the criticism his contact took, he has been worth at least the $23.5M he's gotten the past two years, and is a safe bet to be worth the $10M he'll get next year. It's not the late career improvement on the level of Dwight Evans, Chili Davis or Jim Edmonds, but Ibanez has had a nice career.
9:42: I don't think I agree with taking Johnny Cueto out right here. I'm all for the quick hook in the playoffs, especially when a team is in the Reds position. Ron Gardenhire left Brian Duensing in a bit too long yesterday when he clearly didn't have good stuff. Cueto though, has been pitching very well, only one earned run in five innings, and not a whole ton of hard hit balls. The bigger issue is that Miguel Cairo isn't such a good hitter that he's likely to tie this game, and there is nobody on base, so they need two runs back. Cueto seems to me to be as good a bet as anyone in the Cincinnati bullpen to keep this a two run game.
10:42: You have to feel a little bit of sympathy for Cincinnati. After a very good season where they really didn't get as much attention as they deserved, they're running into a Philadelphia team whose pitching staff is as dominant as any and seems to be catching every break. Plus their football team is atrocious. If their season does end tonight though, they should take heart - they made a huge step forward this year. Joey Votto will likely win the NL MVP (and deserve it), Jay Bruce was one of the best players in the league in the last two months, and I'll take a Volquez/Cueto/Arroyo/Bailey/Harang rotation over any in the NL outside of Philly in 2011. They, along with San Francisco and Texas, are one of the few teams that can consider their season a success no matter what happens the rest of the way.
Sunday, July 25, 2010
Angels get Haren
My first impression was that it is a bad move for Arizona. Upon further review, it just looks worse.
The Angels today received starting pitcher Dan Haren for Joe Saunders, Rafael Rodriguez and Patrick Corbin. In doing so, the Diamondbacks traded an excellent player who is under contract for two more years, at reasonable money, and did it at the lowest point in his value, getting minimal value in return.
First, Haren is not perfect, and is not a “counter” to the Rangers deal earlier in the month for Cliff Lee. Lee is the best pitcher in the American League right now, and no single player can counter the value Lee provides a playoff contender. He nearly single-handedly won a World Series for the Phillies last year. On the other hand, this isn’t meant to be a counter. Unlike Lee, Haren is signed through 2012. If the Angels can get back in the race this year, that’s great. Haren is immediately the ace of the 2011 and 2012 teams.
Haren’s drawback, and the one thing that keeps him from being elite, is the fact that he just gives up too many home runs. Last year, having a very good year, he was giving up a homer once every 33.7 batters. This year, it is up to 26.3 batters. Arizona is a tough place to pitch, but that’s simply too many. However, Haren’s 4.60 ERA this year is also a function of bad luck and bad defense. Arizona is the third worst team in baseball in defensive efficiency. Accordingly Haren has the 5th worst batting average on batting average on balls in play, at .344. The median qualified pitcher this year has a .288 BABIP, so if Haren was getting average luck and defensive support, he would have 22 fewer hits allowed this year, lowering his overall batting average against from .286 to .246, and his ERA about half a run. Moving to a more pitcher friendly park, in front of a better defense should on its own lower his ERA a good amount.
Meanwhile, Haren’s strikeout to walk ratio, the best indicator of future success, has stayed consistently near 5 for three years now – his 2010 stat of 4.86 puts him at 4th in the majors, just behind new teammate Jered Weaver.
Trading a very good but perhaps not elite pitcher like Haren isn’t necessarily a terrible move, but the Diamondbacks have done it in just about the worst way possible. Haren does not have free agency pending, so he did not NEED to be traded. So the Diamondbacks inability to get something to help them in the future in return is really a disaster for them.
Joe Saunders is the known piece here, and he did win 33 games the previous two seasons. However, he is not a building block for the future. First of all, he is only 10 months younger than Haren. Secondly, while his win-loss record is an unimpressive 6-10, his 4.62 ERA is right in line with his 4.60 of a year ago, and not significantly higher than his 4.29 career number. He strikes out less than five per nine innings, and his walk rate has climbed to 3.4 per nine. On pace to surpass 180 innings for the third straight season, Saunders is a solid back and of the rotation guy. The cost-savings for Arizona aren’t even going to be that great here. Haren is due $12.5M next year, while Saunders will likely early between $6M and $7M. So unless they plan to turn around and either trade Saunders or non-tender him, then Arizona is not going to save a ton of cash.
As far as the two prospects, neither are considered impact talents. Rafael Rodriguez is a 25 year old reliever, who has some good minor league ERAs, but his stuff is considered average and his peripheral numbers are not indicative of someone who is dominant. In 50 innings at Salt Lake, he has 30 strikeouts and 15 walks. At AAA since 2008, Rodriguez may be able to help some in the Diamondbacks struggling bullpen, but he does not profile as someone who will be a high-leverage guy.
Patrick Corbin is younger, and his numbers do show some flashes of potential. Only 20, he has moved up from Single A Cedar Rapids to High A Rancho Cucamonga, and shown good consistency, overall striking out 106 and walking only 28 over 118.2 innings, posting a 3.87 ERA. He was not on any prospect lists coming into the season, but he was considered an excellent athlete coming out of college, so the performance may be starting to catch up with the potential Still, his fastball peaks at only around 93, and sits at 89-91. His slider is considered his one “plus” pitch. He is a solid organizational piece to follow and develop, but not the prime prospect in a trade for an all-star.
Two years ago, Brandon Webb and Dan Haren looked like they would be the two aces at the front of a contending Diamondbacks team for many years. It did not work out that way, and Arizona fans cannot be blamed for being disappointed in their organization for failing to get more in return. Meanwhile, after an offseason that saw their team lose a lot of talent, and in the midst of a regular season that has them losing more games than usual, Angel fans have a right to be hopeful again about 2010 and the future.
The Angels today received starting pitcher Dan Haren for Joe Saunders, Rafael Rodriguez and Patrick Corbin. In doing so, the Diamondbacks traded an excellent player who is under contract for two more years, at reasonable money, and did it at the lowest point in his value, getting minimal value in return.
First, Haren is not perfect, and is not a “counter” to the Rangers deal earlier in the month for Cliff Lee. Lee is the best pitcher in the American League right now, and no single player can counter the value Lee provides a playoff contender. He nearly single-handedly won a World Series for the Phillies last year. On the other hand, this isn’t meant to be a counter. Unlike Lee, Haren is signed through 2012. If the Angels can get back in the race this year, that’s great. Haren is immediately the ace of the 2011 and 2012 teams.
Haren’s drawback, and the one thing that keeps him from being elite, is the fact that he just gives up too many home runs. Last year, having a very good year, he was giving up a homer once every 33.7 batters. This year, it is up to 26.3 batters. Arizona is a tough place to pitch, but that’s simply too many. However, Haren’s 4.60 ERA this year is also a function of bad luck and bad defense. Arizona is the third worst team in baseball in defensive efficiency. Accordingly Haren has the 5th worst batting average on batting average on balls in play, at .344. The median qualified pitcher this year has a .288 BABIP, so if Haren was getting average luck and defensive support, he would have 22 fewer hits allowed this year, lowering his overall batting average against from .286 to .246, and his ERA about half a run. Moving to a more pitcher friendly park, in front of a better defense should on its own lower his ERA a good amount.
Meanwhile, Haren’s strikeout to walk ratio, the best indicator of future success, has stayed consistently near 5 for three years now – his 2010 stat of 4.86 puts him at 4th in the majors, just behind new teammate Jered Weaver.
Trading a very good but perhaps not elite pitcher like Haren isn’t necessarily a terrible move, but the Diamondbacks have done it in just about the worst way possible. Haren does not have free agency pending, so he did not NEED to be traded. So the Diamondbacks inability to get something to help them in the future in return is really a disaster for them.
Joe Saunders is the known piece here, and he did win 33 games the previous two seasons. However, he is not a building block for the future. First of all, he is only 10 months younger than Haren. Secondly, while his win-loss record is an unimpressive 6-10, his 4.62 ERA is right in line with his 4.60 of a year ago, and not significantly higher than his 4.29 career number. He strikes out less than five per nine innings, and his walk rate has climbed to 3.4 per nine. On pace to surpass 180 innings for the third straight season, Saunders is a solid back and of the rotation guy. The cost-savings for Arizona aren’t even going to be that great here. Haren is due $12.5M next year, while Saunders will likely early between $6M and $7M. So unless they plan to turn around and either trade Saunders or non-tender him, then Arizona is not going to save a ton of cash.
As far as the two prospects, neither are considered impact talents. Rafael Rodriguez is a 25 year old reliever, who has some good minor league ERAs, but his stuff is considered average and his peripheral numbers are not indicative of someone who is dominant. In 50 innings at Salt Lake, he has 30 strikeouts and 15 walks. At AAA since 2008, Rodriguez may be able to help some in the Diamondbacks struggling bullpen, but he does not profile as someone who will be a high-leverage guy.
Patrick Corbin is younger, and his numbers do show some flashes of potential. Only 20, he has moved up from Single A Cedar Rapids to High A Rancho Cucamonga, and shown good consistency, overall striking out 106 and walking only 28 over 118.2 innings, posting a 3.87 ERA. He was not on any prospect lists coming into the season, but he was considered an excellent athlete coming out of college, so the performance may be starting to catch up with the potential Still, his fastball peaks at only around 93, and sits at 89-91. His slider is considered his one “plus” pitch. He is a solid organizational piece to follow and develop, but not the prime prospect in a trade for an all-star.
Two years ago, Brandon Webb and Dan Haren looked like they would be the two aces at the front of a contending Diamondbacks team for many years. It did not work out that way, and Arizona fans cannot be blamed for being disappointed in their organization for failing to get more in return. Meanwhile, after an offseason that saw their team lose a lot of talent, and in the midst of a regular season that has them losing more games than usual, Angel fans have a right to be hopeful again about 2010 and the future.
Saturday, December 13, 2008
Brilliant!
Wait for it... wait for it... within the next couple of days, in the aftermath of the CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett signings, we should be getting the first few articles saying "The Yankees aren't only rich... they're smart too!!" Bob Klapisch, I'm looking in your direction. Every time the Yankees have made any big signing in the past 8-12 years, we're always guaranteed at least one article of that ilk, even though the Yankees stopped being smart and frittering their huge money advantage by signing a bunch of mid-level free agents to huge contracts sometime around 2002ish.
Still, signing Jaret Wright and Carl Pavano to hilarious contracts and making Jason Giambi baseball's second highest paid player for the better part of a decade don't mean that every move they make is inherently stupid. After all, they finally sent Melky Cabrera to Scranton
after he spent 18 months not hitting. See, they can do smart things.
So, are the Sabathia and Burnett signings "smart?" The 10th edition Webster's Dictionary describes "smart" when used as an adjective, as follows:
1 : making one smart : causing a sharp stinging Hmmm. I don't know that Sabathia and Burnett were signed to sting people, but maybe?
2 : marked by often sharp forceful activity or vigorous strength Again, while their two pitchers do display what may be called "vigorous strength," I don't think this is what Klapisch has in mind.
3 : BRISK, Spirited Sabathia is certainly spirited, but I don't know that brisk is especiallyapt.
4
5 : a: WITTY, CLEVER b : PERT, SAUCY [don't get ~ with me ] This doesn't really apply either, though I'm pretty excited that I got to type the word "saucy." So that made my day.
6 : a: NEAT, TRIM b : stylish or elegant in dress or appearance c(1): SOPHISTICATED (2) : characteristic of or patronized by fashinable society I like this one, because we're talking about a 311 pound man who just got signed to pitch in the Bronx.
7 : a : being a guided missile [ a laser-guided ~ bomb] b: operating by automation [ a ~ machine tool ] c: INTELLIGENT If Sabathia and Burnett do have laser guided bombs operated by automation, then yes, this is definitely a smart deal.
All joking aside, whenever I read columns describing the Yankees as "smart" when signing people, the thesis seems to be working to prove that they're not stupid. There is a gap between smart and not stupid. Having the most money, and using that money to bid higher on a scarce good that everyone else wants is not inherently "smart." C.C. Sabathia is a fantastic pitcher, and was made the highest paid player of all time. For $161 million dollars, he'll be a Yankee for eight years. I think too many people are worried about how Sabathia will perform in year eight. Yes, his body will probably break down by then. But is paying for, say, eight years of elite performance sensible when you're only likely to get five or six? In this case, yes, because paying for eight and getting six is better than only offering to pay six and getting zero.
Long story short, the Yankees best pitcher from 2008 was retiring, and they needed to fill that void. They have more money to spend than any other team, so they paid the most for the best. Was that necessary? Probably. Was it sensible? All things considered, I'd say so. But was is "smart?" Did Brian Cashman and Co. show any special shrewdness or intelligence in their plan to replace their ace starter? Nah.
In baseball terms though, Sabathia and New York are a good fit. If the new stadium plays like The Stadium, then a big lefty who happens to be tough on lefties is perfect. He won't get much help from the Yankee "defense," but he has a huge left field to turn a few homers into doubles, and maybe a couple into outs, and strikes out enough people that a few singles skipping through that gaping hole up the middle won't matter much.
AJ Burnett though? Nah. A top prospect years ago, his performance has rarely matched his hype. A 32 year old on opening day, Burnett has made 30 or more starts in exactly two seasons. The glass half full guy would point out that one of those seasons was last year, and argue that his injury history is behind him. Others would point to the fact that the Yankees are paying $83 million to sign a non elite pitcher with an injury history, who has never made an all-star team or even gotten a single vote for the Cy Young Award, coming off the most innings he's ever logged, through his age 36 season. Smart?
Baseball-reference.com lists "similarity scores," taking stats of players and comparing them to every player in history. Of the 10 most comparable players, only one is active, and as luck would have it, is the same age AND is also a free agent. He's Randy Wolf. Strike One.
Let's look at the nine others, shall we?
#1 is actually a pretty strong comparison. Pete Harnisch was the 27th pick in the 1987 draft by the Baltimore Orioles. A top prospect, he middled with the Orioled for a couple years before the Astros completely fleeced Baltimore in what was probably the most one-sided trade of the 1990's, getting Harnisch, Steve Finley and Curt Schilling for Glenn Davis. Harnisch pitched well for Houston, making the 1991 All-Star team. Later, he was traded to the Mets, and pitched fairly effectively in front of an abysmal team before getting hurt and also fighting a fairly public battle with tobacco withdrawal. Before the 1998 season, he signed with the Reds, and experienced a bit of a "late" career revival, late being in quotation marks because he was only 31 in 1998.
In 1999, at age 32 (the same age Burnett will be on opening day), Harnish had one of the finest seasons of his career, going 16-10 with a 3.68 ERA. So far so good, right Yankee fans? Oh yeah, those other four years. After logging 407 innings in 1998-99, Harnisch made only 22 starts in 2000, going 8-6, with a 4.74 ERA, which equated to an ERA+ of a completed average 100. In 2001, at age 34, Harnisch finished his career by making seven starts, going 1-3 with a 6.37 ERA. He never pitched in the Major Leagues again.
The next comp is Stan Williams, who pitched from the late '50's to the early '70's with the Dodgers, Yankees, Indians and Twins. Yankee fans may remember him best as the guy they traded Moose Skowron to the Dodgers for. Like Harnisch, after a couple middling years, Williams broke through and made the All-Star team as a 23 year old in 1960. Also like Harnisch, Williams pitched well, got hurt, and had a comeback at age 31. At that point though, Williams was a "swingman" starting perhaps three to four games a month when needed (often during a doubleheader, for example) and pitching in relief in between - not a role the Yankees have any interest in using Williams in.
When he reached 32, Williams was no longer effective as a starter, and began to pitch exclusively out of the bullpen. At 33, on the 1970 Twins, Williams, pitched 113 innings in 68 relief outings, going 10-1 with a 1.99 ERA. That would be his last effective season though. He pitched poorly in 1971, and was traded to the Cardinals. After 12 innings with St. Louis, he was released. In 1972, he was signed by the Angels, where he didn't pitch in the majors, was released and picked up by the Red Sox, where he had a 6.23 ERA in three relief outings. After Boston released him, Williams did not pitch in the majors again.
Blue Jay postseason hero Juan Guzman is the next most similar. Like Harnisch and Williams, Guzman pitched in one all-star game, as a 25 year old in 1992. Guzman was similar to Burnett in that he threw quite hard, struck out a lot of people, and had bouts with wildness. After battling injuries and some ineffectiveness in the mid 1990's, Guzman was having a bit of a comeback at age 31, pitching effectively for the Blue Jays, when he was traded to the Orioles in a midseason deal. Guzman continued to be fairly effective that year, finishing 10-16, but with a 4.35 ERA, and perhaps most importantly, he made 33 starts, the first time he made over 30 since 1993.
In 1999, Guzman joined Harnisch on the Reds in a midseason trade that brought the Orioles future closer BJ Ryan. Guzman had been pitching fairly well for the Orioles, with a 4.18 ERA in the tough AL East. Upon the trade to the Reds though, the 32 year old Guzman started pitching his best baseball since his glory days with Toronto. In 77 innings over 12 starts, Guzman went 6-3 with a 3.03 ERA, along with 60 strikeouts and 21 walks, helping the Reds tie the Mets for the National League wild card. Based on that performance, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays signed Guzman to a two year, $12M contract. One and two thirds innings and eight earned runs into that contract, Guzman, at 33, blew out his arm and never pitched in the major leagues again.
Erik Hanson had pitched from 1988-1993 the Mariners, and often quite effectively, but the Mariners poor offense never gave Hanson the win-loss record he deserved. After one year with the Reds, Hanson joined the Red Sox in 1995, as general manager Dan Duquette was not worried about Hanson's win-loss record, and instead focused on his good strikeout and walk rates. His lone year with the Sox turned out to be one of his best. He went 15-5 on that division winning Sox team and, as a 30 year old, made his only all-star team. A couple bad starts down the stretch raised his ERA to a still-acceptable 4.24, especially when accounting for Fenway and AL East inflation. Hanson turned this success into a three year contact from the Blue Jays. In year one of the contract, Hanson was durable but only occasionally effective, going 13-17, with a 5.41 ERA. More troublingly, his walk rate nearly doubled - after a career of consistently walking fewer than 2.5 men per nine innings, his walk rate ballooned to nearly 4.5 in 1996.
Hanson then lost that durability in 1997, at age 32. In his final two seasons, he pitched only 64 innings, giving up 47 earned runs, a 6.61 ERA.
Need I go on? The rest of the similar players are Kirk McCaskill, Wilson Alvarez, Mike Boddicker, Jose Guzman, and Hideo Nomo. Now, recall that Burnett is signed through his age 36 season, Of the nine retired players on Burnett's top 10 list, only one, Nomo, even HAD an age 36 season. The nine combined to go to zero all-star teams in their age 32-36 seasons. The best of the group was Nomo, who won 16 games both as a 32 and 33 year old, before posting a 7.60 ERA the next two years over 184 innings.
--
Now certainly, we can't guarentee Burnett will be out of baseball in 2013, the last year of his contract. Sports medicine is always improving, and players are staying healthy longer than ever. And, of course, similarity scores are only numbers. While some of this group, like Harnisch and Nomo, bear strong similarities to Burnett, others, like Randy Wolf, certainly do not. But given the risk against the relative reward - Burnett, again, is a zero time all-star, has once won more than 12 games, and has twice made 30 starts - it seems like an $82 million question mark.
Even beyond that risk, did the Yankees "need" Burnett? Despite all of the talk about their tremendous offense, they had as much trouble scoring runs in 2008 as they did preventing them. In the 14 team American League, the Yankees were 7th in runs allowed, and 7th in runs scored. Replacing Jason Giambi with Nick Swisher isn't going to solve any of the issue with scoring runs, but it should help prevent a few more. After signing Sabathia to replace the retired Mussina, the "smart" move would've been to use all of that extra money to make a run at Mark Teixeira, an elite player who is likely to be a Hall of Famer. Instead, they signed a second-tier starting pitcher who, despite the hype, has never been all that close to elite. Sabathia brings the Yankees closer to the Rays and Red Sox in the AL East. Burnett will help them continue to be baseball's most overhyped (and overpaid) underachievers.
Still, signing Jaret Wright and Carl Pavano to hilarious contracts and making Jason Giambi baseball's second highest paid player for the better part of a decade don't mean that every move they make is inherently stupid. After all, they finally sent Melky Cabrera to Scranton
after he spent 18 months not hitting. See, they can do smart things.
So, are the Sabathia and Burnett signings "smart?" The 10th edition Webster's Dictionary describes "smart" when used as an adjective, as follows:
1 : making one smart : causing a sharp stinging Hmmm. I don't know that Sabathia and Burnett were signed to sting people, but maybe?
2 : marked by often sharp forceful activity or vigorous strength Again, while their two pitchers do display what may be called "vigorous strength," I don't think this is what Klapisch has in mind.
3 : BRISK, Spirited Sabathia is certainly spirited, but I don't know that brisk is especially
4
5 : a: WITTY, CLEVER b : PERT, SAUCY [don't get ~ with me ] This doesn't really apply either, though I'm pretty excited that I got to type the word "saucy." So that made my day.
6 : a: NEAT, TRIM b : stylish or elegant in dress or appearance c(1): SOPHISTICATED (2) : characteristic of or patronized by fashinable society I like this one, because we're talking about a 311 pound man who just got signed to pitch in the Bronx.
7 : a : being a guided missile [ a laser-guided ~ bomb] b: operating by automation [ a ~ machine tool ] c: INTELLIGENT If Sabathia and Burnett do have laser guided bombs operated by automation, then yes, this is definitely a smart deal.
All joking aside, whenever I read columns describing the Yankees as "smart" when signing people, the thesis seems to be working to prove that they're not stupid. There is a gap between smart and not stupid. Having the most money, and using that money to bid higher on a scarce good that everyone else wants is not inherently "smart." C.C. Sabathia is a fantastic pitcher, and was made the highest paid player of all time. For $161 million dollars, he'll be a Yankee for eight years. I think too many people are worried about how Sabathia will perform in year eight. Yes, his body will probably break down by then. But is paying for, say, eight years of elite performance sensible when you're only likely to get five or six? In this case, yes, because paying for eight and getting six is better than only offering to pay six and getting zero.
Long story short, the Yankees best pitcher from 2008 was retiring, and they needed to fill that void. They have more money to spend than any other team, so they paid the most for the best. Was that necessary? Probably. Was it sensible? All things considered, I'd say so. But was is "smart?" Did Brian Cashman and Co. show any special shrewdness or intelligence in their plan to replace their ace starter? Nah.
In baseball terms though, Sabathia and New York are a good fit. If the new stadium plays like The Stadium, then a big lefty who happens to be tough on lefties is perfect. He won't get much help from the Yankee "defense," but he has a huge left field to turn a few homers into doubles, and maybe a couple into outs, and strikes out enough people that a few singles skipping through that gaping hole up the middle won't matter much.
AJ Burnett though? Nah. A top prospect years ago, his performance has rarely matched his hype. A 32 year old on opening day, Burnett has made 30 or more starts in exactly two seasons. The glass half full guy would point out that one of those seasons was last year, and argue that his injury history is behind him. Others would point to the fact that the Yankees are paying $83 million to sign a non elite pitcher with an injury history, who has never made an all-star team or even gotten a single vote for the Cy Young Award, coming off the most innings he's ever logged, through his age 36 season. Smart?
Baseball-reference.com lists "similarity scores," taking stats of players and comparing them to every player in history. Of the 10 most comparable players, only one is active, and as luck would have it, is the same age AND is also a free agent. He's Randy Wolf. Strike One.
Let's look at the nine others, shall we?
#1 is actually a pretty strong comparison. Pete Harnisch was the 27th pick in the 1987 draft by the Baltimore Orioles. A top prospect, he middled with the Orioled for a couple years before the Astros completely fleeced Baltimore in what was probably the most one-sided trade of the 1990's, getting Harnisch, Steve Finley and Curt Schilling for Glenn Davis. Harnisch pitched well for Houston, making the 1991 All-Star team. Later, he was traded to the Mets, and pitched fairly effectively in front of an abysmal team before getting hurt and also fighting a fairly public battle with tobacco withdrawal. Before the 1998 season, he signed with the Reds, and experienced a bit of a "late" career revival, late being in quotation marks because he was only 31 in 1998.
In 1999, at age 32 (the same age Burnett will be on opening day), Harnish had one of the finest seasons of his career, going 16-10 with a 3.68 ERA. So far so good, right Yankee fans? Oh yeah, those other four years. After logging 407 innings in 1998-99, Harnisch made only 22 starts in 2000, going 8-6, with a 4.74 ERA, which equated to an ERA+ of a completed average 100. In 2001, at age 34, Harnisch finished his career by making seven starts, going 1-3 with a 6.37 ERA. He never pitched in the Major Leagues again.
The next comp is Stan Williams, who pitched from the late '50's to the early '70's with the Dodgers, Yankees, Indians and Twins. Yankee fans may remember him best as the guy they traded Moose Skowron to the Dodgers for. Like Harnisch, after a couple middling years, Williams broke through and made the All-Star team as a 23 year old in 1960. Also like Harnisch, Williams pitched well, got hurt, and had a comeback at age 31. At that point though, Williams was a "swingman" starting perhaps three to four games a month when needed (often during a doubleheader, for example) and pitching in relief in between - not a role the Yankees have any interest in using Williams in.
When he reached 32, Williams was no longer effective as a starter, and began to pitch exclusively out of the bullpen. At 33, on the 1970 Twins, Williams, pitched 113 innings in 68 relief outings, going 10-1 with a 1.99 ERA. That would be his last effective season though. He pitched poorly in 1971, and was traded to the Cardinals. After 12 innings with St. Louis, he was released. In 1972, he was signed by the Angels, where he didn't pitch in the majors, was released and picked up by the Red Sox, where he had a 6.23 ERA in three relief outings. After Boston released him, Williams did not pitch in the majors again.
Blue Jay postseason hero Juan Guzman is the next most similar. Like Harnisch and Williams, Guzman pitched in one all-star game, as a 25 year old in 1992. Guzman was similar to Burnett in that he threw quite hard, struck out a lot of people, and had bouts with wildness. After battling injuries and some ineffectiveness in the mid 1990's, Guzman was having a bit of a comeback at age 31, pitching effectively for the Blue Jays, when he was traded to the Orioles in a midseason deal. Guzman continued to be fairly effective that year, finishing 10-16, but with a 4.35 ERA, and perhaps most importantly, he made 33 starts, the first time he made over 30 since 1993.
In 1999, Guzman joined Harnisch on the Reds in a midseason trade that brought the Orioles future closer BJ Ryan. Guzman had been pitching fairly well for the Orioles, with a 4.18 ERA in the tough AL East. Upon the trade to the Reds though, the 32 year old Guzman started pitching his best baseball since his glory days with Toronto. In 77 innings over 12 starts, Guzman went 6-3 with a 3.03 ERA, along with 60 strikeouts and 21 walks, helping the Reds tie the Mets for the National League wild card. Based on that performance, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays signed Guzman to a two year, $12M contract. One and two thirds innings and eight earned runs into that contract, Guzman, at 33, blew out his arm and never pitched in the major leagues again.
Erik Hanson had pitched from 1988-1993 the Mariners, and often quite effectively, but the Mariners poor offense never gave Hanson the win-loss record he deserved. After one year with the Reds, Hanson joined the Red Sox in 1995, as general manager Dan Duquette was not worried about Hanson's win-loss record, and instead focused on his good strikeout and walk rates. His lone year with the Sox turned out to be one of his best. He went 15-5 on that division winning Sox team and, as a 30 year old, made his only all-star team. A couple bad starts down the stretch raised his ERA to a still-acceptable 4.24, especially when accounting for Fenway and AL East inflation. Hanson turned this success into a three year contact from the Blue Jays. In year one of the contract, Hanson was durable but only occasionally effective, going 13-17, with a 5.41 ERA. More troublingly, his walk rate nearly doubled - after a career of consistently walking fewer than 2.5 men per nine innings, his walk rate ballooned to nearly 4.5 in 1996.
Hanson then lost that durability in 1997, at age 32. In his final two seasons, he pitched only 64 innings, giving up 47 earned runs, a 6.61 ERA.
Need I go on? The rest of the similar players are Kirk McCaskill, Wilson Alvarez, Mike Boddicker, Jose Guzman, and Hideo Nomo. Now, recall that Burnett is signed through his age 36 season, Of the nine retired players on Burnett's top 10 list, only one, Nomo, even HAD an age 36 season. The nine combined to go to zero all-star teams in their age 32-36 seasons. The best of the group was Nomo, who won 16 games both as a 32 and 33 year old, before posting a 7.60 ERA the next two years over 184 innings.
--
Now certainly, we can't guarentee Burnett will be out of baseball in 2013, the last year of his contract. Sports medicine is always improving, and players are staying healthy longer than ever. And, of course, similarity scores are only numbers. While some of this group, like Harnisch and Nomo, bear strong similarities to Burnett, others, like Randy Wolf, certainly do not. But given the risk against the relative reward - Burnett, again, is a zero time all-star, has once won more than 12 games, and has twice made 30 starts - it seems like an $82 million question mark.
Even beyond that risk, did the Yankees "need" Burnett? Despite all of the talk about their tremendous offense, they had as much trouble scoring runs in 2008 as they did preventing them. In the 14 team American League, the Yankees were 7th in runs allowed, and 7th in runs scored. Replacing Jason Giambi with Nick Swisher isn't going to solve any of the issue with scoring runs, but it should help prevent a few more. After signing Sabathia to replace the retired Mussina, the "smart" move would've been to use all of that extra money to make a run at Mark Teixeira, an elite player who is likely to be a Hall of Famer. Instead, they signed a second-tier starting pitcher who, despite the hype, has never been all that close to elite. Sabathia brings the Yankees closer to the Rays and Red Sox in the AL East. Burnett will help them continue to be baseball's most overhyped (and overpaid) underachievers.
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
2008 World Series Preview
The Rays seem to be the consensus pick to win the Series this year. If you're looking for someone to go against the conventional wisdom, keep looking. Top to bottom, the Rays are simply the better team. Better starting pitching, bullpen, defense, lineup, speed, coaching, cowbell - you name it, the Rays do it better than the Phillies.
The official prediction here is that the Rays win in 5. The Phils take Game One in a pitchers duel, with Hamels outpitching Kazmir. It is with some trepidation I pick that, because the Phillies do struggle mightily with lefthanded pitching. Still, Hamels has been excellent all season and into the postseason, and he will get the Phillies off on the right foot. Unfortunately for them, it will be downhill from there.
The Rays will take Game Two, behind "Big Game" James Shields. Though I have to ask, what exactly has Shields done to get the nickname "Big Game"? He's pitched pretty well in the playoffs, but this isn't exactly Orel Hershiser in 1988 or Randy Johnson in 2001 we're talking about.
In Games Thee and Four, we go back to Philadelphia, and the Rays will spend those two nights teeing off on Jamie Moyer and Joe Blanton in that tiny little ballpark. My prediction is double-digit runs in both of those games. It will be controversial when, down two games to one, Charlie Manual decides to stick with Blanton, rather than going back to his ace Hamels. Evan Longoria has a three homer game in this one, to put himself in the lead for the MVP award.
In Game 5, the Philly fans have turned on their own team, booing them out of the gate, leading to such a lackluster performance that not even Cole Hamels can deliver a win. The Rays win this one 3-0 in a game that never actually feels as close as it is. David Price strikes out the side in the bottom of the ninth to seal the victory.
After the game, disgusted by the constant booing and taunts of the Philly fans, Jimmy Rollins demands a trade, Pat Burrell leaves as a free agent, and the Phanatic isn't seen in late October for another 15 years.
The official prediction here is that the Rays win in 5. The Phils take Game One in a pitchers duel, with Hamels outpitching Kazmir. It is with some trepidation I pick that, because the Phillies do struggle mightily with lefthanded pitching. Still, Hamels has been excellent all season and into the postseason, and he will get the Phillies off on the right foot. Unfortunately for them, it will be downhill from there.
The Rays will take Game Two, behind "Big Game" James Shields. Though I have to ask, what exactly has Shields done to get the nickname "Big Game"? He's pitched pretty well in the playoffs, but this isn't exactly Orel Hershiser in 1988 or Randy Johnson in 2001 we're talking about.
In Games Thee and Four, we go back to Philadelphia, and the Rays will spend those two nights teeing off on Jamie Moyer and Joe Blanton in that tiny little ballpark. My prediction is double-digit runs in both of those games. It will be controversial when, down two games to one, Charlie Manual decides to stick with Blanton, rather than going back to his ace Hamels. Evan Longoria has a three homer game in this one, to put himself in the lead for the MVP award.
In Game 5, the Philly fans have turned on their own team, booing them out of the gate, leading to such a lackluster performance that not even Cole Hamels can deliver a win. The Rays win this one 3-0 in a game that never actually feels as close as it is. David Price strikes out the side in the bottom of the ninth to seal the victory.
After the game, disgusted by the constant booing and taunts of the Philly fans, Jimmy Rollins demands a trade, Pat Burrell leaves as a free agent, and the Phanatic isn't seen in late October for another 15 years.
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