The Minnesota Twins stink right now. Through 38 games, they are 12-26, the worst record in the majors, and frankly, they're lucky to even be there. Their Pythagorean record is a pathetic 10-28. They've scored 3.13 runs per game, fewest in the majors by 1/3 of a run, despite the fact that every National League team - even the bad ones- have to bat a pitcher. They countered that by allowing 5.5 runs per game the MOST in the majors. That's .13 more than the Houston Astros, and .99 more than the Orioles, who have allowed the next most. They have 18 home runs, the fewest in baseball. Their pitchers walk the most batters, but strike out the second fewest.
Injuries, particularly the one to Joe Mauer, have gotten a lot of attention, but this team is a lot more than a healthy Mauer and a resurgent Justin Morneau away from contention. This is a team that has gradually gotten older and less talented since Bill Smith took over for Terry Ryan in October 2007 until reaching the point they are right now.
In the fall of 2007, ace pitcher Johan Santana was a year away from free agency, and it was clear that the Twins were not going to be able to resign him. They were entertaining offers from every big market club. An offer from the Red Sox which included Jon Lester and Justin Masterson was turned down because it didn't include Jacoby Ellsbury. An offer from the Yankees that included Jose Tabata and Phil Hughes was turned down because it didn't include Ian Kennedy. Waiting out the Red Sox and Yankees and trying to play them against each other turned into a misplay, as both teams went other directions to prepare for the 2008 season, leaving the New York Mets offer the last on the table.
For Santana, a two time Cy Young Award pitcher and arguably the best pitcher alive in 2007 when the trade happened, Smith came away with this package from the Mets: Deolis Guerra, Kevin Mulvey, Philip Humber and Carlos Gomez. Despite his injury and his common inclusion among the Mets group of overpaid, underachieving veterans, Santana has a 14.4 WAR since the deal, while it's pretty clear the Twins did not get that kind of value in return.
How much value did they get? Well, Lets break down the pieces:
--Deolis Guerra is in his third year at Double A New Britain, and currently has a 9.85 ERA.
--Philip Humber had a -.2 WAR in 13 relief appearances before the Twins decided they had seen enough of him and let him go as a free agent after the 2009 season. In the early part of 2011, he has been the White Sox best starter.
--Kevin Mulvey's Twin career lasted 1.1 innings, where he gave up 4 runs (WAR of -.2), before he was traded to the Diamonbacks (as the player to be named later) for reliever Jon Rauch. Rauch actually pitched quite well in his year and a half with the Twins, registering a 2.82 ERA in 76 games, good for a 1.9 WAR.
--Carlos Gomez was the centerpiece of the deal, a speedy centerfield prospect. Gomez did not hit consistently in his two years with the Twins, finishing with a .248/.293/.352 line. His defense, while inconsistent, was good enough to give him an aggregate 3.0 WAR. This was enough for the Brewers to be convinced to trade headaches, sending Shortstop JJ. Hardy to the Twins. Hardy was serviceable in his year with the Twins, going .268/.320/.394, good for 1.3 WAR, while Gomez has still not figured out how to get on based consistently in Milwaukee (WAR of .7 since the trade). After one year, Hardy was sent along with Brendan Harris (acquired in the Matt Garza trade, see below), for Jim Hoey and Brett Jacobson. Hoey, in 10 appearances before being designated for assignment last week, had a .375/.432/.725 line against him, good for a -.7 WAR. Jacobson is in Double A, walking more batters than he is striking out. Meanwhile, Hardy has 5 extra base hits in only 40 AB for Baltimore (.9 WAR in very limited play), while current Twins starting SS Alexi Casilla has only 4 in 84 AB.
A few weeks earlier that same offseason, Smith traded Matt Garza, a young talented prospect with a reputation for being temperamental and hard to coach to the Rays along with shortstop Jason Bartlett in exchange for outfielder Delmon Young, a young, talented prospect with a reputation for being temperamental and hard to coach, along with utility infielder Brendan Harris and outfielder Jason Pridie.
The trade made sense on paper. The Twins had other young pitchers such as Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey, and had to assume they'd get at least one pitcher in any Santana deal, and needed outfield help. Meanwhile, the Rays had Carl Crawford, Elijah Dukes and BJ Upton, and were tired of Young's attitude.
Let's break this one down as well:
--Matt Garza, in his 3 years in Tampa, went only 34-31, but had a strong 3.86 in the tough AL East, compiling a 9.5 WAR. Garza was traded this past offseason to the Cubs, for a variety of prospects, so he is still providing a return for the Rays. Jason Bartlett also spent three years as a Ray, going .288/.349/.403, good for a 6.6 WAR.
--Delmon Young has continued to be a work in progress. Still only 25 years old, Young has a .288/.324/.434 so far in his Twins career, though when combined with his poor defense has been good for only a 1.5 WAR. After what appeared to be a breakout year in 2010 (.298/.333/.493), Young has been hurt and ineffective in 2011. Young's problem continues to be his proclivity to swing and miss at curveballs low and away. Last year, having his best season, Young struck out 81 times and walked only 28.
--Harris and Pridie both provided minimal value in their time in Minnesota, totaling WARs of -.5 apiece. Harris was traded to Baltimore in the Hardy/Hoey trade, while Pridie signed with the New York Mets before the 2010 season.
So, if you have your scorecards out, the net of Smith's biggest trades brought them 6 WAR, while they gave up 30.9. Worst of all, the Twins have only one player on their major league roster to show for trading Johan Santana and Matt Garza. This, and not the Mauer/Morneau situation, is why the Twins stink right now. They've had value, and gotten nothing in return for it.
In the interest of fairness, there have been other, minor trades that Smith has made, some of which have gone their way.
--At the 2009 trading deadline, the Twins acquired Carl Pavano from the Cleveland Indians for pitcher Yohan Pino. Pino has since moved on the Blue Jays organization and has not yet pitched in the majors, while Pavano, despite a rough go in 2011 so far, has a 3.8 WAR in his time with the Twins, with a 4.24 ERA in 342 innings. It is fair to question the wisdom of giving Pavano anything more than a one year contract, particularly in light of his strikeout rates, but this trade ended up benefitting the Twins in 2009-2010. (Aggregate +3.9 WAR)
--In the 2009-10 offseason, Smith traded Boof Bonser to the Red Sox for Chris Province. Bonser had a -.2 WAR for the Red Sox, while Province has not pitched in the majors. More importantly, this trade made it impossible for Ron Gardenhire to continue his infuriating trend of continuing to use Bonser in high-profile situations, and then have to convince Bonser that it was "Boooooof" that Twins fans were chanting at him. (Aggregate WAR, somewhere between +.2 and infinity)
-When Jon Rauch was struggling last summer, Smith traded Wilson Ramon and journeyman minor league pitcher Joe Testa to the Nationals for Matt Capps. Capps served effectively as closer last year, and has taken the role again in 2011 with the ineffectiveness of Joe Nathan. Ramos has meanwhile been very effective as the Washington catcher. So, while statistically you can say that the Twins are ahead in this deal, with Capps' 1.4 WAR outpacing that of Ramos' .9, the Twins production at catcher in 2011 has been far BELOW replacement level. If Mauer ends up needing to move off of catcher long-term, the Twins may regret this move. (Aggregate +.5, with a huge asterisk.)
--Also at the 2010 Trade Deadline, the Twins traded Dutch 7'1" minor league reliever Loek Van Mil for Brian Fuentes. Fuentes was effective in 9 appearances before getting hurt, and signed with the A's this offseason. (Aggregate WAR +.6 WAR, though without the awesomeness of having a ridiculously tall relief pitcher in their system).
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So, in total, the Twins have traded 32.5 WAR in exchange for 11.8. More importantly the Twins have very little to show for these deals, getting no present production in exchange for Johan Santana, and inconsistent production in exchange for Matt Garza. Combined with Smith's ineffectiveness at compiling organizational depth, particularly at catcher and in the middle infield, it is likely that he's going to be on the hot seat in the coming months. In an organization that accentuates stability, any decision on Bill Smith will be heavily considered. And it's fair to call this unfair, if this does turn into his first losing season in four years running the club. However, if the Twins do fall out of contention, it will be important to see what kind of return Smith can get on some of his veteran talent.
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Of course, it's not clear that Smith has any idea how to rebuild his baseball team. One of his most infamous quotes is discussed in brief here at the brilliant, defunct "Fire Joe Morgan" page.
Side note: Statistics, including WAR, are from baseball-reference.com. I know some don't care for B-R's WAR calculations. I find them to be quite accurate for pitchers, a little bit more inconsistent for position players, particularly because of the way they rate defense. For the case of this exercise though, fangraphs and everywhere else aren't going to have numbers that deviate much from the point here. Since the most valuable aspects of the trade are pitchers Garza and Santana, I went with B-R.
Monday, May 16, 2011
Saturday, May 07, 2011
Prospect Debut: Julio Teheran
One day after Eric Hosmer debuted with the Royals, the Atlanta Braves have called up #5 prospect Julio Teheran (minor league numbers). The 20-year old will start tonight's game against the Philadelphia Phillies.
Unlike Hosmer, who the Royals hope will take a permanent place in their lineup, Teheran's appearance will be one-and-done. The Braves had a rainout on Tuesday, forcing them to play a double header on Wednesday. Not wanting to use Tommy Hanson or Tim Hudson on short rest this early in the season, the Braves will turn to Teheran for the spot start, and will return him to the minors after the game no matter the outcome.
Teheran has pitched excellently for Gwinnett, but as Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus points out here, it's really sort of by chance that Teheran is getting the nod, since today is his normal turn in the rotation. If the schedule had fallen differently, it is possible that Mike Minor or Rodrigo Lopez, both who have also pitched quite well, would have gotten the start.
I've not yet seen Teheran pitch, so I can only go off of the glowing scouting reports.
On a personal note, Teheran will be the first major leaguer to debut who is younger than my little brother. So this makes me feel sort of old.
Unlike Hosmer, who the Royals hope will take a permanent place in their lineup, Teheran's appearance will be one-and-done. The Braves had a rainout on Tuesday, forcing them to play a double header on Wednesday. Not wanting to use Tommy Hanson or Tim Hudson on short rest this early in the season, the Braves will turn to Teheran for the spot start, and will return him to the minors after the game no matter the outcome.
Teheran has pitched excellently for Gwinnett, but as Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus points out here, it's really sort of by chance that Teheran is getting the nod, since today is his normal turn in the rotation. If the schedule had fallen differently, it is possible that Mike Minor or Rodrigo Lopez, both who have also pitched quite well, would have gotten the start.
I've not yet seen Teheran pitch, so I can only go off of the glowing scouting reports.
On a personal note, Teheran will be the first major leaguer to debut who is younger than my little brother. So this makes me feel sort of old.
Friday, May 06, 2011
Eric Hosmer Called Up
Baseball America's #8 Prospect, Eric Hosmer, was called up last night by the Royals, and is expected to debut today. The Royals expected to leave Hosmer in AAA to get at least 250 at bats, but made the call with him tearing up the PCL with a .439/.525/.582 after only 118 PA's.
The decision to pull the trigger on Hosmer was undoubtedly helped along by the failure of Kila Ka'aihue, batting .195/.295/.317 with only two home runs. Ka'aihue has put up excellent minor league umbers, but scouts were never really convinced. I'm hoping Ka'aihue gets another chance at some point, as it's not hard to envision him having a Kevin Millar type career. Millar was another patient yet unathletic 1B who put up excellent minor league numbers before getting a full time chance. That's the problem, though, with guys who are fringy in the tools department - they're simply not going to get the same number of chances as someone like Alex Gordon, so they need to seize the opportunity when they get it. Ka'aihue did not, so Shane Victorino's status as the best Hawaiian in baseball is safe.
Hosmer was the #3 pick in the 2008 draft out of high school. He struggles mightily in 2009, but after getting laser eye surgery, he was one of the best players in the minor leagues in 2010. While it might sound like rushing it to call a 21 year old who doesn't even have 350 plate appearances above single A up to the majors, Hosmer is a special talent, and the Royals are trying to keep pace with the Indians in the AL Central.
One statement of caution in regards to his 2011 outlook. Hosmer was batting .506 on balls in play in AAA. Of course, part of that is his being the best player on the field, but that's entirely unsustainable. Recalculating his BABIP to a still-excellent .354, Hosmer's stat line goes to .316/.424/.459. With that in mind, and factoring his 2010 stats as well, I'd expect something along the lines of .285/.365/.420 this year. As his power grows in the future, Hosmer's excellent approach, coupled with pitchers being less willing to give him anything to hit hard, will result in him walking 100+ times per year, and I see his long term upside as .300/.435/.570 type - certainly All-Star level production.
The decision to pull the trigger on Hosmer was undoubtedly helped along by the failure of Kila Ka'aihue, batting .195/.295/.317 with only two home runs. Ka'aihue has put up excellent minor league umbers, but scouts were never really convinced. I'm hoping Ka'aihue gets another chance at some point, as it's not hard to envision him having a Kevin Millar type career. Millar was another patient yet unathletic 1B who put up excellent minor league numbers before getting a full time chance. That's the problem, though, with guys who are fringy in the tools department - they're simply not going to get the same number of chances as someone like Alex Gordon, so they need to seize the opportunity when they get it. Ka'aihue did not, so Shane Victorino's status as the best Hawaiian in baseball is safe.
Hosmer was the #3 pick in the 2008 draft out of high school. He struggles mightily in 2009, but after getting laser eye surgery, he was one of the best players in the minor leagues in 2010. While it might sound like rushing it to call a 21 year old who doesn't even have 350 plate appearances above single A up to the majors, Hosmer is a special talent, and the Royals are trying to keep pace with the Indians in the AL Central.
One statement of caution in regards to his 2011 outlook. Hosmer was batting .506 on balls in play in AAA. Of course, part of that is his being the best player on the field, but that's entirely unsustainable. Recalculating his BABIP to a still-excellent .354, Hosmer's stat line goes to .316/.424/.459. With that in mind, and factoring his 2010 stats as well, I'd expect something along the lines of .285/.365/.420 this year. As his power grows in the future, Hosmer's excellent approach, coupled with pitchers being less willing to give him anything to hit hard, will result in him walking 100+ times per year, and I see his long term upside as .300/.435/.570 type - certainly All-Star level production.
Thursday, May 05, 2011
Running Commentary - Cinco de Mayo Live Blog
1:30: It's time for some Thursday afternoon baseball! The Angels and Red Sox played until about 2:30 in the morning, so we're back after about 11 hours of rest. We found out that the Red Sox have placed Dan Wheeler and Bobby Jenks on the disabled list with various maladies. Of course, it's not at all suspicious that the two pitchers who have been the worst performers on the team so fart this year are placed on the DL on a day where the Red Sox need bullpen reinforcements.
1:35: Looks like Dustin Pedroia is getting his first off day of the year. Pedroia has been slumping a bit recently - since April 17th he is 11 for 66 without an extra base hit, capped by a round 0 for 6 last night. This adds to why I believe that, despite rumors, Marco Scutaro will not be traded. The Red Sox love the flexibility of being able to give any of their infielders a day off, and, because of the flexibility of Lowrie and Youkilis, still field a very good lineup. Throw in Lowrie's injury history, and keeping Scutaro on the payroll seems very sensible.
1:40: Nice single by Howie Kendrick up the middle on a pretty good curveball low and away. After years of hearing about how Kendrick was a "future batting champion," he's off to a very good .296/.371/.520 start. The increase in his walk rate from barely over 3% for his career to 9% this year is playing a big part.
1:48: The Red Sox do a lot of things right, especially in regards to their statistical analysis. However, over they years, they seem to have insisted on a "fast guy bats leadoff" strategy. Ellsbury, Lugo, Crisp, even going back to Johnny Damon. JD Drew has the skills that any stathead would want in a leadoff man. He works deep counts, gets on base, and presents enough extra base power to be dangerous, but doesn't hit so many homers that you would feel that they're "wasted" with nobody on base. At age 27, Ellsbury has a .343 career OBP. This is the player he is - he's a useful player to have on your team, but it's not a good enough number for your leadoff hitter, and Ellsbury is to the point where it's time to stop talking about potential.
1:59: Mark Trumbo leads AL rookies with 5 homers, but that ratio of 2 walks to 25 HRs is going to make it tough for him to see good pitches. Trumbo went .301/.368/.577 at AAA Salt Lake last year, with 58 walks, so he does seem to have some selectivity. No reason to count him out because of a low early season OBP, but he needs to make an adjustment. He also has a really awesome birthday going for him.
2:10: The Sox 2005 draft produced a fascinating class. Originally, Craig Hansen was the hot prospect, and flamed out. Clay Buchholz pitched the no-hitter and Jacoby Ellsbury was the spark plug in late 2007. In 2008, Buchholz and Ellsbury struggled, and Lowrie came on strong in the second half. In '09, Ellsbury was very good, Lowrie got hurt, and Buchholz was inconsistent. In '10, Ellsbury got hurt early, Buchholz was excellent, and Lowrie had a very good last two months. So far in 2011, Lowrie's been great, while Buchholz and Ellsbury have battled inconsistency. My rambling, incoherent point? The've gotten good play out of all three, but never at the same time.
2:22: Should a guy with a career line of .295/.400/.486 over 16 years with close to 400 career SB get some Hall of Fame consideration? Sounds like it, but I'm not ready to make that case for Bobby Abreu, when we can't even get Tim Raines into the Hall.
2:40: Mark Trumbo with the walk, which is good. Then he got caught stealing, which is not good. When you're having trouble getting on base, getting thrown out when you DO get on base is a poor strategy.
2:46: Don't let the stutter he's developed fool you - Peter Gammons is as awesome as ever. How many other guys would give in game commentary featuring a statistical comparison of Bobby Abreu and Johnny Damon, and then later a discussion of the future of the Angels outfield situation when Mike Trout arrives. Don't get me wrong, Jerry Remy is fantastic, and Dennis Eckersley is fun, but nobody gives the type of analysis that Gammons does. We Red Sox fans are spoiled.
2:48: Great example there of Ellsbury not being a good defensive CF. Mike Cameron gets to that ball, and the Red Sox are out of the inning. Instead, Ellsbury started back on a 140 foot pop up. His speed makes up for some of his terrible reads, but way too many of those flares into short center field turn into hits against the Red Sox.
2:51: Two singles later, and Ellsbury not getting to that ball really stand out. The commentary will be about Lackey, and he hasn't been sharp, but anyone who pitches to contact needs help behind him.
2:54: Atchison has started to warm up in the bullpen, but Francona may just need to leave Lackey in to take his lumps. Sometimes it's not your day, and there just aren't enough arms in the bullpen.
3:08: A two run homer from Trumbo runs Lackey from the game. After three straight very good starts, Lackey was not at all sharp today. The bullpen will need to get 15 outs. Not what the Sox were looking for after the 13 inning game last night.
3:15: This is turning into a little league game. The Red Sox should be a little bit embarrassed. How in the world is that a hit for Aybar? I can see crediting him with the RBI, but he hit a routine grounder to Gonzalez.
3:17: Rip to rightfield by Kendrick. Atchison may have to go the rest of this one, even if the Angels score another 15 runs.
3:23: Things go from bad to worse. Ortiz hits a fly ball off the monster... and Abreu throws him out at second base.
3:26: Let's check out the games around the league, shall we? David Price has a 4 hit, 10 strikeout game through 8 innings against Toronto, Rays are leading 3-0. Tigers just scored 4 runs in the bottom of the 7th to take a 5-2 lead against the Yankees. Homer Bailey had an effective season debut, while the Reds teed off on Brett Myers, Reds are leading 10-4.
3:30: Third double play the Red Sox have grounded into in 5 innings.
3:33: Callaspo with another double. Scott Atchison should be captain of the "guys who look older than they are" team. Otis Nixon and Brian Daubach are also lifetime members.
3:38: Update from Tampa. After 8 and two thirds, one unearned run in, and bases empty, Maddon takes Price out of the game to put in Kyle Farnsworth. Overmanaging much?
4:12: With a 11-0 lead, Rich Thompson should probably throw strikes. Walking two straight guys is not going to inspire the confidence of Mike Scioscia.
1:35: Looks like Dustin Pedroia is getting his first off day of the year. Pedroia has been slumping a bit recently - since April 17th he is 11 for 66 without an extra base hit, capped by a round 0 for 6 last night. This adds to why I believe that, despite rumors, Marco Scutaro will not be traded. The Red Sox love the flexibility of being able to give any of their infielders a day off, and, because of the flexibility of Lowrie and Youkilis, still field a very good lineup. Throw in Lowrie's injury history, and keeping Scutaro on the payroll seems very sensible.
1:40: Nice single by Howie Kendrick up the middle on a pretty good curveball low and away. After years of hearing about how Kendrick was a "future batting champion," he's off to a very good .296/.371/.520 start. The increase in his walk rate from barely over 3% for his career to 9% this year is playing a big part.
1:48: The Red Sox do a lot of things right, especially in regards to their statistical analysis. However, over they years, they seem to have insisted on a "fast guy bats leadoff" strategy. Ellsbury, Lugo, Crisp, even going back to Johnny Damon. JD Drew has the skills that any stathead would want in a leadoff man. He works deep counts, gets on base, and presents enough extra base power to be dangerous, but doesn't hit so many homers that you would feel that they're "wasted" with nobody on base. At age 27, Ellsbury has a .343 career OBP. This is the player he is - he's a useful player to have on your team, but it's not a good enough number for your leadoff hitter, and Ellsbury is to the point where it's time to stop talking about potential.
1:59: Mark Trumbo leads AL rookies with 5 homers, but that ratio of 2 walks to 25 HRs is going to make it tough for him to see good pitches. Trumbo went .301/.368/.577 at AAA Salt Lake last year, with 58 walks, so he does seem to have some selectivity. No reason to count him out because of a low early season OBP, but he needs to make an adjustment. He also has a really awesome birthday going for him.
2:10: The Sox 2005 draft produced a fascinating class. Originally, Craig Hansen was the hot prospect, and flamed out. Clay Buchholz pitched the no-hitter and Jacoby Ellsbury was the spark plug in late 2007. In 2008, Buchholz and Ellsbury struggled, and Lowrie came on strong in the second half. In '09, Ellsbury was very good, Lowrie got hurt, and Buchholz was inconsistent. In '10, Ellsbury got hurt early, Buchholz was excellent, and Lowrie had a very good last two months. So far in 2011, Lowrie's been great, while Buchholz and Ellsbury have battled inconsistency. My rambling, incoherent point? The've gotten good play out of all three, but never at the same time.
2:22: Should a guy with a career line of .295/.400/.486 over 16 years with close to 400 career SB get some Hall of Fame consideration? Sounds like it, but I'm not ready to make that case for Bobby Abreu, when we can't even get Tim Raines into the Hall.
2:40: Mark Trumbo with the walk, which is good. Then he got caught stealing, which is not good. When you're having trouble getting on base, getting thrown out when you DO get on base is a poor strategy.
2:46: Don't let the stutter he's developed fool you - Peter Gammons is as awesome as ever. How many other guys would give in game commentary featuring a statistical comparison of Bobby Abreu and Johnny Damon, and then later a discussion of the future of the Angels outfield situation when Mike Trout arrives. Don't get me wrong, Jerry Remy is fantastic, and Dennis Eckersley is fun, but nobody gives the type of analysis that Gammons does. We Red Sox fans are spoiled.
2:48: Great example there of Ellsbury not being a good defensive CF. Mike Cameron gets to that ball, and the Red Sox are out of the inning. Instead, Ellsbury started back on a 140 foot pop up. His speed makes up for some of his terrible reads, but way too many of those flares into short center field turn into hits against the Red Sox.
2:51: Two singles later, and Ellsbury not getting to that ball really stand out. The commentary will be about Lackey, and he hasn't been sharp, but anyone who pitches to contact needs help behind him.
2:54: Atchison has started to warm up in the bullpen, but Francona may just need to leave Lackey in to take his lumps. Sometimes it's not your day, and there just aren't enough arms in the bullpen.
3:08: A two run homer from Trumbo runs Lackey from the game. After three straight very good starts, Lackey was not at all sharp today. The bullpen will need to get 15 outs. Not what the Sox were looking for after the 13 inning game last night.
3:15: This is turning into a little league game. The Red Sox should be a little bit embarrassed. How in the world is that a hit for Aybar? I can see crediting him with the RBI, but he hit a routine grounder to Gonzalez.
3:17: Rip to rightfield by Kendrick. Atchison may have to go the rest of this one, even if the Angels score another 15 runs.
3:23: Things go from bad to worse. Ortiz hits a fly ball off the monster... and Abreu throws him out at second base.
3:26: Let's check out the games around the league, shall we? David Price has a 4 hit, 10 strikeout game through 8 innings against Toronto, Rays are leading 3-0. Tigers just scored 4 runs in the bottom of the 7th to take a 5-2 lead against the Yankees. Homer Bailey had an effective season debut, while the Reds teed off on Brett Myers, Reds are leading 10-4.
3:30: Third double play the Red Sox have grounded into in 5 innings.
3:33: Callaspo with another double. Scott Atchison should be captain of the "guys who look older than they are" team. Otis Nixon and Brian Daubach are also lifetime members.
3:38: Update from Tampa. After 8 and two thirds, one unearned run in, and bases empty, Maddon takes Price out of the game to put in Kyle Farnsworth. Overmanaging much?
4:12: With a 11-0 lead, Rich Thompson should probably throw strikes. Walking two straight guys is not going to inspire the confidence of Mike Scioscia.
Wednesday, May 04, 2011
Francisco Liriano's no-hitter, Jason Kubel's winning hit.
As most of the people reading this probably know, Francisco Liriano pitched a no-hitter last night. A strange no-hitter, but a no-hitter nonetheless. Enough (probably too much) has been written about how Liriano wasn't all that outstanding last night, so I really don't think there's a whole lot I can offer. After all, we already knew that in order to pitch a no-hitter you have to be both lucky and good. Sometimes more lucky, sometimes more good. Dave Cameron at Fangraphs has probably the best recap here: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/appreciating-francisco-lirianos-no-hitter/
A subplot from last game that hasn't gotten nearly as much press (which is fair, of course) is that the Twins only won the game 1-0, with the offense provided by Jason Kubel. Kubel is the only guy who has hit consistently for them all season, and he hit a solo home run in the 4th inning, all of the offense the Twins would need.
The Twins have had a lot of things go wrong for them this season. Just about everything, really has been bad. Usually when a team has the worst record in the league, you look at the stats and find out that they've had some bad luck too - not the Twins, who have an expected record of 7-21. They're last in the AL in runs scored, but a lot, and have allowed the most runs, by a lot. They have four more homers than Jose Bautista, one more stolen base than Sam Fuld. They're on pace to score 507 runs this year. Given two weeks against Twins pitching, Ben Zobrist might drive in that many.
Kubel, however, has been a standout. He has a .350/.400/.530 line, giving him an OPS+ 60 points higher than Jim Thome, who is second on the team. For comparison's sake, in 2009 when we were talking about Pablo Sandoval not getting any help from the rest of the Giants, there were seven other batting title qualifiers on his team--five of them were within that modest 60 point difference. His slugging percentage is 155 points higher than #2, also Thome. Using Bill James' Runs Created formula, the Twins should have 88 runs scored (two runs more than they actually do), and Kubel has created 21 of them. As a team, the Twins have hit .229/.288/324. Twins who aren't Jason Kubel have hit .214/.275/.299. Only one regular in all of baseball in 2010 had an OPS lower than .570. It was Cesar Izturis, having the worst season of his career. Take a moment to think about that. The Twins, without Jason Kubel, are hitting like the the worst season of Cesar Izturis's career.
To have an entire team hitting at such a historically bad level, you have to have some bad luck. Indeed, Joe Mauer wasn't healthy in the few games he did play, Justin Morneau is recovering from a concussion, and Delmon Young's follow up to his supposed breakout season has been a disaster. This hasn't just been bad luck, though. The Twins went into the season with a middle infield of Alexi Casilla (.194/.253/.284) and Tsuyoshi Nishioka (.208/.269/.250 before getting hurt). Knowing that Mauer was an injury risk, they nevertheless went into the season with Drew Butera (.100/.151/140, not a misprint) as the backup. So, for all of the talk about the Twins injury problems, it's a poorly constructed team. Every team has injuries, not every team collapses from them.
In the long run, I expect Morneau to return to form and Young to stop being so terrible. Danny Valencia and Michael Cuddyer are probably better than they've played as well. Throw in eventually having a healthy Joe Mauer, and the Twins will easily blow away that 507 runs pace. They won't score enough to make up for their mediocre starting pitching, though. It may be early, but I'm comfortable making the call now - unless major roster changes are made, the Twins aren't going to win more than they lose, never mind make a playoff run. So let Twins fans have Liriano's no-hitter without spoiling the fun. There isn't going to be a whole lot else to cheer about this year.
A subplot from last game that hasn't gotten nearly as much press (which is fair, of course) is that the Twins only won the game 1-0, with the offense provided by Jason Kubel. Kubel is the only guy who has hit consistently for them all season, and he hit a solo home run in the 4th inning, all of the offense the Twins would need.
The Twins have had a lot of things go wrong for them this season. Just about everything, really has been bad. Usually when a team has the worst record in the league, you look at the stats and find out that they've had some bad luck too - not the Twins, who have an expected record of 7-21. They're last in the AL in runs scored, but a lot, and have allowed the most runs, by a lot. They have four more homers than Jose Bautista, one more stolen base than Sam Fuld. They're on pace to score 507 runs this year. Given two weeks against Twins pitching, Ben Zobrist might drive in that many.
Kubel, however, has been a standout. He has a .350/.400/.530 line, giving him an OPS+ 60 points higher than Jim Thome, who is second on the team. For comparison's sake, in 2009 when we were talking about Pablo Sandoval not getting any help from the rest of the Giants, there were seven other batting title qualifiers on his team--five of them were within that modest 60 point difference. His slugging percentage is 155 points higher than #2, also Thome. Using Bill James' Runs Created formula, the Twins should have 88 runs scored (two runs more than they actually do), and Kubel has created 21 of them. As a team, the Twins have hit .229/.288/324. Twins who aren't Jason Kubel have hit .214/.275/.299. Only one regular in all of baseball in 2010 had an OPS lower than .570. It was Cesar Izturis, having the worst season of his career. Take a moment to think about that. The Twins, without Jason Kubel, are hitting like the the worst season of Cesar Izturis's career.
To have an entire team hitting at such a historically bad level, you have to have some bad luck. Indeed, Joe Mauer wasn't healthy in the few games he did play, Justin Morneau is recovering from a concussion, and Delmon Young's follow up to his supposed breakout season has been a disaster. This hasn't just been bad luck, though. The Twins went into the season with a middle infield of Alexi Casilla (.194/.253/.284) and Tsuyoshi Nishioka (.208/.269/.250 before getting hurt). Knowing that Mauer was an injury risk, they nevertheless went into the season with Drew Butera (.100/.151/140, not a misprint) as the backup. So, for all of the talk about the Twins injury problems, it's a poorly constructed team. Every team has injuries, not every team collapses from them.
In the long run, I expect Morneau to return to form and Young to stop being so terrible. Danny Valencia and Michael Cuddyer are probably better than they've played as well. Throw in eventually having a healthy Joe Mauer, and the Twins will easily blow away that 507 runs pace. They won't score enough to make up for their mediocre starting pitching, though. It may be early, but I'm comfortable making the call now - unless major roster changes are made, the Twins aren't going to win more than they lose, never mind make a playoff run. So let Twins fans have Liriano's no-hitter without spoiling the fun. There isn't going to be a whole lot else to cheer about this year.
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