Tom Milone to Debut Saturday!

I've discussed Washington National's prospect Tom Milone in this space a few times, and we have gotten word today that he will be recalled in order to take the space of Jordan Zimmermann in the Nat's rotation! Milone is scheduled to make his major league debut on Saturday against the Mets. We will see how his assortment of slow, slower and slowest curveballs work against a major league lineup. (Shhh, this is not the time for Mets jokes, this is a happy time).

Let's go Tom!

Mike Trout Makes Me Look S-M-R-T

Ok, so usually when I post something about how someone should play more, or is better than you think, they immediately put up a stink bomb. The most obvious case this year was Madison Bumgarner having the worst starting pitching line of the year the day I posted that he was much better than his win-loss record. I'd been right a couple times, like when I talked about Desmond Jennings, but usually I make bold pronouncements and end up with egg on my face. So yesterday, when I posted about Mike Trout deserving more playing time, my assumption was that he'd start and go 0 for 5 with 3 strikeouts and ground into two double plays.

He didn't.

Trout did get the start last night, batting 7th against the Mariners. When Trout came up with the bases empty and one out in the second inning off of fellow rookie Anthony Vazquez, he hit a solo home run to deep LF to give the Angels a 1-0 lead. When he came up in the fourth inning with two on and one out, he hit a three run homer to give the Angels a 4-0 lead.

Two plate appearances, two home runs, driving in all four Angel runs.

Trout came up again in the 5th, with the game starting to get a bit out of hand. He walked with the bases loaded off of reliever Jeff Gray to "drive" in Torii Hunter to make it a 7-2 game, and scored on a Maicer Izturis double that made the score 10-2. He grounded out in the 7th and struck out in the ninth, giving him a game line of 2 for 4 with 2 homers, 3 runs, 5 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K, and a WPA of +.338.

Trout now has a season line of .246/.306/.523. He wakes up with a slugging percentage higher than Mark Teixeira or Carlos Quentin. It's a very small sample, but we don't really have any evidence that he isn't really really good. It isn't about the future. Trout gives them the best chance to sneak past the Rangers into the playoffs this year.

Keep your eye on that lineup card tonight.

Mike Trout Sits Again. Angels Lose Again.

In four important division games since Friday, the Angels are 1-3. I thought I'd point out an interesting trend I noticed:

Record when Mike Trout starts: 1-0
Record when Mike Trout doesn't start: 0-3

Therefore, my incredibly oversimplified analysis of the situation is that the Angels are now incapable of winning games without Mike Trout.

Hey, we still use pitcher wins, right? Aren't Trout Wins just as legitimate? Aren't they?

No, of course not. Whether a batter is in a game that his team wins is even MORE prone to luck than the starting pitcher. The batter only gets abour 4 or 5 at bats in a game, plus however many defensive plays he may be involved in. A starting pitcher will usually be somewhere between 25-30 batters faced. A batter could go 4 for 4 with 4 home runs, and still lose 15-4 if everyone else on his team stinks. Pitcher wins are dumb. Batter wins are way, way dumber.

Still, the fact that not starting Mike Trout probably isn't the reason the Angels keep losing when they don't start him doesn't mean they shouldn't be starting him. (Did I put enough negatives in that sentence for you? Did it hurt your head? See, that's how I feel when I read about pitcher wins. Feel free to proceed).

There's a tool called "Win Probablity Added" going around the stat community. It does exactly what it says - measures each thing you do on the field and how much it changed your team's chances of winning.

I'm not a huge fan of the tool as a judge of "value" - it's kind of like RBI for us stat nerds, considering the situation and not the event. A player who hits a home run in the 8th inning of a tie game didn't do anything more valuable than the one who hits a home run to lead off the game, but it will obviously change the probability more. Because of this, it falsely inflates the "value" of closers, and devalues the value of starting pitchers who are on teams with a good offense - C.C. Sabathia giving up 1 run in 8 innings and winning 9-1 pitched just as well as Jered Weaver giving up 1 run in 8 innings and winning 2-1. FanGraphs directly states that it has no predictive value, and that there are better stats to use for raw player evaluations.

What WPA does well, on the other hand, is enhance the narrative of individual games. Joe Posnanski gives a nice post about that here, discussing the top 10 games by WPA.

(Aside. That #10 game, where Dwight Evans hit a home run to tie the game in the 8th inning, and then won it in the 10th, is my favorite non-playoff game in my Red Sox watching lifetime, and will be getting a follow-up post.)

Looking at the WPA for some of the great games in history is pretty fascinating. For example, I remember watching Game 4 of the 2001 World Series - the game where the Yankees beat the Diamondbacks with two home runs of Byung-hyn Kim, first by Tino Martinez in the 9th inning, then by Derek Jeter in the 10th. That's one of the most memorable game endings in recent history, but it's not what I remember it for. Nope, I remember that three times in that game, Tony Womack led off his inning with a hit. He hit singles in the first and third inning, and a double in the fifth. In EACH of those circumstances, Bob Brenly had Craig Counsell bunt. And, in EACH of those innings, the Diamondbacks failed to score any runs. I remember thinking how stupid it seemed that Brenly would waste all of those outs. Well, WPA confims it - those sacrifice bunts increased the Yankees chances of winning by 2%, each. WPA is not done retroactively - it doesn't recalculate based on what Martinez and Jeter did later on. It simply tells us what the consequences of a play are on the game and how they change the game at that time. What they tell us, in this situation, is that Brenly killed his team. Counsell had a .359 OBP in 2001 (from 2000-2005, it was .348, so that's not fluky). So, it stands to reason that, in three plate appearances, Counsell would get on base once. Or, in other words, NOT MAKE AN OUT once. Instead, because of Brenly's strategy, he made an out all three times. On purpose. We can't say for sure if the Diamondbacks lost because of that, but we know that their bad strategy didn't help them and that they lost by one run.

Wait, wait, I thought we were talking about Mike Trout? Where is this going, why are you writing about a playoff game from 10 years ago?!

Sorry, I got a little carried away there. I still can't think of Bob Brenly without thinking about that game.

Anyway. Mike Trout. WPA. Right.


On Friday, the Angels lost to the Rangers 11-7 and fell three games behind. They had been losing 11-0, but the back end of the Ranger bullpen apparently decided to give them a sporting chance. What did the non-Trout Angels' outfielders do?

LF Vernon Wells: 2-3, 2B, R; WPA +.002
CF Peter Borjous: 1-5, CS; WPA -.084
RF: Torii Hunter: 1-3; WPA -.061
TOTAL: .364/364/.455; WPA -.143
Recap: It's fair to use this as an example of why WPA isn't so hot sometimes. The Angels lost this game because Dan Haren stunk.
Trout Effect: Minimal. Though he got into the game late as a pinch hitter, going 1-2 with a single, the outfield wasn't the reason they lost. The end of the first inning, where Hunter struck out while Borjous was caught stealing while it was still a 0-0 game is why the WPA for the group is so bad.


On Saturday, Mike Trout started, and the Angels won 8-4. As a team, they hit 5 homers and moved back to two games behind.

LF Vernon Wells: 2-4, HR, 3B, BB, R, RBI; WPA +.127
CF Peter Borjous: 1-5, HR, SB, RBI, 2 R; WPA +.035
RF Mike Trout: 2-4, HR, R, RBI; WPA +.037
TOTAL: .385/.429/1.231; WPA +.199
Recap: Howie Kendrick and Bobby Wilson homered too. It's fair to say C.J. Wilson wasn't sharp in this one. Still, the Angel outfielders played a major role in the one.
Trout Effect: MAKES HIS TEAMMATES BETTER. KNOWS HOW TO WIN. Yeah, back to earth. He had a very good game, and was one of the reasons the Angels won.


On Sunday, Trout did not start, the Angels lost 9-5 and fell back to three games behind.

LF Vernon Wells: 1-4, RBI; WPA +.006
CF Peter Borjous: 0-4; WPA -.065
RF Torii Hunter: 0-3, BB; WPA -.060
TOTAL: .091/.167/.091; WPA -.119
Recap: The Angels were winning this one until Jered Weaver blew up in the 7th. The +.008 of Wells' two out RBI in the 3rd was largely negated by a pop out in the first with two outs and runners on first and second. Torii Hunter's strikeout in the third with a man on second and one out while leading 2-1 wasn't a highlight either.
Trout Effect: Notable. Despite the final, this was a close game for much of the way. A couple outs made by Hunter and Wells with runners in scoring position allowed Colby Lewis to stay in the game through six, which got the ball to the good part of the Ranger bullpen.


Last night, the Angels lost to the lowly Mariners, 5-3. With the Rangers off, the Angels fall to 3.5 games back. Jokes about the patheticness of the Mariner offense may now be passe. Allowing Dustin Ackley and Mike Carp to settle into the 3/4 spots in the lineup is making a big difference. Their .416 SLG as a team in August is 60 points higher than it was any other month, and their .329 OBP ranks 5th in the American League. Sleeper pick for 2012? Not quite ready to jump on that bandwagon, but with their pitching, getting an average offense can make them a serious contender.

LF Vernon Wells: 1-4, R; WPA -.074
CF Peter Borjous: 1-3; WPA -.146
RF Torii Hunter: 1-4, R; WPA -.052
TOTAL: .283/.283/.283; WPA -.272
Recap: Borjous's line drive double play when it was a 3-3 game in the 7th was a killer in the WPA department. The singles all came early in the game, limiting the WPA.
Trout Effect: Moderate. The guy DOES have a .426 SLG, doesn't he? This looks for the world like the kind of game where they needed an extra base hit to swing the balance.

So, over the last three days, Mike Trout has a WPA of +.037, while the rest of the Angel outfielders are at -.372. As we mentioned about, that has no predictive value, only narrative value. So, maybe we can't conclude that playing Mike Trout more would have helped them. What we do know is that, on the whole, the guys they did play didn't help them.

Potential Impact Callups

It's hard to believe we're already here, but in only three days, it will be September 1. Teams in contention will be racing to set up their playoff rosters, those out of contention will be checking out some of the players who could help them in the future. I just wanted to look at a few of the guys who could make an impact either in the pennant races or playoffs.

Mike Trout, Angels: I've discussed Trout a couple times, and I maintain my belief that he's the #1 "prospect" in baseball. It's possible that Trout will exhaust his rookie status in September, making him ineligible for the 2012 ROY award. If he doesn't, he is the serious favorite. That's not the Angels concern right now, though. Sitting only three games behind the Rangers, Trout may give them the best shot to close that gap.

Trout got the start in only one of the three games in the important series against the Rangers this past weekend, getting the right field nod in Saturday's game. Just by chance, it's the only game in the series the Angels won. Trout also got two at bats after coming in as a pinch hitter in Friday nights game. For the series, he went 3 for 6, with a home run and a strikeout. His impact down the stretch will depend entirely on how much Scioscia plays him.

Jesus Montero, Yankees: Let's all say this together. Jesus. Montero. Is. Not. A. Catcher.

We have that out of the way. It's ok, Yankee fans. Carlos Delgado wasn't a catcher either, no matter how much the early '90's Blue Jays wanted him to be. Delgado hit so much that nobody cared. I don't know if Montero will become the hitter Delgado was, but he'll hit enough that it won't make a difference.

The Yankees overall production at DH this year hasn't been as bad as you probably think. They've hit .247/.331/.432, good for 8th in the AL in OBP and 5th in SLG. However, that number is inflated some by the time spent DH-ing by guys who play other positions. In 21 games, Robinson Cano, Nick Swisher, Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez have gone .256/.351/.512. The "regular" DH, Jorge Posada, has gone .232/.306/.390 at the position. Among the 14 regular DH's, that puts him tied for last in OBP, and 11th in SLG, a number that may be inflated by Yankee Stadium, since 7 of his 9 doubles, and 9 of his 12 home runs are there. Away from the Stadium's short porch, he's hit a paltry .187/.274/.302.

Meanwhile, much has been made of Montero's season. Is he a catcher, is he overrated because of the Yankees, is he better than Posada? Short answers - no, maybe, yes. Despite a drop in production from last year, Montero has hit .289/.348/.465 for Scranton. The lack of power from his first half has been forgotten - since the All-Star Break he's at .287/.353/.559. He's not the #3 prospect in baseball, where he was placed before the season, but he's ready for the majors. The Yankees' insistence on keeping him in the minors has cost them, but shouldn't for much longer. Expect to see him starting on Thursday at the latest.

Trevor Bauer, Diamondbacks: The #3 pick in the 2011 draft may well be the first to debut. Bauer signed early and has dominated since - in six starts and 24 innings across two levels, he has a 2.62 ERA, 30 strikeouts and only 9 walks. There has been some worry about his workload, but he may well get a chance to help the already-excellent Arizona bullpen. I doubt we'll see him start unless there is an obvious opening or the playoff race opens up.

One qualifier - I sincerely hope he doesn't pull a Jonathan Papelbon or Neftali Feliz and dominate so much out of the bullpen that he is made the "future closer." Bauer is worth more as a starter, both to his team and in consideration of his own checkbook.

Matt Moore, Rays: Are the Rays still in contention? Well, they have six games left with the Yankees, and they're 6.5 games behind. So, while it would take a pretty amazing comeback for them to get into the playoffs, it's not out of the realm of possibility. It's also very possible they'll end up with the 3rd best record in the American League and still miss the playoffs.

Moore was the darling of the future's game, and has been dominant since his promotion to Triple A Durham. In 46.2 innings, he has a 1.35 ERA, a 0.943 WHIP, 69 strikeouts, 15 walks and 3 home runs allowed, and he is a southpaw, which makes him a great matchup for the lefty-heavy opponents at the top of the division. If Trout loses rookie status, Moore becomes the front runner for the 2012 award. Unlike Bauer, I don't see Moore being used in the bullpen - he'll either get a couple starts, or be shut down. (Unless I'm wrong, of course. That's happened before.)

A Pair of Friday Morning Links

Some links to share this morning.

First off, I've spent so much time ripping bad sportswriting and analysis in the last couple months, I think it's important to share some from the other end of the spectrum. Joe Posnanski at Sports Illustrated is probably my favorite baseball writer right now. This week, he has made two very strong posts regarding his voting in the MVP race. The first, in an excellent post, Posnanski discusses why he is going to vote for the most productive player for the MVP award.

His follow-up, though, directed at a couple specific criticisms to this approach, is absolutely outstanding. Every writer with a vote for the postseason awards should be forced to read it, and if they disagree, actually attempt to write an intelligent response.


On a completely different, non-baseball related front, I just wanted to link to both North County Public Radio and Vermont Public Radio pages regarding the reinstallation of the Lake Champlain Bridge. A 402 foot center span left from Port Henry, NY just before 6:00 this morning and arriving at Crown Point around 8:00. Close to 9:45, the span was in place to be raised, and it is expected to take anywhere from four to eight hours to connect. Interesting stuff.